Over the last year or so, GM's spinmeisters have relied on fleet sales reduction as their number one excuse for declining sales and market share. Not to coin a phrase, the spin stops here. Speaking at the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) conference in Mean Old "Frisco, GM's Marketing Maven Mark LaNeve said he "does not foresee a further reduction in GM’s fleet sales." Ward's pegs GM's current fleet sales at "fewer than 600,000 units," which LaNeve defended as "very profitable now." Apparently, that's because GM lowered fleet volumes AND raised prices. LaNeve told the assembled dealers that the process was a bitch. "This was a tough conversation. We had to go to some of our best customers – these guys buy hundreds of thousands of vehicles at a time – and say, ‘we’re raising prices and you’ll probably get less.’" Note the word "probably." Wards reports "when it comes to hot-selling products, such as the redesigned ’08 Chevrolet Malibu, if retail sales are high enough, rental companies might not get the vehicle." Note the word "might." And also note the fact that TTAC readers have already reported seeing the new 'Bu on rental lots. In fact, I'm not sure I believe any of this.  

While GM CEO Rick Wagoner is busy talking-up his plan to consolidate Saab, Hummer and Cadillac dealers into some sort of weird ass "luxury car" salon, Auto Motors und Sport [via Reuters] reports that Saab sales are slouching towards Bethlehem. Saab's head honcho, Jan-Ake Jonsson, told the German buff book that the erstwhile Swedish brand sold just 125k cars last year. That's down eight thousand cars from the year previous, and 35k less than Saab's recently revised internal goals. (In June, GM European Prez Carl-Peter Forster predicted 160k '07 Saab sales, down 10k from the previous estimate.) So, uh, where does that leave Saab's plans these days? "It is our target to sell 150,000 to 200,000 units per year," Jonsson told Auto Motor und Sport. "But in order to reach such annual sales we need the new models." Not if they're like the old new models…

Reuters reports that Chevrolet brand manager Ed Peper waxed downright Lutzian at the Chicago Auto Show. Peper said retail sales for Chevy's new Malibu rose 200 percent in January compared to the old model. WTF? Automotive News' data center [AN, sub] says Chevy sold 14,541 Malibus last month vs. 9,209 of the old model in January of last year. That's a 57.9 percent increase, not 200 percent. But it gets even more interesting. Peper denied that the new 'Bu had any effect on Impala sales. He attributed lower Impala sales in January to fleet sale reductions. In fact, he said Impala retail sales were up 44 percent. Uh, AN shows Impala sales were down 30.6 percent in January. If retail sales were up as much as Peper claims, and overall sales were nowhere near those levels, they must have been dumping one helluva lot of cars into fleets, as we suspected all along. If so, the trend could explain last month's huge surge in LaCrosse and Cobalt sales. [Thanks to starlightmica for the link]

Just as TTAC's Samir Syed was getting himself all hot and bothered about the car price differential between new cars in Canada and the U.S., Toyota ran him a nice cold bath. The automaker is slashing its Canadian prices to reflect what Stephen Beatty, managing director of Toyota Canada, calls the 'new normal.' Driving.ca reports that ToMoCo CA's cutting the manufacturer's suggested retail price (msrp) on 16 Toyota and Lexus models by a range of $750 and $8,100. Some examples (all in Canadian dollars): a Yaris hatchback drops five per cent ($750) to $13,165; the RAV4  falls 6.8 per cent ($2,000) to $27,400; the Tacoma pickup truck drops 10 per cen ($2,290) to $20,470; and the Lexus IS sports car decreases 13 per cent ($4,650) to $31,900. Beatty denies that a two percent drop in Toyota sales spurred the move. "This isn't about weakness in the marketplace… There is a difference structurally today in the marketplace from where we were last year." Oh, do the math and the RAV4 is still more expensive in Canada than the U.S. I guess the new normal is the same old you-know-what, only less. 

In January, GM Car Czar Bob Lutz stated that all of GM's new models "are getting a lot more non-GM and non-domestic conquests." As usual, the former marine aviator was flying by the seat of his pants. The numbers tell a different story. Automotive News [sub] compared fourth quarter '07 conquests to fourth quarter '05 for the redesigned Chevy Malibu and Cadillac CTS. In the last quarter '05, former Chevy owners accounted for 43.9 percent of Malibu sales. In the last quarter '07, the number rose to… 45.8 percent. The CTS sales stats also reveal that import buyers are lined-up none deep. In the fourth quarter of 2005, 30.1 percent of CTS buyers traded another Cadillac. In 2007, the number rose to… 42.2 percent. More specifically, Mercedes owners jumping ship for the midsized Caddy sedan ascended from 2.1 percent to 2.7 percent in 2007, and ex-Lexus owners increased from 1.2 percent to 2.3 percent. BMW owners stayed away. In 2005, 2.4 percent were BMW conquests; in 2007 that dropped to 2.3 percent.

