GM’s decline began fifty years ago, when the domestic automaker failed to repel import sales with competitive products. GM’s rear-engined air-cooled Corvair provided the template: technically advanced, but too expensive to provide profit. A string of over-ambitious and ultimately doomed imports fighters followed: aluminum-engined Vega, the Wankel, X-Body FWD, Olds Diesel V8, Cadillac V8-6-4 and EV-1. Now, when it can least afford a costly mistake, GM is launching a blitz of four different hybrid systems in a desperate attempt to counter Toyota’s successful Hybrid Synergy Drive (HSD). Is GM’s Volt the Corvair reincarnated?
Toyota’s ascendancy has been well documented: the tortoise approach to continuously improved products, processes and technologies. The Prius was born in the early nineties when oil was $15 a barrel. Initially subsidized by Toyota, the Prius is now a profitable product. And Toyota continues to relentlessly wring-out the costs of HSD; the Japanese automaker expects its hybrids to have the same (high) profit margins as its conventional cars by 2010.
Instead of figuring out how to make its (conventional) small cars profitably, GM has opened the floodgates to hybrid development. In fall ’06, Saturn introduced the belt-assist (BAS) or “mild hybrid” Saturn Vue. While GM’s BAS system allowed the domestic automaker to crow that it was, finally, in the hybrid business, sales are… unknown. [GM is the only automaker that doesn’t to break out hybrid sales numbers.]
The two-mode hybrid system set to be introduced on the Chevrolet Tahoe and GMC Yukon is classic GM: a technically ambitious product that costs too much money. GM has publicly stated that the two-mode costs the company $10k. Try amortizing that with three dollar gas; it just doesn’t pan out. No surprise that development partners Daimler and BMW are quietly walking away from the two-mode in favor of their own cheaper partial-hybrid systems. Even using six bucks a gallon gas, Europeans can’t justify the extra investment.
GM will sell a few thousand hybrid Tahoes and Suburbans to politicians, celebrities and the like, so they can ride in their behemoths “guilt free.” Meanwhile, GM is rushing their new light-truck diesel to market. The oil burner’s a better and cheaper choice for the real world conditions in which pickups and SUV’s operate (highway mileage improvement of the hybrid Tahoe is all of 2 mpg). And just who’s going to buy a Chevrolet Malibu with a $10k two-mode hybrid system?
Now, “plug-in hybrids” have replaced the fuel cell as the eco-darling concept du jour. GM has no fewer than two such systems in development. A plug-in version of the Vue could well end up costing $45k ($6 to $10k on top of the $10k cost of the two-mode system).
And then there’s the Volt. According to GM’s Bob Lutz, “Five years from now there will be one technology leader in the world, and it will be GM.” That boast has a familiar ring to it. And even if it turns out to be true, it will be a hollow (i.e. unprofitable) victory.
GM is sending its series-hybrid Volt to a showdown at the ECO corral against the parallel-hybrid Prius. With its projected 40 miles plug-in range and on-board generator, the Volt sounds impressive. But the Gen3 Prius due out in 2010 (like the Volt?), may well equal and even eclipse the Volt’s efficiency.
The Volt’s weakness– intrinsic drive train inefficiencies– show up as soon as its battery range is exhausted. While GM projects 50mpg during “charge sustaining operation” operation, that’s a misleading claim. The batteries will need to be charged by the generator– as well as keeping the car moving. Like all electric vehicles, the Volt will do best in shorter-range city driving.
The Prius’ HSD drive feeds the output of its gas engine directly to the wheels at higher speeds. It’s an intrinsically more efficient solution than using a generator to send power to an electric motor via the batteries. And Gen3 Prius will easily meet or exceed the Volt’s 50mpg continuous-use projection; Toyota projects a 15 to 20 percent improvement over the Prius’ current 46mpg EPA rating. Gen3 Prius will also have expanded electric-only range, as well as an optional plug-in range extender, approaching the Volt’s electric-only range.
GM will milk all the publicity it can get from the Volt. Hard-core eco-poseurs will buy in. After spending a billion dollars developing the Volt, they’re looking to sell some 60k annually at $30k apiece. GM is anxious about that price, and is already floating the idea of renting the battery pack separately from the car (negating any actual savings from plug-in electric energy) to try to blunt the impact (“We’ll sell you a Volt for $20k, battery not included”).
Meanwhile, Toyota will be selling 150k similarly-efficient Prii for a mere $20k, and making a tidy profit doing so.
They would be better off developing cleaner diesels for the monster SUV. Toyota is reaping the benefits of 15 years of development. They paid their dues. Hybrids may only be a stopgap measure until we come up with a way to burn water but GM’s attempts are laughable at best, sadly expensive at worse.
NEC went 16 years without making a profit at semiconductors. After that they never lost money again. Japanese companies are more patient than American companies when it comes to the future.
I never understand why GM cannot focus and start out small yet in the right direction. It’s the nature of this beast to make claims to the heavens and underdeliver in action. Metaphorically, GM is an 800lb Gorilla with AGADD (Adult Gorilla Attention Deficeit Disorder). Can’t seem to focus on anything small and substantial – instead wants overly ambitous goals without the ability or potential to get there.
Whether it’s unions or GM management. It’s the ignorant leading the stupid and of course the other way around.
Rick W. – Gotta hit this one out.
R. Lutz, – C’mon Ricky boy hit one out the park you can do it.
Rick W swings hard makes a good cut, but misses,
Rick W. – Damn fast ball diddn’t even see taht one coming. Ok 2 more strikes. I can do this. I know I can.
Lutz. – That’s Ok Ricky, we got him figured out. He’s gonna throw a fast ball high & outside. Keep your eye on it.
Swing and a miss.
Rick – Rats a curve ball where did that come from.
I have to make hit the next one, or the team is doomed.
Lutz – Whooo didn’t know the pitcher had a curve ball. That thing had a tom of movement on it. Rick, pay attention the thing changes direction as it comes accross the plate. KEEP YOUR EYE ON THE BALL.
Swing and he hits the ball. Its deep, this one could go out of the park. It’s going, it’s going. No wait the wind has changed direction the ball is blowing back into teh park. The outfielder leaps and makes the catch at the wall. Ladies and gentlemen the Mighty GM has stuck out. There is no joy in Detroit.
And so goes the story of Detroit. We have strikes, we have product that looks liek it wil be a home run and then fickle wind of the market changes and sals fizzle out.
Ever wonder why Toyota and Honda’s best sellers are non descript. Because they are like singles. Kind of boring but if you get a lot of them, you win the game
The Volt’s weakness– intrinsic drive train inefficiencies– show up as soon as its battery range is exhausted.
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But the Gen3 Prius due out in 2010 (like the Volt?), may well equal and even eclipse the Volt’s efficiency.
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And Gen3 Prius will easily meet or exceed the Volt’s 50mpg continuous-use projection; Toyota projects a 15 to 20 percent improvement over the Prius’ current 46mpg EPA rating.
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While I don’t necessarily disagree with the overall tone and message of the article, there seem to be some serious assumptions being made here. Does the author actually know that the Gen3 Prius will be 20% more efficient? And that it will easily match the Volt? That seems doubtful, as neither car EVEN EXISTS at this point!
What about the inherent iefficiency of needing to tune an ICE to run in a broad range of RPM (Prius) versus the inherent efficiency of tuning an ICE to run at a constant load at a constant RPM (all generators, like in the Volt)?
Not saying he’s not right on both counts, just pointing out that it’s not always right to try to predict the future so exactly…
Re: ret:
The Gen3 Prius is actually projected to be 32% more efficient.
Source Link
I highly recommend the link, it has data on the torque and output curves of the 2nd-gen Toyota hybrid drive, which will be in the 3rd-gen Prius. The document embodies “the tortoise approach to continuously improved products, processes and technologies” that the author mentions.
Other modifications:
+ Max motor output raised from 33kW to 50kW
+ Max motor torque raised from 350Nm to 400Nm
+ Generator max rpm raised from 6k to 10k
The list goes on…read the link. I’m not saying that GM can’t do these things, but I haven’t heard anything from them, and Toyota is a moving target.
(EDIT: My mistake – this is a document regarding the improvements from the 1st-gen Prius to the 2nd-gen Prius. But the point is the same. GM needs to start showing specifics, and Toyota isn’t standing still either.)
Paul, you hit the nail on the head with this article.
Every time – EVERY TIME – GM tries to do something “high tech” for mass production (often as a Chevrolet), it screws the pooch.
The copper cooled Chevrolet in 1923. The Turboglide automatic (Chevrolet, 1957-1961). The Roto-Hydramatic “Slim Jim” 1961-1964. The Corvair (Chevrolet, again) 1960-69. GM air suspension, 1958-1959 (disasterously bad). The Vega, 1971-1977. The X-cars 1980-1985. GM (Olds) diesel V8’s 1978-1985. Cadillac V8-6-4 1981. Turbohydramatic 200 automatic (especially when put behind a V8 or Olds Diesel V8) with pressed steel planetary gears – 1976-1986. Chevrolet Malibu aluminum brake calipers (absolute JUNK) 1997-2003. The stillborn Wankel engine of 1973, 1974, 1975… never arrived….
