Does it seem like we were just discussing Chrysler’s brand confusion? Somehow the situation has gotten worse. Just as Chrysler dealers are starting to get their new Ram brand signage up, Ram CEO Fred Diaz Jr had to go and confuse everyone all over again about just what Ram means.

They’re still going to be saying they drive a Dodge Ram. We’re just going to be marketing it as a Ram without ‘Dodge’ in front. Once you explain to the consumer what you’re doing and why, they get it

Or not. Whatever. Ram trucks will continue to have Dodge VINs and will carry references to Dodge “somewhere” Diaz tells Automotive News [sub]. But don’t worry. According to Diaz, the Chrysler Group is “devising a plan that will give compelling missions for each brand.” You know, just in case things are still a little confusing.

What’s that you say? Chrysler’s planning on spending $170 per projected vehicle sale on advertising next year? That could be as much as $1.4b! Well, we can’t give the Journey a prize for obvious reasons, but they do have a new Ram out this year… Truck Of The Year it is!

Initial indications of November’s sales numbers show an industry exhibiting some signs of leveling off after a solid year of steep declines. And when the rest of the industry is merely flat, Chrysler has to satisfy itself with slightly-less-dramatic-than-usual declines. Though Chrysler’s sales [full PDF release here] were “only” down 25 percent compared to November 2008, things were hardly going well a year ago. As a result, Chrysler sold an embarrassing 63,560 units total, ending the month with a 64-day supply of vehicles despite offering some of the industry’s most generous incentives. Forget the percentages, Chrysler’s niche-like volume is the killer here… and it’s relentlessly slipping away as the Pentastarred zombie crashes into oblivion.
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We noted earlier that Chrysler’s turnaround is dependent on Ram and other truck-based models to maintain the steady profit increases projected in its five-year plans. CEO Sergio Marchionne confirmed the importance of body-on-frame vehicles to Chrysler’s US lineup in a recent interview with Automotive News [sub]. “I think it will be very stupid for us to assume the same type of European style and sizing which has driven the automobile portfolio of Fiat Group will prevail in the U.S.” Marchionne tells AN’s Luca Ciferri. Marchionne says Chrysler’s US lineup of full-sized pickups, SUVs, large cars and minivans will see their fuel efficiency improve to keep up with pressures on the market, but that the US linup will not suddenly downsize or work away from its traditional strengths. Marchionne even aknowledged that the Ram brand would continue to be a crucial profit center, just as Fiat Professional-branded  commercial vehicles drive much of Fiat’s profit in Europe. But as another report in Automotive News [sub] explains, the truck market is continuing to erode underfoot. Chevrolet truck marketing executive John Schwegman explains that

in 2005, buyers who chose pickups “primarily for image” accounted for 200,000 to 250,000 annual sales. That fell to about 100,000 in 2008. This year, he says, only about 50,000 personal-use buyers will drive home full-sized pickups.

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TTAC did not file a full Chrysler Zombie Watch from the launch of Chrysler’s five year business and product plan, but two major points dominated our coverage. The first was this graph that shows 2009 as a trough year for Chrysler sales, with 2010 heralding a major and sustained turnaround in Chrysler’s fortunes beginning next year. Underlying this rosy projection is the second main point of Chrysler’s turnaround, a product/branding strategy that we summarized as “refresh and market like hell.” But refreshes take time, which is something that Chrysler simply doesn’t have. While the automotive world waits for the crucial Fiat-fettled refreshed Chryslers (due to begin arriving at the end of 2010), the “market like hell” portion of the plan is hitting America’s airwaves first, in the form of new ads aimed at reviving “consideration” of Chrysler’s damaged brands. But now that we’ve seen the opening salvos in this $1.4b war on consumer apathy, it’s becoming clear that Chrysler’s journey (no pun intended) of a thousand miles is beginning with a stumble.

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Despite already having some of the highest incentives in the game right now, Chrysler is joining GM in putting more cash on the hood to clear out year-end inventory. Automotive News [sub] reports that Chrysler will be adding $1,000 to $1,500 in incentives per vehicle, on top of October’s $3,219 per vehicle average (as calculated by Edmunds). According to the same Edmunds analysis, the average industry incentive is $2,468 per vehicle. This continued reliance on incentives contradicts a number of Sergio Marchionne’s statements at the presentation of Chrysler’s five year product and business plan, in which he argued that Chrysler could not rely on incentives to push volume. Marchionne claims to believe the incentive-based volume chasing is “insane,” but his commitment to a sustainable business plan is about to be tested. For Chrysler’s five year plan to succeed, its sales need to turn around fast, making 2009 the trough year indicated on this graph. But with no new product (and by new product, we mean refreshed product) due out until the fourth quarter of next year, such a turnaround seems impossible without huge incentives. And yet Chrysler also showed graphs projecting a direct relationship between volume and profit, meaning there is little to no wiggle room for profit-sapping incentives. Rock, hard place, I’d like you to meet Chrysler Group.