You might say that this plan– getting Uncle Sam to subsidize new car payments– is a warm-up for the main event: the big ass bailout. And you’d be both wrong and right. Right, because Detroit is using all the political leverage it can muster to extract whatever drops of sustenance it can secure from the federal teat. In that effort, Motown’s running all sorts of ideas up the proverbial flagpole, including perverting manipulating the federal tax code. And lo and behold, Toyota saluted it! “Toyota would be supportive of moves such as tax deductibility of auto loans,” ToMoCo’s U.S. Veep for corporate affairs said on his post- October-bloodbath conference call. Needless to say, GM was non-committally committed to the idea, in a general sort of way. “It’s really critical for the governments and the banks to aggressively help us to revive the credit market and facilitate consumer lending activities,” Mike DiGiovanni, a GM sales analyst, said on his conference call reported by Bloomberg. As for the “wrong” part, this measure, and the “cash for clunkers” initiative making the rounds, wouldn’t provide NEARLY enough relief for Motown’s mauled motoring mavens. But hey, you gotta start somewhere… Oh wait! They already got those $25b worth of D.O.E. low-interest retooling loans. Only not, ’cause they’re hung-up on “technicalities.” Sorry. Carry on.

In the same press release in which General Motors revealed its 45 percent October sales hit, The General announced that it had brought forward its [now] annual Red Tag Sale. “We’ll do our part to continue fighting against these significant economic headwinds by bringing consumers the highest quality, most fuel efficient and affordable cars, trucks and crossovers that we can,” GM Marketing Maven Mark LaNeve wrote. [How reassuring is that— given GM’s product development freeze.] “To that end, LaNeve announced that GM’s no-haggle Red Tag Event… will provide great deals on most new vehicles in GM’s portfolio by offering a special Red Tag vehicle price and customer cash back. In addition, GM’s recently announced ‘Financing That Fits’ program enables consumers to find financing at affordable rates from GMAC and thousands of other banks, credit unions and financing institutions.” That’s it? No haggle plus the usual blizzard of incentives, special offers, discounts, rebates, trade-in allowance, finance offers and $2k-off coupons? GM must not have read Steven Lang’s “MSRP RIP.” Meanwhile, The Detroit News reports that Toyota’s extended its “Saved by Zero” zero percent finance offers on 11 vehicles ’til December first. Guess who’s gonna win this one? [make the jump for examples of GM Toe Taggers]

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Honda’s press release puts the number at 28.4 percent, but that’s using Daily Selling Rate nonsense. In simple terms, Honda sold 25.2 percent fewer units in calendar October 2008 than in the same period last year; which puts them in the same boat as Toyota. Only two models showed sales upsides: the Honda Fit and Acura TL. The Fit has been capacity constrained forever and is still a relatively modest player at 6,478 units for the month. The TL is likewise a niche vehicle which jumped from 3,421 units last year to 4,340 this October thanks to the all new 2009 TL. But, Acura has two disaster products on it’s hands; the forever poor-selling RL range topper and the near luxury mini-ute RDX. RDX sales collapsed from last year’s already low 1,937 to an abysmal 647 units. Back over at the Honda brand, one surprise in the numbers is the collapse of Accord sales, down from 30,936 to only 19,783, a 36 percent drop in Honda’s #1 selling product. The Odyssey, Element and MDX also all posted larger than average declines. However, for some reason the Ridgeline’s fall was a little less than the average falloff. Cash on the hood effect? Year to date, Honda is still up slightly over 2007, but that record seems likely to fall over these next two months. During the first half of 2008 Honda seemed to be playing in a different ballpark than the rest of the US auto business. But from summer on they have regressed to the mean. But hey, there is one fun-fact buried in the numbers: Honda took sales credit for one unit of the FCX Clarity hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. I wonder who the lucky customer is?

