The North American International Auto Show is winding down to it's inevitable conclusion, as journalists and auto execs alike stumble into Detroit's winter gloom, wondering what the New Year will bring, knowing that it won't bring half the weird-ass shit they just saw inside the Cobo convention center. As TTAC celebrates the conclusion of this PR bragfest in the only way we know how (watching Top Gear's Hamster almost kill himself in a jet-powered car on BBC America), we invite you to have a look at the pictures Mr. Montgomery snapped that didn't make it into blog posts. We'll have more show-related news tomorrow. But for now, a big thank you from me to Sajeev Mehta, William C. Montgomery and Frank Williams for keeping it real. You should be proud. Never in the course of the internet have so few done so much for so few. Or something like that.

Our [non Dodge] intrepid reporters at the North American International Auto Show– Mssrs. Montgomery and Mehta– are calling it a day. It's been a historic moment for The Truth About Cars; Frank and I are proud of our electronic collaboration. We didn't offer the breadth of coverage that other, better equipped and more experienced members of the media swarm have produced. And our technology could use a bit of an upgrade. But it's been a Hell of a start, well in keeping with TTAC's tone and no-holds-barred traditions. Tomorrow is the big day, when our warmed-up journalists mobilize their mojo, and TTAC's MIA big gun commentators return to their cubicles, loaded for bear. I certainly hope you'll join us for the festivities. Meanwhile, if you want to see today's scalps, click on the links below. Thanks for being there.

2009 Honda Pilot

BMW ActiveHybrid

BMW Advanced Diesel

BMW Hydrogen7

BMW M3

BMW M6

BMW X6

Ford

Ford Explorer America Concept

Ford F-150

Ford Flex

Ford Mustang

Ford Verve Concept

Honda Accord

Lexus

Lexus LF-A Roadster

Lexus LX570

Mazda

MINI Clubman

MINI Cooper

MINI Cooper S

Nissan GT-R

smart fortwo

Subaru Forester

Toyota Corolla XRS

Who asked the Detroit News' Show Biz reporter to chime-in with his feelings about the 2008 North American International Auto Show? I mean Jeez; David Phillips is raining on a parade that his employer has been hyping since Buick was asking people if it was time for a real car (ready when you are). Then again, it's an itty bitty blog post, And I suppose that an entertainment writer is the most keenly aware when the stars of the show are off skiing in Park City. "Lexus, Acura, Nissan, Infiniti and Suzuki are taking a pass this year. Porsche is gone altogether. Aston Martin has quietly vanished from the Ford stand for obvious reasons." Which are… "the cost of doing business inside Cobo Center, an automaker's product cadence, the growth in overseas markets, other opportunities, venues and auto shows to showcase new product, etc." Hmm. I wonder if that cost has anything to do with some union or other, and whether Big Ron Gettelfinger could sort them out. (You gotta bend over like this. No, not me. You.) Phillips final remark shows how quick Detroit is to react to economic challenges. "Show organizers should be worried." Ya think? [thanks to starlightmica for the tip]

The Chrysler brand is going global, but not the way you'd think. While GM and Ford ramp-up operations under their corporate names around the world, Chrysler is pimping itself out. Dodge is already building trucks for Mitsubishi. Chrysler has a deal for Chery to provide a small car to Dodge in Mexico; they're also developing a small car with Chery for North America. Volkswagen's Canadian Chrysler-built minivan starts production later this year. Nissan wants Chrysler to build large trucks for them for the U.S. And now Reuters reports Nissan will make Versas to be sold as Chryslers in South America in 2009. Confused yet? Trust me– it's going to get worse (better?) as Cerberus does whatever it takes to keep Chrysler's head above water long enough to get what they can when they finally get down to the strip and flip part of the program.

