China’s passenger-vehicle sales skyrocketed a frightening 48 percent in June, the most stratospheric ascent since February 2006. According to Bloomberg, this “helped the nation extend its lead over the U.S. as the world’s largest auto market this year.” The car-nage in Bloomberg’s own words:
In the first half, China’s vehicle sales surpassed the tally in the U.S. by about 27 percent as the government cut retail taxes and handed out subsidies in rural areas to revive consumption and economic growth. U.S. auto sales have plunged on the recession and job concerns, threatening to end the country’s at least 63-year reign as the world’s largest auto market.
China’s first-half vehicle sales rose 18 percent to 6.1 million. Sales of passenger vehicle climbed 26 percent to 4.53 million, while commercial-vehicle sales fell 0.5 percent to 1.57 million, the association said. U.S. vehicle sales dropped 35 percent to 4.8 million.
Note: China doesn’t have a “light vehicle” count. Minibuses and pick-ups count as “commercial vehicles.”
The 48 percent jump was caused by Chinese registering 872,900 cars, sport-utility vehicles and other passenger vehicles in June, data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) show. Overall vehicle sales, which include buses and trucks, rose 36 percent to 1.14 million in June. Never in recorded history had China bought as many cars.
According to Reuters, CAAM “said total vehicle sales for 2009 would exceed 11 million units, compared with a forecast of 10.2 million units made earlier this year.”
With China already way ahead of the USA, with Chinese registrations rising at Baruthian speeds, while US sales are in the terminal phase of their trajectory, only divine intervention could help the USA retain its 63 year old title as Emperor of Cartago when 2009 closes. The gods haven’t been smiling on stateside sales. China on the other hand has just started.
According to Credit Suisse research, car ownership in China is just 2.9 percent of the population—one of the lowest rates in the world. They expect ownership to surge fivefold in the next decade to reach 148 cars per 1,000 residents by 2020. That would be 222m cars, and still far away from the 800 cars per thousand in the USA.
Oh yes please humiliate me, Asian Goddess…
Sorry what the heck was that story about….
This should not be a shock to anybody in our Best & Brightest. I’m surprised that it took a country of a billion plus with a steadily rising standard of living this long to pass us.
Why do I keep thinking that there is going to be a problem with oil supply to fuel China’s dreams of American-like auto penetration?
Or let me be more specific/prophetic: ain’t gonna happen, at least not without cooking the planet. Unless, of course, there are some major technological breakthroughs.
One more thing: “China humiliates the USA”? More like following the lemmings over the brink.
Paul: Nobody in China has wet dreams of americanesque car -ahem- penetration rates. USA’s 800 per thousand are obscene. If I recall right 148 per thousand for 2020 would be less than Russia has today.
It is interesting to note that whenever countries like China or India move to get at least some of their people on wheels, we worry about oil supply. If our car sales slow, we worry about the economy.
China’s population is over 4 times greater than the US’s. Nothing to see here, except for that very lovely lady.
It’s like when people say “OHMIGOD CHINA HAS A BIGGER ECONOMY THAN GERMANY AND JAPAN!!!!111ONEONE”
Well, you know, since Germany has 80 million people and Japan has 120 million, I’d hope to God that China, with its 1.3 billion, has a bigger economy. That’s just how it works.
how bout that picture, pretty salty
Commanderfish: Population has not a lot to do with economic might. Otherwise, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh or Nigeria would have great economies.
By all accounts, China is the world’s third largest economy, after the USA and Japan, before Germany. It is quite significant that the third largest economy has the highest car sales, while the sales in the largest and second largest economies contract at alarming rates.
damn that’s a bit all right
i say bertel is given the job of picking all the accompanying pictures for all articles
i get the feeling the average chinese car sold would be a bit of a joke compared to the avg. western car?
how much does an average car cost over there ?
Other than to annoy Americans, I don’t see the point of the title of this entry. What is humiliating about Chinese car sales?
