If you want proof that brand perception is based on a single focused concept, consider the fact that Honda makes America's most fuel efficient fleet of vehicles, without a single V8 amongst them. Meanwhile Toyota builds the gas-friendly (in the sense of using a lot) Toyota Sequoia, Land Cruiser and Tundra and Lexus LS460– and gets all the green credit for the Prius. At Honda's Detroit Auto Show expense account ho'-down, the "other" Japanese automaker seemed to demonstrate a growing realization that they need a foot in each camp: mean and green. First, they re-introduced the California-bound hydrogen-powered FCX Clarity, and kicked the lightweight "sports hybrid concept" CRZ with "clean performance" and plenty o' gas-electric torque into the spotlight. And then Honda unveiled the new eight-passenger 2009 Pilot Prototype, complete with a beefy "ACE" crash management structure. The Prototype features the kind of ugly, prison wall front end styling that makes fuel economy-minded aerodynamicists unemployable. Although Honda equipped the beast with 6-4-3 cylinder deactivation, the fact that they're selling its "real offroad and towing" capability tells you something. Could we live to see a Honda V8 in an Acura RL or Honda Pilot? Stranger things have happened. 

[Reported by Sajeev Mehta] 

At BMW's Detroit Auto Show PR bragfest and new vehicle unveiling, the truth was spinning as fast as the propeller that inspired the corporate roundel. In spite of their perpetual payments for EPA fines, BMW wants you to know all the good things they're doing for the environment. Did you know they've led the way in CO2 reduction in the U.S.? At least that's what all their signs said (just in case you missed them actually saying it). But let's face it– if BMW hadn't had such high emissions to start with, they couldn't have dropped them that much. The German automaker also didn't bother to address what impact the quart of oil their V-10 engines consume between oil changes has on the environment. But they did say their first hybrid, due in 2009, will use 20 percent less fuel than "other cars." Somehow I don't think Toyota or Honda will be losing any sleep over any of this.

[Reported by Sajeev Mehta] 

While we await various concept and slatedforproductionmobiles at the 2008 Detroit Auto Show, Toyota has taken another giant leap away from "now you see it, now do you recognize it?" auto show hype. Ahead of tomorrow's official debut of the new Venza crossover, Kentucky's Herald-Leader reports that workers at ToMoCo's Georgetown factory have amassed experience screwing the beastie together. In fact, the Camry factory's been involved in the machine's genesis right from the git-go. "Since April 2006, two dozen workers at Toyota's sprawling Georgetown manufacturing plant have spent their days walled off from their colleagues. In key-carded rooms, they ran computer simulations, phoned Toyota's top designers and coordinated a project that will soon touch thousands of their brethren. They have built the Venza." This kind of pre-prod prep is nothing new. But the paper describes the computer-assisted anal retentive lengths (ew) to which ToMoCo will go to get a vehicle right before it hits the streets. "Haddix and his team members used computer software to track how each of the more than 2,000 parts would be shaped and installed. When the group simulated installation of a part under the hood, they found that the tool couldn't quite fit and struck the vehicle. The hood angle had to be raised. Another part's installation would have scratched the instrument panel." Who ARE these guys?  

Once again, GM Car Czar Maximum Bob Lutz is shooting his mouth off, aspiring to TTAC's non-existent Stop Making Sense lifetime achievement award. Let's face it: it's one thing to say you don't give a shit about Toyota snatching your employer's "world's largest automaker crown" and then rescind the remark (as GM CEO Rick Wagoner did during a Russian plant unveiling in '07). It's another to say the same thing again. But those are the [non-fighting] words coming out of Maximum Bob's mouth in an interview set to be published tomorrow by the German auto industry newspaper Automobilwoche (via Reuters). "Good product quality, the company's image and the profit for shareholders are more important goals than the top position in volume." In that order, presumably. BTW. WTH does that quote actually mean? 

If there's anyone left who still thinks hybrid cars are just a fad, you need to rethink: the Prius was one of America's best-selling vehicles in 2007. That's vehicles, not just hybrids. Toyota sold 181,221 of the gas-electric hatchbacks. That's more than the entire Acura or Mercury lineups, and the model was nipping on all of Buick's heels. The Prius also outsold the Chevrolet Tahoe, the Toyota Tacoma, the Honda Odyssey, every Jeep, every Chrysler, every Dodge (except Ram) and every Ford but the F-series. No wonder Maximum Bob is trying to jump onto the hybrid bandwagon so fast, after pooh-poohing hybrids for so long. Only problem is that train left the station a long time ago, GM and Co. will have to run mighty fast to catch it.