Anyone fancy a Lexus? Now’s a good time to saunter over to their swanky digs; October sales at Toyota’s luxury division are off by 37.6 percent. With Toyota sales down 24.2 percent, call it a combined 25.9 percent decline. Some notable [non] performers: Camry (down 12.8 percent), Prius (-13.6), Highlander (-29.2) Tundra (-65.4). So what’s up? Corolla (+2.2 percent) and the Sequoia (of all things), up 16.3 percent. Notable from Toyota’s press release: any mention whatsoever of the U.S. economic climate. It’s all business with these guys.

Everybody who knows me knows I’m a tightfisted son of a bitch. I may own Benzes for their profits, but gas sippers are my daily drivers.  My wife’s daily driver has been an old Volvo wagon (which she loves). And like many of you, I’m nearly OCD when it comes to buying quality on the cheap. When Robert asked me to find him a $5000 car, I found a $4000 car. Why? Because $4000 is the new $5000. For those of you contemplating a new ride and have the cash, now’s a good time to buy. The Manufacturers’ Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) is dead.

Reality check. At the moment, there are only two types of car companies: the living and the dying. Brands such as Toyota, Honda, VW, Porsche, Mercedes, BMW, Audi, MINI and Nissan still have healthy balance sheets and great products. As long as they stay true to their core talents, today’s recession will lead to long-term global progression. But even though these brands offer quality vehicles, the money to support the demand has disappeared. That’s bad for some customers. Good for everyone else.

Most credit-driven customers have been cut off. Many of the banks that were ‘helped’ by the recent bailout are also among the largest auto finance lenders in the U.S.: Capital One, Citibank and Bank of America. The bank’s balance sheets are looking better– in the same that clothes can hide leprosy. Unfortunately for the ‘fleeced’ taxpayer, and the political ‘yes’ men, the banks are hoarding their new found, taxpayer-funded wealth.

This net drop in the amount of money truly available has resulted in a cliff-face 20 to 40 percent drop in new car sales for even the “good” brands. Although these manufacturers aren’t selling vehicles at Buick levels, the previous customer dealer paradigm has rolled-over and died. To say it’s a buyer’s market would be like saying a jailhouse crack dealer has sway over an incarcerated junkie.

The consumer strategy required to make the best of a bad situation (for the dealer) is simple enough. When you visit that big fishbowl called the dealership just say no to whatever’s on offer and wait. Or leave. There’s no ‘take it or leave it’ or ‘you really need to buy today’ when the inventory is stacked to the roof and the customers are none deep. If you want to squeeze the best deal, all you have to do is say ‘No!’ for a week and enjoy what amounts to a Chinese auction.

Sticker? What sticker? Brand new 2008 Mercedes GLs are going– or not– for $14k off sticker. The same vehicle can be had for a three-year lease for $5k down, $800 a month. Did I say $800? How about $700? $600? I’ve never seen anything like it. Pay no attention to Edmunds or anyone else. Published deals have nothing to do with anything anymore. Desperate doesn’t even begin to cover it.

The same reality applies to the used car markets. Last night I saw a 2003 Mercedes SL500 go for a mere $20 grand, a 2006 Scion Xb sell for $9200, and a loaded 2008 Hyundai Santa Fe Limited with less than a thousand miles no sale at $17k. All of these cars were in strong demand when they were first released. Now they’re just casualties of a credit-driven economy and a repo-saturated car market. In a recession, used car vehicles pick up some of the slack. But not today. Even the market leaders of not too long ago are in a depreciation death spiral.

Then we have the ‘patients.’ GM, Ford and Chrysler are fighting for their survival. Many of their models will not be replaced (through Ch11 or otherwise), and virtually all have record levels of supply. From a 200+ day supply of Corvettes to fields of near-new rental crapmobiles (e.g. Pontiac Grand Prix and Chrysler Sebring), there’s nothing but metal to be moved. Buickman is sending brand new Chevy Silverados our the door at $10k. Again, just say no and reap the rewards. Stupid deals are smart. Don’t be what William Shatner calls timid negotiatiors these days: “mamby-pamby.”

The situation is even more ridiculous at small dead brands such as HUMMER, Saab and Volvo. Their dealers face the morbid task of selling cars that with virtually no marketing dollars behind them. A 2008 Volvo S80 may theoretically compete with the Lexus LS and Mercedes E-Class, but no one knows or cares. A non-competitive product with no market presence will eventually go out the door for a price that is closer to the lower car class.