So what confidence have I that GM can pull off a Volt hat-trick? (Especially when the “vaporware” batteries required to make it work can’t even get off the assembly line without exploding?)
http://www.autobloggreen.com/2007/10/02/matsushita-suspends-liion-battery-production-after-fire-at-plant/
why doesn’t GM apply its Allison hybrid transmission design concept to light trucks and cars?
Diesels are great, but try convincing the American buying public of their reliability, given GM’s history in that department.
Was the EV1 really that unprofitable? I assume it’s because they were produced in such low numbers for a small geographic area, and were so well designed that they required little maintenance.
I just see it as one step forward, two steps back in GM’s case.
ret:
Valid points, that I didn’t have space to fully cover:
“Intrinsic drive train inneficiencies” – I did quite a bit of research on this issue. The parallel vs. serial hybrid debate is intense and will not really be fully settled soon. But the greater inneficiency of the serial hybrid once it exhausts its batteries is hard to argue. The losses in the engine, generator, batteries and electric motor exceed the mechanical loss in the parallel (HSD) transmission. The efficiency improvement of the serial (Volt) gas engine running at one (or two) fixed speeds is not enough to make up the difference. The Prius Atkinson cycle runs very efficiently within its range. More details at http://www.greencarcongress.com
Because of problems with the lithium ion batteries, Toyota changed the timeline of the next Prius. Instead of a new 2009 MY Prius, the current one will be facelifted for 2009 and 2010 MY. The 2011 Prius will be the gen3 model. Toyota has said that the goal for efficiency improvement for the gen3 Prius will be 15-20%. They beat or exceeded the improvement goal for gen2 Prius over gen1 Prius. They have a proven track record on meeting their goals.
The current Prius has a 2008 EPA rating of 46 mpg (combined). A 15% improvement = 53 mpg; a 20% improvement = 55 mpg.
GM may try to claim a potentially higher EPA “equivalent” if they factor in the miles driven on electric only. But the higher acquisition cost is the issue I’m focusing on. The Volt concept is interesting and will appeal to some; but the unknowns about battery costs and life will limit its sales.
Prius is now a mainstream car, and no longer being bought just for eco-bragging rights. It’s highly reliable, economical, and reasonably priced. That’s what the Volt is up against.
altoids:
That document actually refers to the gen2 Prius, and its improvement over gen1 Prius (dated 2004).
durailer: “why doesn’t GM apply its Allison hybrid transmission for cars and lght trucks”
It did. The two-mode system I referred two is a scaled down Allison, and is used in the Tahoe, Suburban, and presumably soon, the pick-ups. And a FWD version will be available in the Malibu, Aura and Vue. The problem is GM has acknowledged that it costs $10k.
It’s also what will be going into the Chrysler Aspen, if it (the Aspen) lasts that long.
GM does have one BIG advantage. Would you rather drive a car that looks like a Prius or looks like the Volt (assuming the production Volt looks like the concept)? Who cares which ultimately gets the best gas mileage when the Prius has the sex appeal of a burqa while the Volt looks like a supermodel in Versace.
Well, I personally think that someone else’s comment about the looks of the Volt were right – “looks like a grand piano was dropped on it”.
I LIKE the looks of my Citroen-esque Prius II (my 2nd, 2nd gen Prius – a 2008).
Kind of like a man’s taste in women (and vice versa) – each to their own.
They would be better off developing cleaner diesels for the monster SUV
Or how about one tractable, efficient, absolutely bullet proof four?
It seems the Japanese have traditionally been long term oriented like the bamboo tree that shows nothing above ground for 7 years while it is building a massive root system to support explosive future growth.
US listed companies on the other hand are pressured by Wall Street to deliver on Revenue and Profit growth each quarter. Somehow it’s almost like “boiling the frog” where it adapts to the water temperature until it’s dead.
I don’t know how long it will be before the old Prius starts to cause trouble, as all older cars inevitably do, but when it does, the penny will drop that the cost of maintenance is very very high by comparison, with let’s say, a Corolla of the same age.
Battery replacements, electric motor failures and the obviously super complicated electronic controls are bound to require attention sooner rather than later.
When this becomes general knowledge, it problematic to predict what the used car value of the Prius and for that matter, all the hybrids, will be.
If hybrids get out into the general market and therefore out of the hands of tree huggers and Hollywoods’ prominent personages, they will be judged by the usual standards and will be found wanting.
This may well affect sales of hybrids and with competition from the phenomenally economical and simple to maintain European type diesels, which should be here by 2010, the future may not be anywhere near as rosy as we now think.
The Prius has turned out to be much more reliable than anyone in the repair industry thought possible, but time and mileage marches on.
It remains very much to be seen if the hybrid phenomenon is a blind alley going nowhere – or not.
qa, well said. This is how the Japanese companies have come up from a wrecked and nuked Japan in 1945, to an economic world power.
When everyone was ready to write-off Mitsubishi (when Daimler-Chrysler yanked the rug from under them a couple of years back), I kind of “knew” that Mitsubishi would not fail. Sure enough, momma and pappa came along to save baby. (Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Mitsubishi Bank).
The problem with diesels is that they’re all turbodiesels. No turbo is cheap in the long run.
Your point about hybrids still stands, I just disagree that diesels will be that much better.
Paul, ret:
Correct me if I’m wrong, but as I understand it, the purpose of all hybrid systems is to smooth out the power demands on the engine, by storing excess power in the batteries during low power demand, and using battery power during high power demand. The ability of the system to keep the engine in the efficient operating range depends on the battery storage capacity.
I’m not familiar with the specifics of Prius operation, but there is no fundamental reason why the power demand on the Prius would be more variable than the Volt, assuming they have similar battery capacities.
With regards to lithiun ion batteries:
This is something I know a little about, since I go to the same school that A123 is spun-off from. The key issue with most battery technologies is electrode surface-area. The surface area is key because that is where the electrochemistry occurs, where the lithium salt touches the carbon. They’ve managed to vastly increase surface area with either nanoporous electrode or a nanoparticle aggregate, created from lithium transition metal phosphates. (Hence their trademark, nanophosphates.) This had been known for some time, the key breakthrough was doping them with zirconium, titanium, niobium, or magnesium. It doesn’t really matter which, although I’m sure they have optimized the blend.
This is an EXPENSIVE technology. Hopefully, mass-production will bring down the cost of nanoparticle synthesis, but the raw material costs can’t be avoided. Lithium is not cheap, zirconium is not cheap, and it will stay that way.
For scientist types, the reference is:
Electronically conductive phospho-olivines as lithium storage electrodes
Sung-Yoon Chung, Jason T. Bloking, Yet-Ming Chiang
Nature Mat. 1, 123 – 128
philbailey, are you forgetting the fact that in Canada, they are using Prius cars as taxicabs and running 250,000 miles before selling them off – without having to replace traction batteries?
I kind of take a little bit of exception to your idea that Prius cars are only bought by posers, geeks, Hollywood types – that is not only a stereotype, but a really stale one.
As mentioned before, I’m now on my 2nd Toyota ever, and my 2nd second generation Prius (2005 and now 2008).
I don’t care if it has 3 gerbils and a rat under the hood in whirley cages to power it – what counts for me is the results.
48 to 50 mpg consistently over 48,200 miles on my 2005. My “high” was a U.P. (Michigan) trip in April of this year, over 800 plus miles, in excess of 56.5 mpg. With 3 adults, hundreds of pounds of luggage and food, 2 guitars, etc. – not all on 55 mph roads, or in towns – some 70 mph expressway. Ideal conditions, yes. 55-65 degrees (no AC needed), snow tires no longer on the car, but nevertheless, you tell me any other mid-sized car which would have done that…. don’t even go there with a diesel Jetta – it’s significantly smaller inside.
0-60 in about 10 seconds. This is “mid-sized family car, V8 performance” for our parents in the 1960’s, and super high performance in the mid 1950’s for anything on the road. As someone wiser than I said recently, “nobody needs to reach 60 mph faster than in 10 seconds.” True enough – virtually the only time it’s even possible on our crowded roads is when there’s nobody else around, and whoopdee doo, if you get to 60 in 7 seconds – who cares? Big frickin’ deal – especially if you’re getting 12 mpg in your “ride” with dwindling fuel supplies and increasing demand worldwide.
The car is comfortable. It seats four very comfortably, five in a (somewhat literal) pinch – “depending upon girth” (sorry – there’s a joke there somewhere).
The car’s flexible. I’ve had a massive 27″ crt HDTV in the box, in the car – trunk closed. I’ve had a new Honda SNOWBLOWER in the car – trunk closed.
Best of all, the car is on the road right now – not pie in the sky, available some day on the by and by.
And it has 12 years of production knowledge behind it, with literally hundreds of millions of miles travelled – by owners, not leasees, like GM’s EV1.