As you'd expect, Texas is America's largest market for full-sized pickup trucks. While pickup truck sales fell 14 percent nationally over the past four years, Bloomberg reports that they rose 5.2 percent in the Lone Star State. GM, Ford and Dodge aren't exactly celebrating, though. In 2007, Toyota's piece of that pie grew 79 percent, while the so-called domestics' slice dropped by five percent. Even worse, Dallas Ford dealer Sam Pack says a lot of those Tundra sales are conquest sales, "coming from traditionally Ford, Chevrolet and Dodge" buyers. While the raw numbers still favor The Big 2.8, Tundra's share of the Texas market rose from 4.7 to 8.4 percent last year. To git 'er done, Toyota put $6.4k worth of incentives on the hood, putting the Texas-built Tundra in the middle of the pack (Ford $6.6k, Chrysler $6.47k and GM $6k). As the pickup truck market shrinks even more in 2008, you can bet Toyota will continue its slow but steady incursion into the domestics' last redoubt. And watch those profit margins shrink.

Japanese motor vehicle sales fell 7.6 percent in 2007; Toyota was down 6.2 percent. Still, Bloomberg reports that the Toyota Corolla managed to retain its five-year standing as Japan's best-selling passenger car (excluding minicars). Corolla sales increased by 2.7 percent last year, almost 150K units found new homes. The Toyota Schvitz… er… Vitz (a.k.a. Yaris) was Japan's second-best-selling car, clocking over 121k sales (up 3.2 percent). Toyota better be careful, though– Honda's having a Fit to unseat them. The redesigned Fit went on sale in October and became Japan's best-seller in December (again, excluding minicars). The fit outran the Corolla by a margin of almost two to one. That's a 144.1 percent increase over December 2006. The Fit's annual sales rose by 14.5 percent, scooping third in overall sales. If you don't exclude minicars, Suzuki reigned supreme in 2007. The brand sold over 225k Wagon R kei cars. Now if they'd just pop a Hayabusa engine into a few of them and send them our way…

Ironically enough, Jung observed "there is no scientific test that would prove the discrepancy between perception and reality." Scanning the results of Consumer Reports (CR) automotive brand perception survey, Toyota execs must be muttering "thank God for that," while GM shouts "See? Told ya!" The CR survey evaluates how American consumers perceive car companies in seven key areas: safety, quality, value, performance, environmental friendliness, design and innovation. Toyota ranked first in overall brand perception, racking-up a score of 189. Honda snagged second place, scoring 146. Ford was the highest ranked American brand, placing third with 112 points. While Chevrolet and GMC made the "best" list, Buick was amongst Audi (!) and Acura at the bottom of the league table. Here are the winning brands in the seven categories (listed in order of importance according to respondents):

Safety – Volvo
Quality – Toyota
Value – Honda
Performance – BMW
Green – Toyota
Design/Style – Mercedes
Technology Innovation – Toyota

(For an explanation of CR's methodology, see the bottom of the linked page below.)

Despite the potential (if not actual) cratering of the U.S. new car market, Toyota reckons it will rack-up seven percent more sales abroad in '08 than '07. CNNMoney reports that Toyota '07 sales rose six percent to 9.37m vehicles. Sniffing big business in the expanding Russian and Chinese markets, Toyota reiterated its previous forecast for a big boost in total global sales in 2008, heading for 9.85m new car sales. Although Toyota's doemstic (i.e. Japanese) sales fell four percent in '07, down to 2.228m vehicles, their soothsayers say the market has stabilized, and will remain flat for '08. Whether all this will be enough to (once again?) wrest the "world's largest automaker" crown from GM remains to be seen; GM is also doing land office business in China, South America and Russia. But if we're talking profitability, well, Detroiters may not want to go there… 

Any guy who's gone swimming in cold water can tell you shrinkage is not a good thing. Yet even as Ford comes to grips with losing second place to Toyota, The Blue Oval Boyz say the automaker could shrink even more before they return to profitability (and start to pay off the principal on those gi-normous loans). At a "roundtable dinner" last night with the Detroit Free Press' Tom Walsh, FoMOCo CEO Big Al Mulally said his employer's market share could continue to drop as they seek to stabilize output to match demand (translation: cut production, close down plants, eliminate jobs). Mark "What Me Worry?" Fields thinks Lincoln can help pull the company out of its doldrums, citing a 15 percent increase in sales last year. Apparently, that's "the largest gain of any luxury brand in the U.S. market." Chief marketing director Jim Farley added Lincoln has a good future with younger buyers and ever-oh-so-PC "diversity customers." But what about poor, pitiful Mercury? Will it suffer the fate TTAC's Steven Lang predicted yesterday? Mulally tap-danced around that one. "We're committed to Mercury" but "we're continuing to review our portfolio. That's an ongoing assessment we continue to have, and should have." And if it does survive? Fields says it'll be the "smaller volume brand" in the Lincoln-Mercury portfolio. So as Ford shrinks, Mercury will shrink even more. And when something shrinks too much it just fades away…..

