Nissan and Renault may be joined at the hip (well, at the CEO anyway), but they’re not going easy on each other as both charge ahead to bring down EV costs. Nissan’s Leaf is currently the cheapest major OEM-produced EV, but at around €30k, it’s still not all that cheap. Now, Renault is saying that its forthcoming Zoe EV will put the hurt on its cousin, the Leaf, with a starting price of “around” €21k. It’s not that much smaller than the Leaf and it’s got the same 100 mile projected range… so what’s Renault’s secret? Does it have some special pricing formula? The answer is yes… but it’s not so secret. You see, when you buy the Zoe (sometime in 2012), you won’t be buying a battery. Instead, you will lease the battery for around €70 per month. You see, unlike Nissan’s Leaf, the Renault Zoe will be able to use Project Better Place’s battery switch-station to swap batteries in just minutes. So, if you charge from home, the Zoe and the Leaf will be largely the same… but if you live near a PBP swap station, the Zoe’s range can be doubled in minutes. Plus, you don’t own the battery, so killer EV depreciation isn’t a worry. It’s like we’ve said: it’s not the cars that will break EVs into the mainstream, it’s the business model.

Consulting firm Accenture took a look at a number of EV pilot programs in hopes of gaining some insights into how exactly the rise of plug-in vehicles will change the automotive industry, the refueling infrastructure and the customer experience [full PDF here], and came away with some interesting conclusions. First, the study finds that the market models for plug-ins will vary from region to region. That’s good news for the automakers, as it makes it less likely that they will be forced to comply with standards set by a single firm dominating a global market model. On the other hand, the regional variations in market models (more on the models themselves shortly) will worsen one of the major challenges of plug-in proliferation, namely scale. The study finds that scale, along with cost and grid control are the three factors that pilot programs can not provide insight into, and all three require “creative” solutions. And here’s where business-as-usual in the car business gets blown wide-open: the business models, rather than the vehicles themselves, are where the real competition is. So, what are the models?

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Last year, Toyota invested $50 million into Tesla. Tesla turned around and spent $42 million of the new money and bought the land and buildings of site 2 of NUMMI in Freemont, CA. As it turns out, the deal did not include the fixtures. Nothing another $17 million could not fix. (Read More…)

Despite launching a frothy IPO, EV maker Tesla’s net loss nearly tripled last year, losing more than $154m compared to a $55.7m loss in 2009. Total revenues were up nearly $5m, but only due to a nearly $20m bump in “development services” income. Revenue from “automotive sales” was down by around $15m. R&D costs skyrocketed from $19.3m to nearly $93m, while “selling, general and administrative” costs doubled to $84m. Still, CEO Elon Musk is all optimism in the firm’s press release, crowing

We are very pleased to report continued revenue growth, improving margins and a steady progression in our Roadster and powertrain activities,. Our powertrain team delivered solid results, with an increase in orders and record deliveries of battery packs and chargers for the Daimler Smart fortwo electric drive, the completion of our development program for the Daimler A-Class, and the commencement of the phase 1 development program for the Toyota RAV4 EV.

Musk noted that the firm is on-track to start delivery of its forthcoming Model S sports sedan in mid-2012. It had better be, because Tesla’s clearly not going to sustain itself on Roadsters.

On the list of things that can go wrong with plug-in cars, this is one the engineers probably never thought of: rodent attack. Cars.com‘s Chevy Volt was parked at a public charging point when a ground error occurred, ending the charging session. We’ll let the firsthand account take it from there:

Monitoring the online ChargePoint portal from home, I hoped the charging station would reset, something it attempts to do a total of four times every 15 minutes. That’s when I received an e-mail from Todd Dore, the treasurer of the Fox Valley Electric Auto Association who parks and charges his converted Volkswagen Beetle right next to our Volt. He said that at 6:30 when he left work, we’d had a “furry visitor,” a brown rat who scurried under our Volt, probably seeking warmth. The temperatures had been below 10 degrees.

Rodents are known to climb into the engine compartments of conventional cars when it’s frigid outside, so it made sense. The Volt maintains a minimum battery temperature when it’s plugged in, even once fully charged, because a warm battery is a more powerful one. It also extends the battery’s longevity, according to Chevrolet.

