In round one, GM retained its crown as the world's largest automaker by cheating; counting vehicles it produces as a minority partner in a Chinese venture. In round two, GM beat Toyota for customer loyalty in a Polk Automotive survey; whose details the "we work for all the major automakers" company didn't want to discuss with TTAC (we'll keep trying). Now, in round three, we learn that Toyota may not have sold as many cars as GM in '07 (if you count the spurious Chinese models), but ToMoCo built more. The AP reports "Toyota Motor Corp. said Monday it had made a record 9,497,754 vehicles worldwide in 2007, up 5.3 percent from the previous year. That's about 213,000 more automobiles than the 9.284 million that GM made last year." Is this a case of The Emperor Strikes Back? Toyota brass say no. "Toyota's earlier, less precise production estimate for 2007 was 9.51 million. Toyota spokesman Paul Nolasco in Tokyo said there was no special reason for the change from the estimate." Other than what, accuracy? It looks like the numbers rivalry between the two automaking giants is the story that wouldn't die. At least here at TTAC.

"Joel, you wanna know something? Every now and then say, 'What the fuck.' 'What the fuck' gives you freedom. Freedom brings opportunity. Opportunity makes your future.' Of course, we here at TTAC say WTF on a regular basis, albeit in a more quizzical context. But it behooves Ford CEO Alan Mulally to put on those clear glasses of his (sunglasses would be metaphorically appropriate, but there you go) and deal with the fact that automaking is a risky business. Ford's amazingly talented engineers lack freedom. The engineers' freedom is Ford's opportunity. And opportunity can make FoMoCo's future. As a proud American, I am disgusted at the decline and fall of The Big 2.8. GM; I don't need to say anything about GM today. Chrysler is run by a man who already pocketed $200m for running a company into the ground. But Ford clearly know what they should be doing. Bold Moves? Yes please. But they aren't doing it. I blame Mulally. Mulally is the beancounter GM CEO Rick Wagoner thinks he is. Great. Good for him. Toyota-away I say. BUT DON'T BUILD TOYOTAS. Build something uniquely American and completely spectacular. And then, if you have to, go bankrupt. But do not do so building Camcord clones in Mexico. 

Did I or did I not just blog that Toyota Motor Sales U.S.A. Inc. Group Vice President and Lexus General Manager Mark Templin wants his customers to "hang out" down at the dealership? I did. WardsAuto now reports that the self-same suit says his dealers should learn from its Scion brand's customer relations– and give their customers the bum's rush a time-efficient service. "What Scion buyers want – and future Lexus customers will desire, as well – is a quicker purchasing and no-fuss service experience." Lexus' new goal is to make sure "customers who do come into the showroom to buy can get in and out fast, providing around-the-clock service facilities or offering pickup and delivery of vehicles needing maintenance." Templin sees no contradiction in these goals; the in-and-outers are young money, while the let-me-tell-you-about-my-hernia customers are old money. Can Lexus be all things to all demographics? No, but it can try. Oh, and we love that crack about the Newport Beach dealership “where each of the palm trees cost $100,000 apiece."  Is that God's way of telling a Lexus dealer he's making too much money?

So GM bitches and moans about a "perception gap," then shamelessly manipulates its worldwide sales figures to cling to its title of "world's largest automaker," while telling the world that the competition doesn't mean en effing thing, really. What's worse (if that's possible) is that the automotive press A) accepted GM's proclamation without looking into the numbers and B) failed to set things straight when Automotive News [sub] revealed the ruse. You will, for example, note that Autoblog's home page still has a link under "Breaking News" that reads "UPDATE: GM sold more in 2007 than Toyota." For a breath of fresh air in this despicable spinmeistering we turn to Rick Newman at U.S. News & World Report . After recounting the debacle, Newman says "GM should simply hand over the crown and get this all over with. It should agree with the Automotive News calculations, or rebook some '07 sales in '08, or even give back some cars if that's what's necessary to become No. 2… With clever leadership, GM can even benefit from becoming the underdog. But first it needs to attain No. 2—and give the analysts something else to write about." Amen.

