Kevin Bacon fans note: there are no degrees of separation between Tesla Death Watch 12 and this, Volt Birth Watch 67. They're both based on the same TTAC-mentioning New York Times article on mainstream electric vehicles (EV). The Death Watch revealed scribe Joe Nocera's skepticism for Tesla's four-door dreams– sorry "plans" for a mainstream EV. And wails on Aptera's ambitions. So how will we all live together, together in electric dreams? The plug-in hybrid electric – gas Chevrolet Volt ! "So where should we look, realistically, for a mass-market electric vehicle? Believe it or not, Detroit. In fact, the quick-fix approach that strikes me as the most promising comes from — surprise! — General Motors, the chief villain of 'Who Killed the Electric Car?' The Chevy Volt, which the company wants to bring to market in 2010, is a plug-in hybrid that aspires to be able to travel 40 miles before switching to gasoline power. But the best part is that the combustion engine will automatically recharge the battery — so it can switch back even while you’re driving." Huh? What about the here-and-now Toyota Prius? Especially as it's headed for plug-in-itude. Nope. "It’s not sexy like the Tesla, and it’s not aerodynamic like the Aptera Typ-1. But for a mass-market solution in the here and now, [the Volt's] the one to root for."
Category: Volt Birth Watch
During his visit to MI, presidential candidate John McCain dropped his automaker-unfriendly talk of California's emissions standards to focus on the "game-changing" plug-in hybrid electric – gas Chevrolet Volt. Maverick reputation notwithstanding, McCain was only too happy to lead in the self-congratulatory cheerleading. "The eyes of the world are now on the Volt and this will be not only be about the jobs or economy of this great and beautiful state," McCain said. "It's also about the future of the world. We have to eliminate our dependence on foreign oil as a national security issue." Surrounded by competitive products like the Chevy Cobalt, McCain called the the Volt "another great leap forward in American history." Meanwhile, GM CEO Rick Wagoner showed his understanding of engineering. He told McCain that "If this [the Volt's powertrain] doesn't work perfectly, we can do everything else perfectly and it's not going to work." This while admitting that the Volt development team is "pushing the time envelope." Uh-oh.
Automotive News [sub] reports that the plug-in electric – gas hybrid Volt will be sold as a Chevrolet in the U.S. only. When they go on sale in Europe in 2012, they'll have different styling and wear Opel and Vauxhall badges– even though they'll be built on the same assembly line in Michigan. So why, with GM's push to make Chevy their "global" brand, are they rebadging the Volt for their Euro-brands? GM claims Opel and Vauxhall have larger dealer networks than Chevy. But let's face it… with Chevy's image as a bargain-basement brand in Europe and their current offerings of rebadged Daewoos, how many people would consider buying a high-tech, high-priced electric hybrid at a Chevy dealership in Europe? About as many as would consider buying a Corvette at one. Which is why Corvette is marketed in the Eurozone as a separate brand with Hummers and Cadillacs, and why Volts will become Opels and Vauxhalls. Stimt?
In a move bound to raise howls of protest from the Chevy Volt's cheerleaders, GM (along with nine other manufacturers) has asked the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to lower the 4.5 percent annual increases in the CAFE standards projected between 2011 and 2015. To justify the request, GM stated they won't have enough Volts and Vue plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) on the road by 2015 to meet the more stringent standards. GM "strongly discouraged" any assumptions that their PHEVs would impact their corporate fleet average. Their NHTSA filing flatly stated "GM's game-changing (extended range electric vehicle) technology should be treated as a low-volume application." (Only GM could use "game changing" and "low volume" in the same sentence.) How low is "low volume"? The Detroit News reports GM plans to build fewer than 200k Volts in the first five years (40k per year average). To make matters worse– for the U.S. PHEV crowd– GM says many of those will be exported. Of course, this all assumes GM will start producing Volt and PHEV Vues in late 2010 as promised. So now, it's put up or shut time. The sad thing is that GM will do neither.
Jim Majeta at Kicking Tires reports a change in GM's upcoming hybrid electric – gas hybrid Chevrolet Volt's fuel tank size. The 12-gallon tank with a 600-mile projected range is no more. GM's not saying by how much they're shrinking the tank, but the new projected range is 360 petrochemical miles. As that's just over half the previous gas-only range, a straight division yields a 7.2-gallon tank. Per the article, "GM says because most cars [will in theory] travel 40 miles or less each day, there was really no need to have a 12-gallon fuel tank – and the added weight – to extend the range by 600 miles." Translation: "We have problems meeting weight and packaging requirements, big time. Besides, the only range we have to beat is the Tesla Roadster's." Speaking of another manufacturer suffering from premature specification…
GM wants to have a production version of its plug-in electric – gas hybrid Chevrolet Volt ready in time for its centennial this September. Automotive News [sub] cites "people familiar with the project" [Ed: my haven't they been busy today] who say the ailing American automaker is rushing to finish their four-wheeled Hail Mary by September 16, when RenCen celebrates the 100th anniversary of its founding by Billy Durant. In spite of the self-imposed deadline, "a GM spokesman declined to comment on the timeline for its next announcements on the Volt, which will include naming a supplier for the vehicle's lithium-ion battery pack." How can GM PR claim a "production version" of the Volt will be ready when they can't even say who'll supply the battery pack eight weeks before the debut? With ease, apparently. GM seems to be banking on the usual fawning media coverage to divert attention from the real issue: crashing sales, a raging cash conflagration and the threat of Chapter 11 just over the horizon. But hey! We'll have a hand-assembled "production" Volt to show off. What more could you want?