RF and I are still debating the ‘when’ of car buying during this current carmaggedon. I believe now’s a great time to buy. Robert points at the sheer volume of unsold inventory at the new and used car level, and the lack of consumer confidence (tied to the housing market). Whatever the scenario, however long it lasts, however MORE desperate things become (fancy buying a C11 Malibu for under $5k?), MSRP for all but the most exclusive vehicles is RIP. Go get ’em tiger!

“Yes, the auto industry is big. And important. But Congress shouldn’t dole out more taxpayer dollars to save firms that missed opportunities to help themselves.” And so begins The Dallas Morning News‘ editorial advising its readers that Motown should be left to its own devices. The News is home to one of automotive journalism’s genuine gems: writer Terry Box. Box has always been loyal to his readers’ best interests; this editorial has his fingerprints all over it. Be that as it may, Motown may wish to point out that Texas is home to Toyota’s massive– and now underutilized– Tundra factory. Of course, it’s also the state where you’ll find GM’s Arlington plant, once-proud maker of the GMC Yukon, GMC Yukon XL, Chevrolet Suburban, Chevrolet Tahoe and Cadillac Escalade. No matter how you slice it, The Lone Star state has at least one dog in this fight. Make the jump for the rest of the ed [thanks to peakwarehouse for the link].

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In a few years, we might not have much of a domestic car industry anymore. And I’ll be grumpy, because despite all the stupid General Motors made out over the years, from crappy products (Equinox) to crappily built products (everything from 1972 to 2002), they really had some cars that were fascinating to car lovers. And that’s part of why they’re going out of business: they made interesting cars with mediocrity. They should have stuck to Toyota’s business plan and made extremely boring cars very well. In Europe, though, that’s what GM did. I’ve just driven the Vauxhall Zafira, and I can tell you that if GM had it in America they’d be trillionaires. Because it’s the most boring car I’ve ever driven.

As Detroit remains bogged down in the Russian winter of their hubris and mismanagement, Nissan is launching a counter-offensive. Not only is Nissan joining Toyota in launching zero-percent financing on select models, they’re even launching factory leases at a time when nearly every finance company is running away from the lease business screaming. Automotive News [sub] reports that zero-percent financing is available on Altima, Rogue, Sentra, Versa and Murano, with all the “qualifying buyers” mumbo-jumbo that could keep many from the deal. Nissan is also launching factory-subsidized $199-a-month leases on the Altima sedan and Rogue, as well as extending a $339-a-month lease offer on its newly redesigned Maxima. If you just want a deal on basic transportation and don’t care much about financing, Nissan is also rolling out a stripped Versa sedan with a MSRP under $10k. “We are making a bold statement to our customers and to our dealers that we’re here for them,” says Nissan Division Vice President Al Castignetti. “If you need financing, we have it. If you want to lease a vehicle, we have it. If you need to buy an inexpensive car, we’ll have it for you.” While feasting on the dying corpses of the Detroit Three.

“Toyota Motor Corp. trumped General Motors (GM) in total car sales during the first nine months of 2008 to become the world’s top car producer for the first time,” the Mainichi Shimbun reports from Tokyo. “Huh,” say you, “hasn’t ToMoCo trampled GM already?” Not exactly, and not officially. But they are kicking ass and GM to the bottom. Unstoppably, one may add. “GM’s sales between January and September in 2008 were down 5.8 percent to 6,655,751, according to figures released by the company on Wednesday. Toyota’s sales for the same period, including those of subsidiaries Daihatsu Motor Co. and Hino Motors, were 7,051,029, almost unchanged from last year,” writes the Tokyo broadsheet with a kuso-eating grin on their faces, in the same sentence dispelling rumors that ToMoCo had contracted the galloping auto trade tuberculosis. [NB: Mainichi is one of the top three Nipponese papers,thick with Japanese politicos. Two of Mainichi’s CEOs became Prime Ministers of the Land of the Rising Corolla.] And yet the fat lady has not sung…