On one hand, Polk Automotive's 2007 Loyalty Awards are "based on actual consumer transactions, with over 6 million household records per year being analyzed to determine the winners." On the other hand, I never trust a list of award winners that doesn't provide the full results, including the losers. So, GM wins the manufacturer loyalty category, with a staggering 62.89 percent customer retention rate. Take THAT Toyota! Uh, hang-on. ToMoCo wins the "make" loyalty category, with 56.69 percent customer retention. What's the diff? (We'll phone Polk later.) GM scoops six segment titles: Small Car (Saturn Ion, 23.5 percent), Large Car (Chevrolet Impala, 33.89 percent), Sports Car (Pontiac Solstice, 19.08 percent), Full-Size Pickup Truck (Chevrolet Silverado, 36.64 percent), Full-Size SUV (Chevrolet Suburban, 23.21 percent), and Prestige SUV (Cadillac Escalade, 33.61 percent). Toyota takes five segment titles: Mid-size Car (Toyota Prius, 33.34 percent), Luxury Car (Lexus ES, 32.8 percent), Prestige Luxury Car (Lexus LS, 44.41 percent), Compact Pickup Truck (Toyota Tacoma, 17.73 percent), and Midsize SUV (Lexus RX, 29.04 percent). There's something strange about all this. Did I mention that we're phoning Polk? 

On the subject of the contest between GM and Toyota for the title "World's Largest Automaker," Autoblog jeffe John Neff accepts an unnamed source (via Reuters) and pronounces GM the winner. Strangely (for a man who's devoted a sizable chunk of cyber-space to the battle), Neff writes that "owning this title makes little difference to either automaker." Readers familiar with Toyota's profits– which dwarf GM's– would be forgiven for thinking that's where Neff's going. Readers familiar with Toyota's growing U.S. market share– as opposed to GM's shrinking market share– would also be forgiven for thinking that's where the story is about to go. Uh-uh. "Even if Toyota does pass GM in global sales for 2008, however, we don't expect it will be able to keep the title for very long before the General snaps it back. GM has a stronger presence in China and is doing very well in emerging markets, while Europeans seem to have taken a liking to the Chevy brand over there. If GM can get its U.S. sales back up, we expect it will remain the world's largest automaker." And as my Dad likes to say, if my grandmother had wheels, she'd be a trolley car.

[FYI John Neff discusses blogs vs. the trad media with his pals here.] 

A month or so ago, I exchanged emails with an editor whose auto blog shall remain nameless. TTAC had slated his wide-eyed, spin-friendly coverage of some auto industry news. The offended ed wanted me to believe that our sites were brothers in arms. He argued that delivering "soft news" was just as valid a pursuit as purveying "hard news." In what turned out to be my final missive, I insisted that the term "soft news" is an oxymoron. We were actually discussing the difference between good journalism and bad journalism. And that was that. But the more I surf his site, the more I cruise the autoblogosphere for honest-to-God reportage, the more I wonder if Watergate ever happened. Time and time again, the press give even the most patently bone-headed not-to-say Lutzian industry players a free ride. Even on those rare occasions when a reporter asks a suit a hard question, the self-proclaimed journalist never drills down to the nitty gritty. I guess that's why we're here. To ask the question no one else is asking. And I think the industry knows it. That's why Tesla failed to honor its promise to TTAC and followed BMW, Subaru and other automakers in refusing us seat time in a press car. But–  and I'm guessing here– our editorial independence is also one of the reasons Toyota recently contacted TTAC and offered access to their press fleet. Does this signal some kind of sea change? Is the industry finally ready to face the music? I doubt it. But like Ford CEO Alan Mulally's promise to see the world through "clear glasses," it's a start. Kudos to Big Al. And props to Toyota. While we won't give either automaker special treatment, we recognize and respect their courage.

You can bet that more than a couple of Detroit execs are monitoring today’s Fed rate cut and U.S. stock market slide, wondering if this is it. Meanwhile, BusinessWeek’s Autobeat reports that Japanese automakers' stock prices are suffering alongside The Big 2.8's. Compared to year-ago prices, Mazda’s stock is down 45 percent, Toyota’s is off by 32 percent and Honda’s stock price has dipped 35 percent. This despite the fact that all the automakers expect to post record earnings in March. The underlying logic: when the U.S. economy sniffles, the rest of the world feels a head cold coming on. Long term, bigger picture, Autbeat says Japanese automakers “strong sales in emerging markets” should offset the coming U.S. slowdown, and their range of fuel-efficient offerings put them in a good position to profit from higher U.S. gas prices. Not to mention the fact that if a full-on recession throws one (or more) of The Big 2.8 into Chapter 11, the last men standing will get one Hell of a dead cat bounce.  