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The Center for Automotive Research claims that its latest study [full document in PDF here] is not a forecast of EV sales, but rather “focuses on the expected deployment by states.” Still, by using hybrid vehicle sales to determine deployment patterns, and using a national estimate of electric vehicle market share annually (note: “the national estimates used in this paper do not constitute a CAR forecast and only reflect projections that were available at the time of this study”), the study finds that only 496,000 plug-in vehicles will be on the road by 2015, by which time the Obama Administration hopes to have a million EVs on the road. Still, the report envisions annual sales of plug-in vehicles as growing rapidly, from 77k units in 2012 to 140k annual units by 2015… a number that casts some serious doubt on the Administration’s recent (dubious) estimate that 1.2m vehicles will have been produced for the US market by 2015 (and not for the first time).

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Felix Kramer, an entrepreneur and plug-in car activist, is almost certainly the first person in the world to own both a Nissan Leaf and a Chevrolet Volt… which, at least in theory, makes him the perfect person to compare the real-world ownership experiences of these two highly-hyped vehicles (and once again prove the uselessness of “automotive journalism”). Though he demurs that he “hasn’t had much chance to really compare them,” he tells The Solar Home and Business Journal that

It’s quite obvious to me that for two-car families, it’s no problem in any way for the second vehicle to be an all-electric because that’s the car used for local driving. There’s an enormous market of tens of millions for all-electric vehicles despite Americans’ so-called range anxiety.

Cars are sold as giving you freedom. People go into a dealer and say about an all-electric car, “Oh, I have to plug it in. What if I want to drive it across the country someday? I won’t buy this car.” That mentality is very deeply seated, and that’s part of the reason that the plug-in hybrids could be the primary platform for plug-in vehicles for the next decade or two.

In the meantime, people who get a plug-in hybrid as their second vehicle may find themselves asking, “Why did I pay for this engine, I’m just driving it electrically.” In our family, the Leaf will be the car my wife and I will pick first every day when we’re in the Bay Area. When we’re both driving or we want to travel beyond the range of the Leaf, we’ll take the Volt.

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For quite some time, we have been tracking a growing trend in China: Chinese cars. Well, Chinese cars, made by joint ventures with foreign carmakers. Here could be a new one, with a twist: Toyota so far has been hesitant following Nissan and others on the plugin bandwagon. Its Chinese joint venture, FAW-Toyota, will change that. They will come out with a Chinese-branded car that is a Toyota on the outside, and a Chinese-developed EV on the inside. If the information of BJNews (via Gasgoo) is correct, that is. (Read More…)

While EVs are slowly, very slowly  – catching on would be exaggerated, people are starting to think about the finer points. For instance: Electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids are powered by high-voltage batteries of up to 400 volts, possibly more. What happens if one crashes and first responders have to attack the vehicle with power cutters? Will the responder die from electrical shock? This is a hot topic amongst first responders, right up there with dealing with explosive airbags, belt tensioners and other surprises. (Read More…)

The attentive reader of TTAC is not surprised by the news provided by Automobilwoche [sub] that Toyota will introduce a plug-in version of its iQ by 2012. It had been on Toyota’s green roadmap for months. The (not really) surprising news is: You won’t be able to buy the EV iQ when it gets launched. (Read More…)

Back in October, a firm called DBM Energy announced that an Audi A2 fitted with one of its “alpha-polymer” (lithium-metal-polymer) batteries would drive 600km without stopping to recharge or swap batteries, a claim that caused TTAC’s Martin Schwoerer (and others) to sit up and take notice. Schowerer noted

There is nothing new under the sun. You can expect battery capacity-per-weight-unit to expand by around 10% per decade, by incremental improvement. Maybe more. Don’t put your money or stake your rep on anything supposedly revolutionary. There is no way a small four-seater electric can do 600 KM non-stop with one set of batteries (with a $500k fuel cell system: yes, but that’s something else).

Then, days later, the trip was made, and DBM’s battery was hailed as having powered the “Miracle of Berlin.” Of course, Schwoerer pointed out that there were a number of unresolved issues with the stunt, including

DBM Energy GmbH is a mailbox company.

DBM’s website states as contact a non-registered entity named DBM Headquarters, which is located in a smallish office building. In that office building, there are several small-sounding firms such as a long-term storage company, a fire-extinguisher company, and a “battery-service” company.

