October was a tricky month with few treats for the auto industry. Overall, total U.S. sales just about broke even, ending-up with a 1.2 percent increase over October of last year. Year-to-date (YTD) sales sank 2.5 percent. Ford and Chrysler were the biggest losers; both domestic automaker suffered big decreases from the month last year and continuing to drop in the annual numbers. Here's how our bellwether models finished the month.
Passenger Cars
After a brief peak in August, Impala sales have been edging down, with a 1.6 per cent decrease for the month. However, thanks to robust spring sales, it's still up 12.6 percent YTD over 2006. Chrysler 300 sales have almost flatlined, sinking 15.2 percent below October last year. Annual sales show the same trend, with a 15 per cent decline YTD. The Fusion remains one of the few bright stars in Ford's fading firmament. It's up 13.1 per cent for the month and 2.3 per cent on the year. Toyota's stalwart Camry faltered a bit in October, dropping 0.2 percent from last October; for the year, though, it's up 6.4 per cent.
Pickup Trucks
It looks like pickups are slowing down. With only moderate sales incentives, Chevy's Silverado finished the month seven per cent lower than last year, down 2.4 per cent YTD. Even with substantial cash on the hood, the hoary Dodge Ram fell 12.5 per cent for the month, and 0.6 percent for the year. Ford's F-series also had another bad month, ending 7.5 per cent below last year; year to date they lost 12.5 per cent. The Toyota Tundra remains much more popular than its [relatively] diminutive predecessor. Sales rose 77.9 per cent for month and ascended by 59.8 per cent for the year.
Truck-Based SUVs
Chevy's Tahoe bucked the downward trend for large SUVs with a 31.9 per cent increase over last October. It's down 5.4 per cent for the year, but that's nothing compared with Durango. Sales pf the once-popular Dodge SUV fell 66.5 per cent for the month, and 34 per cent on the year. The Ford Explorer was somewhat better off with "just" a 18.3 per cent decline for the month, and a 23.8 per cent drop YTD. Toyota's 4Runner showed a surprising 15.3 per cent jump over last October, but total sales were down 14.5 per cent from last year.
CUVs
Even though CUVs are this year's big thing, the Chevy Equinox was down 19 per cent from last October, down 21 per cent for the year. Chrysler's doomed Pacifica showed similar declines: down 12.5 per cent for the month and 28.1 per cent on the year. The Escape was another bright spot in Ford's otherwise dismal world, with a 26.8 per cent increase over last October, and a jump of 5.5 per cent over last year. The Toyota RAV-4 fared even better. Sales were up 31.2 per cent for the month and 15.6 per cent on the year.
New Models
The Acadia remains the most popular of the Lambda triplets with 100 more sales in October than September. GMC's shifted 59K Acadias this year. Ford's Edge sold 3.5K more units over September, with 103.8K sold YTD. The worst of the TTAC's "Ten Worst"– the Jeep Compass— dropped 600 units from last month. Despite the hype, Jeep's managed to move 33.5K Compass this year.
Total Sales
October is traditionally a low sales month, as the old model year winds down and the new one gets underway. Nonetheless, GM managed to finish the month 3.4 per cent ahead of last October. However, for the year to date, they're down 5.7 per cent. Chrysler has been below their 2006 sales line since June. For October, they finished 8.9 percent below last October; that's down 8.9 total for the year. Strong showings from Focus, Escape and Edge couldn't offset Ford's dependence on truck sales. Total sales fell 9.3 per cent below last month, and 13 per cent year to date. Toyota continued their seemingly inexorable climb up the sales charts– up 4.5 per cent from last month, up 3.9 from last year.
The Future
The times they are a-changing. Will the new UAW contracts reinvigorate The Big 2.8? Will Chrysler's slice its way to a sustainable product portfolio? Will the Chevy Malibu be the hit Bob Lutz thinks it will, and/or will it cannibalize Impala sales? Is Ford's redesign of the F-Series too little too late? Will the mortgage crisis and other macro-economic issues kneecap the US or world automotive industry? As Bette Davis might say, "Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy ride."
Last paragraph says it all,just add gas price into the mix.
