Edmund’ Bill Visnic takes on the latest Harbour report, which finds North American auto plants running at an average of 58 percent capacity (even Europe, the global whipping boy for intractable auto overcapacity operates at an average 81 percent). Despite the recent downsizings across North America, the Harbour Report still estimates that 3.5m units of annual overcapacity remains in the US and Canadian auto manufacturing footprint, equivalent to 14 unneeded assembly plants. A rise in sales levels to the previous 15-16m mark could help the situation according to the report, but increased plant flexibility will be the factor that automakers can actually control. Even so, if 15-16m annual units don’t come soon, North America could be looking at more plant closures and job losses.

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If you think Toyota has problems, you sure can’t see them on their monthly report.  Toyota just released sales and production numbers for July,  and they look beauteous: (Read More…)

A press release, issued last night by Edmunds, had a devastating effect on Toyota. As the Tokyo bourse opened, the TMC share sunk to a fresh year-to-date low of 2,890 yen. In the afternoon session, it recovered a bit, but not much, to close at 2,941 yen. Ooops. In the beginning of the year, the ToMoCo share traded above 4000. What were the horrible news? (Read More…)

Edmunds is tracking an $1,800 average increase in the price of used cars, as new-car sales have faltered with the shaky economy. But the increase in prices isn’t solely due to Americans tightening their belts and buying used instead of new. The biggest price increases by nameplate appear to be for large SUVs and vans like the Cadillac Escalade, Chevy Suburban, Dodge Grand Caravan, BMW X5 and Acura MDX. Edmunds senior analyst Joe Spina explains

So many economic factors affect automobile sales and prices. It’s believed that the program delayed purchases prior to the program and also pulled sales forward while in place. The program also eliminated inventory of older vehicles that were traded and then scrapped… Now, those who need trucks and large SUVs are buying them and in many cases are turning to used vehicles as a way to save money. Prices are high because this demand comes at a time when inventory is low as a result of the current shortage of lease returns and trade-ins for vehicles of this type.

Edmunds’ “Large SUV” segment shows prices up by nearly $7k per vehicle (over July 2009), compared to increases of less than $500 per vehicle for midsize and compact cars over the same period. Gas prices, meanwhile, are nearly unchanged from July of last year. Clearly something is affecting the price of used SUVs… if it’s not Cash-For-Clunkers, what is it?

Every month, at around the 15^th, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), sends out car sales numbers for the preceding month for all of Europe. It’s a regular TTAC fare. This month, you will have to do without. (Read More…)

The BRIC countries, Brazil, Russia, India, and China were long seen as the saviors of the world, especially when it comes to cars:  large population, very few cars per head, a strong growth. Then 2008 came around, the oil prices dropped, and Russia nearly imploded. Russia was taken off the BRIC list, leaving a BIC behind. If you take a hard look at it, it’s a C, with a BI as future growth market. Now suddenly, the BRIC is back. (Read More…)

Mercedes, BMW and Volkswagen/Audi are all moving inexorably towards a major downmarket expansion, as they develop a new generation of compact and subcompact cars based on front-wheel-drive architectures. Though Volkswagen has played in this space for some time, the move is a major cultural shift for BMW and Mercedes, which are typically associated with rear-drive luxury cars, particularly in the US market. But the truth is that the German luxury brands have always sold products in the German and other European markets that don’t match their premium overseas brand images (see, among other examples, the ubiquity of Mercedes taxis in Germany). But the strange thing about this next push towards smaller cheaper cars is that it’s not not aimed at Germany at all.

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Think GM has a tough sell for its coming IPO? Chinese battery/automaker BYD is preparing its own $420m stock offering, likely to be floated on the Shenzhen A-Shares exchange, in the midst of a Chinese-market downturn, and an ongoing lawsuit with electronics manufacturing giant Foxconn. And all this comes after a long run of good news for the Hong Kong-listed BYD, which had been running strong on optimism generated by Warren Buffet’s major investment in the firm nearly two years ago. So, is BYD in real trouble of having its overvalued stock burst, or is the company strong enough to weather the storm that’s swirling around it?
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We’re hardly shocked by the idea that Chrysler won’t turn profit this year. After all, Auburn Hills has barely made its minimum monthly sales volumes (at best, and with rampant incentives and fleet mix) this year, and lost $50m+ in “industrial inefficiencies” on the Jeep Grand Cherokee launch alone [Q2 results analysis here]. With plans to close out the year with a non-stop barrage of product launches and attendant media spending, it would take a minor miracle for Chrysler to break even. But we’ve essentially known this all for some time… what’s truly shocking is that Chrysler’s CEO Sergio Marchionne actually admitted to the media that Chrysler won’t turn a profit.

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Did we mention that Hyundai is doing well in the U.S.? Sales up 21 percent for the year. Hyundai cars sold in the U.S. average about 30 miles per gallon, the best fuel efficiency in the industry. Jack Baruth loves his 2005 Hyundai Accent so much that major portions had to be redacted such as not to conflict with indecency laws. Can Hyundai do much better than that? They think they can. How? No idea. (Read More…)

The Japanese auto industry is staring at the calendar like a rabbit at the snake. October 1, the rabbit will be dinner. October 1,  government subsidies for purchases of “environmentally friendly vehicles” (read pretty much any new vehicle that passes Japanese rules) will be no more. According to popular wisdom, come October, the Japanese new car market that had enjoyed double digits growth rates, will go poof and implode.

So what to do in a country where with the exception of flu masks, the Top 10 list of popular products ”was dominated by low-priced retail merchandise and eco-friendly products as consumers pinched pennies and took advantage of government stimulus subsidies” as Reuters put it? Simple: Local subsidies. (Read More…)

Some of the world’s biggest automakers are relying on continued strong growth in the Chinese market in the face of sluggish US and European sales, but those plans are facing a challenge as Chinese sales have slowed this summer. Total vehicle sales grew 14.4 percent over July 2009 levels last month (sales grew 70 percent year-over-year in July 2009), the lowest rate of growth the Chinese car market has seen since March of last year. China’s government is doing its part, instituting a $443 subsidy for cars with 1.6 liters displacement or less in the beginning of July. But that doesn’t seem to be helping much, as the percentage of cars with 1.6 liter engines or smaller actually declined last month. What’s a growth-addicted automaker to do (besides slash prices)? The same thing they do in every other market: extend credit in hopes of boosting sales and upselling customers on more expensive cars.

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1. VW Jetta
2. VW Santana
3. VW Lavida
4. Buick Excelle
5. Honda Accord 
6. Hyundai Elantra Yuedong
7. BYD F3
8. Toyota Camry 
9. VW Bora 
10. Toyota Corolla

Wrangler went on a summer tear last month, more than doubling its July 2009 number, and leading SUVs to a strong rally. The segment’s top 18 nameplates all improved their year-over-year numbers last month, as gas prices look to hold steady through the summer (only the Suzuki Grand Vitara lost ground). SUVs should be way up again (year-on-year) this month as well, as Cash For Clunkers limited SUV sales in August 2009. Strong sales in this segment could continue into the fall on the strength of new launches like the Jeep Grand Cherokee, and Ford Explorer. On the other hand, with the Explorer moving to a Crossover platform and lines between SUVs and CUVs generally blurring, it’s becoming increasingly important to compare mid/large CUVs against this SUV segment. Based on that comparison, it’s easy to see that the mass market tends to pick road-oriented people-haulers rather than offroad-oriented rock crawlers. SUVs may be booming this summer, but in the big picture they’re melting away into the ever-expanding Crossover category. Hit the jump for a bonus graph of Luxury-brand SUV/CUV sales in July.

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