Last year in October, I predicted that China would overtake the U.S. in car sales in 2009. The comments could not haven been more uncomplimentary. By the end of 2009, China did beat the U.S. 13.6 to 10.4.

A while ago, I cautiously predicted that this year, China would break the U.S. all time record from the year 2000. The comments were far less incredulous this time around, the discussion instead turned into the tired fascist elephants against communist donkeys discourse. Now it is official what the attentive TTAC reader has known all along: China will break the current record of 17.4 million units from 2000 in the U.S. (Read More…)

Passenger car sales in China jumped 29.3 in November as people rushed to lock in incentives set to expire at the end of the year. Demand will most likely be even stronger in December. In November, the end of the incentives was just a rumor. A few days ago, the end of government handouts became official, and  dealers already ran out of cars. (Read More…)

Earlier this year we took a look at our rolling 12-month sales totals chart, and found that cars had pulled away from “light trucks” (a category that includes trucks, SUVs, minivans and crossovers), prompting us to proclaim The Great American Downsizing. Well, it turns out we opined too soon. Trucks closed out the Summer strong and went on a tear during the Autumn months, to pull back to parity with their car cousins. And because light trucks are trending upwards faster than cars, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them finish the year as the better-selling segment. Of course, these numbers aren’t being driven strictly by the old-school utes of yore, although old standbys like the full-sized pickups, the Yukon XL and Ford Expedition are all up by healthy margins. Between old-school utes and the large crossovers that are replacing them, the cars just don’t stand a chance. Hit the jump for car-versus-light truck sales by manufacturer.

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Domestic car sales in India rose 21 percent from a year earlier in November. India is no China yet. But as its per capita GDP has crossed the magical $1000, car sales are waking up with a vengeance. This is one rule I learned in this business, and it never fails. China has more than three times the per capita GDP of India, and you know what kind of a run that caused. (Read More…)

You-know-what-eating grins in Munich: BMW outsold rivals Audi and Mercedes-Benz around the world last month on strong sales of the new 5er and the new X1 SUV. (Read More…)

Manheim Consulting’s Used Vehicle Value Index shows that used cars have more than recovered from their all-time low of just two years ago, and have hit their strongest levels since 1995. This isn’t wildly surprising, given that weak new car sales over the last two years have boosted demand for less expensive used options. What’s intriguing about the strong growth is that a recovering new-car market doesn’t seem to have dented pre-owned values much in the short term. Manheim’s report notes:

Because the new and used vehicle markets are both monthly payment driven, the important ratio is not transaction prices, but loan-to-value ratios, credit-adjusted APRs, loan maturities, and the resulting monthly payment. Given that new vehicle incentive activity has remained restrained and the model-year changeover was smooth, the monthly payment ratio between the two markets is not as far out-of-line as it has been at some points in the past.

Additionally, although there is waterfall effect that means new vehicle pricing eventually impacts all segments of the used vehicle market, the most effective transmission is through late-model used vehicles, especially those that represent a real substitute to a new vehicle purchase. With the reduction in off-rental units, late-model trade-ins, and early cycle repossessions, nearly-new used vehicles are in short supply. The average mileage on vehicles sold at auction has risen in every market segment over the past two years. And, with significant redesigns and new options, manufacturers have been able to make many models less susceptible to substitution pressure from the nearly-new market.

The significance of this trend: after two years of credit crunch-weakened sales, fleet buyers binged like crazy during 2010, largely fueling the new-car sales turnaround, especially in the early part of the year.  Leasing is back in a big way as well: having fallen to just 9 percent of new car transactions two years ago, they’re back up to 25 percent. As these purchases (not to mention subprime repossessions) work their way back onto the used market, the supply of lower-mileage used cars could well increase, depressing the value of the entire used-car market.

Though the US auto market is up 11 percent this year, Honda’s sales are up only 3.6 percent compared to last year’s weak performance. That means the Motor Company isn’t even keeping up with the growth rates of such maligned brands as Lincoln (+7.4%), Chrysler (+16%) and Mazda (+9.8%). But Team Honda isn’t sweating the details. After all, the Civic and CR-V are nearing the end of their model cycles, while the Accord is a year and a half from its replacement. And, as Honda USA’s Executive VP John Mendel tells Automotive News [sub], at Honda