Even with our soaring loonie wer’e back to a buck a litre.
Roughly 3.80 US a gallon?Full size truck sales,who knows?
It doesn’t look good for Ford. They haven’t even managed to stem the market share loss like GM have. And with the low “pop” the Fusion and NA Focus have been getting, I can’t see it getting any better.
It might time to break out the big guns and import the Euro Focus to NA at a loss to build up a good reputation for Ford (again, for the record, you’re not missing out on much) and let the public decide on which is better. The only snag with that idea is that, it could cannibalize sales from Volvo’s C30, but this could be a moot point if Ford are serious about cutting them loose.
In fact, maybe importing the Euro Mondeo (which does look quirky) could be a good idea. Ford really need to overhaul their image to become more “cutting edge” and (dare I say it?) fashionable?
GM seem to be turning a corner now. Admittedly, Rabid Rick’s turnaround was longer than the flaming I got for my personal feelings for Ford, but now it seems to be bearing fruit. Who knows where they’ll be this time next year?
As always, Toyota and Honda, keep marching on with their “bland-mobiles”. It would behoove Toyota to bring the Euro Yaris and Auris from Europe and plaster a “Scion” brand on it. They really cute and funky cars. In fact, forget the Yaris, bring the Aygo over. That car has it all…..!
KatiePuckrik:
From what I can tell the US Yaris is decontented compared to what you folks get on the other side of the pond. The JDM Belta sedan is sold as the Yaris sedan here; the Yaris 5-door hatch is sold as is in Canada, but has been spiffed up to become Scion xD in the States (and JDM 2nd gen “ist”). The xD also gets instruments in front of the driver and the 1.8/128hp.
The Auris’ counterpart here is the just-introduced Matrix, also a 5 door hatch, IRS only available on the top model, and no 3.5 V6 (JDM Blade’s hot engine option).
One of my friends was appalled at Toyota naming vehicles after Hollywood movie franchises – Highlander, Matrix, Blade. He’s still waiting for the Gladiator.
starlightmica,
I’d never noticed about Toyota’s names and Hollywood films!
The Aygo would blitz the US, I feel. It’s cute and funky and economical. Plus they could export from where they are made (Czech Republic) and still make a profit. A real city car.
Sales pf the once-popular Dodge SUV fell 66.5 per cent for the month, and 34 per cent on the year
Chrysler, for God’s sake, spike this model. You are just embarassing yourself. They dropped four models, but there’s room for plenty more cuts.
GM, maybe showing signs of life. Hopefully, the Malibu will be a hit and NOT cannibalize the Imp.
The Fusion is doing ok, but should be doing better. But Ford really needs more fresh produce (that does not include another limited edition Mustang).
The only thing that keeps Ford from producing world-class cars is the fear of cannibalizing other Fords. There is no reason that the Escape and the Fusion shouldn’t have the big 3.5L V6 like their Toyota counterparts have (RAV4 and Camry).
Oh, yeah, except that putting the big V6 in these cars would cannibalize the sales of other Ford products (Explorer and MKZ). Same goes for the Ranger–keep it crappy so that it doesn’t cannibalize the F150s. Sheesh.
It’s a tear-jerking shame that Ford makes these decisions. Just build the best damn car you can. Period.
I don’t see how selling <6K Fusions is a bright spot. Also, I was curious to see what was/wasn’t happening with the Taurus. In any case Ford will need to sell millions of Edges and Fusions to replace the profit lost by the decline of their Truck and SUV sales.
Also, the 3.5L V6 is no peach. I drove it in the MKZ and found it to be no different than the 3.0 duratec other than the more pleasing and muted exhaust note.
Speaking of the Taurus, I took another look at the numbers and Ford reported 20,750 fleet-only sales for Taurus for October 06. So they are flat for this October vs. last year when you cut out the Fleet Darling.
Also, what isn’t being said is that Ford has reported that they have stabilized at 13% ‘retail market’ share (which I assume is sales to non-fleet customers.) True or not, I see that as the more important metric…
Are they up yet? No. But if they replaced half of the old Taurus fleet sales with retail sales of say, the Edge or Fusion, then I am seeing this as a ‘glass half full’ situation for Ford.
