“Susan is more than capable of doing the job,” said Mark LaNeve, a mentor of Ms. Docherty’s who left GM in October and is now CMO at Allstate. The position “is a very big job and it’s a lot easier when the market is good than when the market is bad.”

From AdAge‘s paean to GM Sales and Marketing Diva Susan Docherty. Of course, what AdAge fails to mention is that LaNeve was ousted after overseeing years of declining sales, a detail that casts his judgment on the topic severely into question. No worries though. AdAge enthuses that Docherty is

described by insiders and former co-workers as a smart, hard-charging and pragmatic leader who will push responsibility down the food chain and vigorously defend ad managers who work for her — while being a champion of creative and holding them accountable for their decisions.

Uh huh. Too bad the primary evidence for this is the fact that Docherty “vigorously defended” the Buick ad seen above from none other than GM’s Bob Lutz. A former colleague of Docherty’s describes that bold stand as “good for the creative side,” and GM CEO Ed Whitacre must agree, seeing as he recently stripped Bob Lutz of his marketing title and gave it to Docherty. When MaxBob sounds like the only sane person in the building and ousted deadwood execs are endorsing their replacements, you know it’s time to get scared.

GM’s sales fell by only two percent in November, showing that, unlike Chrysler, its sales are fairly well tied to the overall health of the market. All four of GM’s “core brands” posted month-on-month increases, with Buick up 14.8 percent, Cadillac up 10.3 percent, Chevrolet up 4.5 percent and GMC up 5.4 percent. Non-core brands including Hummer, Pontiac, Saab and Saturn combined for a 47.9 percent decline, to 11,755 units. Cars fell by 1.3 percent, while Trucks were down by 2.8 percent, leaving GM with total deliveries of 151,427 units.

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The Hyundai sales juggernaut rolled on in November, posting the highest month-on-month gain of any brand with a 46 percent increase [release here]. Its sister brand Kia wasn’t far behind with a 21 percent sales gain over November 2008 [release here]. Year-to-date, the two brands have combined for 680,282 units, a mere 16,417 fewer than Nissan’s 2009 numbers.

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Initial indications of November’s sales numbers show an industry exhibiting some signs of leveling off after a solid year of steep declines. And when the rest of the industry is merely flat, Chrysler has to satisfy itself with slightly-less-dramatic-than-usual declines. Though Chrysler’s sales [full PDF release here] were “only” down 25 percent compared to November 2008, things were hardly going well a year ago. As a result, Chrysler sold an embarrassing 63,560 units total, ending the month with a 64-day supply of vehicles despite offering some of the industry’s most generous incentives. Forget the percentages, Chrysler’s niche-like volume is the killer here… and it’s relentlessly slipping away as the Pentastarred zombie crashes into oblivion.
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We noted earlier that Chrysler’s turnaround is dependent on Ram and other truck-based models to maintain the steady profit increases projected in its five-year plans. CEO Sergio Marchionne confirmed the importance of body-on-frame vehicles to Chrysler’s US lineup in a recent interview with Automotive News [sub]. “I think it will be very stupid for us to assume the same type of European style and sizing which has driven the automobile portfolio of Fiat Group will prevail in the U.S.” Marchionne tells AN’s Luca Ciferri. Marchionne says Chrysler’s US lineup of full-sized pickups, SUVs, large cars and minivans will see their fuel efficiency improve to keep up with pressures on the market, but that the US linup will not suddenly downsize or work away from its traditional strengths. Marchionne even aknowledged that the Ram brand would continue to be a crucial profit center, just as Fiat Professional-branded  commercial vehicles drive much of Fiat’s profit in Europe. But as another report in Automotive News [sub] explains, the truck market is continuing to erode underfoot. Chevrolet truck marketing executive John Schwegman explains that

in 2005, buyers who chose pickups “primarily for image” accounted for 200,000 to 250,000 annual sales. That fell to about 100,000 in 2008. This year, he says, only about 50,000 personal-use buyers will drive home full-sized pickups.

