What a difference a month makes. The euphoria created by October's U.S. sales gains ended abruptly; November numbers fell like autumn leaves. Total light vehicle sales sank 1.6 percent compared to November last year, down 3.4 percent year-to-date (YTD). U.S. light truck sales did a November nose-dive, down 6.8 percent if you include crossovers, down 15.5 percent if you don't. In this inhospitable climate, Toyota sales shot by Chevrolet for the month, leaving Ford in the dust. While Chevy should end the year in the number two slot, Ford's stuck at number three, accounting for just 13 percent of the market. And once again, The Big 2.8's combined market share fell below fifty percent. So, it was more of the same, only more so.
Passenger Cars
Chevrolet Impala sales sank 2.5 percent compared to November of 2006, tumbling below November 2005's total. On the positive side, they're cruising on the big Mo, up 11.2 percent YTD. After four consecutive months of diminishing sales, Chrysler 300 sales finally rose 6.9 percent. YTD. In the reverse of the Impala, 300 sales are down 13.1 percent YTD. The Ford Fusion made a strong showing, ending the month up a whopping 38.8 percent over last November, a 4.8 percent improvement for the year. The Toyota Camry continued its slow, steady growth, gaining 3.6 percent on the month and 6.3 percent YTD.
Pickup Trucks
Incentives or no, the collapsing U.S. housing market and the new gas price reality has whacked pickup truck sales, but good. Chevrolet's Silverado dropped 14.1 percent, down 3.3 percent YTD. The incentives king, the Dodge Ram, didn't fare quite as badly, dropping "only" 12 percent for the month. Ram sales are down 1.5 percent YTD. Ford's F-Series cash cow's still running dry. November sales were the second lowest since November 2005, down 11.7 percent. YTD, F-Series sales slumped 12.4 percent. The new Toyota Tundra racked-up a 42.2 percent increase over last November, up 58.3 percent YTD. Yes but– November Tundra sales were the lowest since April.
Truck-Based SUVs
Large SUV sales continue their slide backwards. After the best sales month in a year and a half (October), the Chevrolet Tahoe dropped 31 percent, its worst month since January of this year. Sales are down 7.7 percent YTD. The Dodge Durango had its best showing in three months, but still sank 46.3 percent on the month, 35.1 percent YTD. Ford's once-bestselling Explorer continues its seemingly endless downwards trajectory, finishing the month 18.8 percent below last year, down 23.5 percent YTD. Toyota's 4Runner dropped 17.5 percent from last November, 14.8 percent for the year.
CUVs
The Chevrolet Equinox is showing its age. Sales plummeted 32.6 percent from last November, down 21.8 percent YTD. The marked-for-death Pacifica ended the month 35.5 percent below last November's total, down 28.8 percent YTD. Ford's Escape continues to give The Blue Oval Boyz reason to live. Sales are up 22.3 percent from last year, 6.7 percent YTD. Toyota's RAV-4 dropped to its lowest level since February, but it's still 8.1 percent ahead of last November, up 15 percent YTD.
New Models
The GMC Acadia is still the Lambda king, accounting for 50 percent of the GM crossover platform's total sales. Acadia sales grew by 275 units in November. Ford Edge sales fell by 1500 units from October, but sales are still above the monthly average for the year. The Jeep Compass staunched a three-month wound, ending the month with 443 more sales than October.
Total Sales
As expected November was a cruel month for new car sales. GM 's sales were down 11 percent from last November, down 6.1 percent for the year. Thanks to fleet sales, Chrysler didn't fare quite as badly, but they're still down 2.1 percent for November, down 3.4 percent YTD. Ford had mixed results, showing a surprising 0.6 percent increase over last November. But they still have an annual deficit of 12.1 percent. Toyota finished in the black, barely– they were up from last November only 0.3 percent. They're still up 3.6 percent YTD but that number has dwindled little by little each month.
The Future
To end the year with an overall sales increases, Ford would require a major miracle. With big enough discounts, GM and Chrysler could conceivably finish on a high note– in sales if not profits. Toyota will do whatever it takes to make Tundra's sales projections, and end the year on the positive side of the sales leader. Whatever happens, there's bound to be a nasty New Year's hangover, as the carmakers either continue deep discounts or take it on the chin.
Not as surprising as some think.
I have been expecting this from GM, in August they cranked up the “commercial sales” (not fleet, no) and pretended it was real market revival. Retail slide haas probably been consistent.
Ford’s retail has been stable the last few months hasn’t it? Did they crank up fleet or did they finally catch up with their fleet reduction loop on year ago comparisons.
Toyota dropped incentives in August from approx 1200 per to sub 800 (IIRC). Is this still the case? If so, explains why they are flat.
Proactive vs reactive. Go figure.
Frank, as always, apprecciate the effort and charts. Time to track Camry, Accord, ‘BU?
Cheerio,
Bunter
I’ll be revising the vehicles tracked as I begin reporting the sales in 2008. I’ll add Honda’s offerings in each category (obviously, except for large pickups and SUVs). I’ll look at adding Malibu, but for now Impala remains GM’s “bread and butter” sedan.