According to mlive.com, auto industry analysts predict that the hybrid “premium” and consumer acceptance of $3 a gallon gas will dampen near-term demand for gas – electric vehicles. J.D. Power and Associates senior manager Michael Omotoso says the arrival of the next gen Prius will revive the genre. "In 2009 we see hybrid sales going over 600,000 units." Over at AutoNation, some 70 percent of car shoppers inquire about hybrids– but only two percent end up buying one. Spokesman Marc Cannon claims the Prius has been successful because "Americans really like that fact that the Prius stands out and it's a social statement; if you have a Prius, everyone knows it's a hybrid." And what of battery-powered cars? "The lithium-ion battery is nowhere near ready for showtime," says Brett Smith, a hybrid analyst at the Center for Automotive Research. Still, the Volt hype has raised expectations– and how. "Whoever sees those concept cars thinks it's ready to go." As Albert Einstein said, “Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one."

The U.S. automotive industry's '07 retail sales stats are in, and the Detroit Free Press pronounces Ford the biggest loser. The Blue Oval Boyz' share of the American new car market sank from 15.1 percent in 2006 to 14.2 percent last year. As the Freep's Sarah H. Webster points out, that's better than the '06 decline: a two percentage point drop. But she also notes (further down in the piece) that "Ford's decline, though, is also noteworthy as Ford's incentives, as estimated by Autodata Corp., a private firm in Woodcliff Lake, N.J., remain among the highest in the industry. Ford offered an average of $4,001 in discounts on its cars and trucks last year." We also learn that Chrysler and GM's market share held steady, Toyota lost a fraction of a percentage point and the Big 2.8's combined share of the U.S. market dropped a full percentage point. Heading into a down market, it remains to be seen if the truck-heavy domestics can hold the line. 

On one hand, Polk Automotive's 2007 Loyalty Awards are "based on actual consumer transactions, with over 6 million household records per year being analyzed to determine the winners." On the other hand, I never trust a list of award winners that doesn't provide the full results, including the losers. So, GM wins the manufacturer loyalty category, with a staggering 62.89 percent customer retention rate. Take THAT Toyota! Uh, hang-on. ToMoCo wins the "make" loyalty category, with 56.69 percent customer retention. What's the diff? (We'll phone Polk later.) GM scoops six segment titles: Small Car (Saturn Ion, 23.5 percent), Large Car (Chevrolet Impala, 33.89 percent), Sports Car (Pontiac Solstice, 19.08 percent), Full-Size Pickup Truck (Chevrolet Silverado, 36.64 percent), Full-Size SUV (Chevrolet Suburban, 23.21 percent), and Prestige SUV (Cadillac Escalade, 33.61 percent). Toyota takes five segment titles: Mid-size Car (Toyota Prius, 33.34 percent), Luxury Car (Lexus ES, 32.8 percent), Prestige Luxury Car (Lexus LS, 44.41 percent), Compact Pickup Truck (Toyota Tacoma, 17.73 percent), and Midsize SUV (Lexus RX, 29.04 percent). There's something strange about all this. Did I mention that we're phoning Polk? 

On the subject of the contest between GM and Toyota for the title "World's Largest Automaker," Autoblog jeffe John Neff accepts an unnamed source (via Reuters) and pronounces GM the winner. Strangely (for a man who's devoted a sizable chunk of cyber-space to the battle), Neff writes that "owning this title makes little difference to either automaker." Readers familiar with Toyota's profits– which dwarf GM's– would be forgiven for thinking that's where Neff's going. Readers familiar with Toyota's growing U.S. market share– as opposed to GM's shrinking market share– would also be forgiven for thinking that's where the story is about to go. Uh-uh. "Even if Toyota does pass GM in global sales for 2008, however, we don't expect it will be able to keep the title for very long before the General snaps it back. GM has a stronger presence in China and is doing very well in emerging markets, while Europeans seem to have taken a liking to the Chevy brand over there. If GM can get its U.S. sales back up, we expect it will remain the world's largest automaker." And as my Dad likes to say, if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a trolley car.

[FYI John Neff discusses blogs vs. the trad media with his pals here.] 

Speaking to Autmobilewoche (via just-auto), Opel CEO Hans Demant's let slip that GM's German division will not book a profit for '07. Although an Opel spinmeister later retracted the revelation on Demant's behalf, the facts speak for themselves. According to the Kraftfahrt Bundesamt government vehicle agency, Opel's domestic sales sank 14.7 percent last year. (The overall German car market fell nine percent; its lowest level since reunification.) In fact, the future's so dim, Demant's pulled the shades. He says the entire German market is no longer profitable, either for the automaker or for its dealers. Proving that RenCen doesn't have a lock on the old finger-pointing to avoid accountability routine, Demant said the "endless discussion" about a new CO2-related tax system, and the introduction of eco-zones in big cities, had led to customers going on strike. Uh-oh. Does this mean war?

