According to the Detroit News, production of Hummer H3 and H3T models at its Shreveport, LA plant will stop on Monday, as the in-limbo brand watches its sales collapse. H3 and H3T models account for about a quarter of the Shreveport plant’s capacity, and Colorado and Canyon platformmates will continue to be produced. Meanwhile, the deal to sell the Hummer brand to Chinese firm Sichuan Tenzhong remains unconsummated, reportedly held up by the Chinese government. So when will Hummers go back into production? “When a sale is complete, once marketing kicks back in and there is new interest and enthusiasm, production will fire back up,” says a Hummer spokesman. In other words, never. It’s been a fun ride, Hummer. Thanks for the memories!

Speaking to MarketWatch at the Detroit Auto Show, Tesla Chairman Elon Musk apparently just revealed that the Tesla Model S sedan will be released “within two and a half years.” Which is interesting considering Musk claimed that production would start in 2011 at the Model S launch last March. But then, Tesla is still trying to decide on a factory location, apparently waffling between former aeronautical manufacturing locations in Downey and Long Beach. And apparently Tesla’s mere consideration of a brownfield site in Downey has drawn protests from a group calling themselves The Raging Grannies.

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With the world starting to gain stability economically and economists talking about “bull markets” you’d be forgiven for thinking we can start to be optimistic and why not? Ford are flying high, GM (prodded by the government) are adding third shifts and Chrysler’s sales “only” dropped 3.7% in December. Well, don’t be too sure. CNN Money reports that a survey conducted by KPMG of 200 auto and supplier executive showed that 88% of them believe there is still too much capacity in North American plants. In fact, the survey showed that the executives believe that overcapacity is a bigger problem today than a year ago and when you look at the figures, it’s a bit of a no brainer.

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Good news for Elkhart, Indiana today, as The Detroit News reports that the Norwegian EV firm Th!nk has chosen the city for its $43.5m US production facility. The plant will have a production capacity of 20k units, once production ramps up from its 2011 start. By 2013, Th!nk says it will employ 415 workers who will build the firm’s City model, a two-seater which will initially cost nearly $40k before government tax breaks. The factory will receive some $17m in state and local tax breaks and incentives. Th!nk hopes to eventually reduce the cost of the City, which has a stated range of 112 miles and a top speed of 70 mph, to about $20k.
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The WSJ reports that GM has added a third shift to its Fairfax assembly plant at the request of the US auto task force. The Kansas City plant will now build 6,300 vehicles a week working 21.6 hours a day, up from 4,500 units per week working 14.5 hours per day with two shifts. The move reportedly makes Fairfax the first US auto plant to run three shifts on a routine basis. According to the WSJ,

the auto task force that oversaw GM’s reorganization last spring was startled to learn that the industry standard for plants to be considered at 100% capacity was two shifts working about 250 days a year. In recommending that the government invest about $50 billion in GM, the task force urged the company to strive toward operating at 120% capacity by traditional standards.

Why? That’s not exactly clear. The potential downsides of the move are far easier to identify.

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At the urging of the Italian government, Fiat said today that it is willing to shift production of Pandas from Poland to the Pomigliano plant in Naples and invest “hundreds and hundreds of millions” in order to bring its Italian production to over 800k units per year. But, he warns, the Italian government must extend domestic consumer credits in order to sop up the increased capacity or face a rapid market contraction. As part of the deal, the government would allow Fiat to shut a terminally unproductive plant in Sicily, for as Sergio says, “the number of cars produced per worker [in Italy] is totally out of proportion” compared with plants in Brazil or Poland. “It doesn’t correspond with any industrial logic.” He’s right, of course, but you have to admit that it’s strange to see the man who took American taxpayers for a savage ride by snagging a bailed-out Chrysler without putting a penny down, suddenly bankrolling the oblivious nationalism of the Italian government.

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Europe’s auto capacity is staggeringly underutilized, as political pressure to protect jobs stacks overcapacity upon overcapacity. Analysts lay out the gory details at Automotive News [sub]: Global Insight says European production capacity is currently at 59 percent, while PriceWaterhouseCoopers figures excess production is 6.8 million vehicles. Assuming an average production of 300,000 units per plant, over 20 of Europe’s 100 major auto plants will have to go to bring supply back in line with demand. Though Saab’s seemingly imminent closure should take a first step towards a European coming-to-terms with its unreformed auto industry, the Opel deal is starting to look like an opportunity that GM could be too state-aid-dependent to take advantage of.

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Ford’s pointy-headed crew of sales forecasters have been compared to the original “Whiz Kids” and credited with a major role in Ford’s (relative) success in the last year. But you can’t calculate everything through statistical analysis, and it seems the models coming out of Ford’s Global Lifecycle Analytics Department failed to take irrational enthusiasm into account. Which is frankly, fairly understandable. The $37,000+ Taurus SHO starts at a full $12k more than a base model, making it a 365 hp halo more than a legitimate sales threat, and yet Ford’s forecasters seem to have underestimated demand for the turbocharged model, with at least one dealer reporting an 80 day wait on a sold order. “It’s a problem for our dealers,” Ford’s Jim Farley admits to Automotive News [sub], “we’re definitely catching up on the demand.” Mid-range SEL trim levels have also been underproduced, says Farley, along with F-150 double cabs. “If you don’t call it, you miss that opportunity and customers don’t see what they want to buy.”