Heads-up Autoblog! Buried in a boring-looking post on Toyota's Open Road blog: news that the Japanese manufacturer will follow Nissan's lead and add a real-time fuel economy gauge to all its Toyota, Scion and Lexus vehicles. The yet-to-be-finalized gizmo will debut in the next-generation 4-Runner, launched in August ‘09. ToMoCo's Corporate Comms Director Jon F. Thompson writes that the Eco Driving Indicator will include an "Eco Zone Display" that will tell the driver that they are saving money and the planet, and reducing our need for oil-related foreign military entanglements [paraphrasing]. Autobox-equipped vehicles get an "Eco Lamp" that illuminates once the driver enters the “Eco Zone” (da da da da da, da da da da). Drivers of manual transmission-equipped vehicles (do they still make those?) light the lamp by hitting the most fuel efficient shift point. The system will, of course, include an Average Fuel Consumption Meter to help aspiring hypermilers frustrate dangerous drivers yakking on the cell in their [non-Toyota] gas hogs. I mean, optimize their fuel economy. Oh, and Thompson says social engineering rocks! "We’ve learned that as we work to make our vehicles more efficient, we also can work to make our drivers more efficient."

The U.S. isn't the only market where car sales have stumbled, tripped and hit their head on the coffee table. Japan Times reports that new vehicle sales in The Land of the Rising Sun sank to a 35-year low in 2007. The Japan Auto Dealer's Association recorded slightly fewer than 3.5m new vehicle sales.  Automobiles with engines larger than 660cc were down 7.6 percent from 2006, while sales of minicars (engines smaller than 660cc) fell 5.1 percent. Toyota took a huge hit on their home turf, dropping 6.2 percent for the year. Honda, Nissan and Mazda managed to lose less. Analysts blame rising fuel prices, a shrinking population and a decline in wages. Just like GM and Ford (and to a lesser extent, Chrysler), foreign sales are buoying the car companies' bottom lines. Even they're doing relatively well, the current U.S. sales slowdown will take their toll on the Japanese corporate motherships. 

GM's main man told Bloomberg that he expects 75 percent of The General's car and truck sales to come from outside the U.S. within a decade. Meanwhile, while GM's setting sales records in developing markets overseas, they're losing money at home. Lots of money. To his credit, Rabid Rick did touch on that small issue with Bloomberg. GM's CEO claimed his "plan" to end those losses is about "50 to 60 percent complete." WHAT PLAN? Has anyone seen this plan or is he, like Indiana Jones, making it up as he goes along? Which ever it is, Wagoner [finally] admits things aren't quite going as expected. "Maybe the actions are a little farther along, but the results I don't think are that far along." With Wagoner conceding defeat in North America, the results probably won't get much farther along, either. What's that sound? Why, it's Toyota, Honda and Nissan letting out a war whoop as they thunder down their American happy hunting ground.

It probably seemed like a good idea at the time: introduce American car buyers to Nissan’s new cute ‘ute in an episode of NBC’s hit show Heroes. And so we see the Rogue in the hands of a world saving high school cheerleader– ensuring its chick-car status for all eternity. And then rogue crooks swipe the CUV and drive it to Mexico. Demonstrating what? The car is easy to boost? Why didn’t technopath Micah Sanders get a booster seat, take the wheel and show Ford the true meaning of “sync my ride?” All of which leaves me wondering: is the Rogue good enough to survive its own marketing?   

Automotive News [AN] reports that GM's recent cutbacks in pickup truck production weren't deep enough. While Ford, Dodge and Nissan dealers are all sitting on a relatively health supply of full-size pickups– 100, 120 and 105 days respectively– GM's inventory channel is stuffed to the gills. "As of Dec. 1, inventories of the Chevrolet Silverado (153 days supply) and GMC Sierra (150 days) were bloated despite $5,000 rebates on 2007 models." The automaker's desperation to move the moribund metal is showing-up at the sharp end. "Ken Fichtner, owner of Fichtner Chevrolet in Laurel, Mont., says he took an additional 10 Silverados last month, at GM's request. This month GM asked him to take an additional 20 trucks, and he said no. 'I am sitting on a 13-month supply right now," Fichtner says. 'They wanted me to go to an 18-month supply but we only sell 10 a month, and I'm in the heart of truck country!'" As Frank Williams predicted back in April, there's only one way this is gonna go: GM will have to put massive incentives on its pickups, dinging residual values and further eroding the profits delivered by GM's former cash cows. And THEN cut production even more.   

