According to The Detroit News, Toyota has walked down its '09 global sales estimates by 700k units, from 10.4m vehicles to 9.7m. This is the second forecast downgrade; a tacit admission by the world's largest automaker that the U.S. sales slump will not experience the rapid recovery its native carmakers have been praying for predicting. "[Toyota CEO Katsuaki] Watanabe said he saw as 'fundamental' the slowdown in the U.S. market as soaring gas prices not only crimp car purchases but drives an unprecedented shift in consumer demand from trucks to smaller fuel-efficient models." And just like GM's suits, Toyota's big boss tried to apply a coat of green gloss to the loss. "In his annual outlining of the company's business plan, Watanabe tried to sound an upbeat note by promising green vehicles. He said Toyota will speed up the delivery of a plug-in hybrid — which can be plugged into regular household electrical sockets — initially promised for sometime in 2010, to the end of 2009." Meanwhile, "It is forecasting its first full-year profit decline in seven years as it faces more problems from the weakening U.S. market." 

The Detroit automakers are trimming or eliminating their leasing programs due to plunging resale values and inflated residuals. In fact, in July leases accounted for only 19.7 percent of retail volume for the U.S. auto industry. However, leasing remains the way a lot of automakers use to put someone into an expensive car they really can't afford. And four of the most-commonly leased vehicles in the U.S. are BMWs (7 Series, Z4, 6 Series and X3). Bucking the current trend, sales and marketing VP at BMW Group Financial Services, Daniel DeChristopher, told BusinessWeek "we are still very committed to the leasing business." That's even though 70 percent of off-lease vehicles are returned to BMW Financial to be resold, usually as certified pre-owned cars. BMW is hedging its bet on leasing, though. They're also offering 0.9 percent APR loans during their "gotta unload these '08s before the '09s show up" sale. The top ten most commonly leased vehicles, and the percentage of them leased between January 1 and August 10 this year are:

BMW 7 Series – 85.3 percent
Saab 9-7x – 82.2 percent
Audi A6 – 74.1 percent
BMW Z4 – 70.7 percent
Mercedes E-class – 70 percent
Range Rover – 69.6 percent
BMW 6 Series – 68.6 percent
Audi A4/S4 – 68 percent
BMW X3 – 67.3 percent
Jaguar XJ – 65.8 percent

When Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli was Chief Executive Despot at the Home Despot, he hung his monstrous paycheck on such gimmicky products as the Peter Arnell-inspired ergonomic fire extinguisher. now ensconced in Auburn Hills, Nardelli is banking on the RamBox storage option to move its all-new Ram in the teeth of a stiff anti-truck headwind. And that ain't working out so well. Despite Nardelli's and Co-President Jim Press's relentless "game changer" hype, the Ram Box is not good to go. Automotive News (sub) reports that Dodge has not priced the RamBox yet, but "dealers say they have heard discussions of an option price of $1,600 to $2,100." But the New Chrysler wants dealers to order the option without knowing what it will cost, a limb the dealers aren't eager to walk out on. "Until I've seen the RamBox and how it's priced, you're not going to be getting any orders from me," says one Dodge dealer. "I think the RamBox is going to be a big seller if it's priced reasonably. I don't want a bunch of trucks sitting on my lot without it. What the hell is the problem? Where's it at?" This is probably not the way Chrysler was hoping the RamBox would change the game. "We're trying to get a balance between volume and price," says Marc Seguin, senior manager for Ram marketing. "It's a tough thing to price. We're trying to understand how much volume we can sell." Meanwhile, the dealers are left fuming. "To launch the truck without the RamBox is just ridiculous," says another unhappy pusher-man.

Ford says it's not killing Mercury but their actions indicate otherwise. In the past two years, The Blue Oval Boyz have cut their ranks by 400 dealers, mainly by merging the three brands under one roof in many areas. Automotive News [sub] reports that starting this week, Ford execs will tell the remaining stand-alone Lincoln-Mercury dealers their latest and greatest consolidation plan for rolling them into Ford dealerships. The dealers aren't overly pleased with the prospects, but they see the handwriting on the wall. While Ford says they stand behind the Mercury brand and will give it a new small car, "one Ford insider told Automotive News that company executives want to make it clear to dealers that no major influx of new product is coming for Mercury." Once the dealer consolidation is done, you can just about bet that the Mercury brand will be starved for product, with all of the new models going to Ford or Lincoln. Then it's just a matter of time before Mercury just fades away like DeSoto in the early 60s.

One more time! Maybe even literally. Strangely, GM's told its dealers that revealing the imminent arrival of "employee pricing for all" to the outside world would be a felony. So I guess you can call me Miss Demeanor (you know; if I wasn't a Silverado-loving man's man). Anyway, it's all over the damn web. Reuters reports [here and via Automotive News] that "the offer starts Wednesday, runs until Sept. 2 and applies to all 2008 model year Chevrolet vehicles, according to the dealer, who was not authorized to discuss the GM plan." See? The black ops are only a beat behind. So to speak. And if employee pricing isn't enough to pull in the punters, "the top-selling U.S. automaker will offer cash back on slower-selling light trucks, including the Silverado pickup, said the dealer, who had just been briefed by GM." Top selling? Slower-selling? Careful you don't hurt yourself pulling those punches. Anway, we now have confirmation that ALL GM brands are involved in the fire sale. Oh, and try and guess the Money Factor in a standard GM lease these days. It's 16 percent. Which will apply to the new Malibu on Wednesday.