Pistonheads insist that Toyotas are a snooze to drive. Toyota agrees. Stockhouse reports that ToMoCo has developed a system that measures driver's eye apertures to see if they're awake and paying attention. The system's camera and image-processing system monitor the positions of the driver's upper and lower eyelids. OK, here's the tricky bit. Toyota says it's integrated the eye thingamabob with its Pre-Crash safety Nanny. Apparently, without the eye system, Pre-Crash lets you know a crash is ABOUT to happen. With Big Brother scanning your eyes, Pre-Crash lets you know an accident COULD happen. Anyway, it's just another damn thing electronic gizmo that can go wrong, that your dealer will have to replace rather than repair. Toyota says they will  offer the system on selected domestic (Japan) models "in the near future."

Audi has dominated the Le Mans series with the diesel-powered R10; Peugeot is also fielding a diesel race car. Now The Daily Yomiyuri reports that Toyota's considering jumping into the alternate powertrain fray with a hybrid-powered Le Mans car. Although Toyota last ran the Le Mans in 1999, they recently won the Tokachi 24-hour race last year in a Supra retrofitted with a hybrid drivetrain. The LeMans cars will have a "special capacitor" (no, they didn't use the word "flux") to "facilitate an extremely fast power supply and charging function." Apparently, ToMoCo sees a hybrid-powered endurance racer as a way to generate interest in the gas – electric powertrain in Europe, which already has plenty of cars equipped high mileage gas and diesel powerplants. Considering Toyota's "success" in F1, they better hope they don't need a checkered flag to make the point.

Hammering the IS-F through the sleepy desert two-lanes of Rosamond, California, I tried to remind myself: “I’m driving a Lexus.” But the 416-horsepower sedan leaves little time for inner monologues. Caned hard, the IS-F reels in straight-aways like King Triton's spey rod. Corners arrive before your consciousness can catch up. Quick! Turn in, dip the throttle, unwind the hefty steering and feel the skittering rear wheels rotate you through the apex. Then look down at the silver “L” pointing at your chest. Cognitive dissonance much?

As Motown's chief cheerleader, The Detroit News is all about the spin. But every now and then, the paper kicks it up a notch to kick Toyota in the teeth. Columnist Daniel Howes recounts ToMoCo's '07 "challenges." For those of you who aren't regular readers of the DTN or TTAC (or any other automotive publication), Toyota stands accused of hypocrisy for perpetuating their green rep whilst selling gas-guzzling trucks and SUVs and lobbying against an increase in federal fuel economy standards (unlike…?). "Yes, UAW President Ron Gettelfinger had it right up on Mackinac Island last May: Toyota is not a division of Greenpeace — and it never was." Howes then rounds on Toyota for its Consumer Reports downgrade and product recalls, and shares an unsubstantiated anecdote. "On a separate press event to unveil the car, two Camrys were knocked out with transmission problems. In contacting Japan, they were told Toyota engineers there knew of a problem with a coupler in the transmission but failed to notify their colleagues in the States." In sum, "One of the lessons of this year's auto show is that for the first time in what seems like forever, a fair amount of Detroit's metal is reaching (if not exceeding) parity with its chief rival Toyota. That means a whole new kind of competition is about to begin and Detroit is back in the game." Fair enough?

There's not much new in the [UK] Times analysis of Detroit's troubles, save the above paranoid, defeatist, defensive, sour grapes quote from GM Car Czar Maximum Bob Lutz. (We're no longer number the world's largest automaker? What a RELIEF!) Oh, that and the headline, an extremely non-Detroit News-like "US carmakers still on the wrong road." The gist of the matter: longtime auto industry observer Ray Hutton reckons The Big 2.8 got caught with their small car pants down. And he's not buying the idea that ANY of Motown's former maestros can pull themselves back from the brink– at least in the U.S. In fact, Ray reckons "Nobody expects a big turn-round in America, where the market for cars and light trucks is at best static, at about 16.5m a year, although some analysts predict a steep decline in 2008." And that's about it, except for the fact that Chrysler CEO Robert Nardelli is either developing a penchant for Zen koans or developing new ways to tell the press to f-off. "The advantage of being private is that we can be private."

