Since we’ve already irritated Saabistas by posting a comparison of the Nissan Juke to the 96, we might as well just come out and say it: Saab is one sick puppy. Third quarter results are out for the Dutch-Swedish automaker, and they’re not good: the firm has lost $70m on an operating basis last quarter, and has burnt through $160m in the the first nine months of 2010 [full results in PDF here]. Wholesale and retail sales in the first three quarters were down by 10 percent and 45 percent respectively compared to the first nine months of 2009, and Saab has cut its 2010 sales projections from 45,000 units to 30,000 units, or half of the 60k projection Saab started 2010 with. Improbably, the company still believes it will sell 80,000 Saabs next year, and 120,000 in 2012. And though Saab-Spyker has a negative equity of about $234m, the company says it does not need to recapitalize. In other words, comparisons to the Nissan Juke are the very least of Saab’s worries.

News that the government will sell only $6b-$8b worth of its GM equity has been joined by an even more surprising GM IPO announcement: GM will buy the Treasury’s entire $2.1b holding of preferred stock in the initial offering. GM has not announced how much it will pay for the stake, and the Detroit News reports that it’s not yet clear if GM will also buy some $400m in preferred stock held by the Canadian and Ontario governments. We’re also getting word via Twitter that GM will put $4b in cash and $2b worth of its stock into its overdrawn UAW pension fund, as well as making a $2.8b payment to the UAW VEBA account. With a $5b line of credit secured, GM says these and other steps will reduce its debt by $11b over an unspecified timeline. And speaking to Reuters, GM CEO Dan Akerson made it clear what the point of these moves are:

It’s up to people like you and me, the burden we share, that we deliver on the promise and return the investment to the American taxpayers. We are going to do our level best to make that happen, and we will only do that by expanding our industrial base and entering new markets and being a better competitor.

Of course, we’ll have to see what value The General places on the preferred stock to know how seriously Akerson should be taken. After all, talk is cheap and money isn’t. [UPDATE: It appears that GM will buy the preferred stock for $25.50 each, essentially giving the Government its book value of $2.14b]

Although the Korean Won has stayed strong this year, hurting the profitability of Korean exports, Hyundai has banked $1.2b in profits in the first three quarters of 2010, reports Automotive News [sub]. Analysts had expected the resurgent automaker to earn closer to $1b in profits, but they say that an even stronger Yen has helped Hyundai cut into the sales of its Japanese competitors. And with a new Elantra, Equus, Sonata Wagon, Veloster sports coupe and other much-anticipated products about to hit the market, Hyundai is expected to keep its momentum rolling. Fujio Ando, adviser at Chibagin Asset management explains

As the Japanese Yen reaches new highs against the US Dollar, so does the anxiety in Japanese boardrooms. How does an export-heavy country like Japan cope with an ever appreciating currency? That’s the topic of conversation at Nissan HQ. The Wall Street Journal reports that Nissan’s COO, Toshiyuki Shiga, is concerned. Extremely concerned.

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Ford’s profitability outstripped even yesterday‘s $1.37b estimate, coming in at a whopping $1.68b, as Ford made mad money in the North American market in the 3rd Quarter of this year, for a fifth consecutive profitable quarter. Global revenue was down by about $1b, but excluding Volvo from Q33 2009 results, revenue was actually up $1.7b. $1.6b of Ford’s profitability came from North America, as its most crucial market carried the company over weak overseas results. And with $900m in positive cash flow, Ford says its “automotive cash” will equal its debt by the year’s end, sooner than it had previously forecast. Ford paid of $2b of its revolving credit line last quarter, and plans to pay off the final $3.6b it owes the UAW VEBA trust in Q4. By the end of the year, Ford estimates it will have reduced its overall debt by $10.8b over the course of 2010. Hit the jump for a few key slides from Ford’s Q3 financial presentation.