Does that mean that the US humiliates Germany and Japan every year, then?
i get the feeling the average chinese car sold would be a bit of a joke compared to the avg. western car?
If you would come to China, you would feel quite at home here (except for the lack of clunkers.)
List of China’s best selling cars as of 5/09 here. For all of 2008, stats here. Most of the names will be quite familiar. The volume models would be very much at home in the western world. Actually, most are.
The question is how mnay cars do they have and by when will they have more cars than the US or other countries? Our sales must be lower, since everyone already has a car and we only replace aging cars. They start having cars after having nothing but bicycles and mopeds.
Yes they are lemmings, just with even less thought of the environment or other consequences.
We all are doomed when oil runs even lower, and it will. survival of the fittest with a better transportation system.
Who ever picked that photo, +10 cocktails of your choice. Nicely done.
There was a story? Oh, who cares? The bigger story is not that China consumers are buying a boatload of cars, but (1) why China consumers are buying a boatload of cars and (2) why American consumers no longer buy a boatload of cars.
China sits on a mound of American dollars (okay American government debt but you get the idea). To maintain that dollar peg, China has to print more currency, which has to go some where. Usually, the Chinese like the Japanese stick excess household money in their mattress or bank or where ever (i.e., save it). Instead, the Chinese government recognizing that the export model could benefit from some tweaks decided to spur domestic purchase. Thus, Chinese consumers buy a boatload of cars.
As to the Americans, we have a different problem, which is household debt. Only Wall Street finance firms and Main Street banks have a credit problem. The Obama administration looked at the two problems and decided to help out their Wall Street finance and Main Street bank friends.
The American consumer lacks the financial where with all to buy, cars or anything for that matter. We can pass all the tax breaks and give aways (cash for bailing wire, anyone?), but the American consumer cannot go deeper into debt. Further, American wages, at best, have stagnated. Thus, car sales in America have driven over the cliff.
Remember, in the US we do not have a credit problem. We have a debt problem.
It is quite significant that the third largest economy has the highest car sales, while the sales in the largest and second largest economies contract at alarming rates
This is the whole point of the article.
But at some point, the chinese had to surpass american market as the biggest.
Developed economies shouldn’t be suffering market saturation?
I’m curious — how many people here have more vehicles than members of family?
I have 3 vehicles and my family is 2 members….
800 cars per 1000 residents is just insane. I have 2 cars & 1 bike (probably by end-of-year it will be 2 bikes).
I wonder if that number would go up to 825 or so if you included all motor vehicles…..
Are there 25 bikes/scooters per 1000 residents? 10?
Edit: in 2005 there were 6.2M registered motorcycles
http://www.bts.gov/publications/state_transportation_statistics/state_transportation_statistics_2006/html/fast_facts.html
If my math is correct that is 20.6 per 1000 residents.
“As to the Americans, we have a different problem, which is household debt.”
Huge family, too many kids, too large a house. Also… does it just seem like … fewer and fewer Americans are car enthusiasts? Drive that automatic transmission clunker land barge with “the fam” or whatever…
I’m 28, single with no kids. And you know what? I’m lovin’ it. Soon as I get money I’m either going to tune my car or get another. That or just pay off my debt altogether and be almost totally free in terms of my personal finance.
By 2020 the Chinese will still not have as many cars per capita as Russia. How humiliating for the US.
Large population doesn’t guarantee high GDP, but it unquestionably helps. Cheap labor with no labor rights is always in demand (even though companies are already moving on from China to other countries for cheaper labor). India has a pesky democratic government getting in the way of enslaving its peasants. The long term legacy of China’s de facto enslavement and environmental policies will make what the US has had to deal with look like nothing.
Nonetheless, India’s GDP is larger than that of shamed countries like Australia, South Korea, Switzerland, Sweden, Saudi Arabia, Norway and Austria. Interesting how population can do that.
