The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee will have to wait two more weeks to gets its claws into Toyota, as heavy weather has postponed hearings scheduled for today until the 24th. But don’t expect the delay take any of the pressure of Toyota: lawmakers are taking the extra time to widen their investigations. Automotive News [sub] reports that House Energy Committee Chair Rep Henry Waxman (D-CA) has solicited documents from a number of auto insurers after it was revealed that State Farm had warned the NHTSA of possible unintended acceleration in Toyotas as early as 2007. The Energy Committee has scheduled hearings for the 25th.

Meanwhile, Reuters has published one of the most comprehensive pieces we’ve seen yet on Toyota’s “epic breakdown.” Don’t miss it.

Toyota heads up to Capital Hill tomorrow to face the ire of the U.S. House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform in a hearing that’s been subtly named “Toyota Gas Pedals: Is the Public at Risk?” A memo by committee staff [via the WSJ] sets a paranoid tone for the hearing, as the NHTSA investigation widens beyond gas pedals alone:

Attention is now being focused on the electronic throttle control system (ETC) to determine whether sudden acceleration may be attributable to a software design problem or perhaps to electromagnetic interference. The committee staff found numerous complaints made to NHTSA describing sudden acceleration that was not caused by either floor mats or sticky pedals.

Toyota’s Yoshi Inaba will face the brunt of the questioning, although Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood and NHTSA administrator David Strickland will surely face questions about their oversight of Toyota (or lack thereof).

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Staff from the House Energy and Commerce Committee met with representatives from Toyota yesterday, reports Automotive News [sub], as Congress wades into the Toyota recall debacle. According to a letter from the Energy and Commerce Committee to NHTSA administrator David Strickland and Toyota North America Boss Yoshimi Inaba [letters available in PDF format here], the discussions with Toyota were characterized as “helpful,” but that “it left important questions unanswered, including when Toyota learned about this serious safety defect and what actions the company took to investigate and resolve the hazard.” Hearings have been scheduled for February 25, and the Committee’s letter to Inaba requests disclosure of all internal communication related to to the production shutdown, among other company documents.

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The TARP bailout of GM finance partner GMAC is being criticized by a congressional oversight panel [full report in PDF format here], reports the Detroit Free Press. The panel alleges that the Treasury

has not yet articulated a specific and convincing reason to support the company… It has never stated that a GMAC failure would result in substantial negative consequences for the national economy. If Treasury has made such a determination, then it should say so publicly.

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Bowing to legislative pressure, GM and Chrysler have announced today that they will initiate reviews of the dealer cull undertaken during bankruptcy. GM is announcing a “Comprehensive Plan To Address Dealer Concerns,” while Chrysler characterizes its agreement as a “Binding Independent Review Process for Discontinued Dealers.” Both firms take pains to thank Senator Dick Durban and Rep Steny Hoyer for their leadership in preparing the non-legislative conclusion of months of bitter acrimony. Culled GM and Chrysler dealers, you know who to make your campaign donations to… unless you’re a member of the dissident group the Committee To Restore Dealer Rights. According to Automotive News [sub], the group says the new plans will only allow “between 39 and 51” culled GM dealers to be reinstated. “The GM proposal guarantees that they would win every arbitration,” says one member of the committee, who alleges that the new process is based on the same allegedly flawed data the initial cull was based on. Hit the jump for the plan outlines.

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The recent revelation that congresspeople have been successful in coercing GM to rescind dealer closures in their districts, has the rest of our elected representatives (not to mention GM itself) sitting up and taking notice. In a conference call with Michigan’s congressional delegation, Fritz Henderson said GM was close to a deal which would restore a number of “mistakenly” closed dealerships. But GM hasn’t met with rejected dealers in weeks, and the Committee To Restore Dealer Rights is unaware of any such agreement. “[Henderson] was very vague, and the plan sounded inadequate to me,” Michigan Republican Hoekstra tells Automotive News [sub]. “He explained, for instance, that they might reopen some franchises if they found errors, but he didn’t say what those errors might be.” Henderson also rejected the dealer demand for compensation of $3,000 per vehicle sold in 2006, 2007 and 2008, further supporting suspicions that GM doesn’t have a deal at all. So what is happening?
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CNN Money reports that Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) has pulled the “Clunker Culling” proposal from the economic stimulus plan making its way through Congress. The provision would have provided up to $4,500 in tax credits for scrapping a used vehicle with under 18 mpg and replacing it with a new car. The bill would have cost taxpayers up to $16b, according to CNN, which notes that lack of support from Republicans doomed the bill. Why? Apparently, “the provision required that the [new] vehicle be assembled in the United States.” Who knows, maybe common sense even had anything to do with it. President Obama did not take a strong position on the Clunker provision according to the Detroit News, but he is vocally backing $2b in battery development spending and a $600m purchase of fuel-efficient cars for the government fleet.