Heads-up Autoblog! Buried in a boring-looking post on Toyota's Open Road blog: news that the Japanese manufacturer will follow Nissan's lead and add a real-time fuel economy gauge to all its Toyota, Scion and Lexus vehicles. The yet-to-be-finalized gizmo will debut in the next-generation 4-Runner, launched in August ‘09. ToMoCo's Corporate Comms Director Jon F. Thompson writes that the Eco Driving Indicator will include an "Eco Zone Display" that will tell the driver that they are saving money and the planet, and reducing our need for oil-related foreign military entanglements [paraphrasing]. Autobox-equipped vehicles get an "Eco Lamp" that illuminates once the driver enters the “Eco Zone” (da da da da da, da da da da). Drivers of manual transmission-equipped vehicles (do they still make those?) light the lamp by hitting the most fuel efficient shift point. The system will, of course, include an Average Fuel Consumption Meter to help aspiring hypermilers frustrate dangerous drivers yakking on the cell in their [non-Toyota] gas hogs. I mean, optimize their fuel economy. Oh, and Thompson says social engineering rocks! "We’ve learned that as we work to make our vehicles more efficient, we also can work to make our drivers more efficient."

The U.S. isn't the only market where car sales have stumbled, tripped and hit their head on the coffee table. Japan Times reports that new vehicle sales in The Land of the Rising Sun sank to a 35-year low in 2007. The Japan Auto Dealer's Association recorded slightly fewer than 3.5m new vehicle sales.  Automobiles with engines larger than 660cc were down 7.6 percent from 2006, while sales of minicars (engines smaller than 660cc) fell 5.1 percent. Toyota took a huge hit on their home turf, dropping 6.2 percent for the year. Honda, Nissan and Mazda managed to lose less. Analysts blame rising fuel prices, a shrinking population and a decline in wages. Just like GM and Ford (and to a lesser extent, Chrysler), foreign sales are buoying the car companies' bottom lines. Even they're doing relatively well, the current U.S. sales slowdown will take their toll on the Japanese corporate motherships. 

Santa left a lump of coal in the automakers' stockings this year. Even the usual Christmas sales failed to put presents under the tree. As the year drew to a close, new car and truck sales were down across the board, with carmakers jostling for the honor of doing less badly than the other guy. New Year's was a decidedly dour affair, with manufacturers clocking the housing downturn and the mortgage crisis and predicting either flat or "slightly lowered" sales in the year ahead. Translation: batten down the hatches; it's about to get rough. Ain't that the truth.

Compared to December '06, light vehicles sales sank 2.9 percent for the month, 2.5 percent for the year. The light truck market went dim, with sales four percent below last December's total. Annual truck sales dropped by 1.9 percent. Total car sales fell 1.7 percent compared for December of last year, ending the year three percent below 2006. Here's how the models we've been tracking fared at the end of the year.

Passenger Cars

Chevy's Impala plummeted 32 percent compared to last December. Robust spring sales forestalled total disaster; sales were up 7.3 percent for the year. The Chrysler 300 ended the month 38.8 percent below '06; total sales were down 16 percent from last year. Ford's Fusion was a life preserver; sales were up seven percent in December, 4.9 percent for year. Toyota's Camry showed an uncharacteristic 1.8 percent December drop, but finished the year 5.5 percent ahead of 2006. While Camry hybrid sales nose-dived 73.2 percent in December, the Prius was up 53 percent for the same period.

Pickup Trucks

After falling for four months, Silverado's sales clocked a 2.2 percent increase in December. GM's former Next Big Thing was down 2.8 percent for year. Dodge Ram sales also picked up– and finished December down 2.3 percent,  1.6 percent below 2006's totals. Ford's F-Series managed to retain it's title as "best selling truck," but only barely.  With sales down 22 percent in December, 13.2 percent for year, FoMoCo'd better hope they can hang on until the redesigned model is ready in 2009. Toyota's Tundra didn't make their goal of 200k sales in '07, but the redesigned model easily eclipsed its predecessor. Sales were up 54.1 percent in December, 57.9 percent for the year.

