Surprisingly good news out of Japan: Seemingly unimpeded by the Toyota-bashing, production of cars, trucks and buses in Japan increased 30.7 percent on year in January. Output is up for the third consecutive month, the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association said today via The Nikkei [sub]. Vehicle output rose to 753,773 vehicles in January from 576,539 vehicles in the same month a year earlier.

Even better fared Japan’s exports of cars, trucks and buses: Exports shot up 45.6 percent from a year earlier in January, the first rise in 16 months, says The Nikkei [sub] in a separate report. “Shipments to key markets such as Asia, Europe and” – gasp – “North America increased in line with recovering auto demand.” To this embedded observer, it seems as if the jobs created by this brouhaha are in Japan.

Let’s see what the next month brings, especially in the U.S. Awfully little, predicts Reuters. (Read More…)

Long time depressed car production in Japan continues to show robust signs of life, mostly caused by equally surprising domestic demand and a pick-up in exports. And there is another explanation … (Read More…)

Fiat is acknowledging a “a collapse in orders” as Italian scrappage rebates expire, and as a result, all six Italian Fiat plants will close for two weeks [via the BBC]. The move is being justified as a break from past overproduction, with Fiat spokesfolks claiming “we’re only building to demand.” Though that might help CEO Sergio Marchionne justify his $6.5m paycheck, it couldn’t come at a worse time. Fiat is putting 30,000 employees out of work for the next 14 days, just as it faces widespread protests over the closure of its Sicilian Termini Imerese plant. With the Italian government (and even the Pope) condemning Marchionne’s decision to cut the perpetually money-losing plant, this unplanned vacation will give workers plenty of time to agitate and organize further resistance. Not that Marchionne could have avoided it. Italy’s consumer subsidies for new cars were keeping demand artificially high, and the Italian government was hoping it could offer their renewal in exchange for a Fiat commitment to the Imerese plant. But as the Wall Street Journal [sub] opines, Europe’s scrappage-swollen market has to come down to earth at some point. Just as Fiat has to rid itself of some of its terminally underperforming Italian capacity, at some point. And, as usual, there’s no time like the present.

Automotive News [sub] reports that Fiat/Chrysler will become the latest in a line of third-rate global automakers to form a joint venture with the Russian firm Sollers, with plans to produce half a million units of nine Fiat and Chrysler models at a new plant in Naberezhnye Chelny. Previously Sollers had formed joint ventures with such notable automakers as Ssangyong and Isuzu. Reuters reports that Russia’s state-owned banks will provide most of the venture’s $2.9b in start-up costs. But Fiat/Chrysler has a tough road ahead of it. An analyst for BrokerCreditService describes Sollers’ challenge thusly:

The main object of this plan is to take some, I think, little market share in Vladivostok and Primorsky Kray Russian region, because over 80 or 90% of cars in this region are used cars of Japanese production.

Chrysler has yet to prove that it can handle that kind of competition in the US market, and it will be interesting to see how new Chrysler models sell against the previous-generation Sebring/Stratus, which is produced in Russia as the GAZ Volga Siber.

Fiat’s Sergio Marchionne looked like a pretty shrewd operator when he was able to snag a bailed-out Chrysler from the US government without paying a penny. Between that and the booming European sales on the back of government-funded scrappage schemes, Fiat pretty much spent 2009 proving that automakers should cater to governments almost as much as consumers. But as 2009 wound down, Fiat’s government affairs winning streak came to a halt as the Italian government started asking for a little quid for its quo, and it’s been going downhill from there. Now that Fiat wants to shut down its Sicilian Termini Imerese plant, and right-size Italian production, the love affair is officially over. “We are examining the possibility of renewing [consumer incentives],” Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi told reporters from Automotive News [sub]. “But Fiat does not seem interested in them.”

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China’s car industry has big plans. According to the China Business Journal, cited by the Nikkei [sub], China’s top 14 automakers are planning and building for a combined output capacity of 23 million vehicles in 2012. “With other carmakers included, the total figure will likely top 25 million,” says the Nikkei.

Last year, China became the world’s largest auto market, with 13.64m vehicles sold. Demand is officially projected to grow by 10-15 percent a year, reaching 20m units in 2012. “Consequently, there is the possibility of excess capacity,“ worries the Nikkei. (They are ostensibly not worried about 20m cars being sold, an idea that makes peak oilers lose precious sleep while they are wearing out their – plastic – keyboards on the message boards.)

As far as this reporter is concerned, 5m excess capacity in 2012 would fall in the „nice problem to have“ category.

One, Chinese projections are notoriously lowballed. (Read More…)

Canoe.ca reports that Hyundai are considering the option of a new production plant in Canada, provided the brand’s sales growth continues its upward momentum. “In Canada, if our volumes grow to the point we could support a plant we would consider it”. President and Chief Executive of Hyundai Canada, Steve Kelleher said. But, he warned, “for manufacturers there is a real urge to grow sales and put up plants to meet that growth, but if you do it too fast you lose the focus on what got you to where you are in the first place, and that’s quality.” Goodness, what could he possibly be referring to?