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With some 17.5 percent of GM owned by the UAW’s VEBA trust, workers have been finding that their union has a hard time juggling its ownership and union responsibilities. And since workers have no real recourse against their union, GM is giving them the opportunity to profit from their sacrifices… and pay back taxpayers in the process. Automotive News [sub] reports that

GM is offering [a directed] share program as part of an IPO scheduled for November… giving about 600,000 employees and retirees [and dealers] in the United States and Canada the chance to buy stock in the company’s upcoming initial public offering at the IPO price.

The only downsides: you have to register by the 15th, and the minimum buy-in is “expected to be greater than $1,000.” Otherwise, getting in on the ground floor of GM’s IPO is a swell opportunity to keep GM’s merry-go-round spinning. Sure, the UAW VEBA fund is likely to dump all its stock at the first possible opportunity, likely driving down post-IPO values. And yes, the government will eventually have to sell off its entire stake in The General as well, meaning another 60 percent of the company’s equity will also be up for sale in the short-to-medium-term, likely depressing prices even further. Still, GM is going to need all the help it can get if it wants to be valued at or above the $50b taxpayers put into it. It’s time for the employees, retirees and fanboys to step up, put their money where their pro-bailout rhetoric is, and take their beloved company off the taxpayers’ hands.

Bloomberg reports that the credit rating firm Fitch Ratings has given GM a BB- credit default rating, the same as Ford Motor Credit. The difference: Ford has over $20b in debt, while GM is sitting on less debt and more cash. So why the identical rating? Fitch’s Stephen Brown explains:

Although they have similar ratings, you sort of get to them from different paths. GM doesn’t have a whole lot of debt, but they have very large pension obligations. Ford’s pension obligations are significant, but they’re lower than GM’s by quite a bit. But Ford has a lot of debt.

At the end of the first half of 2010, GM had $32b in cash and $8b in debt, while Ford had $22b in cash and $27b in debt. GM’s pensions, on the other had, are underfunded to the tune of $27b, while Ford’s are underfunded by $6.1b. Analysts have consistently suggested that GM’s IPO valuation should be in the neighborhood of Ford’s $40b market cap, and an identical credit rating seems to confirm the wisdom (or at least the popularity) of the comparison. Unfortunately, a $40b GM valuation would fail TTAC’s last standard for even marginal bailout “success.” After all, if GM is worth less than the $50b taxpayers put into it, there’s going to be no chance of spinning the IPO as a success.

GM”s IPO scuttlebutt has been dominated in recent weeks by speculation about possible foreign “cornerstone” investors. But, according to five sources who spoke with Reuters

GM is likely to sell about 80 percent of the common shares in its IPO and more than 90 percent of the preferred shares in North America.

Yes, despite deep skepticism about the GM IPO’s appeal to retail investors, GM will sell most of its equity in North America, and it’s even splitting its share price to bring the per-stock price into retail range. Why the sudden back-away from talk of courting global investment and “cornerstone investors” from abroad? Politics, baby! With Chrysler likely to end up owned outright by Fiat, something had to be done to keep The General at least nominally American-owned. Meanwhile, in news that is sure to thrill prospective retail investors, Special Inspector General of the TARP program (SIGTARP) Neil Barofsky is investigating the IPO… and says GM’s per-share price will have to hit $133.78 (pre-split) for the Government to break even. GM’s highest-ever stock price was $94.63, and that was back in April of 2000. Are we getting excited yet, retail investors?

Despite not having spent a dime on the US firm, Fiat is widely credited with “rescuing” Chrysler. Here’s another way of looking at it: the United States taxpayers bailed out Fiat, an Italian firm with no presence in the US market. For no money down, Fiat got a 20 percent stake in a Chrysler that, although troubled, had been rinsed clean in bankruptcy. Now, analysts looking at Fiat’s spin-off of its automotive unit are telling Automotive News [sub] that

The government of Sweden’s Västra Götaland County has referred Saab to the Swedish Enforcement Service (Kronofogdemyndigheten) over nonpayment of a $16.2m loan, reports thelocal.se. The bill is for repayment of a portion of a roughly $45m in aid extended by the county to Saab during its first weeks of bankruptcy. Because the $16.2m portion was used specifically to guarantee employee salaries, the County is arguing that it is not covered by Saab’s 75% writedown agreement with creditors. Saab insists that the salary guarantee portion is covered by the cramdown, and says it has paid its 25 percent of the total loan.

