There are two main reasons why E85 is going nowhere fast: over-production and under-consumption. The U.S. Department of Energy has tackled the latter part of the non-equation with a federally-funded report exhorting gas station owners to get on the corn juice bandwagon. E85 Retail Business Case: When and Why to Sell E85 advises that "E85 offers relief from this [local] competition by differentiating a station as green, cutting edge, patriotic, and pro-farmer." So, greenwashing it is! What about, you know, making money? "E85 projects can be profitable investments. However, their profitability depends on numerous factors… This checklist includes robust local competition in the gasoline market, access to low E85 costs, mid-grade tanks available for conversion, large potential throughput of E85, and state or local incentives for E85 infrastructure." Large throughput as in sales? Good luck with that. Meanwhile, there's lots of agri-prop. My favorite argument: who cares about gas anyway? The money's in snack foods and car washes! And that's good news because "even if E85 drew no new customers but merely converted gasoline customers from the same store, the number of customer visits would increase. This is because a vehicle’s range is reduced by 23% to 28% when operating on E85 because of ethanol’s lower energy content compared to gasoline." The mind boondoggles.
Category: Sales
You may recall this most excellent dispatch re: sourcing a new Nissan GT-R at list price. It was penned by TTAC car reviewer and bon vivant Jay Shoemaker. Since writing the epistle from the "budget supercar front," Shoes managed to source the beast. As the headline attests, it all ended in tears. At my request and considerable risk to his rep, Jay has allowed us to publish his email on this abortive venture. [Note: no flaming the rich guy.]
"I was successful in finding a way to acquire one of the first US GTR's at MSRP. I had to pull strings to accomplish this, but I suppose that is what strings are for. Anyway, Nissan USA gave me a nice letter of introduction and I flew to Tokyo last week to see and sit in the GTR (I did not get to drive it). As a prospective owner, I hated it; the external appearance is too boy racer and the interior is pretty much basic Nissan with one or two extra leather pieces. It gave me claustrophobia to sit inside it and was terribly uncomfortable. So after all I went through, I came home and cancelled my order. I suppose I should regret that I will not have the opportunity to drive one of the first U.S. GTRs, but I have never liked Nissans, don't like V6 engines, don't like turbocharged engines in general and definately don't like the idea of 20-inch run flat tires. Next month, I am off to Germany to pick up my Audi R8 at the Neckarsulm factory and drive it on the Autobahn to console myself."
Thanks to slightly rising sales in the U.S. (3.8 percent in 2007), a big gain in China (24.8 percent) and ongoing European success, the boys from Ingolstadt are rolling in the dough. Lamborghini– which the Volkswagen Group counts as an Audi brand (worryingly enough)– enjoyed a 15 percent rise in sales of hugely expensive sports cars. The bottom line: Audi banked a whopping $2.6b in profit in '07. That's a 26 percent jump over 2006. Audi is shooting for over a million car sales worldwide in 2008. Considering the fact that Audi sold about 954k units in 2007, it's doable. In fact, just think where they'd be if they built reliable products…
Jack Gillis reckons the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's (NHTSA) crash test ratings are misleading. "It's impossible for car buyers to separate the truly good performers from those at the bottom of the list," asserts the Director of Public Affairs for the Consumer Federation of America (CFA). Gillis points out that nearly every new vehicle sold in the U.S.– some 96 percent of them– are blessed with a four or five star NHTSA front crash rating. His Car Book provides a guide to the non-invidious distinctions between models, and our podcast clarifies Gillis' call for new testing standards. Meanwhile, here's the best/worst from the CFA's safety list, which combines front and side NHTSA ratings for an overall ranking.
Category/Best/Worst
Subcompact/Hyundai Accent/Toyota Yaris
Compact/Chevrolet HHR/Chrysler PT Cruiser
Intermediate/Toyota Avalon/Pontiac Grand Prix
Large/Acura RL/Cadillac DTS
Minivan/Kia Sedona/Kia Rondo
Small SUV/Jeep Liberyty/Jeep Compass
Midsize SUV/Volvo XC90/Cadillac SRX
Large SUV/Chevrolet Tahoe/Chevrolet Trailblazer
BorgWarner has announced [via Yahoo! News] that it is doubling its production capacity with a new facility in Arnstadt, Germany. In the past four years, they've put together about a million "DualTronic" dual clutch, paddle-shifterrific trannies. To meet the demand, the Borg are hiring an 150 workers for their German plant and spending some $40m for an additional 50k square feet. Not only is it nice to see some growth in this time of automotive post-shower shrinkage, but as the owner of one such transmission (and a car to go around it), this writer can't help but be smug. Ford, Nissan, and BMW have recently added or will be adding the Borgwarner's DualTonic boxes. Which only leaves one question: what's with BorgWarner's antipathy to the space bar?