The Wall Street Journal's Holman Jenkins joins the growing media chorus asking "WTF's up with GM?" [paraphrasing]. With GM's stock prices in the $11 per share range for the first time since the 1950s, Jenkins wonders if banking the entire company's future on one model– the plug-in electric gas hybrid Volt– is "nuts." In the grand TTAC style, the scribe observes "to pour hundreds of millions into a race to launch an electric car, the Chevy Volt, guaranteed to lose money on every unit sold, begins to seem a peculiar strategy for a company in dire liquidity straits." Jenkins covers all bases in his Volt diss. "For those who think the Volt's justification is greenhouse emissions, notice that electric cars play Three Card Monte with energy inputs: It all depends on where the electricity is coming from." To drive home his point, he reminds us "Rick Wagoner last week laid out the case to Barack Obama personally for turning GM into a ward of the state," and "that a big part of the company's turnaround gamble consists also of eliciting favor once again from Washington after a period in which the domestic auto makers were nothing but whipping boys on Capitol Hill." In fact, Jenkins only misses the target once: his repeated insistence that "GM executives are not nuts." In that sense, neither are pistachios.
The LA Times reports that nobody tells Bob Lutz how to sell electric cars. In response to a NY Times article on GM's woes, an unnamed EV activist wrote a letter to the editor suggesting GM bring back the EV1 using Panasonic lead-acid batteries. This might have flown under the radar, except that the plucky rabble-rouser copied Maximum Bob on the email. Besides proving that he knows how to use email, Bob's reply proved that his world famous piss-and-vinegar approach hasn't been blunted by GM's recent bad news. "The EV will not meet any current safety laws," writes Lutz. "Putting a version into production that meets regulations would put us out to '11 or '12. They cost us well over $80,000 to produce, and, being a two-seater, we could only sell 800 in four years. We lost over one billion dollars on that experiment." And to the assertion that the Volt "depends on Lithium batteries which don't yet exist," Maximum Bob says "I don't know why you insist that lithium-ion doesn't exist… trust me, the battery will not delay the car." Though the last point might have a little more nuance to it than Bob lets on, it's good to see him put dreams of an EV1 comeback tour to bed.
The Atlantic boasts a lengthy article on the Chevy Volt containing some pretty eye-opening revelations from author Jonathan Rauch. "And how, I ask [Volt chief engineer Andrew Farah] over coffee early one February morning in Detroit, is it going… The car, he says, is 10 weeks behind the original schedule. Any more slippage, and the 2010 deadline will be history. Even if no more time is lost, he will have only eight weeks to test the underbody, the car's structural base. Is that enough time? He answers indirectly. In some cars, he says, testing the underbody can take a year." And the mood permeates the entire program: "At the end of February, when I returned to the technical center, the picture looked different. December's ebullience had given way to a sense of strain that was evident even to a tourist. 'We currently are at the limit of our stretch,' one senior battery engineer told me." None of this seems to bode well for the timely arrival or reliability of what is arguably the most advanced automobile ever offered for sale in the U.S. Or for the company that's attempting to pull the miracle out of its ass hat.
Earlier this year, GM Car Czar Bob Lutz announced that his employer was [theoretically] set to build about 10k plug-in electric – gas hybrid Volts in the car's first year of production, "so we can deal with any issues before we really crank up for high volumes." In an email to the Detroit Free Press, GM's Chairman of Vice confirmed the initial 10k run in 2011, and then set a number for 2012: 60k units. Considering that GM is what's commonly called a "volume automaker," and the fact that Toyota has sold 79,765 Priora so far this year, that seems like mighty small beer. Which just got smaller. Maximum Bob admitted that the production stats are "notional targets." GM may offer even less Voltage in the model's first year "to ensure that all vehicles built are safe and high quality." Oh yeah, and "the actual number [built in the first two years] is highly dependent on electrical component supplier capability and battery experience." So there you have it. GM will produce 10k Volts in the first year. Or not. And produce 60k Volts in the second year. Or not. But they definitely will produce Volts. Or not.
