The numbers for the Chevrolet plug-in hybrid electric Volt—running costs vs. the competition and the manufacturer’s margin—don’t add up. Never did. Right from its inception, GM was demurring on the timeline for the theoretical vehicle’s theoretical profitability. Early adopters, economy of scale, yada yada yada. Even after GM’s prearranged a $7500 tax credit with Uncle Sugar—an outrageous tilting of the playing field in the former bankrupt’s favor—the Volt remains a guaranteed, sure-fire money loser. Even if the price of gas soars, the Volt will not be an economic proposition. These facts have been largely lost on the mainstream media (MSM), whose myopia for all things green and beautiful has blinded them to the equations that will seal its fate. And even when they do crunch the numbers, they refuse to see the light. To wit CNNMoney. Make the jump to do the math. Otherwise, GM’s headlong rush down the obfuscation highway has a new champion: “So it’s not impossible that the Volt could become a sales success, even if the strict dollar analysis does not work out for it.”
Autoblog—nope. Can’t do it. Not allowed. TTAC’s Best and Brightest have forbidden me from flaming AOL’s . . . uh . . . website. So I’ll just point out that the off-camera comments are largely supportive and wonder why AB’s crack team weren’t allowed behind the wheel of GM’s Hail Mary plug-in hybrid. I mean, there are plenty of prototypes plying the highway (at something less than 230 mpg, presumably). Oh, and as our ever-vigilant former Managing Editor Justin Berkowitz points out, who knew the Volt was not a quint-essential conveyance? [NB: Sarcasm Alert] Less prosaically, “That’s going to piss people off.”
GM’s SEC Filing, Form 8-K, August 7, 2009 is 3100 pages long. Full marks, then, to someone at Autocar [UK] for reading the document and winkling-out this bit about the Volt’s viability (there’s that word again). Props, also, to our Justin Berkowitz for finding the unidentified source of Autocar’s report and doing same. It should be noted that SEC filings, like all corporate disclaimers, are obliged to moot the gloomiest possible scenario (i.e., CYA). Even so, this is pretty sobering stuff, considering it was released four days before the 230 mpg hoopla.
We intend to invest significant capital resources to support our products and to develop new technology. In addition, we are committed to invest heavily in alternative fuel and advanced propulsion technologies between 2009 and 2012, largely to support our planned expansion of hybrid and electric vehicles, consistent with our announced objective of being recognized as the industry leader in fuel efficiency. Moreover, if our future operations do not provide us with the liquidity we anticipate, we may be forced to reduce, delay or cancel our planned investments in new technology.
“EPA has not tested a Chevy Volt and therefore cannot confirm the fuel economy values claimed by GM. EPA does applaud GM’s commitment to designing and building the car of the future—an American-made car that will save families money, significantly reduce our dependence on foreign oil and create good-paying American jobs. We’re proud to see American companies and American workers leading the world in the clean energy innovations that will shape the 21st century economy.”
GM announced today that it expects the Volt to receive the first-ever triple-digit EPA rating (including 230 city MPG). GM’s John Lauckner goes into a little more detail at a Fastlane livechat:
Guest: Can you please explain the 230 mpg rating. I must say I balked at your gamble on EREV instead of full hybrid like toyota, but this validates your gamble.
Jon Lauckner: Yes, having a vehicle that achieves triple digit fuel economy is a game changer. The 230 mpg refers to the city fuel economy, but we also expect to have a triple digit combined fuel economy value. These preliminary numbers are based on Volt development testing with our pre-production vehicles and the draft federal fuel economy methodology developed by EPA for EREV vehicles like the Volt.
But, as usual, everything is not what it seems . . .
How did we miss facesofgm.com? I mean, it’s not like they have four (five?) other websites offering the public a look down the nationalized rabbit hole. But now that we’ve found it, well, way-hey! Clearly, New GM is playing the babe card; all three “faces” are female. Mel Fox by name, Mel Fox by, uh, nature. Needless to say, “the world of Mel” has been carefully sanitized by GM’s spinmeisters. Not so much Mel’s personal blog: theworldofallthingsmel. Here we get the idea that maybe Volt battery engineer Mel’s got mixed feelings about GM. “so i find myself asking… what can i do about this? [the root of the problems that we face in our nation is the mindset of humans, and the way people in power work to manipulate others, and the way that those being manipulated enable themselves to be manipulated again and again] the other question i ask is, how much of my career needs to involve invoking change vs. believing that what i’m working on is “good?” my point here is that perhaps it’s via the time donated to affiliations and public offerings that real change can be fostered as i don’t see too much within corporate america that truly facilitates change (fundamental change, that is).” On the other hand, Mel’s met the enemy and it is us!
Automotive News [sub] dug deep for its latest piece on the Volt project, a sprawling opus which fills in a number of the missing pieces in TTAC’s own Volt Birth Watch. From the birth of the concept (“I was getting so pissed off about reading about how the wonderful, far-sighted Toyota is the only one who understands technology”) to its design (“Within 15 minutes, [John Lauckner] had the vehicle basically laid out”) GM’s Bob Lutz takes us inside GM’s moonshot. So what’s the view like from that tin can now, Major Bob?
