One of the biggest clouds hovering over Better Place’s venture in Israel – and globally – is what stands behind the well-prepared presentations and thoroughly thought out, customer-oriented marketing. What makes the seemingly adventurous venture appealing to the business hounds investing their best capital in it? Such questions from journalists are usually answered with a neat smile, a corporate joke and a dry statement.

While Better Place still isn’t revealing its global business plan, it finally sheds some light on the numbers behind its Israeli venture, as part of a worldwide roadshow in preparation for the company’s upcoming $300 million capital raising.

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Are we “out of the ditch”? While some in the world of financial analysis say the US is headed for a double-dip, Fiat-Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne reckons the worst is behind us, but that growth from here will be painstakingly slow. Right or wrong, at least Marchionne isn’t falling victim to the irrational optimism that traditionally infects the auto industry…

Around the time of the founding of the United States, the Mexican state of Guanajuato became home to of the one of the biggest silver mines in the world, which produced as much as 2/3rds of the world’s supply of silver at its peak. Today it’s not precious metal that’s driving Guanajuato’s booming economy, but cars, as the world’s automakers flock to Central Mexico. Between 2005 and 2008, GM, Ford and Michelin dumped $1.8b into production in the state, and the expansion is still picking up steam. In the last year, Volkswagen invested $800m in engine production capacity in Silao, Pirelli built a $210m facility and Mazda just revealed it would build a new compact car plant there in June. Toyota is said to be the next to set up shop in Guanajuato, but for the moment Honda is the latest automaker to announce new operations in Guanajuato, as Automotive News [sub] reports the Japanese automaker will spend $800m on an assembly plant there. Honda, which is fleeing a strong yen which has battered Japanese exports, will start building 200k subcompacts per year in 2014. Clearly Guanajuato’s got it’s automotive mojo flowing… but are the days of new Japanese transplant factories in the US over? Is it only a matter of time before the coyotes start smuggling Detroiters into Silao, Celaya, and the Puerto Interior??

Just three weeks after Saab narrowly avoided being pushed into bankruptcy by supplier SwePart, SvD.se reports that three other suppliers have now initiated the bankruptcy process by requesting that Sweden’s national debt bailiffs pursue their debts. One Spanish supplier is reported to be foreclosing on €2m ($2.8m in debt), while two of the rebelling German firms are said to be owed at least €5m each. And though Saab says it is meeting with the Spanish firm to try to hammer out a deal,  SvD reports that four of the 14 outstanding claims against Saab have run out of time. Lars Holmqvist, head of the European Association of Automotive Suppliers argues that, by paying some suppliers and not others, Saab is de facto bankrupt, and that a trustee should be brought in to pay suppliers in order of priority, rather than order of Saab’s necessity. Meanwhile, Saab CEO Victor Muller has been in Brazil and the US, trying to bring new investors on board, as  its Chinese funding won’t be approved for two-to-three months, if ever. Meanwhile, “taxes and fees” must be paid by Friday, August salaries are due in just two weeks, and Muller cut his latest money-raising trip short to reassure workers back in Trolhättan. But according to thelocal.se, even the most optimistic of union leaders hope Saab will have a new CEO soon. Do I hear the fat lady warming up her vocal cords?

Having been asked by a certain newspaper to review the new book “American Wheels, Chinese Roads: The Story of General Motors in China [more info on that review coming soon], I’ve been spending my quiet moments over the last week or so looking into GM’s Chinese operations. The book’s author, Michael Dunne, documents GM’s rise in the Middle Kingdom from the perspective of a well-informed outsider, revealing just how delicate one of GM’s best-performing global maneuvers really was. But after following the rise of GM in China, Dunne notes the December 2009 announcement that GM was selling a 1% stake in its Shanghai-GM (SGM) joint venture to its Chinese partner SAIC (for the paltry sum of $85m no less), arguing that GM had made a dangerous leap of necessity. This sale, implies Dunne, could well have been the tipping point that leads to GM being surpassed by its erstwhile junior (in size, technology and global reach) partner, SAIC. And, in the words of “one GM executive who used to work in China,” GM would need

good luck getting that back.

But, back in June, GM CEO Dan Akerson told GM’s shareholder meeting that he wants to do just that, saying

We have an option to buy that 1 percent. It’s our intention to exercise that.

With Akerson’s announcement, the mystery of GM’s “golden share” sale deepened. At first the question was simply “why would GM sell its 1%?” but now there’s another mystery: why would GM want it back? After some digging, it seems that we are now able to resolve the first mystery, and report why GM sold its one percent. But the whole deal is still surrounded by several layers of mystery which conceal whether GM will in fact be able to regain its 50-50 partnership in SGM, why it would want to and whether its gambit was ultimately worthwhile. And given how important China has been (and continues to be) to GM’s global business, this is definitely an issue that GM- and industry-watchers will want to better understand.