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Jim Lentz, president of Toyota Motor Sales USA, sure seems to think so. “I think long-term, Prius as a nameplate could even outsell Camry as a nameplate, into this next decade,” he tells Wards Auto. When asked if the Prius’s success would trade off with the Camry, he replied in the negative, saying “I think Prius will become just that much stronger.” But it’s been a long time since a Prius-sized vehicle, let alone a hatchback, has been the best-selling car in the US. And perhaps Lentz was merely making the case for a full line of Prius-branded vehicles, an idea he says has not been approved, but remains his “dream.” Prius will need something to push it past its larger sibling. Both models set their all-time annual sales records in 2007, when the Camry sold 473,108 units, while Prius sold only 181,221 units.

Ford analyst George Pipas reckons the recession is over; the U.S. economy is on its way to recovery. New car sales will, uh, stay the same. “I think that we won’t fall backward from October. How much November might advance from the October level it is too early to say . . . The fourth quarter will be stronger from an auto sales standpoint than a pre-clunkers level.” Translation: the U.S. new car market is bumping along at the bottom. Lest we forget, Pipas’ “pre-clunkers level” promised land was already significantly down from pre-crash volumes. Anyway, Pipas admits that Ford 2010 sales gains will be “modest” thanks to . . . wait for it . . . the perception gap. “[Unemployment] is a drag on consumer psychology. The recession may be over and the recovery may have begun, but for many, many consumers it may not feel like it’s over even 12 months from now.” The Detroit News reports that Pipas also predicts $4 a gallon gas by next summer, cementing the consumer shift towards smaller vehicles. What’s more, “Consumers in the future will be more careful about living within their means.” And if not, even better.

US sales of the not very Smart car have fallen off a cliff. The Financial Times reports that “Smart sold only 661 of its fortwo model in the US last month, more than two-thirds below October 2008 and the lowest for any month since the car made its debut in the US early last year.” Other analysts are blaming low fuel costs and the foolishness of US consumers who just don’t get the appeal of microcars. Not me, I blame the fact that the Smart car is an all around underwhelming vehicle which gives up too much capability in return for mediocre fuel economy. Note that the Smart brand is a failure in Europe as well. “Daimler’s decision to export Smart to the US was a critical part of its rescue plan for the brand. For all its pizzazz, the little car has been a financial millstone. Daimler came close to shutting down the brand in 2006, but opted instead for a €1bn ($1.5bn) restructuring aimed at making the business profitable by the end of 2007.” How anyone (let alone Roger Penske) thought a failed European microcar would be saved by exports to the US is beyond me. Smart’s new “Value Days” 1.9% financing promotion isn’t going to get the job done. Not even a Toyota-esque Saved By Zero campaign would do the trick.

Prepare yourself for an increasing number of „good news“ along the following lines:

„October U.S. auto sales should be down about 6 percent from a year ago, marking the first single-digit monthly decline since May 2008, industry forecasting firm J.D. Power and Associates said on Friday.” Glad tidings, brought to you by Reuters.

Times must be really bad when single digit declines are feted as an improvement.

In reality, things stay as bad as they have been all year. In September 2008, the bottom fell out of the light vehicle market. From now on out, monthly sales will be compared to hell.

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Never has the term “Red China” been more appropriate than in the last month. The U.S. is staring into China’s taillights. In January, the unthinkable happened. China dethroned the United States as the world’s largest car market. Not for the year. For one month only—so far. Even the biggest optimists (or pessimists, depending how you look at it) didn’t expect (fear) that China would outsell the U.S. before 2015.

The story unraveled during GM’s monthly sales call on Monday. Michael DiGiovanni, GM’s executive director of global market and industry analysis, dropped the remark that an estimated 790,000 vehicles were sold in China in January. Total U.S. sales in January were about 668,000, DiGiovanni estimated. Automotive News [sub] thinks Di Giovanni is an optimist. According to their tally, 656,881 vehicles were sold in January. DiGiovanni’s Chinese number was even news to China, where official counts are not yet available.