“It would have helped to have a little bit of sunshine.” What a strange statement. Not “General Motors is prepared to weather the economic downturn ahead.” More like “Darn it! Just when we got our new picnic blanket spread out, it’s started to rain!” But then GM CEO Rick Wagoner is a GM lifer, a Harvard-trained beancounter, a man whose self-effacement hides a genuine lack of leadership. “We look forward to the sunny days,” Wagoner continues. “But realistically we can’t plan on it for next year.” So what IS GM’s plan?

Rick Wagoner took GM's helm on May 1, 2003. Despite an arterial spray of red ink, the former CFO refused to set a timetable for a titanic turnaround. In fact, from that day to this, Wagoner has never publicly declared ANY hard targets for returning GM's North American operations to profitability. Not sales per dealer. Or profit per vehicle. Or total turnover. Or market share. Or, God forbid, profit. Nothing.

GM is a public company, with tens of thousands of shareholders and workers. Why haven't these "stakeholders" held Rick Wagoner's feet to the fire and demanded a quantifiable turnaround plan? We need only look at Carlos Ghosn’s Nissan revival to understand the importance of clearly defined targets in a crisis. We need only look at GM to understand what happens when a Board of Bystanders allows upper management to drown out all opposition by playing "Crisis? What crisis?" at full volume.

For one thing, if you don’t have quantifiable goals, you don’t have accountability. Internally, this leads to bad decisions which lead to… more bad decisions. Incompetent managers fail upwards. The same people who brought over the Pontiac GTO from Australia are bringing over the Pontiac G8. The same marketing mavens who counseled potential Saturn buyers to “Rethink American” now counsel them to “Rethink,” while their own status remains quo. In GM’s land of the blind, the no-eyed man is king.

Externally, the lack of accountability frees Wagoner’s mob to justify GM's declining fortunes without a single mea culpa. Over the years, they’ve dismissed “bad news” as politics (unfair currency exchange), inherited burdens (union health care), economic factors beyond their control (housing market downturn, rising gas prices), and the sad but temporary result of their brilliant master plan (reducing incentives and fleet sales). The bad news continues. As do the excuses.

GM's favorite "excuse" is actually simple misdirection. Again and again, Wagoner and Co. point at “The Next Big Thing” and predict "sunny days" ahead. In consideration of GM's $2.1b annual ad budget and their own ignorance, the mainstream press propagates this "bright shiny object" spin– and ignores the mediocrity blighting all of GM's eight U.S. resident brands and the vast majority of its 51 product portfolio.

The media’s willingness to give GM a pass on hard targets, to simply buy into GM’s “pay no attention to that market share loss behind the curtain” ploy, never ceases to amaze me. The Associated Press’ interview with Wagoner is a perfect example; it lays out the CEO's “strategy” without any serious inspection. 

“Wagoner said ‘the deal’ topped the reasons people bought a GM vehicle in 2004. Now, thanks to stylish new models like the Cadillac CTS sedan and Buick Enclave crossover, the company says exterior styling tops the list, followed by value for the money. ‘I don't want to mess with that. I want to keep building on that,’ he said.”

Huh? Smack dab in the middle of GM’s Toe Tag Christmas sale, just when the company is loading massive incentives on its products and advertising nothing BUT the deal, Wagoner says his customers are now buying GM vehicles based on style rather than price. Where’s the supporting data for that assertion? Even if we accept this as some kind of cunning plan, what does it mean for GM's future?