Jon Lauckner, New GM’s Vice President of Global Program Management, picked up the FastLane webchat-a-phone and confirmed that he can’t confirm a final price for its tire-squawking (true story!) Hail Mary hybrid. This despite the fact that the Volt—or at least a small squad of hand-built prototypes—is due at the Chevy showroom—or at least down at the steps of Congress for the next ’round of bailout hearings—by the end of 2010. “Hi Dan,” Lauckner says, greeting the e-interrogator daring GM to whip out its sticker. “We typically do not lock in on pricing until about 3-6 months prior to start of production. The reason is primarily so we have an opportunity to take a look at the market, competitors and other factors. So stay tuned.” So to speak, ’cause that issue ain’t sorted out neither . . .
With the Malibu mild-hybrid out of the picture and the Volt project still in integration testing, GM-Volt.com reports that the General is developing a “dedicated hybrid” model alá Prius and Insight. According to GM’s Ed Peper, the 4-banger manual Malibu’s 33 highway mpg makes the extra cost of a mild hybrid a tough sell. Besides, a hybrid has to look like a hybrid to earn its eco-premium, right? But isn’t that what the Volt does? Unless, of course, GM wants an eco-halo that it can (possibly) make money on. In which case… duh? Either way, if GM plumps for a dedicated hybrid alongside the Volt, it will mean more development cost, more cannibalism, and more signs of death-thrashing. Time to pop those focus pills, GM. Again. Still.
In fact, Jean Jennings loves her some, well, anything—as long as the company providing the four-wheeled thing butters her bread either directly or indirectly (via advertising). Way back in March 2008, TTAC took the president and editor-in-chief of Automobile magazine to task for pimping for Jeep. Now, even as Old GM becomes Old GM II (a.k.a. New GM), the bankrupt automaker’s turning to Jean for a spirited defense of their beleaguered plug-in Hail Mary. This, remember, is the car the pre-C11 GM Presidential Task Force on Automobiles dismissed as . . . well, shall we recap? “GM is at least one generation behind Toyota on advanced, “green” powertrain development. In an attempt to leapfrog Toyota, GM has devoted significant resources to the Chevy Volt. While the Volt holds promise, it is currently projected to be much more expensive than its gasoline-fueled peers and will likely need substantial reductions in manufacturing cost in order to become commercially viable.” Anyway, misery loves company. Automobile magazine’s owner, Source Interlink, recently emerged from bankruptcy. Despite the objection of the IRS. See what paying Bill Clinton $15.4 million in do-nothing consulting fees can do for you?
Ahead of schedule and under budget? Maybe this one will come down to door closing sounds. So why the flashback to the concept bait-and-switch? If the Volt’s butterfly-into-larvae morph doesn’t remind folks of the Old, Bad GM, what will? Ask Farah for yourself at his Live Chat Confessional, 4 pm Eastern, at Fastlane.
As a presidential candidate, Barack Obama made a campaign promise to have one million plug-in hybrids on America’s roads by 2015. That’s an ambitious plan, considering we didn’t hit the million hybrid milestone until eight years after the Prius was introduced. Back in April, GM’s Volt Man Tony Posawatz admitted to MSNBC that “it certainly is a difficult challenge to achieve that goal.” He went on to say that GM would have “tens of thousands” of Volts on the road by 2015. But, “it’s not readily obvious, based on the product plans that have been communicated, that the 2015 objective aligns with what is currently on the books,” he said. Would someone please tell Tony who pays the bills? Anyway, the tune has changed. “I can tell you we can definitely do the heavy lifting part of that,” GM’s Brita Gross tells Automotive News [sub]. “We definitely will lift up our end of that.” But how?
Yes, it’s triple VBW day at TTAC, thanks to Beth Lowery, GM Vice President, Environment, Energy & Safety Policy. Over at the Fastlane blog, Lowery is proving that the more things change at GM, the more things don’t change. She’s still talking about perception gaps. And here’s the spin re: the Volt’s financial sustainability. [BTW: Whatever happened to GMNext?]
The Chevrolet Volt’s engineering team has given journos seat time in development mules. While this proves that the Volt exists, no car hack has been allowed to put the most important metrics to the test: range and recharge times. In fact, the makers of GM’s plug-in hybrid Hail Mary haven’t allowed a single scribe to drive the car in “range-extended mode.” For the euphemistically averse, that’s the bit where the Volt switches from battery operation to gasoline-powered battery operation. Writing in the Irish Times, automotive correspondent Chelsea Sexton (I’m female!) tried to rectify this sin of omission. She encountered little of CEO Fritz Henderson’s stack-o-bibles promise of transparency. In fact, this is genuinely funny stuff, in a “there goes a billion dollars of my tax money despite the PTFOA’s pre-C11 assertion that the Volt is a waste of money” kinda way.
In an interview with gm-volt.com, The General’s global product honcho, John Lauckner, reveals the impossible: the Volt is somehow under-budget. According to Lauckner, “. . . were [sic] very pleased that were [sic] on time on target and under budget.” After all, “you can’t ask for more than that when your running a program the size of the Volt and with the amount of technology that we’re [See? It’s not that hard] designing developing and implementing largely on the fly.” Yes, but what does “under budget” mean when you’re talking about a $40K bailout-baby green halo car?
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