TrueCar released its May 2011 sales forecast. At this time in the calendar, these forecasts, based on real transactional data, usually come close to reality. For May 2011, TrueCar expects new light vehicle sales in the U.S. to be 1,060,392 units, down 3.7 percent from May 2010 and down 8.3 percent from April 2011(unadjusted basis for sales days). This would be a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 11.85 million new car sales, down from 13.18 million in April 2011 and only slightly up from 11.63 million in May 2010. Why the sudden reluctance? (Read More…)

Bertel’s provocative piece on SaabUnited’s complex relationship with Saab and Vladimir Antonov has drawn a predictable response from the Saab faithful, who have rushed to defend their beloved but troubled  brand as well as its mysterious Russian “savior.” The outburst of anger at TTAC, though harsh to the point of almost blaming TTAC for Saab’s sorry state, is nothing new around these parts: TTAC has long angered the die-hard fans of many auto brands by calling for (or simply covering) the demise of brands that have outlived their usefulness to the market. Even the most basic understanding of TTAC’s history explains away the now-popular (in certain corners) theory that this site has a personal vendetta for Saab. On the other hand, perhaps we’ve been too focused on day-to-day developments to properly make the case for why Saab, sadly, needs to die. Luckily the reasons for Saab’s inevitable demise are not difficult to understand…

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Though an global Accenture study [via Green Car Congress] found that up to 68% of respondents would consider a plug-in electric vehicle for their next purchase, the issue of range continues to be the great unknown. And unfortunately for all the models and predictions of future EV sales, the issue of range points to some severely irrational consumer behavior. Namely, there’s a giant disconnect (nearly ten-fold in fact) between the actual number of kilometers driven each day and the range expectations for future EV purchases. Meanwhile, 62% of respondents rejected battery swapping, the most credible current solution for range anxiety, for reasons that are not immediately clear. In short, Energy Secretary Chu had beeter be right when he says EV range will triple and costs will be reduced over the next six years… otherwise, EVs will die a quick death at the hand of consumers’ outsized range expectations.

While the political battle lines over increasing CAFE standards are being drawn in Washington, with the industry taking on both environmentalists and itself, a line of analysis that’s been around since 2009 is exacerbating the industry’s internal divisions over the impact of CAFE increases. A two-year-old University of Michigan study has been exhumed and expanded upon in a new CitiGroup report which makes a bold claim: CAFE will actually improve both sales and profits for the industry. And with Detroit taking the lead in resisting CAFE increases, one might think that the industry’s “turncoats” like Toyota and Hyundai, who have made marketing-led decisions to support CAFE increases, would be the main beneficiaries of these reports. Not so. According to this battle-line-confounding analysis, the biggest beneficiary of CAFE increases will be… Detroit. Madness you say? You may well be right…

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The rise of the Chinese auto market, which only surpassed the US to become the world’s largest in recent years, has drawn considerable attention from China-watchers and industry insiders alike. China’s rampant sales growth has paid huge dividends for firms who gambled on the Chinese market, in turn spurring more investment as every global automaker scrambles for access to China’s rapidly-developing market. As a result of several years of this gold rush mentality, everyone is now looking for China to stumble, to show the first signs of a bubble ready to burst.And over at Forbes, Handel Jones (the author of Chinamerica: The uneasy partnership that will change the world), thinks he may have found these first signs of slowdown in China’s auto production numbers.

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If you are looking for a growth market for cars, don’t look to Europe. In terms of car sales, the Old Country is going sideways with a negative bias. In April, sales of new cars in the EU was down 4.1 percent on the year. New registrations amounted to 1,089,118 units. For the first four months of 2011, registrations totaled 4,674,457 units, or 2.7 percent less than over the same period a year earlier. This according to data released by the European Auto Manufacturers Association ACEA. (Read More…)

The combined market share of GM and Ford will reach 40% of the US market by the end of 2015. Yes, you just read that correctly. That’s a full five percent more share than what they have today, or a gain of just one percent a year. Call me crazy… but recall that Farago and I called the GM bankruptcy way before most industry observers (and certainly before the BoD of Old GM) could see it coming. Long time TTAC readers will also remember my call to buy Ford’s stock in April 2009 when it was trading in the three buck range. So calm those gut-reactions for a few minutes and let’s walk through this.

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Despite being on something of a roll product-wise, Ford has just experienced its second run-in with Consumer Reports, which failed to give Ford’s new Explorer a coveted “recommended” rating. Why? CR explains its decision in Automotive News [sub] thusly

“The engine is a little noisy, handling is secure but lacks agility, and the driving position is flawed,” the magazine says.

“The optional ‘MyFord Touch’ control interface is over-complicated and distracting,” the magazine says, echoing ongoing complaints about Ford’s family of in-vehicle communications systems.

But there’s more.

“The six-speed automatic is not the smoothest out there and wants to hold on to higher gears too long. It was sometimes slow to downshift and overly aggressive engine braking slowed the Explorer going down hills unless we gave the gas pedal a prod.

“An optional Terrain Management system for the all-wheel-drive system lets you dial in various terrain types such as snow and sand, and it alters throttle, brake and torque split between front and rear wheels accordingly.”

Finally, the latest Explorer is too new to be recommended, the magazine says.