Forget it. Style isn't GM’s new secret weapon. GM’s chronic Attention Deficiency Disorder– enabled by a leader who refuses to draw a line in the sand and take responsibility for his company's sinking fortunes–  tells us that the automaker will be off chasing the next Next Big Thing just as soon as sales and/or hype over the Enclave/CTS/Malibu subsides.

The truth is, without real leadership, without a CEO with a clear and clearly expressed sense of direction and urgency, GM doesn’t stand a chance. For those of you who think Wagoner has sufficient situational awareness and decisiveness to get the job done, I leave you with his response to a question about the impact of new federal fuel standards.

"I do think the challenge is really twofold. It's not just, 'Can you get the technology?', but 'What happens if people don't want to buy it? That is the question mark that concerns me, but we'll have plenty of time to play that out."

I recently visited the Saturn website to check on an Astra factoid. I was surprised to discover that the brand has dropped the "American" part of their "Rethink American" advertising strapline. It's now just "Rethink," with various bits added as and when needed (e.g. Rethink Hybrids). The idea of a generic prefix, followed by a campaign-specific suffix, is not new. Mercedes dropped it's "Engineered like no other car in the world" shtick a long while ago, in favor of a revolving series of "FILL IN THE BLANK like no other car in the world" pronouncements. Nissan has been shifting this and that for some time now, from Expectations to, uh, I can't remember. Which is the problem. While a flexible strapline certainly helps the marketing mavens, like any brand extension, a one-size-doesn't-fit-all marketing solution weakens the impact of the original, highly-focused brand promise. In fact, none of these automakers keep their strapline front and center on their web pages. In any case, Saturn's shift in my expectations got me to re-thinking like no other journalist in the world. What IS a Saturn? I rang up Kyle Johnson, Saturn's Director of Communications, to ask him about the streamlined strapline, cupholders and Saturn's Unique Selling Point.

It’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas; at least in Dearborn. Ford has reinstated merit raises for their white collar workers. Bonuses for its blue collared brigade are under consideration. Ford’s global manufacturing guru Joe Heinrichs figures “it’s important to reward people for doing the right thing.” Which is… three straight quarters of besting Wall Street’s paltry projections and slowing the Way Fordward’s cash burn. With the long anticipated sale of Jaguar and Land Rover only days away, it would seem that Mulally’s machine is running smoothly. Yes Virginia, there is a Santa Claus.

No question: FoMoCo’s financial outlook is festively plump compared to last year’s lump of coal. That’s mainly due to the fact that Alan Mulally’s minions have slashed and burned their way through the Blue Oval’s bloated bureaucracy. After paying off the United Auto Workers, they’ve taken an axe to Ford’s chronic overproduction, shuttering plants, eliminating shifts and generally cleaning house.

Bottom line: the Blue Oval’s downsized their cash burn from an estimated $17b per year, down to a measly $12b to $14b per year.

To celebrate this turn of events (i.e. better balance their books and lighten a debt load that makes Paraguay look flush), Ford recently spawned 62m more shares of common stock. And the stock found buyers too, thanks to the ongoing belief that you (and by that I mean Ford) CAN cut your way to prosperity. Why all Ford has to do to turn its ass around is… right-size the company to the point where production meets demand!

Only demand for Ford products shows no signs of recovery. The truth is, Ford’s “product lead” turnaround is still stuck in neutral. Indeed, the Blue Oval Boyz market share continues to erode. Reviewing their latest internal report card, Ford’s number crunchers cringed when even their employer failed to meet its modest market share projections: 13 percent. Currently (through November) Ford reps just 12.4 percent of the North American pie, and the slice is getting smaller by the day.

Not surprisingly, fingers were pointed outside the Glass House, at FBOC (Factors Beyond our Control). The usual suspects were all present and accounted for: the “faster than expected” market shift from SUVs and trucks to small cars and crossovers; the rise in fuel prices and the fall in the economy as a result of the sub-prime mortgage crisis. Absent, of course, was any acknowledgement that, at this point, they should know better.

