Though the auto bailout is being widely defended in the political realm as a jobs-saving measure, the industry sees the rescue’s value in precisely the opposite light, as industry and supplier execs rate “capacity rationalization” as the most positive effect of the bailout. And, reports Automotive News [sub], Ford and GM could still end up cutting as many as six more plants over the next few years as questions linger about volume recovery in the larger market. Of the three GM plants likely to be shut down, the former Saturn plant at Spring Hill, TN, is the most likely to survive as it includes a paint shop, a small engine plant and associated parts manufacturing facilities. In contrast, analysts note that GM’s Janesville, WI, plant is the firm’s oldest and is therefore far less likely to survive, and its Shreveport, LA, compact truck plant is part of “Old GM” and will likely be liquidated. Similarly, Ford’s Ranger plant in Minnesota, as well as its Avon, OH Econoline plant and its Flat Rock, MI Mustang plant could face shutdowns. Ranger is running out of production, Econoline has been losing share to Ford’s more-efficient Transit Connect, and Mustang has been losing market share to Camaro while facing a Mazda pullout from the Flat Rock plant.

Because GM is adding jobs at other plants, the net job loss from its three likely shutdowns (two of which are currently idle) could be relatively low, but then cost savings aren’t likely to match those accrued by past shutdowns either. Ford, meanwhile, is facing a bit more disruption if Mazda pulls out of Flat Rock, but could accrue more savings than GM as only the Ranger plant is scheduled to lose its production. In any case, the UAW will have to weigh its desire to keep plants open with its desire to mitigate the inequity of the two-tier wage system… as well as its desire to gain board seats. All of which could make the UAW’s upcoming bargaining session (not to mention the political debate about the auto bailout) much more interesting…

With €30m from PangDa and €30m from Gemini Investments, Saab restarted production today at its Trollhättan factory. According to SaabsUnited, the line will run at 80% speed today and Monday, before moving to 100% (over 200 cars per day) by the middle of next week. Speaking at a press conference, CEO Victor Muller reflected:

It’s been an interesting lesson. A company like Saab, that lives in a glass house, should never be caught in a situation where there is not enough cash to withstand the storm as the one we have seen now. What happened seemed like a very insignificant situation became a very significant situation, and next thing you know, you are losing six weeks of production… it was very, very tough and we’ve had some very adverse circumstances that we’ve had to live with, but we got out of it. I think that if you got through 2009-2010 as Saab has been, anything else is relatively easy. We will definitely ensure that this will not happen again. This means that we will be on a quest to ensure that we have sufficient funds at all times to overcome adveersities like this because we can’t afford to have another production stoppage with all the relating downsides, such as disappointed customers, upset suppliers and media attention… that is definitely not in our interests.

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Today, Japanese automakers announced domestic and global production numbers for April. April was the first month to take the full brunt of the March 11 tsunami. For the first time, it is possible to get a clear picture of car-nage 2.0, and the carnage is gruesome. Most of Japan’s auto industry had been down for the first half of April, and came only tentatively back in the second half. At home, all major Japanese automakers were hit hard in April. Overseas production was impacted to varying degrees. On a global basis, the Japanese auto industry lost more than 600,000 units in April, or 35.7 percent of its global production in April 2010. Gory details after the jump … (Read More…)

When I visited GM’s Detroit-Hamtramck Assembly plant back in October, I was greeted with a few surprises. One was a small fire that flared briefly on my sweater after a cinder from the Volt’s body-welding station struck me. The other was the sight of GM’s latest, most high-tech green car being assembled on a line that was filled with GM’s oldest-school dinosaur cars, the Cadillac DTS and Buick Lucerne. The scene was no doubt intended to inspire appreciation for the changing face of GM, but the scarcity of Volts amid the oceans of giant front-drive barges (production was just beginning) made it clear that it would be a while before Volt production would occupy much of the sprawling facility. With the DTS and Lucerne headed for retirement, the new 2013 Malibu will be taking up residence at Detroit-Hamtramck later this year, even as Volt production capacity is increased to hit next year’s 60k unit goal. And now GM is announcing that the next generation of Chevy Impala will be built at Detroit-Hamtramck as well, leaving folks in Oshawa saying “eh?” (or words to that effect).