The car is RELIABLE. My 2005 was the most trouble free car I’ve ever owned, and I’ve had over 2 dozen cars in my life. Kudos to Toyota for this extreme reliability – because this is the most COMPLEX automobile on planet earth. Some of the reliability is because electronics are so much more reliable (nowadays) than mechanical stuff…. also Toyota’s ATTENTION TO DETAILS certainly helps.
Prius is a REAL car. Not a niche car anymore.
altoids: It’s not the power demand that will be more variable, but the internal combustion engine rpm range. In the Volt, the generator driving engine will be tuned to operate at one (possibly two) fixed speeds. It will come on (and off) as needed to keep the batteries in their designated state of charge range.
In the Prius, there is some “smoothing out” by the batteries/electric motor, but not to the same extent. At highway cruise, the Prius is mostly running like a conventional car, and (gas) engine speeds vary accordingly.
If you are judging diesel reliability by VWs very poor history in recent times – don’t do it.
Big rigs get a million miles out of their engines and Europeans easily achieve a half million kilometers time and time again.
Unlike hybrids, we just haven’t been exposed to the technology that is now common practice elsewhere. At least, diesels will burn a whole host of alternative fuels.
Hybrid diesels will be a better choice, but the problem of cost of batteries, motors and a host of resident black boxes will still remain.
A taxi, which generates profit every day of its life and IS an investment, unlike private cars, cannot be judged by the same financial standards.
I know that all the hydrid owners will get frothy mouthed about their cars, but I haven’t seen any statistics for the taxi experience and I’ll bet they are not financially impressive.
Among other things, you can’t sell a taxi second hand unless you lie about it so why not flog it to death?
Taxi drivers I know double 250,000 Km (not miles) and they all seem to be driving regular four cylinder Camrys these days, nary a hybrid in sight.
I wonder what these owner drivers know that some of us don’t? Or don’t want to know
Kudos to GM for trying to outfox Toyota, rather than lying down to die. They are experimenting with several new technologies, targeted at various niches. Mild hybrids for the cost conscious, dual mode for heavy vehicles and serials for those of us who commute less than 40-50 miles a day.
This race ain’t over yet, by a long shot.
Phil I think the point of bringing up the Prius taxis is that it’s about the best way I know of to simulate 15 to 20 years of real world use in a much shorter timeframe. Glenn, not sure if this is the one you are talking about but
this guy seems to be on his second one now, after Toyota took the first one back to study. A prius is a little smaller than a camry, or the other common cab cars, not surprised everyone isn’t using them.
I think the main point here is that the early signs indicate the Prius will be very cheap to own for several hundred thousand miles.
SherbornSean: “Kudos to GM for trying to outfox Toyota… This race ain’t over yet, by a long shot.”
Yes it is.
It’s like GM let Toyota get a 250 mile lead in the Indy 500. All GM can do is pray Toyota explodes. Toyota has sold – what? – half a million Priuses? More? Even Ford, with its good, reputedly pretty reliable Escape Hybrid, doesn’t have the mindshare and reputation that Toyota’s got. Even mighty Honda is an also-ran. We see Priuses frequently and everywhere. They run reliably. Toyota OWNS the hybrid market.
This will translate into premium prices and resale value on Toyota hybrids for a generation.
Fast-forward to 2010 … or 2011 … or 2012 and the new Volt is (finally) available. Who wants a first-model year Volt from GM? It makes people nervous to buy a first-model year *conventional* power train vehicle from GM. And very similar capability will either cost more than a 3rd generation Prius or will have to be sold at a loss.
Does GM have some dream that the Volt will have a lock on battery technology and plug-in capability? They won’t. As soon as Li-Ions are available for the Volt, they’re available for the Prius. As soon as they’re ready, Toyota can swap in a hi-capacity battery pack, modify software parameters, add an AC adapter and put a “proven” plug-in Prius on the street. Toyota will be able to market a “Conventional” Prius for current prices and a “Plug-in” Prius for a premium price.
Who put the brakes on hybrids at GM? Heads should roll.
The Hybrid in the Tahoe IS the Allison.. The Hybrid buses in Seattle, Philly and several other major US cities are each saving as much fuel as dozens of Prius'. The 2-mode is the way to go if you want to go over 50 mph. Have you driven a Prius lately? Why is it OK for Toyota to advance technology even when thy lose money for a few years but if GM does it you say they are wrong?
The Prius is growing volume at 50% per year; how can anybody compete with that? In my opinion the Prius has delivered a knock-out blow to the whole car industry.
My favorite future Prius idea: put in a small high-compression ratio, direct injection engine that runs on ethanol at ~100MPG (okay, maybe 70MPG), combined with a plug-in battery good for 10 miles range and OPEC will be out of business.
Compared to the Prius the Volt seems risky: are those huge batteries really going to be available at low cost and high volume? Currently, the cost is an order of magnitude too high.
Kixstart “Who put the brakes on hybrids at GM? Heads should roll.”
I say, who put the rear drum brakes on the Prius, (The most technically advanced vehicle sold to the general public)?!?! Heads should roll.
DT
The Chevrolet Malibu/Saturn Aura twin hybrids do not cost $10k more than their traditional 4 cylinder counterparts.
The base 4 cyclinder Aura MSRP is $20,395 while the hybrid is $22,770. I suspect that many folks will be willing to part with an extra $2K for the better bas mileage not to mention the hybrid badge.
MPLS: You’re referring to the Aura/Malibu with the BAS (Belt assist) micro-hybrid. The two-mode FWD is still about a year or so off. The mileage improvement with tha BAS system is about 10%. Aura 4 cyl: 22/30; Green Line: 24/33. The return on the extra $2500 is iffy.
philbailey, you are making some misconceptions. The Prius, by design will be more reliable and cost less to repair over a given amount of time or miles than compared to a conventional ICE powered car.
Toyota will pay you $250 to take the dead batteries off your hands. Guess what? Over 10 years now since the first production Prius hit the pavement and there have been no dead batteries yet. Toyota predicts the batteries will last as long as 15 – 20 years. The vast majority of mechanical parts in an average ICE-powered car have a much greater chance of failing than the batteries on the Prius.
Since the Prius uses less mechanical systems, repair costs are lower than a regular car. Electric systems are almost always vastly more reliable than mechanical systems. The brake wear on the Prius is less than a regular car. The engine wear is less than a regular car. Put all these things together and even after 15 or 20 years a Prius will still be cheaper to repair than a regular ICE powered car of equivalent age or miles.
People seem to be forgetting here that Toyota has hybrid versions of just about everything they make either on sale or in the works. IF the Volt turns out not to be a seaming turd, do you really think GM can apply the technoligy to all it’s other cars in time to save itself?
LedFoot : GM loses money on everything they do. And then never get it back.
1169hp: “Who put the rear drum brakes on the Prius…?”
Who cares? Much – most, I believe – of the Prius’ braking is regenerative and has nothing to do with the friction braking system.
KixStart :
Who put the brakes on hybrids at GM? Heads should roll.
Bean counters, it appears. Link to Wired.com article about GM taking apart competitors’ cars, and concluding that the 2nd gen Prius wasn’t worth replicating due to complexity and cost, and to go with hydrogen instead.
http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/14.02/teardown.html
Of course, the article came out just before Lutz did the about face on hybrid development.
Funny how GM offers vehicles with improved fuel economy to those who can afford the high price of gasoline. Where is the reasonably priced hybrid Cobalt for people like me who cringe every week when I fill my tank ?
Comparing the Volt to “all electric vehicles” is not a valid comparison. A hybrid – gasoline/electric, diesel/electric or hydraulic/gasoline – does better in the city in terms of mileage, because the internal combustion engines is oftentimes not being used. Mileage is in fact better, for that reason. Range is not a problem.
Hybrids have regenerative braking, which means that as the driver brakes, energy is being put back into the batteries; so the idea that the batteries “have to be re-charged” in the conventional sense of being plugged into an outlet is not part of the deal. Hybrids can go and go and go until the batteries are simply expended. (They think maybe five to seven years, for the batteries in the Prius.)
The best selling point with hybrids, in terms of city driving, is that is where the emissions are lowest, again due to the fact that often as not, only the electric motor is being used to move the vehicle. Because everyone in government is so up in arms about emissions, the biggest (potential) market for hybrids is not in the automotive market, but rather trucks, and Class 6 and bigger. General Motors would be wise to figure out a hybrid drivetrain – a serious one – for its 3/4 and one ton work trucks, as are Peterbilt, Kenworth, International and Mack.
A vehicle that is powered solely by an electric motor, could get stranded in the city, as there is no regenerative process and factors such as extremely cold weather or hills, could deplete the batteries – especially conventional lead acid batteries – in such a short period of time and distance, that unless you could pull into a place with a charger, or carried a portable one, you might have to walk home. That is the key reason that vehicles powered solely by an electric motor or motors, have never caught on with anyone other than True Believers or Hollywood celebrities.
Thing is, studies show that many Americans don’t travel more than 35 miles to-and-from work, so electrics – sole electrics – could fufill most people’s transportation needs. But in places such as Los Angeles, or even Seattle, where the cost of housing is driving people, further and further out, only hybrids can meet people’s needs.