In the less convenient GDP per capita ranking mainland China is at 104, behind a large list of third world countries.
Those who escaped the infallible Chinese government for Taiwan are ranked at 42 in GDP per capita, with a GDP per capita more than five times larger than that on the mainland.
So really the mainland Chinese should be humiliated, they have been left in the dust by those who left for Taiwan.
When China has a real middle class, not a small professional class but a majority of its people with middle incomes, and a democratically elected president or prime minister – one from a controversial ethnic minority like the US has, maybe someone from Tibet – then that will be worth a post.
It’s not offensive that the Chinese market sold more cars than the US market; it’s offensive that someone thinks we care.
What is humiliating for people in the US is that the French and Canadians have more cars per capita than them.
http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgallery/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12714391&fsrc
BFD!! (and I don’t mean Baltimore Fire Department.) Bertel, I think you are dilusional if you think that the U.S. takes this as an affront or some sort of humiliation. I don’t get your point on this topic. Ever.
I think it’s great news actually and a relief. We’re drowning in cars in the U.S. and dealing with tremendous mayhem as a result of the crashes and the pollution that are produced; all because of our undying obsession with all things automobilia. I am thrilled that the Chinese can now share the pain and give us some relief. Can’t wait to see where they end up in 20 or 25 years.
the fact that u.s. consumption is down, though much bemoaned in the press, is actually a sign that the american public has come to it’s senses. we’ve built a global economy based on bubble economics: someone has to buy this cr*p! i guess now it’s the chinese turn. the frightening thing is that on bertel’s link to the top 10 sellers, we see the koreans, the japanese and even the germans represented but where are the americans? oh, there’s the focus down at #10. do we seriously think that we can save the american auto industry without doing well in china?
What is humiliating for people in the US is that the French and Canadians have more cars per capita than them. Lies, damn lies, and statistics. The Economist falls prey to the fact that there are more than 100m “trucks” (i.e. pick-ups, SUVs etc.) on Americas streets, which they forgot to count. Counting “trucks,” (as we should and always do when we talk about sales etc.) the USA is at the top of the charts with approx 800 per 1000.
You should have read the comments. The usually reliable Economist got murdered for that chart. One example:
“The data is highly suspect, too bad it gets circulated all over the universe of the internet for all eternity. Unfortunately there are no editorship of The Economist’s information display and information sources. World Bank figures (survey) for passenger car (2004) are UK having 517 vehicles /’000 persons and the US at 874 vehicles /’000 persons (figures for France, Germany and Australia are 596, 585, and 675, per ‘000 persons respectively.”
Bertel Schmitt:
Sneaky Brits, they sure do hold a grudge about our humiliation of them. Honestly I wish the French and Canadians really had more cars light vehicles, it would help undermine the smugness.
But, speaking of statistics, your statistics list the top 10 sedans sold in China, which is very misleading given what the Chinese count as passenger vehicles, and likely does not represent the top 10 vehicles being sold.
postjosh:
GM’s joint ventures are significant in China, GM, depending on counting, may have more sales than any other company. The list you saw only lists sedans, a GM joint venture small minivan is very popular in China. Every foreign position in China is a 50/50 joint venture with a Chinese firm, and almost every foreign employee in China, including top management, has to have a Chinese shadow employee learning how to do the job; the foreign positions could all end up worthless.
“Population has not a lot to do with economic might.”
It does, however, have a lot to do with latent consumer demand for goods.
What’s the scrappage rate like in China? We keep reading about how lousy their cars are, and how its more difficult to wad up the tray from a Swanson’s TV dinner than it is a Brilliant sedan. What about theft rates and stripping?
Anyone got any numbers for that?
And then there’s one other thing…since the Chinese government owns chunks of each car company … and since none of us trust the PRC government more than the US government, uh, what makes anyone believe the Chinese governments pronouncements of production levels? It’s not exactly as if they have a great track record of, uh, truthiness.