Ford simply ignored the North American customer. As analysts (and TTAC) have pointed out on numerous occasions, FoMoCo’s mélange of motorized product is truck heavy. Currently, the Ford brand offers customers six car models and nine trucks. Mercury’s ratio is better at 4:3 (cars to trucks). Lincoln, FoMoCo’s luxury marque, is more vulnerable, with only two car platforms and three trucks.

With the demise of the Panther platform (Crown Victoria, Mercury Marquis, Lincoln Town Car), three car models will disappear from the Ford roster, resulting in an even heavier truck-based portfolio. The Ford Focus is FoMoCo’s smallest model, its only American economy car. The 2007 TTAC Ten Worst nominee’s moving slightly more units than the vine-withered model it replaced. The automaker’s next next big thing, the Ford Flex, is just that: another big “thing.”

Bottom line: through November, FoMoCo’s car sales are already down over 24 percent from last year. So even the few Ford passenger cars available aren’t winning over consumers.

Auto analysts Robert Barry (Goldman, Sachs & Co) and Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.) both reckon Ford’s decade long decline is nowhere near done. Not unlike Toyota, Honda and Nissan, Barry realizes that “demand growth will be greatest for smaller cars” and that without them, Ford’s market share is simply “unsustainable.”

Worse, Barry also contends that Ford’s current production-related savings are fleeting at best.  Because of increasing regulatory demands (i.e. new Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards), Ford will need to spend more on each and every vehicle produced. In his analysis Barry figures the new UAW contract will save Ford about $4b in “structural cost reductions.” The automaker will need that money, and then some, to the tune of $11.9b, just to keep up.

The Detroit News reports that Ford Americas President, Mark Fields expects the 2007 US light vehicle market to hit its lowest mark in about a decade (16.4m units). Fields also expects that number to fall further next year, to around 15.3m units. Figuring 12.5 percent market share, that means Ford will move around 1,912,500 units. 

Of course this all depends on an economy that, the Federal Reserve figures, is poised to continue to weaken. “Modest” Mark said Ford is “planning conservatively.” They’ll “look at things on a month-to-month basis” and “take appropriate actions if things go worse than expected.”

Bottom line: Happy New Year!

As we reported yesterday, Mercedes is working on anti-driver fatigue gizmology. Yahoo! Canada reports that Toyota has decided that the world needs more 'lerts. ToMoCo's recruiting the research team that developed Nintendo's "brain training" games to help them ride herd on driver alertness, specifically as it involves the elderly. Their wakeupmobile concept will monitor the helmsman's "brain activity, automatic nerve reflexes, attentiveness and other mental and physical conditions" and then stimulate the drowsy driver through a variety of means– including cranking-up the AC "to invigorate the driver's brain." Toyota hopes to put some of the systems they develop into use by 2015 to 2020. Nissan has also expressed interest in research in this area, but has made no decision to pursue it. No word from Buick who's rumored to be surveying their remaining customers to determine if A) they're still alive and B) they can understand the system's advantages.

Automakers are justifiably proud of the fast, safe, clean and comfortable products they’ve unleashed upon the automotive market. But today’s carmakers have entered into a Faustian bargain with the electronic systems that make these four-wheeled wonders possible, and it’s busy biting them and their customers in their collective keister. Never mind the inherent safety hazards of protecting drivers from their own stupidity. The heavy reliance on technology has fundamentally altered the ownership experience, particularly when these techno-wondercars are repaired and resold.

This problem is particularly acute for high-end, mostly European luxury makes. In the past, upmarket brands justified their price premiums by offering superior performance, handling, comfort and refinement. As less-expensive brands have narrowed the gap, luxury makers have turned to electronic wizardry to create a distinctive distinction. But stuffing more stuff into the cars invites Murphy and his Law to ride shotgun.