In terms of the economics of hybrids, you could probably call the cost of housing what economists would: an externality.
By the way, the Chevrolet Corvair wasn’t a flop because it didn’t get engineered well; at least not in its last generation. Even Ralph Nader has admitted that, once the General put an anti-sway bar on the rear end, it was fine to drive. But by 1966, it had become so ingrained in people’s minds that it was a death-trap, sales just trickled down to nothing. GM would have killed it sooner, but from what I have read, they didn’t want to look as if they’d given into Mr. Nader.
The Corvair was no more a death trap, than the Volkswagen Beetle of that time, maybe less. But try explaining an anti-sway bar to the average consumer.
Re glenn126 points about the Prius…
0-60 in about 10 seconds. This is “mid-sized family car, V8 performance” for our parents in the 1960’s, and super high performance in the mid 1950’s for anything on the road. As someone wiser than I said recently, “nobody needs to reach 60 mph faster than in 10 seconds.” True enough – virtually the only time it’s even possible on our crowded roads is when there’s nobody else around, and whoopdee doo, if you get to 60 in 7 seconds – who cares? Big frickin’ deal – especially if you’re getting 12 mpg in your “ride” with dwindling fuel supplies and increasing demand worldwide.
Your enthusiasm for the Prius is fine – it’s a fine small car. I’ve driven one with four adults, and while ride and handling deteriorate, it is, like I said, a fine small car.
However, your (and many other Pruis fans’) preoccupation with what’s best for all ( “nobody needs…”) is paternalistic and tiring. If a person values some driving performance and a clutch (and can afford slightly higher gas bills), the Mazda 3 is a BETTER small car (for them).
Your “dwindling fuel supplies” isn’t quite accurate. I think worldwide oil production is still increasing. Doom and gloomers have been predicting the end of the petroleum era for decades. Fortunately, as prices and demand rise, people and excellent firms like Exxon-Mobile respond to incentives (to use less and find more, respectively.)
Bottom line… If I choose to burn $10/gallon gas in my Cayman-S or live in a 5,000 sq. ft. home with $1000/month utility bills, it’s my business as long as I can pay….
Believe it or not there less visonary companies out there than GM! Renault staunchly refuses to make a hybrid of their own claiming that diesels can get the same mpg and are cheaper, causually forgetting about the increase in NOx and carbon monoxide fumes. A hybrid is more than higher mpg; a car working from the electric motor means very little (if any) emissions are emitted. Something a diesel can’t do, not by a long shot.
In fact, Carlos “I know jack about cars but know a lot about bean counting” Ghosn recently said in an interview, when there was a drop in the rise of sales of hybrids, that “he was feeling particularly smug that the hybrid hype was dying”*. Needless to say, how smug is he feeling now that hybrid are no longer hype and killing diesels? And YOU thought GM was arrogant?!
Anyway back to GM. If GM bring the Chevrolet Volt to production, I’ll be impressed. GM do have a bit of a tendency of letting concept cars die on their arse. Trouble is, they’ll will be about 10 years behind the Prius and Toyota also has a tendency of building a loyal fanbase (Camry, Corolla etc) mainly through reliable products and a pleasant ownership. One only has to look at Mr Glenn126 for evidence of that. I, myself, like Toyota products due to the years of trouble free motoring I’ve had with them (Honda also has a special place in my affections). I’ve said it before that organic growth takes longer, but reaps bigger rewards.
GM could also see its future in diesels. Now diesels do have their place in the world and are good technologies. But GM now need to think bigger. Staying with old technologies are for companies like Renault. For GM to beat Toyota, it needs to emulate Toyota. Toyota is seen as a visionary thinker, pushing forward new technologies and greener cars (In Europe, Toyota said they will be stopping sales of the Land Crusier (HUGE SUV) and increasing the price of the RAV4 (cute SUV) to meet CO2 fleet emissions). Now what better way of showing the world “The New GM” than to beat Toyota to the next new technology?
Personally, I’ve got renewed hope, that GM can pull this off due to the legecy costs being eased off them. Actually, let me rephrase that. I hope GM pull this off, because if they don’t, I’ll be interested to hear what their excuse will be……
* = paraphrasing
All you diesel fanboys should get to really know the european used car market. The most famous diesel engine that everybody talks about is the VW-Audi 1.9TDI in its different versions. This is the engine that started the diesel revolution in the mid 90’s in Europe. Was the engine ahead of its time 10 years ago? Yes. Was the fuel consumption lower than gasoline engines with similar size? Yes. Did those engines have huge amounts of torque? Yes.
BUT
Is this engine prone to failure? Yes. Is the 1.9TDI powerband very limited? Yes.
I will list here few VERY typical problems with VW-Audi 1.9TDI. Those problems are so common that all VW Audi forums have special topics and even sections for each of those problems. All of those problems start to appear after 50-60k miles. The new 2.0TDI has been in production for only few years, I don’t have any info on this engine yet.
This 1.9TDI is the most common diesel engine to this date in Europe. Still produced on cheaper VW-s, Skodas and Seats.
1. Turbcharger failure. They quit in about 60-100k miles. Complicated Variable Nozzle turbos – nozzles will get stuck, or break, shafts will break, wastegates get stuck etc. New turbocharger costs about 1500 USD.
2. All the electronic parts. MAF- mass aiflow meters fail. N75 vacum valves break that control the turbocharger. Various vacum leaks.
3. Clogging of various parts in the intake system – EGR, intake itself.
4. Headgaskets are prone to failure with some versions of the 1.9TDI
And the list goes on.
And if the 1.9TDI is very problematic, then with VW-Audi 2.5TDI you can multiply the horror by ten. Mega expensive timing belt changes every 50k miles, AND at 100k miles you need to replace all four camshafts because the camshaft wear!!! etc…
Turbocharger failure is common with all diesel engines(not only VW), lifespan of a thrust/journal bearing (most common on diesel engines) turbocharger is maxium about 100k miles. Even less with extended drain intervalls with longlife oils (20k miles without changing oil). And for example diesel injector failure is very common with BMW diesel engines after 100k miles (3.0d). Very costly to replace. This is hands-on real experience from my friends who work in different service departments(VW, BMW, Audi).
So think twice before you start talking about bulletproof long lasting diesel engines. Compared to Prius engine system the 1.9TDI is a nightmare.
Mr Brock_Landers,
Don’t misunderstand me, here, I’m on your side being pro-hybrid, but how many of those faults on the 1.9 TDI powertrains were due to poor quality diesel, VW’s shoddy reliability etc rather than inherent design flaws?
Isn’t shoddy reliability partially a design flaw? :) In Europe we don’t really have poor quality diesel. All diesel fuel that is sold in stations is with exactly the same standard.
Mr Brock_Landers,
What I was getting at was that maybe the design works on papers, but due to “bean counting” the parts selected weren’t up to the job, but higher quality parts could make the powertrain work?
As for diesel, I wouldn’t be too sure of that. One only has to look at tne supermarket fuel problems to show that not all fuels can be the same. Fuels in the UK, only have to meet one standard (BSEN590, I think?). Which means it has to be refined to the same standard as other diesels. It makes no mention, that diesels should contain detergents to clean the engine. Supermarket fuels don’t have the same detergents (if any) as say, BP or Shell. Which makes engines running on supermarket diesels more prone to clogging injectors etc.
Just a thought. :O)
# ihatetrees :
Bottom line… If I choose to burn $10/gallon gas in my Cayman-S or live in a 5,000 sq. ft. home with $1000/month utility bills, it’s my business as long as I can pay….
Interesting perspective… unfortunately only a very limited proportion of the world’s population can live like that on this planet. Your ability to afford it is necessarily dependent on the (permanent) inability of many thousands of others not to. That is not a situation that all those others are likely to tolerate for a long time. The level of military dominance needed to maintain that disparity over time is not matched by America’s financial capacity to pay for it. I wonder what the economic consequences of the war in Iraq will be?
The oft-repeated claim that the Prius has been around a long time and battery failure hasn’t been a problem, seems to miss the point somewhat.
I’ve never had a cellphone or laptop battery fail. They do however degrade to the point of uselessness (i.e. they store less and less energy).
The controller in the Prius must be constantly aware of the battery’s capacity and use it accordingly to maximise the MPG (running on battery at low speed, regenerative breaking, etc etc). As the battery capacity degrades the controller must take this in it’s stride, but less capacity will mean less scope for MPG-boosting energy swapping.
So my question: Is battery failure a red-herring and is gradual degradation of the hybrid efficiency a problem? I.e. will a Prius get progressively less MPG as the battery ages?
Just a thought.
cheers
Malcolm
malcolmmacaulay :
I.e. will a Prius get progressively less MPG as the battery ages?
Yes. Like every other car on the road today. The older it is the more it’ll degrade. A Toyota Prius can do many things, but stop time?
KatiePuckrik :
malcolmmacaulay :
I.e. will a Prius get progressively less MPG as the battery ages?