The long term legacy of China’s de facto enslavement and environmental policies will make what the US has had to deal with look like nothing.
No doubt about that. The environemntal conditions in China make the worst environmental destruction ever seen in the US or Europe look like a garden of Eden in comparison (and the same goes for Russia by the way). It seems the friend of the worker is no friend of the environment that the worker lives in. At some point the government will have to deal with the destruction they have wrought. The problem is that they may deal with it by taking somebody else’s land.
Another overlooked factor is how many of these cars will be KEPT. If they were only purchased after the government handed out subsidies in rural areas, how many of these purchasers are going to be able keep making payments and or keep paying for fuel and maintenance after the subsides are discontinued? Even if they are outright purchases and the Chinese are not strapped with car payments like Americans, cars are very expensive to keep on the road, as we all know.
no_slushbox: Here is all the Chinese sales data you can eat. Regarding the shadow employee (they call it “twin” at the company I worked for,) that’s more and more a thing of the past. The Western pair of the twins have started migrating home a few years ago, and the numbers of lao wei at the JV are dropping down drastically.
Rod Panhard: The numbers are government registration numbers. There is no incentive to fudge (taxes, taxes…) I have friends inside a large Chinese car company, and they confirm that the officially reported number matches their internal number (actually, the official number is less, because they count internally what they drop on the dealer’s lot.)
All: Be careful with the “slave labor” myth. You’d be in for a rude awakening after you set up shop and start hiring. There is no such thing as slave labor. Workers are getting paid. A fraction of a UAW worker, but they do get paid. They are lining up for the jobs. But they want money. They have contracts and benefits. Now there is discussion whether a woman should get a few days off each month during her period …. On hearing it, I announced that I will only hire post menopausal women at the office if this becomes law ….
“In the first half, China’s vehicle sales surpassed the tally in the U.S. by about 27 percent”
Wow, who saw that coming! I know all about China from Pearl Buck’s “The Good Earth.” Everybody goes places by foot or water buffalo. Next thing you know, Canadians will quit using dog sleds and the Australians will stop riding kangaroos and buy motorcycles.
“the US at 874 vehicles /’000 persons” That’s not “obscene,” it’s like the old joke that asks “What do you call a hundred lawyers at the bottom of the ocean?”, to which the answer is “A good start.”
Maybe if we had the tart in the picture flogging sales (couldn’t resist) in North America we wouldn’t be in such a big sales slump.
Obviously the guy in charge of this site has rice fever. I can recognize the symptoms. As someone a little bit familiar with China and Chinese (via marriage) I can tell you that China is a cross between the U.S. and Mars. Very familiar in certain ways, but very strange, too. In spite of enormous problems that dwarf anything the US faces, China will likely continue to grow, whereas the U.S. seems to be in terminal decline. Cars are what Chinese want, and there are an awful lot of the latter, but few of the former. Expect to see sales skyrocket, over the short and long term. Probably a good time to be a car dealer, in China.
That girl in the photo is stupid-hot.
Anyways, why would we be surprised the Chinese are buying more cars than folks in the ‘States? We sent all our money by the pallet-load for years and years. They’ve got to spend it on something.
It seems like a natural economic evolution. We kept sending all our cash over there, and they invested it all in capital assets to make things for more of our money. Now that we’re out of money, they can use those capital assets more and more for their own consumption.
no_slushbox :
GM’s joint ventures are significant in China, GM, depending on counting, may have more sales than any other company. The list you saw only lists sedans, a GM joint venture small minivan is very popular in China.
i stand corrected. apparently, a buick excelle is a rebadged daewoo lancetti (suzuki forenza to us ‘mericans). well, i’ve seen the lancetti and it ain’t no golf (or elantra for that matter). i hope we have something better in development.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Daewoo_Lacetti_front_20080709.jpg
another chart showed shanghai gm in 3rd place overall behind vw and vw? i don’t see any ford or chrysler joint ventures listed. you’d think that a ford escape or a jeep would have some appeal with the rough condition of the rural roads in china. me suspects it’s the gas mileage issue…
Those who escaped the infallible Chinese government for Taiwan are ranked at 42 in GDP per capita, with a GDP per capita more than five times larger than that on the mainland.