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General Motors is on a crash course towards bankruptcy. The company once known as the world’s largest automaker is burning cash so rapidly most experts agree that it won’t last through next year. Although Ford has more money at hand, having mortgaged everything up to and including its logo, the Blue Oval is also spending its way towards C11. Chrysler? DOA. In response, Congress recently approved massive loan guarantees for the industry. But Motown’s supporters are clamoring for another, equally massive handout. As our duly elected representatives argue how best to save Detroit, its champions warn of looming disaster. Still it must be asked: should The Shrinking Three be left to face market forces unaided by Uncle Sugar?

The D2.8 are huge, their supporters say. The domestic automakers supposedly account for six outside jobs– dealers, suppliers, service station attendants, and hosts of others– for every job within. In a worst-case scenario, two million jobs could disappear, says David Cole, head of the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor. Through unemployment and/or Medicaid, those workers would quickly soak-up tax money, Cole claims.

“Because of the fragile state of suppliers, a dying GM or a Ford would take key suppliers with it,” says Cole. That would bollix the supply chain for the transplants. But Cole says that a mere $10b worth of prevention could be worth $100b of cure– his estimate for the costs of bailout and cleaning up the mess, should the companies be allowed to fail, respectively. (This is a downsized estimate; Cole’s Center’s “catastrophe studies”predicted a $200 – $300b hit to the economy from an automaker’s failure, equivalent to 2 percent of GNP.)

An odd consequence of failure to bail might be to hamper environmental protection, says Greg Nowell, a political science professor at SUNY Albany. Since the early 1980s, when the US gave the Japanese an offer they couldn’t refuse (“voluntary” import quotas), the Japanese manufacturers have always more than met US environmental standards. They’ve “let Detroit do the foot-dragging” in the political arena, says Nowell. With Detroit gone, however, they might resist tighter regulations by threatening to take their marbles and go home. “In terms of environmental regulations, [the demise of the US industry] would be a game-changer,” says Nowell.

Nonetheless, neither Nowell nor three other experts interviewed by TTAC favor bailout. “Cole assumes that [following bailout] they will start getting a positive cash flow, which is not a foregone conclusion,” says David Dapice, an economist at Harvard and Tufts Universities. “It’s one thing to have a cash transfusion so you can keep operating at a loss, and another to have a game plan for profitability.”

Cole insists US cars are improving. “My wife has the new Saturn Outlook,” he says. “The execution has improved dramatically.” But the December issue of Consumer Reports recommends against the Outlook, and says GM is a “mixed bag,” while “Ford’s reliability is now on par with good Japanese automakers.”

Dapice suggests that socializing health care costs might be a better approach than helping the auto companies directly. This would eliminate the transplants’ advantage of having younger workers with lower health care costs, and far fewer pensioners. According to the Detroit consulting firm Harbour-Felax, for each car it manufactures, GM spends $1,635 on health care for both current and retired American workers. For Toyota, the comparative figure is just $215.

Socializing health care costs would also have the advantage of avoiding picking winners, or in this case, losers. “I don’t think the US does well with industrial policy since it’s so political,” says Dapice. And “If you want a stimulus package, it might make sense to give money to [the city of] Detroit, or the state, so they can keep their bridges from collapsing. But I don’t think it makes sense to just pump money into failing companies.”

Regarding Cole’s warnings about key suppliers going under, Chris Knittle, a professor of economics at UC Davis isn’t worried. He says that if GM goes out of business, other manufacturers will pick up the slack.

If past is prescient, the demise of the shrinking three would brook no loss to automotive innovation, says Knittle, Volt notwithstanding (its projected price, 40 Gs, insures scant market penetration). The U.S. industry has not exactly been on the cutting edge for at least the last half century.

“What is fundamentally wrong with the US automobile industry?” Nobel economist Robert Solow asks rhetorically. “Why has it been unable to compete adequately, even with American plants owned by Japanese, European, and Korean automakers?”