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In fourteen days, GM and Chrysler will submit realistic plans for viability to Congress. See what I did there? With January’s sales slaughter revealed, it’s obvious neither automaker can survive without a huge and ongoing injection of working capital from the nation’s working capitol. Even if Uncle Sam provides this staggering amount of money (more than enough to start a car company from scratch), GM and Chrysler wouldn’t make enough profit to pay the interest and the principal during the loan’s term. The plans the automakers are about to present to your elected representatives are a fictional moon shot—with a make-believe launch vehicle that couldn’t propel a chimpanzee ten feet.  

Chrysler will point to its deal with FIAT as their lifesaver. In truth, it’s nothing more than a “free look” for the Italians to figure out what pieces of Chrysler they want to buy when the liquidation sale begins.

Worse, if Congress bails out Chrysler with more of YOUR dollars, the deal gets even sweeter for FIAT. Entry to the US market on the back of the taxpayers, a significant ownership stake and eventual control (for $25m) of Chrysler and the time to try and make it all work. That’s some plan. For FIAT.

But here’s the kicker. Nardelli says Chrysler needs “only” three billion dollars more of your money to get there. Are Bob Corker and Dick Shelby the only two guys in Washington that can see the sheer and utter stupidity of this? It’s as clear as daylight that this dog won’t hunt.

What’s the point of throwing $7b (or more) into a company that has no reason to exist in the US market?  A company that needs import technology for small cars and engines to meet the new standards from the Green Party? Heck, save our money and let FIAT come in on their own.

In GM’s case, the plan will look like everything else Wagoner and his team have presented in the past. Goals and actions that have no hope of realization. So far, the UAW hasn’t made the accommodations required—and never will—to the terms of wage/benefit/work rule parity with the transplants.

The unsecured bondholders and other financial creditors might take a cramdown BUT . . . one of the most skillful members of this group (PIMCO) has already pulled out of the negotiations. How about restructuring of the brands and dealer network? They’ll reveal their latest “no plan” plan (i.e., “we’re still reviewing all options”).

The facts are self evident. GM alone lost 122k units of sales in January 2009 versus last year. At an average wholesale to GM of say $24k/unit, that’s a loss of nearly $3b in revenues for the month. Or a run rate of $36b/year. Throw in the drop in sales in Europe and elsewhere around the world, and it might be another $1b to $2b dollars a month in lost revenues. Combined, it could be as much as $50b revenue hit (annualized) for the first half of this year. GM simply can’t cut its expenses fast enough.  

As for Chrysler, it’s worth repeating what Jim Press told his dealers. (“Without orders, the company has to liquidate.”) Uh Jim, your dealers have over 350k units on the ground and you sold 62k units in January. Do you really expect them to “stock up” now?

Bottom line: the car market will suck for the next six months, if not longer. It makes no sense for Congress, the President or the Car Czar to try and craft a plan that saves Detroit with taxpayer dollars without a bankruptcy.

GM and Chrysler have no viability plan that can work in the current sales environment (not that they had one during better times). If anything, now IS the time for bankruptcy, not later. Let the bankruptcy court system do what it’s designed to do best: figure out what’s worth saving (GM) and what’s not (Chrysler).

When the market does come back—and it will—a restructured and reorganized GM will be well suited to offer a smart and sensible line of brands, cars, and dealers that will all earn substantial profits. Parts of Chrysler will still exist (Jeep, Mopar, a couple of others). And Ford might be able to survive on its own as it gains share from the pieces shed by its Detroit rivals.

Why go to all this trouble of proving a case that doesn’t meet the sniff test to the most junior financial analyst on Wall Street? Is it pure politics to save union jobs and avoid the shame of bankruptcy? Or has Washington, DC and the Messiah Crew (Obama, Pelosi, Reid, and the Democrats in Congress) simply lost all sense of the common good with your tax dollars?

Forget it. Let’s not spend any more taxpayer dollars on a moon shot from Detroit.