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After reaping the hurricane by forcing “Tier One” workers at GM’s Orion Assembly plant into the UAW’s “Tier Two” last year, essentially giving workers a 50% pay cut, GM has been working with the UAW ever since to mitigate that decision. Now, Bloomberg reports that the UAW’s GM negotiator is targeting the $14/hour Tier One wages for growth in upcoming negotiations, arguing that the lower pay rate is “not a middle class wage.” But, he adds

The union doesn’t expect to reach $28 an hour this year for new workers, and it doesn’t intend to make GM uncompetitive

We’ll have to wait and see what that means, but any effort on the part of GM and the UAW to reduce the gap between Tier One and Tier Two wages will help relieve the inevitable shop-floor tensions that such inequity creates.

We still have not heard from Saab and there have been six weeks without production. It eventually reaches a point when you have to make a decision

Johan Andersson of the Swedish unit of supplier giant Lear in the WSJ, on why his employers just laid off all 160 workers of its Trollhättan-based Saab workforce. Apparently Mr Andersson and Lear aren’t any more encouraged by Saab’s PangDa deal than TTAC. And considering that the Chinese dealer group is telling Gasgoo that “production has already restarted” at Saab, the fleeing suppliers who haven’t even heard from Saab yet create some credibility problems for the PangDa-Saab alliance (even if PangDa was referencing GM production of the 9-4X at Ramos Arizpe). Which makes the dire rumors that the deal has not, nor will be, blessed by the Chinese government a little more worrying. Sounds like the rotund lady is warming up her vocal cords…

Despite deep skepticism about the value of Saab’s latest “alliance” with the Chinese dealer group PangDa, it seems that the Swedish automaker will restart production next Wednesday. SaabsUnited translates a DI.se report

“I expect the plant to begin production on Wednesday of next week since they’ve come to the Saab on Tuesday this week,” said Gunnar Brunius, Purchasing and Production Manager at Saab Automobile to DI.

On Tuesday, he initiates the process of agreeing with Saab’s 800 suppliers so that they start to deliver the components again after a six-week shutdowns.

The major suppliers, including IAC, Sweden, Plastal and car seat manufacturer Lear, are invited to personal meetings, while many other contacts are handled through e-mail.

Saab will reportedly restart production at a rate of 230-240 cars per day, but first it will have to pay off suppliers. We’ll see if that actually gets accomplished before we take this report too seriously, especially since CEO Victor Muller has admitted that negotiations with suppliers could take “several weeks.” But, Muller tells Saab employees that “we will never give up,” so who knows how long Saab’s death throes could last.

Mazda may be free from its less-than-entirely-successful relationship with Ford, but when it comes to US production, Mazda is still very much stuck in its Ford-dependent past. B-Series pickup production has ended in St Paul, but Tribute is still built alongside Escape in Kansas City (for the moment), and the majority of Mazda’s US production is still accounted for by Mazda6, which is also built alongside Fords at the shared Flat Rock “Auto Alliance” plant. But AutoWeek‘s Hans Greiml reports that the Nikkan Kogyo newspaper believes Mazda could be looking to pull out from Flat Rock.

the Mazda6 is a big reason Mazda can’t turn a regional operating profit in North America–one of its most important markets.

The company planned to produce 100,000 Mazda6 units annually at the Flat Rock, Mich., plant, when the redesigned sedan was launched there in mid-2008. Then the financial crisis hit.

Last year the plant built only 45,168 units.

Mazda is cagey about what options it is mulling. If it quits producing the Mazda6, it could bring in another vehicle–or Mazda could quit the plant completely. Speculation abounds in Japan that Mazda is eyeing a new, lower cost North American production base in Mexico.

Ford is tooling up for what is likely to be a tough UAW contract negotiation in light of its return to hefty profits. And in hopes of shifting the conversation from its strong financial performance, Ford is highlighting the fact that it still pays $8 more per hour than its competition. Of course, there has been improvement, as Ford notes at its fordahead.com website

Ford’s average hourly cost per employee for wages and benefits in the U.S. reached about $75 per hour in 2007, prior to the negotiation of a new national contract. By negotiating an agreement with the UAW that year, and by adding modifications in 2009, we were able to substantially improve the competitiveness of our labor costs. Had we not reached this agreement, our average hourly wage rate would have remained simply unsustainable — and utterly uncompetitive — and Ford would not be in a position to create new jobs or bring new work into our U.S. plants.