That's right, the Chevrolet Spark is selling like hot naan in India. The Hindu reports GM manage to put 3,691 Sparks into peoples' driveways last month, up from just 1,286 the year before. For those of you not familiar with the decade-old Spark, it's also known as the Chevrolet Exclusive, Chevrolet Matiz, Chevrolet Joy, Daewoo Matiz, Pontiac Matiz, Pontiac G2, FSO Matiz, Chevrolet Taxi 7:24 Chronos and of course the hot sounding UZ Matiz (not to mention the Chery QQ). All variations of the Spark come with your choice of 0.8 and 1.0-liter engines. In contrast to the General's fortunes, India's overall auto market has experienced a bit of contraction, moving only 7,42,027 units through February vs. 8,27,594 vehicles the previous year. A big however, however, is in order. The Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM 'natch) counts motorcycle sales amongst the totals. If you look at just motorized four-wheeled transportation devices, they're up 2.31 percent.
We like Jack. Aside from being a hell of a race driver and future LeMons teammate, Jack Baruth is one of the most refreshing voices in the auto rag biz. His take on the new GT-R? Not good. While he's got nothing against the car per se, he's asking, "Who's going to buy it?" Jack argues that the GT-R's main competitors (Corvettes and 911s) have deeply entrenched, well-heeled fan bases with multiple owners clubs and racing series. The GT-R has fat kids in Mom's basement with carpel tunneled thumbs and a Slurpee's chance in Hell of getting the $70,000 needed to buy "Godzilla." He's also doubtful that the "Car Formerly Known as Skyline" will be much of a halo vehicle for Nissan, pointing out that the best thing about previous Skylines was that they didn't actually exist. They were myth. Now that they are bloated, expensive reality? Meh. Furthermore the GT-R is going to turn the 350Z into the "Nissan with panties." And finally, for those that can afford such a beast, are they going to enjoy slumming it down to their Nissan dealer where they might accidentally be seen next to a Versa? Nope. And Jack should know; he's the proud owner of two Volkswagen Phaetons.
Finally, it looks like the other shoe is dropping. Nine days after Toyota slashed prices on 16 of its Canadian models, its greatest emulator, Hyundai, has followed suit. CanadianDriver.com reports that Hyundai has recently clawed back the prices the Tiburon and the Tuscon L by $3,000 and $4,200 respectively. So how does this stack up against U.S. pricing? According to Hyundai.com, a new base-level Tiburon now costs $15,995 in Canada vs. $17,025 south of the border. The Tuscon is now cheaper north of the border, at $16,995 versus $17,235 in America. Before you Americans start drafting your business plan around a Canadian domestic market importation scheme, beware: the base Sonata is still more expensive in Canada, relieving of you $18,995 Canadian or $17,670 American. Now that Chrysler, Toyota and Hyundai have put the squeeze on dealers at other car companies' franchises, we expect many more "adjustments" to come. [thanks to Dave McDonald for the tip]
The Toronto Star reports that GM Canada is boosting Impala production by some 46 units per day, to about 1100. The General says it made the decision to put the pedal to the medal (i.e. adding overtime shifts) at the award-winning Oshawa plant to meet growing demand for the wrong-wheel-drive beast south of the 49th. Despite the decision to kibosh a rear wheel-drive version of the car, or maybe because of it, the Impala's American sales are up 7.3 percent from last year. Some Chevy dealers report that the "old," bigger Impala is stealing sales from the new, narrower Malibu. Either that or fleet clients have boosted their orders knowing that the Impala is slated for execution. (Automotive News [sub]: "General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC accounted for fewer than three out of four new vehicles sold to the U.S. rental industry last year — down from more than four-fifths in 2006.) Or maybe it's got something to do with the possibility of a Canadian Auto Workers strike. Your thoughts?
Yesterday, we reported that Mexico is protecting its car dealers by limiting American used-car imports to model year 1998. Today, The Houston Chronicle reports the import/export of choice: the ’98 Ford F-150. “You can throw the Blue Book away," says Luis Esparza, the sales manager for used-car dealer H.E.D. Sales in Houston. Over at Houston’s (“cash only”) Caribbean Auto Sales, one Bernardo Garcia figures a $5k ‘98 extended cab F-150 in good condition just went up by $500 to $700. Roddy McMichaels, owner of Longhorn Motor Co. says the Mexican stricture is no biggie; he seldom sells running cars or trucks destined for Mexico. "You'll see them on U.S. 59 hauling two or three of them,” he reveals. ”Pickups with 400k miles that they buy for $300. They take them down where labor and parts are cheap and fix them up." I guess used-car dealers near the border might want to stock up on ’98-model-year flatbed trucks, too.