“[American automakers] have a lot of corporate inertia,” says Knittle. And “when they can always fall back on the government to bail them, there’s even less incentive to change.” Noting that the market culls the unfit, breaking ground for new companies, he says that through bailouts, “You are taking out one of the mechanisms in which a market economy improves productivity.”

TTAC commentator Redbarchetta writes… “I was wondering after seeing that NASCAR picture in the latest post. Has there been any word on what happens to NASCAR funding? I’m mainly talking about GM and Chrysler since they are closest to death and cutting EVERYTHING. It would make sense that they would stop supporting that also. I’m really not even a huge NASCAR fan so I don’t even know how something like that would impact the sport. I was also wondering, just for kicks since the government won’t let it totally collapse, but what happens to NASCAR if Detroit folds and they have no more manufacturer support or sponsorship? Would the sport collapse also or just become the Toyota Camry-athon?”

Bloomberg reports that GMAC has sent “Dear John” letters to an unspecified number of GM dealers. One of the missives informs GM stores that the captive financier will no longer provide them with financing to buy vehicles. “Turbulence in the markets reduced our access to funds and increased the cost of funds where available,” GMAC Chief Executive Officer Al de Molina explains. “In response, we adjusted our credit policy to reflect the reduced level of funding availability.” GMAC has also sent notification to other dealers– which could include some of the previously mentioned ones– that the franchisees will have to start repaying their loans after financed vehicles have been on lots for 180 days. Hang on; is this part of a conspiracy by GMAC’s majority owners– Chrysler-owners Cerberus Capital– to force GM to buy ChyrCo? No se. Meanwhile, more details on the changes after the jump. Meanwhile, bye-bye GM dealers. “You’re increasing their payments or you’re taking away financing altogether for a lot of dealers, which basically has the effect of shutting many of them down,” said Denny Fitzpatrick, chairman of the California New Car Dealers Association and Fitzpatrick Chevrolet Hummer in Concord, California. “Dealers just don’t have that cash lying around.”

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Chrysler is dead. Look for a Chapter 7 filing soon; that’s a liquidation plan, not reorganization. The judge will part-out and sell ChryCo’s few valuable assets to the highest bidders. There will be no “Hail Mary” pass to General Motors, no government rescue, no money from Cerberus to keep its corpse from the grave. Yes, the mythical three-headed dog of Hades does keep souls from escaping Hell, try as they might.

Despite GM’s desire for the $9b in cash supposedly on Chrysler’s books, the money comes with even bigger liabilities: health care, pensions, taxes, supplier obligations, the works. In fact, Chrysler is saddled with as much as $27b worth of claims. Those claimholders have no interest in letting Chrysler unwind in the hands of GM– which would keep all those claims unpaid. Better to just get it over with and pay it out now. The best idea for Chrysler is, was and will be immediate liquidation. Add the proceeds from the sale of Chryco’s assets to that cash pile and there might be as much as $20b+ to disburse.

The first ones to dine on the cash are Chrysler’s lenders, led by Goldman Sachs and JPMorganChase. They originally lent Cerberus about $10b or so to fund the acquisition from Daimler, with the hopes they could then sell the debt off to bigger schmucks. Well, they mostly failed at selling it, unloading only a portion, maybe about 40 percent (or so we’ve heard) at discount to some greater fools.

The banks are still stuck with the rest and they aren’t happy about it. If you were a sane banker in troubled financial times, would you transfer your repayment risk to General Motors, an equal if not even worse credit than Chrysler today? GM was counting on a government loan to GM to pay these lenders off– or at least guarantee their debt. Give Hank Paulson credit; he simply said “no way.” The Feds aren’t gonna take the heat for paying Wall Street off while jobs are lost.

So no, the bankers will never agree to a GM-Chryco Motors tie up. Better for them to take the priority position they get in liquidation today and take what they can. After all, Chrysler’s cash pile only gets smaller every day Chrysler continues to operate.

The second group that has a claim on Chrysler’s cash: vehicle owners. Yep, warranty claims out into the future. Remember, most recent vintage Chrysler vehicles (in service beginning in 8/07 and later) have powertrain for life warranties. The bankruptcy judge has to set aside funds to cover those claims. Say… $3b worth.