Yes. Like every other car on the road today. The older it is the more it’ll degrade. A Toyota Prius can do many things, but stop time?
OK, I should have asked a supplementary question: How significant is the reduction? A well-maintained/tuned conventional ICE car will still get good MPG, even with high mileage. A hybrid system has much more to lose, as a significant part of its MPG advantage stems from the battery storage (which can degrade quickly – like your cellphone).
At 100k miles of typical driving, by how much has the MPG of a Prius reduced? I know the Prius uses only a very narrow band of the battery capacity (something like 45 – 75%).
cheers
Malcolm
malcolmmacaulay :
I’ve never had a cellphone or laptop battery fail. They do however degrade to the point of uselessness (i.e. they store less and less energy).
That’s definitely a problem with lithium ion batteries, that they all lose capacity over time. Not as big a problem with NiMH cells used in the Prius and other HEV’s, as long as the cells aren’t kept at a constant voltage.
JDM and EU Priuses have a button that enables electric-only mode for a couple of miles, and probably results in marked battery drain. This feature is not available in the US and thought to be due to the longer battery warranty mandated here.
I’d say that the battery in the Prius (at least, for US and Canada consumption) is “extra-protected” and therefore the long-life deterioration should be less than cars sold in Europe, etc. Perhaps the Vancouver taxi outfit is able to answer the question, but my “guess” is that had it been a problem, the same taxi outfit would not have bothered with replacing a Prius – with a Prius.
This situation of battery life for the US/Canada is because Toyota refuses to put the “EV” button on cars for this market, because the engineers probably know that excessive use of this stresses the battery more.
There is another slight difference between “Euro” market Prius cars and US/Canada cars, and that is the fact that “Euro” market cars actually do have rear disc brakes. But driving is much more “spirited” there, with more emergency braking used per week than might be used in typical US/Canadian driving in a month (I know this, I’ve lived in the UK for 9 years out of my 50 on earth and visited Europe).
So, Toyota were “dumb like a fox” by putting drum brakes on US/Canadian spec cars – because drum brakes have less friction/are therefore more efficient, the Prius regenerative braking helps to reduce brake component wear to a minimum (I understand brakes may last the life of the car in some circumstances – 250,000 miles or more), and no customer has probably complained about rear drum brakes (especially if they don’t know the Euro spec Prius has rear discs) – they just care that when they put the brakes on, they work!
By the way, the Prius drum brakes are on the REAR of the car only, for the US/Canadian markets (possibly JDM market, also?) – front brakes on all Prius cars are disc brakes, worldwide. Sorry for any confusion by my not clarifying that salient fact!
# ihatetrees :
Bottom line… If I choose to burn $10/gallon gas in my Cayman-S or live in a 5,000 sq. ft. home with $1000/month utility bills, it’s my business as long as I can pay….
Under that theory, so long as I can afford them, I should be allowed to have slaves work on my plantation, enjoy recreational pharmaceuticals, and eat orphaned children for dinner….again, so long as I can afford them.
I’m with ihatetrees. Take all the Hybrids you want, I’ll stick to my good old dead dino burner. And I don’t care if I I don’t need to get to sixty in less than ten seconds. I want to get to sixty in less than ten seconds. In fact, I want to do it in under six. In theory, no body needs a car, period. You can just get up and walk or ride a bike.
You take your Pious, I’ll take my loud, crude, bad miliage fast cars, and everyone is happy in the end. Well, I am at least.
I’m going to avoid the diesel drumbeat, which I frankly find to be yet another case of Market Reality Avoidance Syndrome. (Americans don’t like diesel, and until there’s a $3/gallon gasoline tax in the US that isn’t also imposed on diesel, in order to give diesel fuel a substantial price advantage, they still won’t like ’em. Next topic, please.)
The article leads to a bona fide point of another problem syndrome in business: Not Invented Here.
The whole thing is really absurd. Why does a company that is in as serious degree of trouble as is GM feel the need to invent hybrid systems from the ground up, when it should simply license the technology from somebody else? This is an enormous waste of time, effort, staffing and money that could be resolved simply by negotiating a deal with somebody else. Yet another bit of sound and fury from GM that signifies nothing.
What GM really needs is to put what little muscle it has behind making a few fantastic mainstream cars that will give the public reason to change its mind about it.
We’re not talking about Corvettes and Cadillac roadsters here, but basic products Americans buy, such as a compact sedan, mid-sized sedan and CUV. This means making the best damn 4- and 6-cylinder gas-powered DOHC motors on the market (make then modular so that they are flexible, with different capacities and forced induction possible add-ons), coupling them to 5- and 6-speed automatics, and installing them in well-styled vehicles with outstanding interiors, matched to a 7-10 year full no-BS warranty. These can’t be just sort of as good as the competition, but far better.
Even if these few cars don’t make a dime for the first few years, it won’t matter. The early goal should be to win back public confidence and rebuild retail market share, and every effort needs to be invested to make these vehicles succeed. Profits will come later if the early efforts are successful. Right now, the goal should be to convince the American people that the products are worthy of consideration in the first place.
It’s a stretch to entrust GM with a mission of high-tech when it can’t even get low-tech right. It’s not worth taking them seriously about this when they can’t even get the basics down.
Well, for now, because of the fact that we (in the US) are engrained with the idea of it being a nation of free individuals, ihatetrees and virtual insanity CAN still buy massive houses, go 0-60 in 6 seconds, etc etc.
But the catch that ihatetrees subconsciously put into his own comments “as long as I can afford it” is going to catch up to him and others like him, and slap him on all four cheeks.
Yep, I’m a real American, I stand by the fact that it is my choice to use less energy. Yep, I cringe when injits in massive V8 and V10 and diesel pickups (with lots to compensate for, apparently) blast past my wife & I, at 80 in a 55 zone, as we carpool in the Prius (for one thing, it saves us a bunch of money to carpool in the Prius, thanks…)
But – I’m a veteran and stood out in cold fields and did a lot of other uncomfortable things for four years to defend your right to be foolish with your lives, if you stay within the law.
As of yet, last time I checked, almost without exception, wasting resources was only outside of God’s law, and you don’t have to obey that law if you don’t want to. Man’s laws don’t cover it directly – yet.
One thing none of us will escape, however, is the law of supply and demand and how it relates to energy.
Soon, very soon, I suspect that $83 a barrel is going to sneak up on all of us and slap us all, on all four cheeks. I’ll give you a little hint.
When gas was $3.66.9 a while back, crude oil was not even at $80 a barrel, and now it’s at $83, yet locally gas prices are still creeping down a penny here, a penny there.
Recently I read that in the last quarter of 2007 (which we’re in now, in case you aren’t counting) the worldwide demand for oil exceeds the supply 88 million (or was it billion?) barrels to 85.
Sounds to me like prices are going up soon. Very soon.
Have fun with your 0-60 in 6 seconds and 10-12 mpg when you have to pay $4 or $5 a gallon. Or if the “gumming” ever decides to ration fuel, IF you can buy gas for $5 or $6 a gallon.
Out of curiosity, where do you all live to get $3+ a gallon of gas…or do you lack the ability to shop around at all? When I went to fill up yesterday, I paid $2.80 for 93 octane.
93 octane was $3.09 when I filled up just the other day and I live in south south Georgia, typically one of the cheapest markets to get gas in the US. The price has jumped in just the last 2 weeks by more then 15 cents. Gas isn’t going to get cheaper unless you know of a ‘King’ size deposit in your back yard.
I work in Traverse City Michigan (northwest lower peninsula) and we “typically” have the 2nd most expensive gas in the state – day in, day out. The only place higher (in Michigan) is on Beaver Island.
Gas was 20 cents cheaper a gallon in Cadillac Michigan the other weekend when I went to visit my parents. Cadillac is 40 miles away from Traverse City. Gas is cheaper in the farthest rural corners of the Upper Peninsula, and a LOT cheaper in the southeastern corner of the state.
Gas here was $1.99.9 on January 1st, about 2 weeks ago, it was $3.06.9, but since then it has been slipping down penny by penny here, now at $2.93.9 for the cheapie 87 octane no-brand stuff.
Won’t be slipping down for long…. would be my guess.
re freedom11…
Under that theory, so long as I can afford them, I should be allowed to have slaves work on my plantation, enjoy recreational pharmaceuticals, and eat orphaned children for dinner….again, so long as I can afford them.
Equating owning of large houses and sports cars to slavery, drug use and cannibalism is just so Earth First!
Re Glenn126..
But – I’m a veteran and stood out in cold fields and did a lot of other uncomfortable things for four years to defend your right to be foolish with your lives, if you stay within the law.
Thanks for your service. I wore a green suit too- army infantry for four years after a dropped out of college. No regrets – although it ruined my appreciation of camping in the woods…
As of yet, last time I checked, almost without exception, wasting resources was only outside of God’s law, and you don’t have to obey that law if you don’t want to. Man’s laws don’t cover it directly – yet.