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With GM’s share price currently hovering below $25, well under its $33 IPO price, The General is holding its second annual Global Business Conference in hopes of encouraging investors the world over to buy into its turnaround. A webcast is currently streaming over at the GM Investor Relations website, but the key points are available in slides available in PDF here. The presentation involves nearly every level of GM’s business, so listening in and reading the entire PDF is going to be the best way to make sense of what GM is trying to communicate… but if you just want an overview, check out the gallery below for a few hand-picked slides, illustrating some of the more important points.

Honda, long a fixture in the upper reaches of rolling YTD sales charts, has been well and properly knocked off its pedestal by now, with its best-seller, the Accord, just barely making it into the top ten at number nine. Civic came in at 11th, while CR-V was 14th. And Honda’s not the only long-reigning volume champ that’son its way down: compared to last year, Toyota’s Corolla and Camry have shed about eight percent of their volume, and right below them the Altima and Fusion are both growing at around 17.5%. By the end of this month, Toyota could easily have only one vehicle in the top five (and could even be knocked out altogether), Honda could be completely out of the top ten, and Ford, Chevy and Nissan could be dominating the upper reaches of our YTD chart. Ch-ch-ch-changes…

[UPDATE: Old Codger-friendly version in gallery below]

Welcome back to ongoing coverage of the latest transcontinental tale of romance and betrayal, in which Volkswagen and Suzuki’s young-but-troubled relationship is put to the test while the world watches. Last time we checked in, a piece of pricey gossip suggested what the rumors had been saying for weeks: VW and Suzuki were headed for Splitsville. But despite the angry blogging outbursts and talk of “reviewing the relationship,” Volkswagen is standing by its Japanese bride, telling Automotive News Europe [sub] that the latest gossip that the “relationship is headed for dissolution” is “nonsense.” Suzuki joined the show of support, saying it had no plans to leave. But all the while, an Italian temptress is putting even more pressure on this relationship, as Bertel reported last month: (Read More…)

According to Automotive News [sub]’s latest breakdown of Chrysler-Fiat’s product plans, a lot has changed since the big Five Year Plan product cadence guide was released in late 2009 [PDF here]. The Chrysler brand’s C-segment offering appears to have been pushed back a year, its 2014MY B-segment car is AWOL and there’s no sign of a planned MY2014 “Midsized Crossover” or T&C. Planned MY2013 “Major Modifications” for Ram Light Duty, Heavy Duty and Chassis Cab are also nowhere in sight, although the “under consideration” MY2012 minivan-based pickup is back on, likely for MY2014. A MY2012 Challenger refresh is also off, according to these plans. And what’s taking up the slack? Alfa Romeos, and lots of them. Sergio and company didn’t mention Alfas during the seven hours of PowerPoint presentations back in late ’09, but it’s clear that his priority is on bringing Alfa’s 5-door subcompact MiTo, Giulietta compact, Giulia midsizer and Compact CUV to the US. Which means the cupboard will be largely bare over the next year, and thereafter another rush of products will launch across all six mass-market brands. Chrysler’s sales are growing at the moment, but can this plan maintain the momentum? The folks in Auburn Hills certainly hope so…

When should a redesigned car get a new name? Whenever the old one wasn’t a success? Or virtually never? Can car companies count on the excellence of a new car to reverse whatever damage was done to the public perception of the model name in the past?

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As far as manufacturer PR reps are concerned, there’s nothing worse than an automotive media outlet that’s willing to criticize a car. But when the unthinkable does happen and, say… I don’t know, Consumer Reports fails to recommend a new Civic, at least there will always be another publication that backs up your opinion. And, in the midst of unprecedented C-segment competition, Honda’s Executive VP for sales John Mendel trotted out this very approach recently. In an email to dealers that was obtained by the LA Times, Mendel wrote

Sometimes you disagree even with those for whom you have the greatest respect. And it seems as if that is what has occurred with the Consumer Reports review of the 2012 Honda Civic LX. We fundamentally disagree with their suggestion that Civic doesn’t rank among their recommended small cars…

Among many other very positive reviews of the Civic lineup, Motor Trend magazine recently tested eight compact cars, including Civic. The respected auto enthusiast magazine -– which knows a thing or two about ride and handling –- ranked Civic second among eight compact cars in the comparison drive. Many would be thrilled with this result. However, we disagree with Motor Trend as well –- we think there is no better compact car than Civic.

Luckily Motor Trend’s staff empathizes… they wish they could have given all the cars first place! And what about Car & Driver giving the Civic second place in its comparison… of two? In all seriousness though, Honda needs to check itself for signs of bunker mentality. Yes, Mendel’s responsibility is sales not product development, but creating an insular world where critical opinions are ignored and feedback is cherry-picked for the rosiest possible picture is bad for the long-term culture of an automaker.

Compare this approach to that taken by Honda Europe. It’s previous generation of Europe-only Civic (FK/FN) was widely criticized in the press for its poor-riding torsion beam rear suspension, lack of refinement and dynamic failings. With a new Civic coming to Frankfurt, Honda Europe is making it clear (by releasing the video shown above) that it is addressing those criticisms head-on, promising a “two-generation improvement” in ride quality. That’s the Honda that became a global player: responding to criticism, not burying its head in the sand.