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The ongoing kerfluffle over Toyota’s recall of over 2m vehicles for a gas pedal defect which (allegedly) caused unintended acceleration has caught much of the automotive media flat-footed. How could it be, many have wondered, that the automaker most associated in the US market with the concept of quality has slipped so badly? As TTAC’s Steve Lang recently discussed, Toyota has been on a decontenting binge since the mid-to-late-1990s, putting profit above the quality obsession that had defined its operations up to that point. As a result, the current generation of decontented Toyotas and accompanying quality issues and recalls can be seen as the culmination of a long-term trend. But why did that transition take place? Though it’s easy to blame greed and mismanagement for the decline in Toyota’s quality, the decline in standards was actually a natural progression of Toyota’s constantly-evolving, efficiency-obsessed production system.

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GM and VW are the undoubted leaders in the biggest car market in the world, and despite challenges from homegrown upstarts like BYD, analysts say that the two global majors are best positioned to take advantage of their leadership in China. But now strategies they are a-changing. Recently, TTAC reported that VW seemed to be getting cold feet about expanding their capacity, but GM seem to have come to the opposite conclusion. Reuters reports that GM expects that they will need to build a new manufacturing plant to allow the growth of their Chinese division to continue. “We expect to sell more than 2 million units this year,” Kevin Wale, managing director of GM China, said. “We have enough capacity to build the cars we need to sell this year and we need to continue to look for ways of increasing our capacity. That will mean we will have to add a new plant some time in the near future.” The plant won’t be built this year because, according to Mr Wale it would be “physically impossible” to move so quickly, but with current GM China plants adding new shifts and expanding current production lines, it seems like their current facilities are just about tapped out. Maybe they could use some of their excess capacity in the United States? Er, maybe not.

Automotive News [sub] quotes CAW President Ken Lawenza as saying “supplier challenges” have shut down production of the Chrysler Group’s minivan plant in Windsor, Ontario. Chrysler confirmed that the plant would be closed until February 1, but refused to elaborate on the circumstances. According to Lawenza, “the reason is because if a supplier never lived up to their contract, then it could be legal ramifications. We let those guys hash it out legally.” The President of CAW Local 444 Rick LaPorte adds “it’s a piece for the key fob, so my understanding is that it’s a raw material issue. The good news is that it’s not an inventory adjustment problem or a lack of sales; it’s a good problem to have.” You know, relatively speaking.
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Optimism is a rare commodity in the auto industry these days, and nearly all of it comes from the so-called BRIC nations of Brazil, India, China and (to a lesser extent) Russia. India in particular is being targeted as one of the few growth opportunities for the industry’s global players. Nissan/Renault, Volkswagen, Honda, Ford and GM have all recently announced major initiatives to target growth in India’s entry-level market, and GM even gave up control of its Chinese operations in order to beef up its Indian presence. But, as the Hindu Business Line reports, India could be staring down the kind of overcapacity that is causing so many headaches for automakers in mature markets.

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Toyota’s head start on hybrid technology is easily the most significant advantage any one automaker holds over any other. It’s next closest competitor in hybrid offerings is Honda which is facing serious challenges as its Prius competitor, the Insight, is off to an incredibly weak start. To capitalize on this advantage, Toyota plans to up annual production of its hybrids to one million units by 2011. Despite reports that Toyota is refocusing on hydrogen fuel cell vehicles as a long-term option, Yoshihiko Tabei, chief analyst at Kazaka Securities believes:

For the foreseeable future, the focus of Toyota’s (low-emission car) strategy will be on hybrids, not electric or fuel-cell cars. Except for Honda, Toyota is facing little competition in hybrids and is set to put distance between itself and other automakers

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Ford’s President of the Americas, Mark Fields tells Automotive News [sub] that production of its full sized SUV’s are being ramped up as demand has unexpectedly outstripped dwindling inventories. Due to sales of the Ford Expedition rising 45 percent in December and the Lincoln Navigator jumping 60 percent, Ford see this as a good opportunity to take advantage of this new customer confidence. Fields didn’t disclose details about the production bump, but given long term trends in full-sized sales and oil prices, we’re thinking it shouldn’t be too dramatic.
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A few months back I noted that the French government was interfering in the car industry by demanding French plants stay open as a condition of their bailout of Renault. Well, things are getting even more….well….French. New York times (via Reuters) reports that French President Nicolas Sarkozy has summoned Renault and Nissan CEO, Carlos Ghosn for a cosy chat. Actually, “grilling” might be better way of putting it. The invitation has come about after reports surfaced that Renault might be producing its new Clio in Turkey, rather than France. This could be considered state bullying, but the French State is a 15% shareholder in Renault. French Industry minister, Christian Estrosi made absolutely no effort to cover this coercion.

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