Anyone have an idea what the fleet sales situation is for October?
Ford’s glass isn’t half full. In fact they haven’t even got a glass. If they replace fleet Taurus sales with retail Taurus sales they are still replacing (not completely even) truck and SUV sales with little to negative profit car sales. Plus the SUVs and trucks they do sell are getting less profitable. Plus, most of the new models, save the F150, Flex, and B car are out already. Its gonna be a long 5-15 years before the next product cycle.
“Will the Chevy Malibu be the hit Bob Lutz thinks it will, and/or will it cannibalize Impala sales?”
The New Malibu is highly unlikely to gain significant market share for GM in the core family sedan market, so I think the answer to those questions is no and yes, respectively.
jthorner “The New Malibu is highly unlikely to gain significant market share for GM in the core family sedan market, so I think the answer to those questions is no and yes, respectively”
What exactly gives you this evidence? Everything I’ve read about the car says it is great, and a huge improvement, but your expert opinion is that it won’t gain anything but impala sales?
guyincognito, I can certainly see your point. But the article is about raw numbers so I am looking at it from the standpoint that the difference between ’06 & ’07 is that the Fleet Taurus and Freestar were cut, while the Edge & new Escape was brought on line, which are both mostly retail vehicles.
You can look at the numbers and interpret them a few different ways. My point is that they show me that they are replacing the 23,000 fleet-only 2006 Taurus & Freestar sales lost with 14,000 Edges plus the additional 4,500 Escapes, Fusions, etc. in 2007 increases.
Having said that, I agree that the picture is not improving enough. But I do think the picture is a little brighter if you are cutting out the cancerous fleet sales and replacing them with models that are better retail performers, as they appear to be doing.
RLJ676: What exactly gives you this evidence? Everything I’ve read about the car says it is great, and a huge improvement, but your expert opinion is that it won’t gain anything but impala sales?
The old Malibu was selling around one half of its output to fleet customers.
If GM really wants to reduce fleet sales of the new Malibu while scoring higher sales, then the new one must retain all of the previous generation’s retail sales, and score a 50 percent gain on top of that. Highly unlikely, no matter how good the car is, given the number of very good entries in a competitive market segment.
Plus, having seen the car in the Chevy showroom, all that I can say is that if given the choice between the Malibu and the Impala, I would take the Malibu in a heartbeat. Especially if the Impala is priced higher than the Malibu. The new Malibu makes the Impala look even older than it really is.
A bumpy ride/night- great film analogy. Young ambitious upstart Toyota/Honda overtaking it’s older but faded star Detroit. All about Greed instead of All about Eve?
geeber “If GM really wants to reduce fleet sales of the new Malibu while scoring higher sales, then the new one must retain all of the previous generation’s retail sales, and score a 50 percent gain on top of that. Highly unlikely, no matter how good the car is, given the number of very good entries in a competitive market segment”
I guess that depends on definition of “hit.” To me a signifigant increase in retail sales will be a hit, not necessarily surpassing the total number including fleet before. Fleet sales keep factories moving and generate revenue, but they do little in the way of profit, and they are negative towards the consumer in every way. I basically leave them out of the equation for a hit or not.
Frank,
It would be enlightening to focus more on retail sales instead of total sales each month.
I don’t know if you have those data available.
“What exactly gives you this evidence? Everything I’ve read about the car says it is great, and a huge improvement, but your expert opinion is that it won’t gain anything but impala sales?”
First bit of evidence: Saturn Aura. It is by all reports a competent sedan, but it isn’t putting a dent in Camry or Accord sales. The Malibu is it’s kissing cousin.
Second bit: The Fusion Trio, also a nice set of offerings and also not selling enough to put a dent in the leaders. In fact, Fusion + Five Hundred didn’t even replace Taurus volumes. You might recall that the Taurus was intentionally replaced by these two vehicles.
Third bit of evidence: The current generation Malibu was lauded as one which finally was taking the fight to the class leaders when it came out. Built on the same platform as the Saab 9-3 and an Opel … world class, European tuned, etc. etc. etc. Innovative Maxx configuration available with the best of a sedan, hatchback and wagon all in one tidy package. But guess what, it quickly became a rental machine and a sales disappointment.