Your humble author spent four years battling these issues as a BMW dealership technician and regularly saw Herr Murphy working his mojo. My favorite horror story of that time: a BMW E46 3-Series that was rendered impotent (warning lights aplenty, transmission stuck in second gear) by… wait for it… the radio.

The E46 radio is connected to the engine, transmission and ABS computers (and many others) by a network called the K-bus. When the radio died, it shorted out the K-bus, freaking-out the other computers. Every system that could turn on a warning light did so and the transmission computer went into ‘limp in’ mode: second gear only when in ‘Drive.’

While these sorts of gremlins may be more common in the luxury brands (Mercedes owners unite!), the same systems and problems are now appearing in more mainstream machines. Nissan owners who've put their Intelligent Key fob in the same pocket as their cell phone have discovered that the phone signal scrambles the key programming, rendering it impotent. Honda owners with a persistent ‘check engine’ light may have a major emissions system failure, or they may have slight corrosion on an electrical terminal in the fuse box. No make or model with electronic systems is immune.

Electronic failures differ from mechanical mishaps in important ways. Most mechanical items fail gradually and provide warning signs (noises, visible wear, etc.) indicating that something is amiss. Electronics are usually an either/or situation; they either work or they don’t. They also rarely warn their dependents before they fail. Mechanical systems can often be tweaked or bypassed (e.g. looping heater hoses to bypass a leaking heater core). Electronic systems usually don’t respond to duct tape and WD-40.

This electronic complexity can make for an expensive and time-consuming ownership experience. Increasingly, these systems can only be serviced by dealerships, whose technicians need a lot of (expensive) time and (expensive) training to diagnose the problems. Sometimes, the problems are so subtle that the only recourse is to install part A and see if the problem goes away.

When the owner comes back in a week with the same problem, install part B and repeat until the problem, or the owner, goes away. And make no mistake: these parts are getting mighty expensive. The aforementioned BMW radio lists for $590, and no $79 Pep Boys radio has a K-bus connection. Similarly, the days of cutting a spare key at the hardware store for $5 are long gone.

When the car is under warranty, the customer doesn’t pay the parts and labor costs, and service loaner cars might make frequent dealership visits tolerable. But imagine (or testify) what happens when the warranty ends. Electronic systems are not immune from age-related failures; the owner must bear the full brunt of these costs.

This leaves an owner with a set of tough decisions. Does he fix the problem or try to ignore it? Can he ignore it? If the transmission won’t shift out of second gear, the car isn’t very useful. Are the parts available, new or used? If only used parts are available, how long will they last?  Should he just get rid of the car for something newer and/or more reliable?

That last question indicates the area where electronic overkill hurts the car owner the most. Trouble-prone cars have always had low resale values/a shortage of willing buyers. When the troubles are difficult to locate, devilish to rectify and expensive to boot, it only amplifies the situation.

Unfortunately, this is difficult to see in the available data because used car prices are affected by multiple factors. The cachet of MINI and VW, for example, keeps their resale prices high– despite their relatively poor e-reliability records.

Nevertheless, as heavily electronic cars age, the cost of repairs will overwhelm the market values of those cars. This may be the final ironic twist of modern automotive electronics: rendering eight-year-old cars about as valuable as eight-year-old computers.

Chrysler and Nissan are reportedly in talks to share technology for trucks and small cars. "People with knowledge of the companies' discussions" told Bloomberg that Nissan wants Chrysler to help them salvage their floundering full-size truck line, and Chrysler wants access to Nissan's small car expertise. It won't be the first such agreement for either company; Nissan announced earlier this week they're going to supply Suzuki with rebadged Frontiers in return for minicars for the European and Japanese markets, while Chrysler will begin producing VW-badged minivans late next year. Pretty soon we're going to need the automotive equivalent of a DNA test to determine who built what for whom.