In yet another Lutzie-worthy display, "Maximum" Bob Lutz tells the Seattle Times that even though first-gen Volts will retail for $40k and generate no profit for GM, "for the first time, our well-thought-of Asian competitors will be left in the dust" by its magnificence. And who wouldn't be terrified at the prospect of competing with a $40k profitless wonder? But Lutz didn't only highlight the tensions between the Volt's aspirations to neo-Model T status, and its mounting sticker shock. He actually gloats about the project, saying "We are simply quite startled and amazed at how everything is working according to plan." Because apparently making money and offering an affordable PHEV were never part of the plan. But Lutz isn't totally delusional. He estimates that by 2020 or 2025 between a quarter and half of all new vehicles sold in the U.S. will be electric or hydrogen-powered, and that nuclear power is "the only real option" for this mass electrification. So why can't he stop spewing disingenuous optimism about the Volt project? When even the die-hard fanboys of gm-volt.com are starting to say things like "If they retail it at $40,000, the Volt is going to switch from a 'game changer' to 'another EV-1 disaster,'" what else can you do?
Hmmm. Automotive News [sub] gives us insight into GM Car Czar Bob Lutz's confidence in his not-yet stillborn baby, the Chevy Volt. An odd choice of words to be sure. But hey — this is Maximum Bob we're talking about. Speaking in Detroit, Lutz told his assembled fans reporters that GM is confident in the 2010 Volt launch date and that GM's close to picking a battery supplier. Lutz claimed that the Volt-drivetrain-equipped Malibu mules have been hitting the target EV-mode 40 miles and beyond. "They've routinely had it to the high 30s, low 40s and they go up hills with it and everything," said Lutz. Of course he also referred to global warming as a "crock of shit" and called yours truly a pinhead. (Full disclosure — we were picking out XL racing helmets and he commented that we both have big heads. "7 5/8" I told him and he yelled, "Ha! 7 3/4 — Pinhead!") As for the Volt, as far as we can tell, those batteries don't exist yet. But what do we know?
Tony Posawatz is the corporate QB looking to deliver GM’s Volt-shaped Hail Mary. In a pre-game chinwag with Reuters, the senior engineering executive sheds some light on GM’s playbook. Production will be ramped up slowly “to make sure everything [the battery pack] is bulletproof.” Meanwhile, GM will be lobbying utilities to offer rebates or cheaper off-rate charging rates, and other forms of tax relief. GM is also planning on selling used battery packs to utilities as power storage systems. Posawatz acknowledges that financial losses are inevitable: “to make this thing a sustainable business, we have to drive it to volume.” So, a low price then? “The nature of this technology is that it’s going to be expensive, and we will not underprice this vehicle.” Ah, BUT– GM is may build a 20-mile range version as “part of an effort to cut the cost of such vehicles by half or more.” Translation: the 40 mile-range Volt will be an expensive ($45k and up) low-volume “halo” vehicle for GM’s bragging rights. It will take several more years of cost (and range) cutting before something resembling an actual Prius competitor hits the streets. The loyal cheerleaders at Volt-nation are apoplectic, calling for Posawatz’s head. Their hopes for GM’s populist electric Model T are fading as fast as GM’s cash reserves.
Sales in the toilet? Market share down? Cash burning? Thank God for Maximum Bob. Post Black Tuesday, GM Car Czar Bob Lutz demonstrated GM's commitment to a better tomorrow by not flying a Harrier jump jet to the recent Volt mule demo. According to ever-faithful Detroit News, "Bob Lutz has upped his personal commitment to battery-powered transportation with the purchase of an electric scooter." If that doesn't make you think longingly about someday maybe having the opportunity to possibly order an actual Chevrolet Volt, then this: "Lutz already has four electric Segways at home, including a pair of X2 off-road models." Four? Segway soccer? Anyway, Autoblog's Sam Abuelsamid trades his Bob props for some scuttlebutt. In terms of potential Volt battery suppliers, GM has "a lower risk with one company than the other." Since the Guardian recently ran a story naming potential supplier LG Chem/Compact Power as the provider of the Volt mule's powerpack, Abuelsamid's colleagues at AutoblogGreen assumed that LG Chem/CP was Lutz's preferred company. Twice. AutoblogGreen must've missed the International Herald Tribune story "Compact Power plans to make Volt batteries at a factory on Seoul's outskirts that will make paperback-sized cells for a coming Hyundai hybrid." In other words the real headline should be "GM Volt To Use Hyundai Batteries."
Not only does GM want the U.S. taxpayer and the Chinese government to subsidize development and sale of the Volt, now they're reaching into Michigan taxpayers' pockets to subsidize the production. GM insists they want to produce their electric-gas wundercar in Detroit to show how much they support the city and state– but only if the city and state support them by giving them tax breaks. The Detroit News reports GM met with the Detroit City Council yesterday to discuss their plans for the Volt. But no one will say just what kind of extortion "tax incentives" they demanded are seeking. With the magical year 2010 just a short time away, it seems to me they need to stop their fund-raising activities and get on with aligning their webbed-footed waterfowl. That is, if they really do plan on getting the Volt to the market in 2010. Otherwise, they can just keep on playing "poor poor pitiful me" and blame production delays on the government.
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