But Ford has only itself to blame for some of those higher labor costs, as some $2/hour of its labor cost disadvantage is a result of its record-high profit-sharing checks, according to the DetNews. And, says Ford, once new “second tier” hires enter the Ford workforce, it expects wages rates to drop to parity with the transplants. In short, Ford is making the case to stay the course, working through existing contract changes to get to parity with the transplants. But given the fact that Ford is already making hefty profits, don’t expect the UAW to simply roll over. The battle lines have been drawn… but nobody knows  how the conflict will actually play out.

No, the G-Wagen isn’t gone for good… but let’s face it, we all know nothing lasts forever. Having been built with only one major technical change since 1979, the G-Wagen’s inevitable ride into the sunset is beginning with the end of production for the short-wheelbase, two-door version that we’ve never (officially) received here in the US. A complete shutdown of Graz, Austria production has been whispered about since (at least) 2005, when Mercedes nearly stopped shipping Gs to the US (according to Wikipedia, only an order from the US Marines [Devil Dog G-Wagens FTW!] stopped Mercedes from cutting America off from the G-loving). But, according to Auto Motor und Sport, the convertible and four-door versions will continue to be built… for the moment. Think of this as an opportunity for a bit of proactive mourning….

With all the excitement brewing in the Compact segment, some may be ignoring a building problem at the other end of the market, in the full-sized truck segment. Automotive News [sub] reports that GM’s truck inventory currently stands at 111 days of surprise, or a whopping 275,000 trucks sitting on lots. In April, Silverado was more than 3,000 units off the previous month’s pace, while Sierra was just over 1,00 units off. GM’s US market boss Mark Reuss tells the industry paper

We’re going to do something about it, but we haven’t made those calls yet… no one month makes a trend, so we’ve got to see where this one holds

Meanwhile, we’d be more worried about Chrysler, which saw Ram sales drop from nearly 22k units in March to 17,680 units in April. And not only is Chrysler more dependent on truck profits than GM due to its tighter balance sheet, it also has fewer high-efficiency alternatives to offer consumers who seem to be slowly responding to rising gas prices and moving towards more efficient offerings. And given that Automotive News [sub] is already noting that Chrysler has fallen behind on its “ambitious” sales goal and quoting analysts bemoaning Chrysler’s “perception” issues, it seems that Auburn Hills should be trying to get ahead of the story the way GM is.

TTAC has always taken pride in its outsider status, and we’ve taken pains to cover the industry from a safe distance in order to continually bring a fresh perspective to developments. As a result, we’re not always on the same page as trends in the industry at large, which tends to be far more given to wild optimism than the average TTAC analysis. But, based on a new study by Booz & Company [PDF], it seems that the “carpocalypse” of recent years has driven the industry to a more TTAC-esque pessimism. According to responses by executives at both OEMs and suppliers, the industry generally feels that the bailout was either a missed opportunity or it didn’t do enough to address fundamental weaknesses… and as a result, executives see challenges ahead.

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The Detroit Free Press reports, almost giddily, that GM will almost certainly replace Toyota as the world’s largest automaker by volume this year, as tsunami-related production problems will continue to plague the Japanese automaker. The graph above, by IHS Global Insight [via AutoObserver], shows that the impacts of the tsunami will continue to be felt well into next year, and that Japanese production will likely fall permanently by around 15%. Toyota’s full-year production could be cut by around 20%, possibly bumping the automaker to the third position in the global volume race, after GM and VW.

MG has been building its 1995-era MGF (now MG TF) at its Longbridge, UK plant off and on since 2007, but it’s been a purely knock-down assembly affair, with kits being shipped in from Nanjing, China. But a new British-built MG is about to go into production since the brand was bought by Nanjing Auto in 2005 (Nanjing has since merged with SAIC). Called the MG6, the new compact sedan isn’t completely built at Longbridge (UK workers build and fit the engines, as well as installing the front suspension and subframe, exhaust system and electrics, but bodyshells are shipped from China), but it was designed and engineered at SAIC Motor’s European technical center in the Midlands.

Is that British enough for you?

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We’ve already asked the cui bono question about Japan’s post-tsunami parts paralysis, and though opinions vary about precisely cui will be doing the bonoing, it’s clear that some are already doing better than others. For more clarity on the developing picture, hit the jump for TTAC’s roundup of the latest parts paralysis news. (Read More…)