From the “sidelines” of the MBS conference in Traverse City Michigan, Wards Auto reports that Fiat-Chrysler CEO Sergio Marchionne is not keen on giving the UAW a board seat. UAW President Bob King has been pushing for VW Works Council-style representation on the Chrysler board, but as Marchionne explains

The best intervention that the unions or labor or organized labor can bring to the party is a support for the choice of the right leader to lead the organization… I understand Bob. I understand what he’s saying (but) we have to be very careful that we don’t exaggerate the value of co-determination

Co-determination gives rise to two decision-making bodies. The executive board makes decisions. And the unions sit on supervisory boards, one of which is the choice of the CEO. The most fundamental and difficult decision that a board makes is the choice of a CEO. If you make the right choice, issues with labor unions will not arise

Considering the UAW VEBA trust fund is the single minority shareholder in his company, Marchionne is admirably and typically frank in dismissing his union boss’s ambition. And since Marchionne doesn’t intend on retiring before 2015, his answer might as well have been “why do you need a board seat, when you have me?” But there’s another aspect to his argument that reveals that Bob King might have already doomed the union’s chances at a board seat.

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Edmunds Autoobserver reports that Tesla CEO Elon Musk revealed in today’s Q2 analyst call that

“we’re in discussions with [Toyota] for a deal that is an order of magnitude larger than [the previous, $100m deal].” A Tesla official later confirmed to AutoObserver that by “order of magnitude,” Musk was stating that the 8-year-old company was discussing a $1 billion deal with the world’s largest automaker.

Holy Shnikeys! Check out Tesla’s Q2 shareholder letter here.

[UPDATE: So, what’s going on? Toyota Japan reps are on break until Saturday, and we’re still waiting on word from ToMoCo’s US operations. Ask us to speculate, and we’d guess it has something to do with the NUMMI plant Toyota sold Tesla (the joint Tesla-Toyota RAV4 EV will be produced and sold to the public, but a plant has not yet been named. A joint venture at NUMMI makes sense because Tesla can’t fill it to capacity alone. On the other hand, Wards reports that Toyota may be leaning towards Ontario as a production site for the RAV4 EV). Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk aren’t saying anything for now either. Musk was last seen talking about saving humanity by helping it become a multiplanetary species… let’s just hope we find out something else about this “billion dollar” deal before Elon decamps for Burning Man later this month.]

A final rule for 2017-2025 CAFE standards won’t be published until September, but a pre-publication notice by the EPA [PDF here] reveals some of the key details we’ve been looking for. The broad strokes, which we are already well aware of are shaping up as follows:

NHTSA currently intends to propose standards that would be projected to require, on an average industry fleet wide basis, 40.9 mpg in model year 2021, and 49.6 mpg in model year 2025.  For passenger cars, the annual increase in stringency between model years 2017 to 2021 is expected to average 4.1 percent, and to average 4.3 percent between model years 2017 and 2025. Like EPA, in recognition of the utility requirements of full-size pick-up trucks and the unique challenges to improving fuel economy compared to other light-duty trucks and passenger cars, NHTSA intends to propose a lower annual rate of improvement for light-duty trucks in the early years of the program. For light-duty trucks, the proposed overall annual rate of fuel economy improvement in model years 2017 through 2021 would be 2.9 percent per year.  NHTSA expects to change the slopes of the fuel economy footprint curves for light-duty trucks from those in the 2012-2016 rule, which would effectively make the annual rate of improvement for smaller light-duty trucks in model years 2017 through 2021 higher than 2.9 percent, and the annual rate of improvement for larger light-duty trucks over the same time period lower than 2.9 percent.  For model years 2022 through 2025, NHTSA expects to propose conditional standards with an overall annual rate of fuel economy improvement for light-duty trucks of 4.7 percent per year

We had heard that trucks would improve their efficiency at a rate of 3.5% rather than 2.9% for the 2017-2021, and a 2022-2025 growth rate of 5% rather than 4.7%. But then, cars were supposed to improve by 5% in the 2017-2025 period, so both truck and car standards seem likely to end up lower than what the president’s report seemed to promise. But that’s not the only bad news for anyone hoping for tough fuel efficiency standards (or, good news for truck-dependent automakers)… with the release of this notice, we have an initial sense of the loopholes that will be included, and they appear to be of the hefty variety.

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Every month, Bloomberg publishes monthly auto sales estimates from the leading analysts… and as this month’s survey proves, they’re all over the place. With SAAR estimates running from 11.4m units to 12.1m units, and with Ford’s growth estimates ranging from 4.2% to 11%, it’s clear that we will have some winners and losers from the bunch. In short, the analyst community needs a little truth injection… which, of course, is where TTAC comes in. This month, and every month in the future, TTAC will be grading analysts on the accuracy of their forecasts. By comparing analyses from month to month, we hope to build a case for which analysts are the most consistently accurate. Industry analysts beware: TTAC has put you on notice!