Reuters reports that the strike at American Axle is forcing General Motors to idle production at two more plants: Moraine, Ohio (Chevrolet Trailblazer and GMC Envoy) and the AMC General plant in Mishawaka, Indiana (Hummer H2). This brings the total number of off-line production facilities to six, including the four factories that produce the GMC Sierra and Chevrolet Silverado pickup trucks. Job-wise, "13,700 GM workers, or almost 20 percent of its blue-collar work force, could be laid off this week." Next in the firing line: Yukatahoeburbelade production in Arlington, Texas and Janesville, Wisconsin. GM is down-playing the strike's effects on its bottom line. Marketing maven Mark LaNeve painted the problem as a convenient way to keep inventories low– in the face of February's 20 percent decline in truck sales. But GM [still] depends on the big rigs for the lion's share of its profits. If the strike stretches on, if truck inventories sink below severely diminished demand, the drain on GM's cash flow will be nothing short of catastrophic.
GM and Chrysler weren't the only ones singing the blues when February's sales numbers plunked onto the e-mat. Automotive News [sub] reports Ford and Toyota also showed declines in February– although not quite as precipitous as The General and Mopar. Ford's sales fell 6.3 percent compared to last February, while Toyota's (including Scion and Lexus) dropped a jaw-dropping 6.6 percent (when adjusted for the extra selling day this year). Toyota's atypical performance is attributed to poor truck sales. Group vice president of marketing admitted that ToMoCo's full-size truck and SUV sales "could get tougher before it gets better." With a 37 percent decline in the U.S. construction industry, Randy Pflughaupt ain't just whistling Dixie. Honda, Mazda and Nissan, on the other hand, bucked the trend and actually posted gains. Honda was up 4.9 percent, Mazda increased 6.7 percent and Nissan rose 1.2 percent. Hmmm… the two companies with no V8 engines and no full-sized pickups or huge SUVs showed the largest gains. What does that tell you?
Chrysler's 14 percent February sales drop was, in and of itself, a staggering hit. But Automotive News [sub] reports that this decline occurred in the face of an aggressive campaign of profit-killing consumer incentives. In February, ChryCo "led" the market in incentives, kicking-up the deals by five percent to an average of $3,579 a vehicle. We're talking zero percent interest for 72 months on most remaining 2007 models and zero percent financing for 62 months on select 2008 models. Heading into March, the automaker is following the Churchillian advise: "When going through Hell, keep going." Chrysler is upping incentives by another five percent this month, and loading-up the special deals: a free Hemi upgrade for Ram buyers, a free tank of gasoline, a $500 rebate to U.S. military personnel (on top of any other incentives) and (ironically enough given the Plastech debacle) a $500 rebate to employees of companies that supply Chrysler components. Meanwhile, the automaker reported Chrysler Sebring sales soared by 92.5 percent in February, while Dodge Avenger sales rose 59.6 percent. Which makes us discount Chrysler's assertion that it cut back on rental fleet sales, and leaves us wondering: where would their numbers be without fleet sales?
When contemplating the full horror of February's sales stats, the key metric to keep in mind is -6.3 percent. That number represent the overall decline in new car sales for the month, relative to '07. Automotive News [AN, sub] reports that Chrysler was the biggest loser in this declining market, registering a 14 percent February sales drop. Truck sales, upon which ChryCo's fortunes (or lack thereof) depend, sank 22 percent. The situation over at GM, is equally dire. Sales for the month dropped by 12.9 percent. Both automakers responded to the news with characteristic bravado/denial. GM Marketing Maven Mark LaNeve told analysts it's everybody's problem ("Toyota, Ford, all had a difficult month") and blamed the media ("I personally believe that this discussion of a recession hurts consumer confidence"). Chrysler's executive vice president of North American sales said the sun will come out tomorrow. While predicting double digit declines for every month for the rest of the year (!), Steven Landry said "We know there will be an upside. If it is March we want to be ready." Yes, well, if sales at GM and Chrysler continue to crater at this pace, both carmakers' cash conflagration will force them to file. It's simply a question of who'll file first.
Here's a tip you won't get from Warren Buffet: invest in Bugatti. You may recall Stephen Wilkinson's less than flattering blog post on the launch of a Bugatti with a slightly lightened version of it's 1,000+hp ubercar, the Veyron Pur Sang. It used a little more carbon fiber, avoided paint for exterior aluminum bits, weighed 200 pounds less and cost €1.4 million ($2.1 million). That was then. Today, finecars has one of the five Pur Sangs on sale for the "fixed price" of 3.2 million Euros. That's 4.8 million McDonald's cheeseburgers to you and me. Assuming some sucker a discerning car buyer shells out nearly $5m for the fastest ever Volkswagen, the seller will have made a tidy 230 percent profit. See? I knew that was going to happen. I really am in the wrong line of work…
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