But here’s the kicker: as our “Crossover Report” proves, the Explorer killed the competition last month, outselling every other midsized and large CUV on the market. So, is CR right to rate products like Toyota Highlander Hybrid, Ford Flex, Acura MDX, Volkswagen Touareg, Hyundai Veracruz, Subaru Tribeca, Kia Sorento and Mazda CX-9 higher than Explorer? Or is this yet another example of CR’s well-disguised but often-noted bias against American cars? Is CR right about the Explorer, or is the market?

Crossovers, almost by definition, are hell to segment. This month we’ve taken commenter NulloModo‘s suggestion for separating mid- and large CUVs, so please direct all praise and criticism of this month’s segmentation to him. And then, just to piss everyone off (and save time for other, more interesting work) we’ve lumped all the luxury CUVs of every category into one giant, barely-legible chart. Is it perfect? No. But then, neither are crossovers. And like crossovers these charts will get the job done, even if they don’t wow anyone in the process.

BMW’s Dreier continues to be the dominant force in the smaller “mid-luxury” segment, while archrival Mercedes controls the large luxury segment (chart after the jump) with its E Class. But the bigger story? Lexus’s incredible vanishing act, with both the ES and IS drooping under the German onslaught. Cadillac’s CTS beat the Audi A4 sedan, but add the A5 in (as the CTS, 3-Series and G37 all include coupes) and the Caddy drops to fourth place for the month. Ultimately, though, the Mercedes, Audi, Cadillac and Infiniti may switch places month-by-month, but all four are clearly stuck vying for the role of best 3-Series alternative. Meanwhile, the large luxury sedan market would thrill for even that level of competition…

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Mazda may be free from its less-than-entirely-successful relationship with Ford, but when it comes to US production, Mazda is still very much stuck in its Ford-dependent past. B-Series pickup production has ended in St Paul, but Tribute is still built alongside Escape in Kansas City (for the moment), and the majority of Mazda’s US production is still accounted for by Mazda6, which is also built alongside Fords at the shared Flat Rock “Auto Alliance” plant. But AutoWeek‘s Hans Greiml reports that the Nikkan Kogyo newspaper believes Mazda could be looking to pull out from Flat Rock.

the Mazda6 is a big reason Mazda can’t turn a regional operating profit in North America–one of its most important markets.

The company planned to produce 100,000 Mazda6 units annually at the Flat Rock, Mich., plant, when the redesigned sedan was launched there in mid-2008. Then the financial crisis hit.

Last year the plant built only 45,168 units.

Mazda is cagey about what options it is mulling. If it quits producing the Mazda6, it could bring in another vehicle–or Mazda could quit the plant completely. Speculation abounds in Japan that Mazda is eyeing a new, lower cost North American production base in Mexico.

Our patent pending GM China sales oracle saw it coming: GM China was down in April, therefore, the whole Chinese market had to be down in April. And so it was – by a hair: April new vehicle sales in China were down 0.25 percent, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced at a press conference on Tuesday afternoon. This is the first decline in 27 months. (Read More…)

The king is dead! After years of dominating the subcompact charts, the Nissan Versa was toppled from its top spot by not one but three upstart nameplates. Kia’s Soul, the Versa’s most consistent competition since it launched, has finally arrived as a legitimate slow-wave hit, topping 10k units and running away with the segment even as an updated model was announced at the NY Auto Show. Fiesta finally came into its own as well, racking up a thoroughly legit 9,147 sales over the month, and the lagging Fit staged something of a comeback with sales rising to 8,116 units. Versa’s fourth place finish was enough to handily beat Chevy’s aged Aveo, which itself nearly slipped below the equally aged Hyundai Accent for the month. Meanwhile, Yaris held off a solid-ish performance by Mazda2 and creamed its Scion xD cousin. With the Versa’s fall from grace (and the Cube’s non-impact) we have what may be an interesting peek at what the segment could look like when Nissan replaces its roomy Versa with its underwhelming Versa (Sunny) sedan. Of course, with new Soul, Aveo (Sonic), Accent and Rio models coming soon, there’s no telling where this segment could end up by the end of this year.

The UK new car market fell by 7.4 percent to 137,746 units. This was the 10th successive monthly decline in volumes and the UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) that keeps track of those things thinks its just cushty. (Read More…)

I’ve expanded most of our segments slightly this month to include some vehicles that either sell poorly enough to usually drop off our charts, or don’t quite fit into any one segment. For example, the Juke’s widened-Versa platform means it should probably be in a class lower than this one, but it’s selling well enough to earn a spot here, and doesn’t have enough direct competition for a “Crossunder” chart anyway. In any case, the Compact CUV segment is turning into something of a two-car battle between the CR-V and Escape after the close battles of the 2009-2010 period. And with a redesigned CR-V set to debut this year, Honda should pull away here… but that new Cute Ute has been delayed and supply interruptions are coming down the line, all thanks to the Japanese tsunami situation. Which means Ford’s old soldier, the Escape, will continue its unlikely prominence in a segment packed with newer, fancier options. But with a very different next-gen Escape coming down the line, Ford is taking a step into the unknown rather than building on the Escape’s SUV-lite positioning. So even though this chart doesn’t necessarily reflect it, this segment is actually fairly wide open. Game on!