When it comes to buying fish, stocks, bonds or cars, timing is everything. The factors determining a savvy buyer’s ideal window of opportunity are mercurial. And, like the mystery surrounding a good fishing hole, there are plenty of industry professionals whose livelihood depends on shrouding the “inside line” in secrecy. For example, you won't find prices for “leftover” ’07 Chevrolet Malibus on Edmunds or kbb. Of course, when it comes to car buying advice, The Truth About Cars is on YOUR side. We’re here to help.  

If you want to save money, it often pays to wait until a manufacturer introduces a new version of an existing model. Dealers hawk model year “close outs” on a regular basis. But the deals don’t get crack-a-lackin’ until the model undergoes a significant “refresh.” If the “old” model looks old or the “new” model is significantly better— like, say, the aforementioned Malibu— the discounts are intense.We've found new old ‘Bu's for $5k off list.

Normally, model “refreshes” are evolutionary, not revolutionary. And the price difference ‘twixt old and new is impressive, not astounding. But impressive ain’t bad. Let’s have a look…

The Nissan Murano has been a solid seller since its introduction in 2003 (with a 2004 model year designation.) This first major update has now shipped, as a 2009. As there was no 2008 model, disconcerted dealers now have 2009 AND 2007 Muranos on sitting on their lots side-by-side. 

What’s the diff?  The new model gets a more hideous nose and badly revised sheetmetal. Horsepower’s up 25, though mileage remains roughly the same. Nissan claims the new Murano has increased rigidity and decreased noise. In the main, that’s it.

There is a value to newness. It is nice being the first on your block with a car no one’s seen before, to feel special for a while, like you’re on the cutting edge. But there’s also value to be extracted from Nissan dealers with unlucky ‘07s who MUST lure customers away from the new and improved Murano. We're talking $1,500 from Nissan and the $2,500 between the dealer’s sticker and his or her invoice. Or more.

After six years, Volvo is also launching a heavily-revised V70 wagon. The new model takes their bread-and-butter load lugger up a whole platform, from P2 (shared with the S60) to P24 (shared with the S80). Bottom line: it’s a move up market, not up-size. In America, the engine gains a cylinder, the horsepower jumps from 168 to 235, (the 2007 turbo makes 218) and gas mileage drops by around five mpg. The new V-wagon extends a lineage of safety innovations and offers some unique new features, like a power tailgate.

Volvo's a done a good job reducing supplies of the outgoing model. But more than a few 2007s V70s lurk on the lots. In the notoriously cool buying climate of January and February, buyers could find discounts as deep as upstate New York snow. There’s around $2k between invoice and sticker, more with more depending on options and local incentives.  

In 2003, the Pontiac Vibe began rolling out of the NUMMI plant (a joint venture between General Motors and Toyota) and the Toyota Matrix emerged from Toyota's Cambridge, Ontario plant. Both vehicles are tall, harshly-styled Corollas– and I mean that in the nicest possible way. Both the Vibe and the Matrix are reliable, versatile, borderline fun vehicles. They just look… dated.

The models’ sheetmetal changes a bit, but the song remains the same; there’s no drastic increase in size. Horsepower is up, without a hit to gas mileage. For the base 1.8-liter engine, GM and Toyota lose the manual transmission option. Toyota and Pontiac are also offering a 2.4-liter powerplant putting out 158 hp. All wheel-drive is back as on option. If these things be important to you, stay home until March. 

Good news for the bargain shopper: the 2009 versions of Matrix-Vibe don’t look all that much better. Go poke around under the plastic pennants and you'll find aggressively-priced models aplenty. Dealers are watching flat spots grow on these all season radials, knowing the new 2009's are being assembled in California and Canada as I type. 

Here’s the caveat: resale. When a new model comes out, it dings the value of the previous model. In the grand scheme of things, over the long term, it’s not a huge hit. In the short term, it’s a big old whack. If you’re planning to sell your pre-model change car in two to three years, you will not get as much money as if you’d bought the “new” new car.

If you sell your pre-model change vehicle in five to seven years (or longer), factors like mileage and condition come to the fore. Of course, even then, timing is everything.

In the old fairy story, con men convince a naked sovereign that he’s wearing fine clothes. Applying that cautionary tale to General Motors is not as straightforward as it seems. Is GM CEO Rick Wagoner aware that the enormous automaker is tumbling towards bankruptcy? Or is he living in a dream world, demanding that his "kingdom" admire his invisible finery? Whether Wagoner’s deluded or deluding, his ”GM Statement on Turnaround Plan” indicates that GM is still buck naked.