And of course let us not forget the Oldsmobile Alero and Pontiac G6, two more once hot new products which were finally going to give the leaders fits. Going back further, the Vega and Pinto were supposed to be the cars which showed the imports how it was supposed to be done.
In the US mid-sized sedan today Camry and Accord are the leaders and the rest of the pack fights for what is left. It is not enough to unseat long established leaders to simply offer finally competitive vehicles. There is far more evidence pointing towards the 2008 Malibu disappointing than there is pointing to it being a run away best seller.
GM’s core customers are repeat customers, hence my view that Impala sales will suffer more from the new ‘bu than will Camry sales. The 2008 Accord is also an all new design and all it needs to do is to sustain well established momentum. Momentum is built over time and requires a dogged persistence to generate and sustain.
Marketing wise the message GM and Ford are getting out by saying Wow, look, our newest sedans are just as good as a Camry or Accord is dumb. What they are doing is to affirm in the populations mind that Accord and Camry are the leaders and thus are safe choices. Have you noticed that the Ford and Saturn marketing campaigns to put the competition’s cars on their lots have been quickly euthanized?
The US companies cannot recover momentum by using me-too design and marketing strategies.
For us Nissan fans:
Altima up 41.9% oct vs oct and up 26.1% on the year to 239,800 units. It’s not clear how many hybrids were sold from that but in october out of 21000 or so cars sold 927 were hybrids.
Titan was down 12.6% and down 9.7% on the year. Only 55,960 sold YTD
Frontier is down 17% on the year with a nearly identical 55,696 sold YTD.
Nissan News
a simple game. you design and engineer a car as good as you can then sell it. it could be any x company. nissan. mazda. bmw. but it could never be an american company.simple.
they don`t design and engineer cars. not even mentioning as good as possible. they always turn their rubbernecks towards affiliates, global parts bin or `partners`. they concoct masterplans of importing mondeo, re-americanizing focus, rebadging opel or daewoo. bu they never ever swear to a bible ` Let`s build the car ourselves!! they avoid the basic job no. 1 in car business- building cars themselves! this way they avoid CUSTOMERS.
A bimmer client knows that opening a hood there will gurgla bavarian built engine, pure teutonic fossilburner, unlike opening a lincoln you expect a mazda build negine with astamped ford logo on the valve cover. the only ford truck sales that went up were mazda tribute, rebadged as fords.
No matter how long you twitch in agony avoiding in-house physical engineering and designing , you will drop forever by using Import parts. I swear to God! Starting Fair Game is the only solution.
Frank-I second EJ’s motion for more focus on the retail sales numbers.
I know in Aug GM pumped up the fleet or “commercial” numbers to get positive overall numbers. Has this been the case in Sep & Oct? Looks probable but I haven’t seen a break down on it. Or is GM suddenly tight lipped on the percentages?
Toyota’s flat run seems pretty straight forward, starting in August their overall incentives dived and stayed down. Lower incentives=flat sales.
They are apparently doing this on purpose.
Opinion on new ‘BU-it will do pretty well, take some import sales and simply gut the remaining Impala and G6 retail.
It would be enlightening to focus more on retail sales instead of total sales each month.
I don’t have access to those figures.
Anyone else see that the new Chevrolet Malibu is being offered by a couple of dealers on EBAY — at list (!) $28k+ change!
How can GM justify that? And who would take a chance on that car at that price?
/p
So Ford’s future is to veg off of someone’s else’s platforms?
How long can they live off of Mazda and Volvo platforms?
What is Ford NA actually doing? More Mustangs and F150’s?
How long can Ford fool the American people with Mazda and Volvo platforms as their own?
kjc- exactly! exactly!
Do you think anyone other than a few gearheads know or really care that some Ford cars are derived off of modified platforms from Mazda and Volvo ?
I didn’t think so.
Besides—given the global nature of the business and their weak financial straits they would be idiots not to take advantage of all current assets they own.
Now—that said—-do I wish Ford would better refine their organic platforms (Mustang)and develop new ones. Absolutely.