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Almost exactly a month ago we asked:

Fiatsler is bringing Fiat back to the US as a one-model-brand (500) with a dedicated sales and support staff just to meet one of these government benchmarks… will they be crazy enough to build an engine in Michigan and ship them to Mexico to meet another?

The short answer: of course. Fiat gets five percent of Chrysler’s equity for building the engine in the states, but unless there are unrevealed US-market applications for an engine with 92 lb-ft of torque, they’ll all be shipped to Mexico and installed in Fiat 500s. According to Marchionne, half of the Toluca, Mexico Fiat 500 production will be sold in the US with the other half going to Brazil. For a guy who regularly bemoans the poor strategic positioning of Fiat’s factory sites, Marchionne is surprisingly willing to bend a few principles for five percent of Chrysler’s equity. Will it work? Sergio is still asking for time, telling reporters “by the end of 2011 and in early 2012, you should be able to tell how our plan is working.”

Ford will be taking a conservative approach to 2010, according to Chairman Bill Ford, who tells Automotive News [sub] that unemployment makes him most pessimistic about the year to come.

We’re not planning for a huge pickup next year. If we get one, great, we’ll ride it. We’re planning conservatively. Just as we did this year, we’ve kept our inventories low. If things start to pop for the better, we’ll adjust our production upward and go that way

And why not? Ford’s stock price has soared over the last year, since falling under $2 a year ago. This despite the fact that the Blue Oval is mortgaged to the hilt and will miss profitability for 2009. But because Ford believes that, as President of the Americas Mark Fields puts it, “our plan is working,” the bonuses are coming back for Ford’s white-collar employees.

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Zacks Investment Research reports that Ford will invest $500 million in Michigan for developing and building batteries for their hybrid and electric vehicles. In return, they have asked the Michigan government for a tax break between $85 to $120 million. Michigan haven’t confirmed whether they’ll give this tax break, which is handy because Ford have indicated that they will look elsewhere if the tax break isn’t given. This investment will create 1000 jobs. Each job will cost at least $85000? Shocking!

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Asiaone Motoring reports that Toyota are now pushing forward on their constructions of plants in the United States and China which had previously been put on hold. It should come as no surprise that part of the reasoning behind this decision is to meet growing demand in China. More importantly, Toyota needs to protect itself from the strong yen, a consideration that now apparently outweighs weakness in the US market.  The report says that Toyota is expected to invest and additional 100 billion yen (about $1.1b) to get these plants completed. Although these plants will increase capacity by 200,000 units, Toyota plan on halting production on lines in Japan and the UK, as the firm must still reduce capacity by 1 million units in order for this investment to work. Though the move is a clever one, it highlights the enormous pressure the world’s number one automaker finds itself under: overcapacity is bad enough, but when so much of its production is based in Japan, it deal with reduced production while paying for expansions in cheaper production zones. The upside? This plan could lead to US production of the Prius at the under-construction Mississippi plant sooner than expected.

In my editorial on GM’s plant to take on the Indian market in partnership with SAIC, I wrote that Maruti Suzuki’s monstrous market share indicated the possibilities for GM. Well, the Indian market leader isn’t going to just sit on that lead. In 2007, Osamu Suzuki said that his firm’s Indian passenger car market share would never drop below 50 percent, an assertion that took two years to prove untrue. The WSJ reports that although the overall Indian market will probably grow 16 percent this year, Maruti’s share of that market has fallen over the last year from 45 percent to about 40 percent (with passenger car share down from 55 percent to 48 percent).

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Having planned to idle production plants for a mere ten days over the winter break, Chrysler is responding to weak sales by extending the holiday shutdown of several plants to three weeks or more. The WSJ reports that Chrysler’s Windsor and Brampton plants (minivans, 300/Charger/Challenger) will shut down starting December 21 and will idle through January 18. The Toledo plant (Jeep Wrangler) will also idle beginning on December 21, and will resume production on January 11. Chrysler is also said to be considering extended production shutdowns at its Detroit Viper factory (which is entering final production anyway) and an unspecified Ram plant. Unless December sales numbers turn out to be humdingers, this winter vacation could possibly go on even longer, as Chrysler struggles under falling sales and a 64-day supply inventory.

The Brazilian-American Chamber of Commerce reports that Volkswagen AG has announced it plans to build (cue “Dr Evil” voice) 1 million vehicles in Brazil by 2014. To help this grand notion become a reality Volkswagen will invest €2.3 billion (about $3.5b) into the endeavour benefiting its two assembly plants in Anchieta & Taubate and its engine plant in Sao Carlos. Volkswagen aren’t far off this target; this year Volkswagen expects to manufacture 800,000 vehicles in Brazil. Brazil is also Volkswagen’s third largest market after China and Germany, respectively, so there’s plenty of demand for the Wolfsburg Warriors’ offerings, with deliveries to customers up 70% since 2005. If Volkswagen cars are suffering from alleged reliability issues, it doesn’t seem to be bothering our Brazilian friends.
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