So really the mainland Chinese should be humiliated, they have been left in the dust by those who left for Taiwan.
When China has a real middle class, not a small professional class but a majority of its people with middle incomes, and a democratically elected president or prime minister – one from a controversial ethnic minority like the US has, maybe someone from Tibet – then that will be worth a post.
You should also note that when the KMT gov left the mainland, they essentially stole all semblance of wealth and destroyed the economy, after generally screwing the peasants for decades.
This combined with the subsequent arguably even more idiotic close-minded politics of the Communists pretty much stalled development at a subsistence level for 30+ years, and a lot happened in the world during that time.
Since opening up to rest of the world, the country’s been on a tear economically. These numbers you’re seeing are on a consistent trajectory.
They certainly have serious problems, as developing nations generally do, but they also have widespread education, a serious government with an interest for self-preservation through economic development, and a generally diligent and motivated enough culture.
You’ve mentioned the french being smug. Well, it’s time for a critical self-evaluation.
agenthex :
You should also note that when the KMT gov left the mainland, they essentially stole all semblance of wealth and destroyed the economy, after generally screwing the peasants for decades.
sorry this has gotten political but i’ve got to agree with agenthex on this one. i have taiwanese friends but that doesn’t stop me from recognizing that the kmt deserved to be chased off the mainland. many on this site engage in china bashing but the fact is, mainlanders are very loyal to their government because they believe it saved them from the kmt and the japanese. i’ve heard this from chinese who hate communism and emigrated to the u.s. to start businesses.
mainlanders are very loyal to their government because they believe it saved them from the kmt and the japanese.
Unfortunately that government still screwed them until basically the 80’s, and to an extent is still screwing them now.
The country’s far and away largest fundamental problem is one of greed and corruption of those in power. Ironically, the great benefit of “democracy” is more about accountability rather than the often touted freedom.
@agenthex
You should also note that when the KMT gov left the mainland, they essentially stole all semblance of wealth and destroyed the economy, after generally screwing the peasants for decades.
I would bet – that especially for the coasts and floodplains where all China’s economy basically is – the Japanese did more to steal and obliterate the Chinese economy during WWII than anything or anybody else. War didn’t stop in China from basically 1934-ish all the way to 1949. Right after that, it was time for Great Leap into the Stone Age. Chinese had it rough for a long time.
KMT ripped silly old FDR off (queue T.V. Soong taking $500 million check for starters) pretty good though, but not China itself too much just because he didn’t control the most lucrative parts of China to steal from. Chiang kept the money and guns coming from Uncle Sugar Tits ’till he shoved off in ’75. After his evacuation to Formosa in ’49 the USA had hung him out to dry basically. It was only China’s intervention in the Korean War that convinced the US to keep him on the payroll. For entirety of his rule, China and then Taiwan was a nasty dictatorship. Taiwan didn’t really start changing for the better until Ching Kuo (Chiang’s kid) took over.
more pictures, less writing please…and China pictures much better than American pictures, at least today
agenthex :The country’s far and away largest fundamental problem is one of greed and corruption of those in power.
That could be a good description of another country–one we hold dear. However, another problem is the rule of law. Without stable contract law, business in China will suffer.
That could be a good description of another country–one we hold dear. However, another problem is the rule of law. Without stable contract law, business in China will suffer.
There really is no comparison between the level of corruption in the US and China. It permeates to such an extent through the power structure that officials not taken to graft are the exception.
Without solving that fundamental problem, “law” is not exactly enforced in the way we’ve taken for granted.