The debate over Detroit’s bailout was dominated by a narrative that portrayed the automakers as victims of Wall Street excess, and placed blame for their collapse on the frozen credit market. And though the credit crunch certainly hurt GM and Chrysler as well as their customers, Detroit was a victim of the credit crunch in the same way an addict is a victim of his dealer. By leveraging easy credit to fuel the SUV boom which covered for unprofitability in passenger cars (or didn’t, as the case may be), Detroit binged on zero-percent financing as the market road confidently to 16m annual sales. And then, finally, the music stopped and the Domestics crumpled, victims of their own greed, but with a convenient scapegoat in the hated Wall Street bankers. But if the bailout was intended to not only get GM and Chrysler back on their feet but also to prevent future collapses, there’s some troubling news in the offing: subprime auto lending is starting to roar back, and if it goes unchecked, it could reach pre-recession levels in short order…

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China’s car dealers will be mobbed tomorrow, and the run on the lots will last until the end of the year. Shanghai Daily [sub] reports that it is now – semi – official that the Chinese government “will cancel the preferential purchase tax for vehicles with engines under 1.6 liters on January 1 next year.” Shanghai Daily has it from Xiaoxiang Daily News, which heard it from an unidentified official with the National Development and Reform Commission. But it will be enough to incite a stampede to lock in the savings while they last. (Read More…)

In the beginning of the new millennium, U.S. new auto sales topped 17 million a few times as Americans used the assumed equity in their houses to stuff their three car garages with more cars than there were driver’s licenses in the nation.  In 2000, a total of 17,349,700 new cars changed hands. A year later, 17,121,900 units.  It deteriorated from there. In 2007, 16,089,300 cars were sold.  And we know what happened thereafter.

If we buy and sell 11.5 million new cars this year, it will be called a recovery.  For 2011, J.D.Power sees maybe 12.8 million, if it all works out. They had seen a bit more before, but grew cautious lately.  Now, a prophet appeared that predicts the miracle everybody prays for, a return to former (albeit fleeting) glory: (Read More…)

Tyler Durden over at ZeroHedge reports on the untold story of GM’s increasing delivery numbers: they’re sitting on lots.

Hidden deep in today’s disappointing GM November sales release is a number that all GM longs may want to quickly forget, or else pay serious attention to. But first, earlier today, GM reported slightly disappointing sales numbers: the newly IPOed company sold 168,739 cars in November, a 11.4% increase to November 2009, which came in below expectations of a 13% rise. That’s mostly noise. What isn’t, however, is the linear rise in GM’s auto inventory safely stashed away at dealers, i.e., unsold….

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Bloomberg reports that the world’s cheapest car, the Tata Nano has seen its sales drop from the point where it had to hold a lottery to choose buyers for its first 100k units to last month’s all-time low of only 509 units sold. Tata has raised the price twice this year, bumping the MSRP by 4 percent in July and then adding another $200 to the price in October. This, in addition to the Nano’s fire-related issues and the inability of Indian consumers to secure financing for the microcar is being blamed for the sales drop. Says Mahantesh Sabarad, an analyst with Fortune Equity Brokers (India) Ltd:

The product has had a difficult time in terms of its perception ever since those fire incidents came in. A lot of people bought the car in the initial sales period for its novelty factor and didn’t go for loans

Tata’s response: hire more sales staff and work with banks to secure loans for Nano customers. After all, the Indian automaker has 250k annual production capacity assigned to the Nano, so sales had better start picking up soon.

Did you hear that sound? That was a sigh of relief coming from Germany. Germans are buying cars again. In November, they bought more cars than in October 2010, and even more than in November 2008. What’s more, November 2010 is only 6.2 percent below the Abwrackprämien-exaggerated  November of the prior year. The usually very conservative Kraftfahrtbundesamt that released the official registration data even dares to prognosticate that “year and sales are expected to be 2.9 million cars.” Translation: (Read More…)

GM China, our recently no longer so reliable oracle for the Chinese market, raised its November sales by 11 percent, compared to an absolutely batty November 2009. 11 percent are not the same growth as the 109.5 percent GM China had recorded in last year’s November, but how much battier do you expect them to get? The more meaningful number is that for the first 11 months of 2010:  From January through November, GM’s China sales jumped 33 percent to a mind-blowing 2.17 million units. GM China will most likely close out the year in the 2.35 to 2.4m area – this is higher than the total sales of some of Europe’s larger countries, and definitely a whole lot more than GM sells back  home. Better get used to it. (Read More…)

This, according to TrueCar.com, is what automakers spent on incentives last month. Though Chrysler and GM have cut compared to November of last year, their incentive spending is on the march compared to last month, and they still vie for industry “leadership” in these profit-sapping spiffs. But that’s just TrueCar’s perspective…

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