Truck-Based SUVs

The sun continues to set on traditional body-on-frame SUV. The Chevrolet Tahoe dropped 25.6 percent from last December, ending the year down 9.4 percent. Dodge's Durango sank a staggering 42.6 percent below last last December, some 35.6 percent off the previous year's pace. The Ford Explorer is still lost. December sales were down 18.7 percent, annual sales sank 23.1 percent. Toyota's 4Runner also lacked love, losing 16.6 percent from last December, dropping 14.9 percent overall from the previous year.

CUVs

CUVs may be the hot ticket, but older models are suffering. Ye Olde Chevrolet Equinox lost 16.1 percent of its sales from last December, finishing the year down 21.4 percent.  The soon-to-be-a-has-been Chrysler Pacifica fell an unbelievable 62.1 percent for the month, ending-up 31.1 percent below last year overall. The Ford Escape stumbled a bit, losing 8.9 percent from last December. But it finished the year with a 5.2 percent increase over 2006. Toyota's RAV-4 remains healthy, finishing the year up 0.2 percent for month and a whopping 13.6 percent for year.

New for 2007

Say what you will about cannibalization, GMC sold 7,393 Acadia mega-CUVs in December; an increase of 998 units over November. In total, GMC sold almost 73k Acadias in 2007. Ford's Edge did even better, finishing December with 13,722 sales, adding 1128 sales to November's total. Ford sold over 130k units in 2007. Jeep picked up an additional 612 Compass sales over November, putting 3,295 on the soft road in December; they sold just under 40k of the semi-Jeeps in 2007.

Total Sales

Scrooge reigned supreme in December with one minor exception. GM finished December down 4.4 percent from last December and down six percent year to date. Ford was in even worse shape, dropping nine percent for December and 11.8 percent below last year's total. Chrysler was the only automaker showing an increase over December '06: one half of one percent. For the year, Chrysler was down 3.1 percent. Toyota didn't fare as well, dropping 1.7 percent over last December, but finishing the year 3.1 percent ahead of last year.

Looking ahead

Let's just say it ain't gonna be pretty, and I'll be here to help keep your finger on the pulse.

[I'm making a few changes to illuminate overall trends. First, I'm dropping 2005's numbers to keep the charts to the current calendar year plus two. I'm adding Honda's numbers in the categories where they're a player. I'm replacing a few extinct models (e.g. Pacifica) and those that don't accurately represent that manufacturer's best efforts in their category (e.g. replacing Equinox with Acadia). I'm also thinking about adding a chart for the best-selling hybrid from each manufacturer (GM doesn't break out hybrids in their sales numbers, so they won't be included). If you have any other suggestions, let me know in a comment below.]

While Toyota Motors North America (TMNA) finished 2007 in overall better shape than its domestic competition, they failed to meet their goal of selling 200k of their new, full-sized, Texas-built Tundra pickups. Hope leaf springs eternal. Even as the market for large pickups follows the U.S. housing market into the crapper and fuel economy standards get tighter, ToMoCo's sticking with their goal of 300k annual sales by 2010. Toyota Division GM Bob Carter told Automotive News [sub], Downturn? What downturn? [paraphrasing] In fact, Carter predicts Tundra sales will hit the low 200ks in 2008. "There is no cause for alarm. We are on plan." When asked how long it'll take for Tundra to top the 300k mark, he clammed up. However he did mention they "have 44 Tundra models now, and in the future, that segment requires even a broader lineup than we have today." So let's see… they have a model that is selling below expectations in a market segment that is shrinking so their solution is to increase the complexity of the model line-up to generate sales. The Big 2.8 have been hiring TMNA executives right and left. With marketing logic like that, you have to wonder if Toyota's been reciprocating.

GM's main man told Bloomberg that he expects 75 percent of The General's car and truck sales to come from outside the U.S. within a decade. Meanwhile, while GM's setting sales records in developing markets overseas, they're losing money at home. Lots of money. To his credit, Rabid Rick did touch on that small issue with Bloomberg. GM's CEO claimed his "plan" to end those losses is about "50 to 60 percent complete." WHAT PLAN? Has anyone seen this plan or is he, like Indiana Jones, making it up as he goes along? Which ever it is, Wagoner [finally] admits things aren't quite going as expected. "Maybe the actions are a little farther along, but the results I don't think are that far along." With Wagoner conceding defeat in North America, the results probably won't get much farther along, either. What's that sound? Why, it's Toyota, Honda and Nissan letting out a war whoop as they thunder down their American happy hunting ground.