Auto Motor und Sport reports supercar sales jumped 45 percent between 2002 and 2007, to a record 165k units per year. The German buff book details a study by the Instituts für Automobilwirtschaft (IFA) at the Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Umwelt (HfWU) in Nürtingen-Geislingen. It estimates supercar sales will increase by another 20 percent to 200k units by 2015. The IFA says much of this growth will be driven by newly wealthy criminals and dictators status-seekers in emerging economies like Russia and China. It also credits (blames?) "the spiral of exclusivity." "Many premium manufacturers have lost exclusivity by widening their model ranges. The small-volume firms can offer the exclusivity that is so important for supercar buyers." So although the horsepower wars of the 1990s may have reached their zenith with the 1001 hp Veyron, we can expect a steady stream of four-wheeled unobtainium– with carbon tax surcharges greater than the GNP of Belize.

Automotive Fleet has published their mid-year report of fleet sales, and there are a few surprises to be found. The Crown Vic's place at the top of the list (94.2 percent of sales to fleets) is not one of them. Nor will anyone gasp at the Sebring's (69.9 percent of convertibles and 62.2 percent of sedans) and Avenger's (65.5 percent) rankings. However, the stats show that 56.6 percent of Dodge Calibers went to fleets, as did 49.9 percent of Chevy Impalas. The highest import nameplate: the Mazda6 (59.5 percent) followed by the Suzuki XL7 (53.2 percent) and, believe it or not, the Volvo S40 (48.9 percent). Brands you'd think were naturals for fleets like Hyundai and Kia placed below the 50 percent level. Overall, 21.8 percent of the cars and 20.8 percent of the trucks sold the first half of this year went to fleets. As overall sales drop and inventory builds up, that number will probably grow for the second half. We'll offer a more detailed analysis of fleet sales soon. [Thanks to NoSubstitute for the link]

Automotive News [AN, sub] brings news from the Traverse City auto-exec seminary. Only their headline news is not the real news. AN proclaims "Toyota exec says pickup market will recover." And indeed Robert Carter does just that, in a distinctly vague, Detroit-like way. "We are absolutely confident that the recovery will take place," the GM of ToMoCo USA says, confidently. "It's just arguable when." But the real money shot (or, in this case, not) arrives in Carter's set-up. Before pushing Pollyanna on stage, Carter said he "expects full-size pickup truck sales to total 1.45 million in 2008 — a significant drop from last year's sales of 2.14 million units." Significant is just a word (as is "word"). As for that eventual, arguably-timed pickup pickup, Carter's "not sure what will happen to what he calls the 'recreational user' of pickup trucks — the weekend warrior who uses his pickup to tow a boat or pickup a grill at Home Depot." Uh, if that "non-core" but still sizable demographic doesn't return, what kind of recovery is he talking about? Semi, demi or quasi? Make mine non-fat.  

The Detroit News reports that The People's Republic has a new strategy to combat air pollution: tax the shit out of large cars [paraphrasing]. "The tax on passenger vehicles with engines bigger than 4 liters will be doubled to 40 percent from 20 percent, effective Sept. 1, the Finance Ministry said Wednesday in a statement on its Web site. Those buying vehicles with engines sized from 2 liters up to 4 liters will have to pay a 25 percent tax, up from the current 15 percent, it said." So, Buick's big barges get blasted. Ditto Ford's Chinese Volvos and Lincolns. OK, so both companies sell small cars in China as well, as part of their [mandatory] joint ventures. Only just-auto [sub] reports China's new car market has hit the skids. July sales fell 17 percent. "The Chinese vehicle market has cooled this year under the combined influences of higher inflation (reducing consumers' disposable income), increased petrol prices, the effects of the Sichuan earthquake and generally lower consumer confidence (stock markets are down)." Things don't look so bad year-to-date, but the domestics' Chinese bright spot won't be shining a ray of sunshine on next quarter's financials. Beyond that, the threat of official action to tamp-down the JVs to help the home team looms large. [thanks to autoacct628 for the link]

Given that GM terminated the HUMMER brand not long after its dealers spent millions constructing Quonset hut-style shoppertainment centers, a Saturn showroom makeover may not be welcome news for fans of the ailing "import fighter." But there it is, via The Detroit News' John McCormick. Needless to say, Motown's Big Mac is down with the design re-think. Which, upon careful reading, is no biggie (unless you're looking for an excuse for a junket to Connecticut). "All this research has translated into careful adjustments to the way a Saturn showroom is laid out; how chairs and desks are positioned, how computer monitors are presented, how accessories are presented and so on. For example, the sales desks have no drawers, two chairs on both sides and a computer monitor that is angled so the customer can see it easily. Shoppers are encouraged to surf the internet for competitive deals right in front of the sales person… Overall, the showroom design puts more emphasis on people than cars, which are arrayed to the outside, leaving the center area for seating and displays." Meanwhile… Despite Saturn's latest ad campaign and refreshed Euro-style product line-up, Roger Smith's baby racked-up just 17,603 sales in July. That's down 13.6 percent for the month, -17.9 percent for the year.  