The third group: labor. The United Auto Workers (UAW) negotiated a contract that requires Chrysler to shovel $10b into a health care trust (a.k.a. VEBA) for retirees. Even the UAW wasn’t crazy enough let GM takeover Chrysler and absorb this liability when GM can’t even pay what it promised to the union. In any case, this is an unsecured claim. It’s doubtful the UAW could legally stop a sale to GM, but they can make life unpleasant for an automaker.  Heck if the workers are going to lose their jobs anyway, they might as well get what they can now for retirees.

And last: working capital claims for the balance. Unpaid vendors, employee wind downs, taxes, and the rest. Maybe another $4b or so. All told, $27 billion in claims against the cash plus whatever the Court can sell the rest of the assets for. Call it $10 to $15b. Best of all, assets sold out of bankruptcy come with no liability tail for the buyer, which make them much more attractive. No pension obligations, no warranty claims, no retiree health care. Clean and simple. And you don’t even have to take the UAW contract!

I reckon that there are four major components of Chrysler that will get sold. First, the Jeep brand. Although known worldwide, it really has only has one unique product (the Wrangler). But it’s cheap to build, generates a ton of profit per vehicle and will never go out of style. Yep, wrap that up. Maybe it’s worth $3b?

Second, the minivan biz. Already having consolidated assembly in one plant (Windsor), it’s easy to just supply other automakers like GM and VW. Hmm, do I hear Magna calling? So let’s say it’s worth $5b.

Third, RAM trucks hecho in Mexico. Nissan needs a truck and they’ve already agreed to buy their next Titan built in Chrysler’s Saltillo plant. Ok, so maybe it’s 100k units per year only. Might as well buy the plant and the rights to the truck. How much did it cost Toyota to develop the Tundra and build its now underutilized San Antonio truck plant? Let’s put a $2b price tag on this.

And fourth, Chrysler’s parts supply division. I don’t know how many Chryco rigs are on the road, but they’re going to need parts for a long time. Existing parts inventory that’s worth something plus profits from sales that will continue for years. So we’ll put a $1b price tag there.

So are you getting my drift now? There’s no GM-Chrysler deal ever. The government can’t stomach funding a deal where jobs are lost with taxpayer money. Better to shut Chrysler down in bankruptcy, and let Cerberus lick its wounds. Those jobs were going to be lost with or without GM in the picture.

In just a week’s time, we will be celebrating the election of President-Elect Obama McCain Palin Charles Barkley. Barkley, a retired NBA star who recently announced that he’s running for to be governor of Alabama in 2014. Anyway, back to President Charles Barkley: the thing is, Charles Barkley is really angry at the mismanagement of the Big 3 (I made that up). So he wants to ride around in a presidential limo that’s not from one of them. What should President Charles Barkley’s limo be? You can assume he stands at a more average height than his real-life 6’4″, and any car currently in production in the world is fair game. My choice, by the way, would be either a Toyota Sequoia or a Hyundai Genesis.

Not our man Warren Brown, obviously; although the Washington Post’s automotive critic (and I mean that in the nicest possible way) recently tore Ford a new you-know-what for replacing the Escape’s rear discs with drums. No, I speak here of Steven Pearlstein, who’s ready to put the meat on the bones of DetN Auto Editor Manny Lopez’ contention that’s there’s a bi-coastal conspiracy of nattering nabobs of negativism ready to let Detroit die (by its own hand, but who’s counting?). “You can just imagine [ED: hear] the pitch from the populists of the Michigan congressional delegation: If the government is willing to invest $250 billion to bail out pinstriped bankers, then the least it could do is throw an extra $10 billion to rescue the domestic auto industry and the millions of workers and retirees who depend on it. There’s only one difference: The government will make money on its bank investment, while the GM-Chrysler deal is a lemon.” Regular TTAC readers will know Pearlstein’s rationale without having to read it. But if Hayden Christensen can make jumping look cool, well, why not?

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