When companies with no reputation defy the expectations of everyone in the EV business, skepticism is going to take hold. Especially when the car in question burns to a crisp shortly after its record breaking trip.

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What happens when Nissan re-imagines its Leaf EV’s internals into a “sports car of the future,” inspired by its long line of Z cars? You’re looking at it. Nissan will show this Esflow concept at the Geneva Auto Show, and, based on the reaction it receives, they’ll consider a production model. Though it uses Leaf electronics, the Esflow is being presented on a “bespoke” RWD platform, with a pair of electric motors driving the rear wheels. And the Leaf’s battery was likely improved upon for this concept, as Nissan claims about 150 miles of range and a sub-5 second 0-60 time.

In an apparent response to a report detailing the challenges facing President Obama’s goal of getting a million plug-in vehicles on the road, the DOE has released its own report [in PDF here] arguing that the goal is, in fact, achievable. The main thrust of the argument is encapsulated in the table above,

Reaching the goal is not likely to be constrained by production capacity.  Major vehicle manufacturers have announced (or been the subject of media reports) that indicate a cumulative electric drive vehicle manufacturing capacity of over 1.2 million vehicles through 2015.

Ipso-freaking-facto. Done deal, right? Er, no. After all, GM has not confirmed that it will try to build 120k Volts starting next year. In fact, the Bloomberg story cited by the DOE actually says

GM now is working with suppliers to raise 2012 capacity from an earlier target of 60,000. It may not build that many if parts aren’t available or demand isn’t strong enough… Randy Fox, a GM spokesman, declined to comment on production plans. He said he didn’t know how many people have ordered a Volt or how long they will have to wait.

But hey, that sounds good enough for, well, government work. What with Obama’s policy apparently relying on the Volt to make up about half of the volume of plug-ins needed to meet his million-by-2015 goal and all. Meanwhile, Fisker has delayed production of its first car already, and has no in-house manufacturing experience, making its leap from 0-50k units over the next two years more than a little improbable. As for the prospect of Think’s City EV (proud recipient of NHTSA’s first EV recall) selling 20k units considering it’s starting pricing at $34k-$40k (for a tiny, 100-mile-range BEV), well, we wouldn’t bank on it. EV production numbers have consistently been optimistic, and are continually being revised (typically downward). Using them as evidence of the attainability of a political goal seems like a recipe for a one-way trip to “the trough of disappointment.“

Senator Debbie Stabenow has introduced S. 3715, known as the Charging America Forward Act, which would extend tax credits for plug-in vehicles until 2014 and “front load” the credits, to create a dealership-level discount, among other provisions. Though inspired by President Obama’s call to put a million plug-in vehicles on the road by 2015, Stabenow’s website plays up a single, all-important angle to the bill

Michigan is already a leader in emerging hi-tech battery and electric car production. Other countries are acting to develop their own advanced vehicle markets because they realize the tremendous economic potential this new technology represents.  These initiatives will allow Michigan innovators to continue to out-compete the world and create new jobs here

Though the full text of the bill hasn’t hit Govtrack yet, the DetN reports that it’s chock full of plug-in subsidies, so it seems that Stabenow’s proposa is considerably more dramatic than the recent plug-in credit extension introduced by Rep Sander Levin. And that’s not necessarily a good thing…

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The DetNews points us to a Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration report [full document in PDF format here] that reveals

Approximately $33 million in credits for plug-in electric and alternative-fueled vehicles credits were erroneously claimed by at least 12,920 taxpayers through July 24, 2010, according to a report publicly released today by the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA).

That means about 20 percent of the $163.9 million in credits claimed by taxpayers from January 1, 2010 to July 24, 2010 for plug-in electric and alternative motor vehicle credits were claimed in error.

The erroneous claims TIGTA identified resulted from inadequate IRS processes to ensure information reported by individuals claiming the credits met qualifying requirements for vehicle year, placed in-service date, and make and model. TIGTA’s review of electronically filed tax returns identified individuals who erroneously claimed the same vehicle for multiple plug-in electric and alternative motor vehicle credits or claimed an excessive number of vehicles for personal use credits.

Zoinks!
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