Domestic sales of regular new cars, trucks and buses increased 40.9 percent in June, while sales of mini vehicles rose 48.4 percent on the year. Overall, Japan’s new motorvehicle market rose 43.6 percent on 505,342 units sold. The data compare with a post-tsunami June 2011. (Read More…)
| Rank | Analyst | GM | Ford | Chrysler | SAAR | SAAR Diff | OEM Diff | Overall |
| 1 | John Sousanis (Ward’s) | 12.0% | 8.0% | 18.0% | 14.0 | 0.6% | 6.1% | 6.7% |
| 2 | Jessica Caldwell (Edmunds.com) | 8.7% | 4.4% | 19.0% | 13.9 | 1.3% | 10.3% | 11.6% |
| 3 | Brian Johnson (Barclays) | 6.4% | 7.1% | 18.0% | 13.8 | 2.0% | 10.9% | 12.9% |
| 4 | Alec Gutierrez (Kelley Blue Book) | 7.3% | 1.4% | 20.0% | 13.9 | 1.3% | 13.7% | 15.0% |
| 5 | Emmanuel Rosner (CLSA) | 9.1% | 2.9% | 17.0% | 13.8 | 2.0% | 13.4% | 15.4% |
| 6 | Peter Nesvold (Jefferies) | 5.2% | 4.4% | 19.0% | 13.8 | 2.0% | 13.8% | 15.8% |
| 7 | Rod Lache (Deutsche Bank) | 7.0% | 1.4% | 19.0% | 13.8 | 2.0% | 15.0% | 17.0% |
| 8 | Patrick Archambault (Goldman) | 6.2% | 2.0% | 17.0% | 13.8 | 2.0% | 17.2% | 19.2% |
| 9 | Chris Ceraso (Credit Suisse) | 8.2% | 2.4% | 14.0% | 13.7 | 2.7% | 17.8% | 20.5% |
| 10 | Jesse Toprak (TrueCar.com) | 6.0% | 0.3% | 16.0% | 13.6 | 3.4% | 20.1% | 23.5% |
| 11 | Joseph Spak (RBC) | 7.7% | 5.9% | NA | 13.9 | 1.3% | 108.5% | 109.8% |
| 12 | Adam Jonas (Morgan Stanley) | NA | NA | NA | 14.0 | 0.6% | 300.0% | 300.6% |
| 13 | Alan Baum (Baum & Associates) | NA | NA | NA | 14.0 | 0.6% | 300.0% | 300.6% |
| 14 | Jeff Schuster (LMC Automotive) | NA | NA | NA | 13.9 | 1.3% | 300.0% | 301.3% |
| 15 | Christopher Hopson (IHS) | NA | NA | NA | 13.8 | 2.0% | 300.0% | 302.0% |
| Average | 7.6% | 3.7% | 18.0% | 13.8 | ||||
| Actual | 15.0% | 7.1% | 20.3% | 14.1 |
Analysts polled by Bloomberg predicted June light vehicle sales to come in much lower. All analysts except one: John Sousanis of Ward’s predicted that this will be a good month. He nearly nailed the SAAR, and came closest to reality in his OEM forecasts. (Read More…)
Chrysler Group up 20 percent, GM up 16 percent, Toyota up 60 percent. Across the board sales up 22 percent (see table.)
June sales of new cars and trucks come in stronger than the cautious estimates of analysts. Why? America’s most successful sales predictor thinks everybody needed to “make that quarter.” (Read More…)
| JUNE 2012 SALES VOLUME FORECAST | |||||
| Sales Volume | June’12 Forecast | June’11 | May’12 | Change from June 2011* | Change from May 2012 |
| GM | 233,987 | 215,335 | 245,256 | 8.70% | -4.60% |
| Ford | 201,980 | 193,421 | 215,699 | 4.40% | -6.40% |
| Toyota | 184,512 | 110,937 | 202,973 | 66.30% | -9.10% |
| Chrysler | 143,521 | 120,394 | 150,041 | 19.20% | -4.30% |
| Honda | 126,610 | 83,892 | 133,997 | 50.90% | -5.50% |
| Nissan | 88,113 | 71,941 | 91,794 | 22.50% | -4.00% |
| Industry | 1,270,901 | 1,052,772 | 1,334,131 | 20.70% | -4.70% |
| *NOTE: June 2012 had 27 selling days | |||||
With only a few days until the end of the month, Edmunds issued its June sales forecast. Edmunds expects that 1,270,901 new cars will be sold in June, translating into a 20.7 percent increase compared to June 2011, and a 4.7 percent decrease from May 2012. The Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) is projected to come in at 13.9 million light vehicles. (Read More…)
The new CX-5 SUV is selling so well that Mazda has to expand capacity by 50 percent. (Read More…)
If the year would have ended on May 31st, Toyota would be the world’s largest automaker by a wide margin, followed by GM, and a distant third, Volkswagen. The year is not over until it’s over, but 5 months are a good indicator for the rest of the year. Let’s have a look. (Read More…)
Ford expects June new car and truck sales to come in at the same rate as in May, and sees a cloudy rest of the year as the outlook for the economy remains mixed. (Read More…)
Consulting firm Alix Partners predicts a slowdown of U.S. auto sales. The study, reported at Reuters, cites the usual suspects, such as lingering high unemployment, increased costs and more people driving less. It then touches on something that is very basic, but often overlooked: Sales are driven by the number of potential buyers. If there are fewer buyers, there will be fewer buys. New cars are bought in certain age groups, usually somewhere at around 35 and up. As the boomers are going out to pasture, there simply will be fewer potential buyers. (Read More…)
TTAC’s advisor in cross-cultural affairs, Frau Schmitto-san, advises me that “itay” means “pain” in Japanese. Nomen est omen: Pessimistic remarks of an analyst named “Itay” sent car stocks down this morning. By mid day, Ford had dropped 19 cents, GM lost 53 cents. All because Citi analyst Itay Michaeli thinks the car market may not be as hot as some think. (Read More…)
So, you want a small, practical wagon with a little bit of Euro flair and luxury pretensions. Unless you’re willing to mix with the rabble in a VW, what are your options? Volvo V50? Dead. Audi A3? Not much time left before it’s discontinued in the USA. Try the BMW 3-Series Wagon if you want something German.
The Chevrolet Volt should eclipse its 2011 sales total by the end of June, and is apparently on pace to sell 20,000 units this year. It’s also outselling a major Chevrolet nameplate.
Jeep is hoping to sell 125,000 vehicles in Europe by 2015, and in addition to new product, the brand is also undertaking a sponsorship deal with one of Italy’s most popular soccer teams.
The European car market – if taken together, the world’s second largest behind China and before the U.S. – continues its slow drift to the bottom. Sales in May were down by 8.7 percent in the EU. This is the eighth month in a row that sales are in minus territory. Five months into the year, the market is down 7.7 percent. (Read More…)
If you read Volkswagen’s global sales report for May, you get the impression that this was yet another great month. Global sales are up 7.8 percent in May. Things don’t look so rosy when you analyze the numbers a bit further. (Read More…)
TTAC’s patent-pending China sales oracle is back to old form again. A few days ago, GM China reported a May sales increase of 21.3 percent. Today, China’s Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) announced its official numbers, and sales are reported to be up 22.6 percent in May. (Read More…)
Recent Comments