“This is the first time in history that China has passed the U.S. in monthly sales,” DiGiovanni said. “We are estimating that China is going to come in at 10.7 million seasonally adjusted annual rate in January. The U.S. industry, we estimate at about 9.8 million SAAR.”

What happened?
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People who did buy cars last month were clearly shopping for value, and Hyundai/Kia rode its rep to sales increases in a month of market contraction. Hyundai was the biggest winner in the US market last month, with overall sales rising 14 percent, to a sales total of 24,512 units. Hyundai’s press release highlights strengths in the firm’s eastern sales district (reportedly up 20 percent over January 2008), and positive reactions to its Assurance program. On the product front, Sonata sales lead the way, up 85 percent in a month when Accord/Camry/Malibu competitors dropped 30 percent or more. And with BMW selling only 23 7-series in January, Hyundai’s Genesis was a recession-level hit with 1,056 sales. Santa Fe was up 35 percent, and at 5,024 units sold it was Hyundai’s second best-selling nameplate. Kia sales were up 3.5 percent, with Rio (+60 percent), Optima (+75 percent) and Rondo (+90 percent) making up for decreases elsewhere.

Audi’s quest to become America’s upmarket alpha has hit the wall. It might be the same wall Mercedes, BMW, Lexus, Cadillac et al. have struck, but it’s b-b-b-b-b-bad. You know sales suck when Audi PR doesn’t mention the actual percentage drop and headlines A5 and, worse (better?), R8 sales. “The Audi A5 posted a 76.3% increase over last January with 603 units sold in January 2009. The Audi R8 broke its January sales record with over 107 units sold, an increase of 75.4% over January’s sales a year ago.” Woo-hoo! Meanwhile, A4 sales evaporated, down 29.4 percent. The high profit A8 is DOA: sales off 65.1 percent. Sales of the TT roadster (-51.8%) and Q7 SUV (-44.7%) indicate two other dead models not selling.

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Honda reported in with their sad sales numbers with unadjusted monthly sales down 27.9 percent. Fit sales were steady, up 5.9 percent. Accord and Civic took drubbings of minus 31 and minus 32 percent respectively, with the Civic Hybrid down 62 percent. Light truck sales were down 27 percent with the Odyssey minivan trailing an unusually heavy 38 percent hit. (The number one selling minivan nameplate just took a back seat to the rebate-stuffed Toyota Sienna.) Over on the Acura side, TSX buyers ignored TTAC reviews and sent sales up 16 percent, which comes out to a little over 300 cars. The more expensive numb-feeling, shovel-nosed sedan, the TL, was down 40 percent. The Acura CUVs got similarly neglected, down 46 percent. Needless to say, Honda’s management team is on the case. Well, someone’s case.

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The fact that BMW’s sales are down compared to January of last year should come as no surprise. These aren’t just cars, they’re luxury goods. What’s significant is the breakdown of model sales. The 3-Series and X5 sold 5471 units combined—44% of BMW’s entire sales for the month of January. Add in the 2596 units of 5-Series sold and between those three models (3, 5, X5) you have twice as many cars as the rest of BMW’s lineup combined. To wit: the 1-Series sold 716, the BMW Z4 roadster and coupe sold 45 units (down from 363 last January), the putrid X6 managed only 266 sales and the spine-crunching X3 registered 394 sales. And then there are the 6-Series (304 sold) and the 7-Series at a whopping 23 units. The explanation is that the next-generation 7-Series hits BMW dealers in a few months; same for the next-gen Z4. It’s not all bad news for BMW though—the M sub-brand had a record year in 2008, with its sales rising 50% over 2007. Dealers report that the boost in sales came from offering to throw in a free tub of hair gel with each sale.