"We're delivering on the turnaround plan we established in 2005, and have exceeded expectations on virtually all counts," Wagoner proclaimed.

Welcome to Wagoner’s world, where you can announce that you’ve exceeded your expectations without revealing them. In truth, Wagoner has never set hard targets for GM’s recovery. Not sales. Not market share. Not even a return to profitability. If GM doesn't say where they’re going, why should we believe they’re getting there?

Even a brief look at GM’s declining sales, lost market share and red ink-stained balance sheet reveals that Wagoner’s a legend in his own mind. GM’s decline is a trend that started before the unspecified 2005 “turnaround plan,” that’s continued unabated since its implementation. But never mind that, because “We've set a strong foundation that we can truly build on. We're encouraged by our progress in revitalizing our product portfolio, strengthening our brands, reducing structural cost and growing the business globally.”

Hang on; a few well-received products do not a turnaround make. For one thing, the Chevrolet Malibu, new Cadillac CTS and Lambda-based Crossovers may be media darlings, but none qualify as a runaway sales success. That's especially true as The General screwed-up the supply chain for all three cars, leaving dealers SOL. Lest we forget, GMNA is still juggling eight brands and 49 products (not including discontinued models still for sale or variants). Even if you spot GM five hit products, well, you do the math.

And while we’re at it, GM’s product portfolio is still truck-heavy in an increasingly truck-aversive domestic market. Using the EPA definition of a truck, 28 of those 49 products qualify. That’s 57 percent. Trumpeting the fact that [some of] the vehicles within GM’s product portfolio are “revitalized” is equivalent to boasting that you made a perfect three-point landing at the wrong airport. And that’s without questioning GM's trucks' diminishing profitability.

But we’re really off in “admire that naked man’s clothes” territory when considering Wagoner’s assertion that his administration has strengthened GM’s brands.

Chevrolet is gas-friendly to gas free (if you consider a diesel pick-up “gas free”), but it still sells everything from a rebadged Korean econobox to a $60k sports car without any unifying concept. Saturn asks potential buyers to “Rethink” without giving them anything coherent to think about. Cadillac, the supposed standard of the world, lacks a credible flagship– and looks set to fall further down market. What is a Saab? Does anyone care? Near-luxury Buick is near death (unless you’re in China). Buick's most aggressive competitor, GMC, is re-positioning itself as an upmarket Chevy. Which is what again?

Pontiac is in a Holden pattern, repositioning itself as an importer of rebadged Australian rear wheel-drive sedans. Meanwhile, it sells a farrago of rebadged Chevies (which is what again?), a couple of Toyota and Saturn homonyms and… the Grand Prix. Of all GM’s eight brands, weak-selling Hummer is the strongest; albeit one that’s a politically or gas conscious buyer's anti-matter.

If "strengthening brands" means eight automotive “companies” offering a range of mostly lackluster products that overlap each other in niche, price, engineering and style; products that don’t as a whole adhere to a clear branding strategy, mission accomplished. 

So all we’re left with is “reducing structural cost.” As GM’s NA market share is shrinking, and cost-cutting is GM’s Beancounter in Chief’s forte, you’d expect progress on that front. But it should be remembered that all this cost reduction adds to GM’s mountain of debt. The bill for all those employee buyouts and plant closures will eventually come due, and GM’s forthcoming $29.9b VEBA contribution ain’t chicken feed neither.

As for “growing the business globally,” GM North America was, is and will be a financial sinkhole. It will continue to swallow-up all the profits GM can generate abroad– until GM’s Board of Bystanders will be forced to cut North America loose (i.e. declare Chapter 11) to save its European operations.

If you’re happy to admire the Emperor’s new clothes, the “GM Statement on Turnaround Plan” will inspire reverence. But let me draw your attention to one small statement therein. Wagoner promises to “build GM's advanced propulsion leadership position.” For Wagoner to even IMPLY that GM is the leader in advanced propulsion, or SUGGEST that they’re going to build that leadership from scratch, moves beyond hubris into an entirely new realm of fantasy. News flash: the Emperor is naked.

[Read the “GM Statement on Turnaround Plan” here.]