Waste is tough judgment call. My crack about a Cayman-S and a 5000 sq.ft. home was just an example. (I can afford neither right now – but I can HOPE :) ). However, if you want to get rid of or tax-to-death the Cayman-S’s, just don’t forget about large homes.
Actually, I think congressman John Dingle hit the nail on the head recently when he proposed both higher gas taxes and an end to the deduction for second homes (or for ANY homes above a certain value).
I can respect that type of intellectual consistency even if I disagree with it.
The scaled down Allison system costs $10K now, but it won’t cost $10K forever.
You say that Toyota was patient and HSD is now profitable. Why can’t GM’s 2 mode be profitable in 10 years?
I hate to say it, because there is lots of good information on this site, but generally TTAC reeks of anti-Detroit bias. Case in point, “haters” ridiculed GM of not being a player in the hybrid passenger car market. When they stepped up and started swinging, haters said GM’s effort wasn’t good enough and it will never match Toyota’s. (Maybe it wasn’t, but they did step up, unlike MANY other major OEM’s).
Let’s just say that the savior of all batteries (Lithium-ion) is available in time for a 2010 launch of the Volt, and the Volt’s performance matches or exceeds that of a comparable, conventional vehicle, I have a feeling that many will STILL continue with their myopic view that GM=bad, Toyota=good. I hope I’m wrong. We’ll just have to keep hoping that GM continues to make class-leading, or at least class-competetive, vehicles in all markets.
Thanks.
I love it when the all of the hybrid FUDers come out of the woodwork, then get smacked down with the real information that’s now available.
Expensive replacement batteries? Drum brakes?
Oh, please.
When our children and grandchildren are all running around in hybrid (or solar or magnetic) cars, we’ll realize how silly these cocerns were… especially in relationship to their positive points.
Steve Sack cartoon about gas prices last September, needs to be updated annually as gas prices will continue to move higher.
http://www.cagle.com/working/060922/sack.jpg
The reason why GM is spending it’s limited funds on so many projects is actually fairly simple. No one technology is the best solution for every situation, so they need to cover their butts.
For example:
Will E-Flex scale to larger vehicles?
Will Toyota’s HSD work in the Tundra?
Will diesel be accepted as a fuel in North America?
Will biofuels actually become as available as gasoline?
Also, think about this, if the Volt really is a game changer, who will own the patents and technology. Toyota and GM will probably be the only manufacturers large enough to create the required future automobile technology, which they will then license/sell/etc. to the other manufacturers. In the future, intellectual property maybe more valuable than actual car production.
I know GM is slammed for their hi-tec wonders (Corvair, rotary engine, Vega, various 30,000 mile automatic transmissions), but I think GM has generally the right idea about hybrids.
At the low end, they have the BAS hybrid, which is simply a fat belt-driven combined alternator-starter with some clutches to allow the accessory belt to go round and round with the motor stopped.
There is all of this whining “but BAS is not a true hybrid.” So, what? If a hack like BAS gets 10 percent mileage improvement vs THSD getting 20 percent improvement (tell me that isn’t the case when you compare apples to apples like the regular Camry with the hybrid Camry). Maybe a 10 percent mileage gain with a lower cost system (the sticker price on hybrids isn’t yet reflecting underlying cost) with lower part count may be a better deal than 20 percent gain with the pricier more complex system.
At the high end, GM has the two-mode hybrid. Two-mode is pretty much the GM answer to the THSD, only it has two planetary gear sets to allow for a smaller motor and a smaller generator. In other words, somewhat more gears, somewhat smaller and less costly electric machines.
As to the GM two-mode costing 10K, well, so what? The THSD was sold as a “loss leader” for years, but one goes down the cost-volume curve, and there is no law of physics to say GM cannot do the same thing. Yes, Toyota has a head start, but ultimately this is about the cost of those electric motors and battery packs from suppliers.
Milenkovic, I have never seen a *reliable* report that THSD vehicles were sold at a loss. Plenty of eBlather about it, yes, but nothing I would trust.
Toyota is driving down their costs at the part of the marketing curve where the real money gets made, as the hybrid sedan enters widespread adoption, so they’re going to make considerable money. GM’s going to come in later, in the declining margins part of the marketing curve, probably with higher manufacturing costs for the first few years, probably with significant fixed costs to be allocated across fewer units for the first few years (maybe longer) and they’re still going to have to find a way to roughly match Toyota on vehicle price for given size and capability.
Once the Volt is out there, we’ll have a choice between a refined, proven Prius hybrid and a bag full of new technology from GM. Which would you buy? If GM screws the pooch, their warranty costs, already high, are going to take off.
This is not going to be easy for GM, to say the least. Dark the future is.
GM was built on “economies of scale”. They are example #1 of this model moving to “diseconomies of disfunction”.
CeeDragon, you made me laugh – thanks, I needed that.
“Newsflash: 1912. Now that Cadillac Motor Car Company has introduced a new thing called a self-starter on the auto-mobile, in order to make it possible to actually get into same and drive away within 5 minutes, certain people are concerned that this will make the public lazy, by not having to hand-crank their 500 cubic-inch-displacement four cylinder motor-car to start them.
Physicians, on the other hand, are saying that the death rate for auto-mobilers should drop due to a reduction in broken arms, which can lead to infections, then leading to death – despite modern anti-biotics such as sulfa.”
“FE and FO Stanley, of Stanley Steamer fame, were nonplussed about the new self-starter, indicating that if Americans were serious about motoring, they would stick with tried and true steamers which only take 15 minutes to start up. Likewise, Edison was heard to comment that electric cars were perfect, why bother with all that gasoline? If one wishes to go farther than 15 miles in a day by motor-car, one must either be mad – or should simply take the steam-train.”
Some people just refuse to acknowledge that the future is here, and it looks an awful lot like – a Prius.
By the way. Katie? My 2005 Prius, at 48,200 miles, obtained the same MPG as it did when it was first broken in. No reduction in MPG.
I DID consistently notice about a 5% to 10% reduction in MPG with the use of E10 fuel (10% ethanol, with a 30% corn-cob to fuel efficiency). Thus, I have become very anti-ethanol, especially since the price of corn (the staple food) in Mexico has doubled due to this ethanol insanity.
BTW, every single car I’ve had since 1979, and tried E10 in, obtained 25% to 5% less MPG compared to pure gasoline.
Thankfully, I live in an area which does not mandate 10% ethanol.
When my wife & I go through Minnesota next year, on our way to Banff/Lake Louise/Athabasca Ice Fields, I’m going to fill up my tank in Wisconsin and skip buying anything at all in Minnesota, eh?
10% ethanol is mandated by state law in every gallon of gasoline in the state of Minnesota. But then, these people once elected a “wrasler” for governator, didn’t they?
“Hybrid cars pose hazard for blind people…”
Add a bicycle bell?
Glenn126, FYI, you can’t win. Wisconsin gas tax is $.10/gal higher than Minnesota.
And only about 36% of our usually solid citizens elected that wrassler. The rest of us voted for someone (anyone!) else and I think that the wrassler’s 36% learned a valuable lesson.
Thanks for the tip, KixStart. Guess I’ll have to fill up my tank “in da U.P, eh?” (I’m allowed to make jokes – I’m a Yooper, from my childhood, anyway) instead of filling up in Wisconsin or Minnesota.
Whether we take the Prius and a tent, or the Sonata and our pop-up, either way I should be able to make North Dakota before having to spend any money on gas.
Should be a trip of a life-time. My wife wants to see the Athabasca ice fields (a glacier) before it melts…. and so do I.
I think you guys lining up against others over how much resources one should be allowed to use are all wet. There is no argument there at all.
Either, you are for free markets or you are not. Mr. Hates trees may not have been convincing, but he is correct. The best way to conserve a resource is still the free market, PERIOD. Nothing was ever used up that was owned, only shared resources are ever exhausted without theft.
I am constantly dumbfounded by the folks who want others to limit their energy use but will not come out for rationing or taxation. Instead, they seem to want to limit vehicle choice as this can somehow be construed as not being against liberty, justice, and private property. IT CAN’T.
Some people will always get to use more resources. The only question is whether the market will decide who does, or government will decide who does.
Being a vet, I can assure you that government deciding is not a green choice. Please feel free to take a tour of former eastern block countries as I suspect the mess is still there. Please look into the government’s use of your resources, its also a mess. They can’t even account for most of it. Private property may not be fair, but it’s more fair than anything else ever tried.
If you believe that it is in this nations’ interest, and make a good case for it, then get the taxes on energy raised. Be willing to accept the consequences. Government interference has done a job on GM, which is why we are having this discussion in the first place.
PS Stop comparing gas prices after tax. Those numbers are meaningless. Gasoline is insanely cheap pre tax.
In fall ’06, Saturn introduced the belt-assist (BAS) or “mild hybrid” Saturn Vue. While GM’s BAS system allowed the domestic automaker to crow that it was, finally, in the hybrid business, sales are… unknown. [GM is the only automaker that doesn’t to break out hybrid sales numbers.]