In July, GM, Toyota, Ford, Honda and Chrysler accounted for almost 73 percent of new vehicle sales in the U.S. But individually, how are they doing? To answer that I'm going to start tracking their overall market share and comparing them to each other, plus trending their market shares for 2006, 2007 and 2008. In July, GM held onto 20.5 percent of the market and has a 21.6 percent average market share year to date. Toyota's nipping at GM's heels, though, with 17.4 percent of sales in July and is averaging 16.9 percent of sales so far this year. Ford slipped below Toyota in April, but they're managing to keep Honda at bay so far. Ford's share for July was 14.2 percent against Honda's 12.2 percent; year to date Ford hangs onto 15.3 percent of the market. Honda's 10.8 percent average market share so far this year is still below Chrysler's average 11.4 percent share, but Honda passed Chrysler in May and is well ahead of Chrysler's 8.6 percent share in July. Where will it all end up? Hard to say with today's volatile market, but we'll keep our eyes on it and let you know as and when the music stops.

Ford has canceled a Flex production shift, and the model's chief designer suddenly left the company. Still, as Berkowitz's review points out, the Flex isn't a horrible car. It's simply fighting for market share in the remnants of a burst (SUV) bubble. The Wall Street Journal scolds the whole segment for mediocre mileage, but blames the Flex flop on crashing SUV residual values. "With gas hovering around $4 a gallon, even the crossover category continues to show signs of slowdown, as many consumers looking to replace traditional trucks are experience falling resale value of their old vehicles, freezing buyers out of the crossover market and pushing them to look at options such as compact and midsize cars," says Brian Johnson of Lehman Brothers. Even so, Ford dealers are anxious to get a Flex on the floor. "Dealers think that the product can generate showroom traffic," Ford spokesman Jay Ward tells Automotive News [sub]. "[Customers] may not buy a Flex, but they may buy a Taurus X or an Edge." So the Flex is a highly-advertised vehicle that misses the mark but entices buyers into looking at other moribund models. In other words, the GT's replacement is the Windstar replacement. How great is that?

The crossover– crudely defined as a SUV-styled car– hasn't fared well in the Great Sales Meltdown of 2008. The Wall Street Journal reports that the segment slipped 11 percent from last year. Thanks to a combination of high gas prices, atrocious SUV trade-in/resale values and generally high CUV prices, SUV owners are trading down to cars, rather than across to CUVs. Uh-oh. Carmakers were counting on larger profit margins on those CUV's to keep them afloat in these lean times. Even sales of small and relatively fuel-efficient CUV's (a.k.a. "cute utes") are lackluster. The Toyota RAV4 (12,006) is down 20.7 percent [unadjusted for sales days is how we roll]. Honda's CR-V (17,419) tumbled 15.3 percent. There are a few bright spots in the CUV market: the Nissan Rogue (6,525) and Subaru Forester (5,559). But their combined sales generated about the same volume as the RAV4. The Dodge Journey, at 3,306 sales last month and 26,180 for the year, is already is selling for thousands below MSRP. [BTW, the brand new Ford Flex barely edged its outgoing platform-mate Taurus X, 2,204 vs. 2,034.] Even with gas prices dipping, the CUV genre seems stillborn. GM identified the fourth Lambda-platformed Chevy Traverse (post-Buick Enclave, GMC Acadia and Saturn Outlook) as the only key product launch in North America this fall. Not good on stilts.

GM wants you to know the not-so-very-new-anymore Chevy Malibu's total sales were up 79 sales-adjusted percent in July. The penalty box known as the Chevy Aveo was up 17 percent. The Saturn Aura was up 24 percent. And Cadillac CTS sales were up 38 percent. Those are the adjusted numbers they put in the bold print right at the top of their July sales press release. However, the real story: overall sales were down 26.1 percent (unadjusted). The auto side's overall 12 percent decrease was exacerbated by a whopping 36.4 percent drop on the truck side. Something else that's easy to miss is the word "total" in front of some of the sales numbers (like Malibu above). When GM's spinmeisters talk about great "retail" sales of some models, that's a sure sign that fleet sales made up the bulk of the "total" sales mentioned for other models.

Click here for GM sales press release

(Note:  The numbers in the press release are adjusted for sales days, so they will vary from the unadjusted numbers reported here.)

The July sales numbers are starting to come in and they're not encouraging. Toyota's overall sales dropped 11.9 percent from last July.  As you can probably guess, trucks were responsible for the largest chunk of Toyota's dismal numbers; passenger cars were down only 5.7 percent while trucks plummeted 29.5 percent. If Toyota's turning in numbers like this, it's going to be scary to see everyone else's reports. We'll post 'em as we get 'em.

Click here for Toyota sales press release

[NB: The numbers in the official press release are adjusted for sales days; TTAC reports the unadjusted numbers.]