"We're trying to create a feeling in our car dealerships more of a luxury hotel than a car dealership." This according to Lexus NA GM Mark Templin, speaking at the Automotive News [AN, sub] "world congress" (information without representation!). Templin encouraged U.S. Lexus dealers to offer the brand's customers enough upmarket creature comforts that they'll want to "hang out" down at the dealership, quaff a latte, check their emails, buy a car or something. Templin highlighted other advancements in the famous Lexus dealer experience, upon which its 178 purveyors (in 224 outlets) spent a cool billion bucks over the last three years. "They are making their Web sites more interactive," AN breathlessly reported. "Including virtual tours of the dealerships, their vehicles and even staffs." A virtual tour of a staff member? Whoa. That's taking the whole customer relationship deal a bit far, methinks.

Well that didn't last long. TTAC reader Nick Goddard's claims his love affair with the first official U.S. smart car is still hot and heavy, but four days after taking delivery he's put it up for sale on eBay. When I contacted him by phone, the 25-year-old owner was more than a little cagey about his motivation for the sale, claiming that he didn't really want to sell the car. He's just "curious to see what people are willing to pay." Apparently, his curiosity was piqued by a Manhattan car dealer, who told our nick2ny that someone walked in and offered $10k for a place on the smart waiting list. Anyway, the answer to the question "what's a six-day old 'historic' smart car worth?" is… we'll see. Goddard paid $20,500 for the vehicle, and putting the smart up for auction on eBay obliges him to accept the highest bidder's offer (incurring various penalties if he doesn't). Our man Lang reckons he'll get $5k over sticker. Any other estimates? Oh, and what are the odds smart may want to snag it for themselves?

The feds made us do it! I'm tempted to say that the Dow Jones' Marketwatch interview (via CNNMoney) with GM's Car Czar is Maximum Bob unplugged. But that assumes that Mr. Lutz was, at some point, connected with reality. Anyway, here we have Maxi Bob taking his "raised federal fuel economy standards are like forcing fat people to wear small clothes" argument to the next level. "With the federal mandates at 35 miles per gallon coupled with cheap fuel, it puts us at war with our customers. At $3 a gallon (for gas) many people still want full-sized pick up trucks (and) full-sized sport utilities with V8 engines… and we're not going to be able to sell it to 'em because we if we do we won't make (the federal mandates)," Lutz told the Dow folk, adding, "It's ridiculous." Strengthening his already bullet-proof rep for spouting Pollyanna prognostications based on sweet FA, Lutz also says he's spoken to bankers who think the worst is over for the "mortgage meltdown crisis and the liquidity crisis." Anyway, who cares? "If everything goes well in the rest of the world, we can take a couple hits in the U.S. and still be okay." And just in case you thought Bob's reality divorce papers weren't signed yet, how about this: "We are working on the electrification of the automobile because my personal theory is the best way to save fuel is to use none at all." 

GM wants to consolidate its eight automotive brands into urban megastores. According to Automotive News [AN, sub], Marketing Maven Mark LaNeve even has a name for these Buick, Pontiac, Saturn, GMC, Cadillac, Hummer, Saab and Chevrolet megastores: "GM Collections." Apparently, the concept would help GM to "maintain a high profile in cities where real estate is costly." To that end, dealers would be encouraged to move service and parts operations to "satellite centers." Ya think? To represent, a GM megadealer would need at least 49 demo vehicles. And then there's all the pickup truck variants. Even without considering exterior colors or option packages, that's a lot of choice. Too much? Not according to AN writer Jamie Larau. "The superstore approach likely would make GM brands more attractive to big dealer groups such as AutoNation Inc. and Sonic Automotive Inc." (Maybe he should have asked them.) And what of GM's divisions' brand weaknesses, and the obvious product overlap? [crickets chirping] Folks, arguments can (and will) be made for this idea, but there's a compound word for the concept, and the first part of it is "cluster."

The Detroit News' story on Rick Wagoner's recently professed intention to continue consolidating Buick, GMC and Pontiac dealers is straightforward to the point of wondering why the Hell they bothered. GM's got too many dealers (14,118). Wagoner wants to trim the network. This is news? Alright then, we'll play. Given that all GM dealers are protected by their state's franchise laws, how exactly is Wagoner going to git 'er done? Is the General going to spend [some more of the bank's] billions and buy-out stand alone dealers? Are they going to swing their ax and defend their position in court? Or are they simply going to continue starving Buick/Saab/Hummer/Pontiac of killer product until the brands die of natural causes– or just long enough to force them to consolidate and then turn the models into variations of a single brand? Three brands? Four brands? Inquiring minds want to know! The closest scribe Sharon Terlep comes to providing an answer. ""We do it one and two at a time," GM Marketing Maven Mark LaNeve told her of the consolidations. "Every situation is unique." So now we know.