Hybridcars.com has the numbers, and they are so pathetic it’s no wonder GM wants to bury them.
http://www.hybridcars.com/market-dashboard/aug07-us-sales.html
GM sold 142 Saturn Vue Hybrids and 103 Saturn Aura Hybrids in August. That’s it.
For contrast, Toyota sold 14,055 Priuses, 4,284 Camry Hybrids, 378 Highlander Hybrids, 1,172 Lexus RX400hs, 267 Lexus 600hLs, and 130 Lexus GS450hs during the same time period. Toyota has 80% of the hybrid market in the US; GM has 1%.
Thanks, Geoptf. At least that beats BLS’ numbers.
Paul Niedermeyer,
The Prius at one point was also a technically ambitious product that cost too much money. I fail to see why you are criticizing GM for going down this path. At this point the only credible critism is that they are late to market (just as almost every other auto maker other than Toyota and Honda!). Could you please provide the source for your statement about Daimler, Chrysler and BMW not using the two-mode in any of their vehicles.
As I’m sure you have probably heard, the two-mode Tahoe will get 21 MPG in the city. The same as a 4 cylinder Toyota Camry, a vehicle that weighs almost 2000 lbs less than the Tahoe! This is not some laughable attempt at a hybrid as some have proclaimed. It makes sense putting this in the higher profit margin vehicles first and then making it available in smaller vehicles later when economies of scale are established. It won’t be a $10k system when it gets to the Malibu.
Overall, a very disapointing editorial and not up to the standards of this site. It seems you have condenmed GMs hybrid systems even before their introduction. It will be quite an accomplishment if GMs FIRST generation Volt is only as good as a Toyota’s THIRD generation Prius. The hybrid market is expanding and there is room for other players. As well, it is typical for GM to put out lower projections before a product launches so I would bet the 50mpg figure will be exceeded. When they first started talking about the two-mode SUVs the claim was that they would get 25% better mileage in the city. Now, just before launch, they will get 50% better mileage in the city. Save your comparisons until you have all the data please and write about what you can intelligently write about: “Toyota will be selling 150k similarly-efficient Prii for a mere $20k, and making a tidy profit doing so.” Maybe you could share the inside information you obviously received on what profit Toyota would earn on an extensively revised Gen3 hybrid system. The fact is that you have absolutely no idea what their financial position would be on each Prius thereby making your comment rediculous and irresponsible.
One more point. GM should milk all the publicity they can from the Volt. Toyota is the master of that tactic and it has paid off for them. Toyota is seen as the ECO darling even though Honda is truely the greenest large volume car maker.
Event Horizon, your forgetting that GM has been implicated in the torture of small kittens, and even if Toyota produced a zero MPG Oil burner that spewed black smoke, had tires made of cheetas, and clubbed baby seals as it drove along while blasting Rebel marching songs and an image of Hitler on the hood, it would be ok because its a Toyota.
Re Landcrusher…
I am constantly dumbfounded by the folks who want others to limit their energy use but will not come out for rationing or taxation.
Well said. Dropping the enviro’s arguments for a second, a case can be made that gas taxes are too LOW to adequately maintain roads.
I really love certain Marx inspired municipalities in Florida that ban lawn watering – and pay employees to check on people. If you want to discourage the use of a scarce resource, RAISE THE F***!!*#! PRICE.
ihatetrees:
I feel you pain. We have the same thing out in Texas every summer, save this one, as it rained solid until mid July.
Glenn126, if you truly loved the enviroment, you wouldn’t drive to go look at some ice, you’d ride a bike.
As of yet, last time I checked, almost without exception, wasting resources was only outside of God’s law, and you don’t have to obey that law if you don’t want to. Man’s laws don’t cover it directly – yet.
Glenn126 –
A government that tried to manage resource allocation was the greatest threat that this country faced in the last 50 years. And the results of that empire’s efforts are – as others have pointed out – hardly what one would consider environmentally friendly. Weird to hear this kind of stuff from a vet… (BTW – thank you for your service)
To add to the debate about free markets and resource management. I often find it funny that here in europe we have more efficient and small cars due to taxes in an essentially free market system. In the US CAFE regulations try to mandate an average fleet fuel economy, but all that results in are the biggest passenger cars and trucks in the world.
People cry out for higher efficiencies and less polution, but as long as other people do it for them. Sure free markets are the ideal way to adapt to problems, but the markets need to be regulated in a way that is equitable and so people can live as a community (ie polution and emmissions regulations, passenger safety… etc). In fact in terms of automobiles a “free” market is just an illusion. You can’t buy what you want it has to be DOT approved.
As for the Prius, that is an example of a free market bet that is turning out to be quite visionary. A govt. can’t mandate buying one, but it can set the conditions so that more innovative technologies are used to confront real problems (peak oil, global warming). And this doesn’t come from the market, it comes from democracy.
Landcrusher: I am constantly dumbfounded by the folks who want others to limit their energy use but will not come out for rationing or taxation. Instead, they seem to want to limit vehicle choice as this can somehow be construed as not being against liberty, justice, and private property. IT CAN’T.
It seems to me that this is the main prevailing thought in our world today. From Hollywood to the Capital, its all the same retoric. “I want to solve (insert flavor of the week problem here). We need to put more money to solving said problem. But not my money.”
Event Horizon:
Mercedes and BMW are cooperating on a simpler/cheaper partial hybrid system, as was shown on the F700 concept. The two mode is too expensive to pair with an expensive diesel engine. The two-mode will be used on the Chrysler Durango/Aspen twins, probably at very low volumes. Perhaps Mercedes/BMW will use them for some US bound vehicles, but it’s iffy. Multiple media sources.
I’m not dissing the two-mode system; its impressive, as is the Volt. But they’re expensive, substantially more than Toyota’s HSD. What I’m getting at in the editorial is GM’s effort to leapfrog Toyota with hybrid technology, with the result that their systems (two-mode, Volt) risk end up being too expensive for the marketplace to embrace in meaningful volumes. And if the volumes are too low, profitablity is essentially out of the question.
That’s the problem GM faces. And it has compounded the problem by developing three completely different hybrid systems. All of Toyota’s hybrids are variants of the HSD, which allows more component sharing and lower development costs.
Toyota has stated the Prius is profitable, and expects all its hybrids to have the same profit margin as their conventional cars. I can’t easily verify that, but if you look at Toyota’s industry leading profit margin (9.6%), their word is good enough for me.
GM’s Lutz has as much as admitted that their hybrids have serious cost/profit issues. That’s also good enough for me.
ret – nowhere will you see me write that I want the “gummint” to run things at all. I’m a Constitutionalist, fastest growing “3rd party” in the nation. I don’t think you can get much more anti-socialist/anti-communist that that. See for yourself. http://www.constitutionparty.com
I just think that if we get “Gored” by another socialistic Congress and Administration (no matter which of the two major parties’ labels are in place), we’ll all end up having further limits placed on all manner of our freedoms to choose. I also think this is 99% likely, compared to the miracle of having the nation wake up and stop the rot, by voting in the Constitution Party.
I “personally” abhor waste – but as I’ve mentioned, I stood with an M-16 guarding a B-52 base (with nuke bombs) during the cold war in order to defend everyone’s right to have the freedom to choose how to live in this great country, and that includes buying SUV’s and huge McMansions – even as much as I dislike them both.
But my perspective is not that of a worldling, but that of a Christian man who understands what God speaks of when He speaks of good stewardship. I don’t expect everyone to adhere to the standards I try to adhere to.
However, this does not preclude me from trying to educate friends and fellow car-guys and gals as to what I perceive as a “better way.”
Paul, I think you’ve made an excellent case for the idea that GM should join Ford in cross-licensing the Hybrid Synergy Drive – instead of continuing along the “NIH” syndrome (“Not Invented Here!”)
Interestingly, the post-mortems of Packard sometimes bring up the fact that instead of spending millions developing their own Ultramatic automatic transmission over a decade and a half, Packard would have been wiser to follow Lincoln’s counsel and purchase Hydra-Matics from GM… perhaps later purchasing the even better Torqueflite automatics from Chrysler (in exchange for Packard’s advanced lock-up torque convertor tecnology).
It’s interesting to see history repeat itself, and of course, it’s a well known statement to say “those who do not learn from history, are doomed to repeat it.”
virages :
October 4th, 2007 at 11:53 am
To add to the debate about free markets and resource management. I often find it funny that here in europe we have more efficient and small cars due to taxes in an essentially free market system. In the US CAFE regulations try to mandate an average fleet fuel economy, but all that results in are the biggest passenger cars and trucks in the world.
Large cars in America are likely due to long straight interstates, cheap gas, drag racing and urban sprawl rather than CAFE regulations. In addition, interstates are packed with big rigs, and driving in amongst them with a miata is not always a comfortable feeling.
That said, I think a healthy gas tax might speed up the acceptance of small cars.
That said, I think a healthy gas tax might speed up the acceptance of small cars.
Ya know, I was floored when I read a legislature wanted to support a War tax. Then I read this, and I realize…who am I kidding?