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Digging through the finances of a company as large as GM is never an easy task, especially when the balance book in question was recently wiped clean in a bailout-bankruptcy. Luckily, Bloomberg columnist Jonathan Weil has the chops to do the task justice, and he’s come up with a fascinating insight: through the power of an accounting tool known as “Goodwill,” Weil claims that GM has juiced its assets and liabilities during its “fresh start.” He notes with TTACian zeal:

It’s as if a $30.2 billion asset suddenly materialized out of thin air. In the upside-down world that is GM’s balance sheet, that’s exactly what happened.

The short version: GM undervalued some assets and overvalued some liabilities during its “fresh start.” The scary result: improvement in GM’s performance and creditworthiness could actually lead to writedowns on its Goodwill… which is currently The General’s largest non-current asset. Oh yes, and without that $30.2b in Goodwill, GM would have about an equity value of -$6.3b. Welcome to the new General Motors…
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We can’t pretend to be overly enamored with former “car czar” Steve Rattner, who oversaw the auto bailout before being disgraced for his role in a New York pension fund pay-for-play scandal. Still, the guy was in the thick of things during last year’s negotiations over Detroit’s rescue, so he knows where the bodies are buried. And in his new book, Overhaul, which has been released to select outlets ahead of its October 14 publication, he tells a whole lot of stories about the months of bailout proceedings that led to the rescue of GM and Chrysler. Of course, Rattner has an agenda in all this, namely proving that

so he’s not necessarily an unbiased source. But with grains of salt at the ready, let’s dive into his spilled guts and see if what secrets lie beneath.

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Another day, another story detailing the political nightmare that is the GM IPO. The WSJ [sub] reports that

The U.S. Treasury is concerned about how many overseas investors it should allow to buy big stakes in General Motors Co. through the car maker’s initial public offering this fall, according to people familiar with the matter.

The caution—aimed at minimizing any political fallout from the massive stock sale—could involve limiting or being selective about which non-U.S. investors such as sovereign-wealth funds would be invited to be “cornerstone” investors in the IPO

Expect Treasury to publicize any limitations on foreign investment in GM’s IPO sometime “within the next couple of weeks.” And no matter how the bureaucrats rule, it won’t be great for taxholders. After all, foreign investors (particularly in China) have the motivation and means to invest heavily in GM, which would help boost the IPO price. The downside, of course, is that the taxpayers’ $50b investment wouldn’t have kept the company American-owned. If keeping ownership in the US is the priority, it’s fair to expect a considerably lower IPO valuation. Heads they win, tails we lose. Ain’t the intersection of politics and business grand?

From a week deep in our “How The Hell Did We Miss That” file comes a Reuters report that shows GM considered floating its IPO on the Hong Kong Hang Seng index. GM’s interest in a Hong Kong float has obvious roots: the company is extremely well-positioned in China, where high savings rates and the prospect of steady local sales growth could have helped bring in both private investors and GM’s partner firms. But according to a Reuters source, GM rejected the idea because it would have delayed the IPO past its Thanksgiving deadline

I don’t think signaling goodwill toward Asia is likely to be a significant enough argument for all the cost and complexity. I don’t want to overstate the cost and complexity but it’s not insignificant

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Think GM has a tough sell for its coming IPO? Chinese battery/automaker BYD is preparing its own $420m stock offering, likely to be floated on the Shenzhen A-Shares exchange, in the midst of a Chinese-market downturn, and an ongoing lawsuit with electronics manufacturing giant Foxconn. And all this comes after a long run of good news for the Hong Kong-listed BYD, which had been running strong on optimism generated by Warren Buffet’s major investment in the firm nearly two years ago. So, is BYD in real trouble of having its overvalued stock burst, or is the company strong enough to weather the storm that’s swirling around it?
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