We may all get slammed with “hidden taxes” very soon, with the real inflation rate running at 14% and “official” inflation rate at what, 5%? This means a 9% pay reduction per year, if this compounds, well….. that’s a 25% haircut on pay over 3 years, a 38% haircut over 5 years, a 61% haircut in a decade.
Gee after the first couple of years, do you think we’ll start to notice????
This, on top of the fact that the alternate minimum tax is hiding around the corner, and with even nominal 5% pay raises every year, even though they won’t keep up with inflation, they’ll bring more and more people into higher tax brackets – and into the alternate minimum tax.
No fear, though, the social security system is – oh, wait. Never mind.
Hi Virtual Insanity,
I don’t know if you were joking or what about your comment ‘if you really loved the environment you’d give up on an ICE and ride a bike’ but I gotta tell you, a bike is not always practical.
If you read any of my comments you might realize I live in northwestern Michigan. Not conducive to riding a bike, oh, about 4-6 months of the year.
Plus I’m “lucky” enough to live in an area where a lot of rich yuppies move to semi-retire and retire, so housing is the most expensive in Michigan – even still with our sucky economy – oh yeah, we’re “blessed” with the highest gas prices too – AND the lowest wages, in a depressed state. My wife could make 60% to 80% more 150 miles south of here in Grand Rapids (she’s an RN) for example, and make double her Traverse City wages in in most any other locale in the USA.
So what this translates into is that – in order to live here in my own home town, we built a new house 15 miles out of town in 1999, as it is literally all we can afford. House prices increase a LOT as you get closer to Traverse City, and houses are older, less well insulated and way less efficient. I’m 50 years old, so riding 30 miles a day on a bike on roads filled with imbiciles endangering my life while I’m just DRIVING doesn’t really sound feasible for biking even for summer months, now does it? Somehow I don’t think my wife would care to bike 30 miles a day, either. As it is, she often gets into work at 7:15 a.m. It’s tough enough getting up at 6 a.m. every day, never mind 4 a.m.
Example: just this morning, in 15 seconds, as I came down the hill into Traverse City on US31 to turn right onto South Airport, some (^&*$%^ imbicile in a white Ford SUV simply drove out from the right, turning straight in front of us without stopping at the side road. So I “treated” him/her to some retinal damage in the rearview mirror while I invoked the brake assist program on the Prius, all the while listening to my wife gasping, flailing her arms and ready to scream. We went from 45 to about 20 and were grateful that the usual tailgater wasn’t present at that moment.
Immediately after this idiot did this, he/she continue on at about 20 mph, turned right (on a red light – but without stopping), and instead of pulling into the correct, right lane of a 4 lane road, he/she went into the leftmost lane – straight in front of a white Buick who was coming straight through the intersection at about 50-55 mph. More severe braking and no doubt, more swearing. We stopped at the red light (wow, imagine that, actually obeying the rules of the road…), turned into the (correct, right) lane while turning right (not in front of anyone, I might add), proceeded at the speed limit (45) and went on to drop off my wife, whilst watching this imbicile in the white Ford SUV speed away at 10 over the limit.
So, in about 15 seconds, one driver in a white Ford SUV did half a dozen traffic infractions. And I didn’t even talk about how tailgating is rampant here…. and what I call the “inattentive weaving talkers” – those 20-30% of all drivers in this area who can’t seem to stay off the cell phone CONTINUALLY while sort-of-vaguely aiming their cars/vans/SUVs/trucks along the road.
And you expect me to bike to work in these conditions?! I, um, don’t think so…. I’m not feeling suicidal or having a death-wish, thanks.
I’m doing the best I can with a Prius, and have to put THAT on a 6 year car payment as it is.
glenn126:
Heh. Perhaps we should start a “Northwestern Michigan Biker Death Watch” series.
Serial hybrids are the next step after parallel hybrids, until full day range (300 or 400 miles) or quick charge (less than 30 minutes) electrics are here. The enormous complexity, weight and engine operating range advantages of a serial hybrid are obvious, if you are capable of removing your “Toyota is GOD” blinders. Just the weight and complexity advantages of no transmission and no driveline whatsoever, just eclectic motors at 2 or 4 wheels are HUGE. In addition, from everything I’ve read, the ability of the small generator ICE in a serial hybrid to run in just 1 high load RPM range will more than offset the inefficiencies inherent in the generator.
Toyota is stuck with a highly developed parallel system, they bet on the less efficient, FAR more complex horse, so they have decided to continue to ride it for now.
Glenn126, the human race survived for (insert time period of your choosing based on religious/historical beliefs here) without cars or trucks or even any form of mechanical movement beyond their own two legs. Eventually they started using animals for transport.
So, I continue to hold that if you really did love the enviroment, you would hike or use a horse or bike to go look at frozen water. Hiking would be best, because you could stay of the physical road portion and to the side. It would also be healthy for you.
Glenn,
The Ford parallel hybrid system is NOT just a licensed version of Toyota’s. Ford did license some patents from Toyota to avoid any potential litigation, and Toyota has actually licensed a few from Ford for the same reason. But, Ford’s hybrid system is their own, developed in-house by Ford.
The outright lie that Ford’s hybrid system is just a licensed Toyota system is very persistent. Now Nissan’s hybrid system is literally Toyota’s system, bought lock stock and barrel from Toyota.
By the way, Ford is looking at switching from the Toyota style planetary gear CVT in their current parallel hybrids, to GM’s light duty 2-mode that will be used in the full hybrid Vue. Ford is apparently doing this because the GM 2-mode using an extra electric motor is more efficient than the current Toyota/Ford setup using a planetary type CVT.
I stand corrected, airglow, and thanks. I knew that Ford hired in Aisan to manufacture their hybrid drive system (“transmission”) for these vehicles, and that Aisan made the 1st Generation Prius “transmission” so incorrectly figured that there was an obvious connection/arrangement.
However, I did know that Toyota did buy some Ford patents and vice versa. Not sure how I didn’t piece the entire story together in my head, tho.
Virtual Insanity, sure enough you are right, for most of humanity’s history, animals were used for transportation.
And in my grandfather’s younger days, a mere century ago, literally most people in the world never went beyond 5 miles from their homes, either, even including Americans.
Howcomizit that you use a computer if it uses modern energy, Virtual Insanity? That power station fouls the air, surely. Just curious…
Interestingly, 100 years ago it was the automobile which was going to (and did) clean up (most) cities, and stopped a huge health contagon. Horse dung by the tens of thousands of TONS was spread throughout all cities, villages and towns; would dry up, get pulverized by other traffic / horses, and would get blown in the wind / breathed in….
Thats the thing, I don’t claim to be an enviromentlist. I like fast cars that get crap miliage. I like using tons of energy to make my life easier. I love getting on the internet, over heating my food with a microwave, and generally make a nuisance of myself to the enviroment.
Therefore, I have no illusions of trying to save anything. I drive fast, I use a bunch of fuel, I keep my computer on 24/7, and I eat dead animals. And I am 100% happy.
Airglow: “Toyota is stuck with a highly developed parallel system…”
Yeah, poor Toyota… stuck with a highly developed system with a 5-year head start over GM on wringing out the costs and optimizing the efficiency and reliability. They’ve got us surrounded, the poor bastards.
I agree, that Volt serial concept seems much simpler, being essentially a subset of the parts necessary to build a Prius. But what makes you think Toyota couldn’t do that, if they wanted to?
Five year head start (for Toyota’s hybrid system)?
How about an 11 year head start as of right now, and when exactly in the future is the Volt supposed to come out?
I’d say Toyota have more like a 13 to 15 year head start. Plus the experience of having hundreds of thousands of cars on the roads in real customer use, not having to “lease” the super-expensive battery packs, either.
Sometimes “simpler” means “less efficient”. Witness the IMA system that Honda uses, which obtains about (on average) 5 mpg LESS for a compact Civic (with 10 cubic foot trunk – no folding rear seats) vs a mid-sized Prius – with 16 cubic foot trunk area (more if the folding rear seat is flipped down).
Actually I rather like the Honda Civic IMA, and contemplated getting a left-over 2007 as I awaited my 2008 Prius – the Prius arrived and so I went with it. Despite an unknown (between about $700 to possibly zero) tax reduction on the Prius vs. $2100 on the left-over ’07 Honda, and despite the lower price for the Civic.
maybe some one said this but until the usa upgrades its electrical grid -mass plug in cars wont work-theres rolling brown-outs now when it gets hot in Cali,hows it going to keep up with cars charging and ac running in everyones house over night? they will have to build more coal fired power plants or nuke plants and if your going to do that ,ya might as well go hydrogen- or diesel hybrid. ethanol and pure electric cars will hurt the environment as much or more,and raise the price of grain and electricity- which basically raises the price of every thing. only good thing about is we don’t have too buy oil from crazy south american, african and middle east governments .
The cars can be charged at night, when there’s lots of spare capacity (most places). This doesn’t become a problem until *many* electric cars are sold.
Have faith in your local electrical utility. They will find a way to make money off you.