A question for all: when I start tracking 2008 sales, do you want me to keep the 2005 figures and add a fourth sales line, or track current year and two previous years as I’m doing now?
Tracking current year and two prior years works for me.
I’d look at the top 5 carmarkers to get a fair comparison as they tend to have top sellers – this would include Honda / Nissan and potentially Hyundai.
Plus plugging these into a simple Excel spreadsheet and compiling a chart will give those who see results better than read them.
It may be too much to ask, especially with Chrysler. But is there any way to break out the fleet numbers?
Perhaps a monthly basis would be a bit much. But on a quarterly basis it may work. By the way, I got the driver’s side mirror fixed on that Eurovan.
judging from the upcoming de-cember month, I don`t have to be Einstein to predict further sales bleeding to the anemic big -3. An ongoing euthenizing detroit metal reality show, where the pain is your best friend,…………because it never leaves you. At least, ja-nuary sounds favorable for teutons.
Good work Frank.I’m a glass half full guy so the Impala news is great.These days it seems its all doom and gloom in the Canadian auto industry.
The Impala name in Oshawa gives new meaning to the words, bread and butter car.
Your format works great for me as it is.I see so many of these reports from other sources that become too analitical.
Looks like Scion needs some work. Down 10 percent for the year. Also looks like Lexus and BMW are killing Acura. Down 10% for the year. Not only is Escape giving Ford some good news but Edge is selling nearly the same monthly volume as Escape.Probably to those former Explorer owners.
How much effect will the strong Euro (weak dollar) have on the Luxury germans?
Good work Frank.I’m a glass half full guy so the Impala news is great.These days it seems its all doom and gloom in the Canadian auto industry.
Agreed, for a car that should be receiving a MCE, these sales are encouraging. However, it doesn’t bode well for those who are hoping to see the Impala move to Zeta anytime soon. My own thoughts are the best we can hope for is a limited edition run of Zeta Impala/Caprices that will run north of $40,000 (CDN) and will occupy the ground formerly held by the 1994-1996 Impala SS.
The Impala’s raw numbers look good (and for you CAW guys that may be enough), let’s keep in mind it was 55% fleet through June.
It would be interesting to know what percentage of the rest are “employee priced”. I don’t think this car is really very important in the retail market.
Haven’t the Fusion/Milan been down the last few months? I wonder if their CR reliability scores helped. Could be part of the up-turn. If so they earned it.
Steven Lang- I think those ARE Chyrsler’s fleet numbers ;^D.
But I agree, a report on fleet stats occassionally would be cool. Doesn’t Fleet-Central compile this stuff every 6 months? Especially a look at what some companies said they were going to do and what they did.
GM’s monthly chart looks like an EKG for someone that needs to see a specialist. That is not a game plan, it’s a series of spastic reactions by people without a compass to guide them.
Your charts are a story in themselves Frank.
Oh, I vote you include the ‘Bu. This is a big improvement in this model and it will be interesting to see how the public responds (or doesn’t).
Cheerio,
Bunter
Bunter 1 As one of those “CAW guys” Let me clarify our position.
We don’t care who buys the car.We do take great care in building the best car we can for the buyer.If a fleet buyer purchases 12,000 Impalas that keeps 3000 people at work for 2 weeks.
Believe me when I say the CAW people and the management people are happy to keep the line running.
I think ’08 will be a lot more telling for Acura. Their two main sedans, TL and TSX, both get a compete redo next year, their first in five years.
Ford’s results look slightly better than prior months this year because November 2006 was the last month for the old fleet-only Taurus (not the Five Hundred replacement, the older model), and they only sold 6k in Nov 06, as opposed to 20k or more in prior months. Which means thier numbers this year, prior to this month, looked worse than they really were, if you exclude the Taurus (which, being fleet-only, probably didn’t make Ford much money).
If November was bad December will be scary.In our market in Virginia it hasnt been this quiet since the employee pricing event ended.The majority of
our business is fleet and commercial with very little true retail walking in the door.Even Acadia
and Enclave are getting blown out in this atmosphere
I’m curous to know how the Matrix is doing agianst the Vibe?
Hi Mikey- No problem. Actually, your clarification sounds just like what I said to me.
Just so you know, it was not a “diss” in anyway, just a recognition of your point of view.
But you got me re-thinking it. Maybe you should care who buys them, an employer who is not making a profit on their product will cease to be an employer at some point. Four years ago I was laid off by a domestic heavy equip. manufacturer. Home, wife, new baby. I know what many at the Detroit 2.8 are facing. Intimately.
My point on the Imp is that some point to it as something GM has as a positive. I must question that, the real retail sales of that car may not be more than 20-25% (less employee buggies).
In the long run they will win or lose at retail and though the management has shifted things around to pretty up the picture it looks like retail is still steadily slidding at Da General.
Ford may have stabilized retail. We’ll see.
I truely do wish you luck, I’ve been there.
Geotpf-Thanks for the “heads up” on Ye Olde Taurus. That makes sense.
Would tend to support the idea that Ford maybe stabilizing. Frankly I think Mullaly may be “the Man” to do it. Let’s hope somebody in this country pulls out of their tailspin.
Stay groovy,
Bunter
I don’t know what the split between retail and fleet sales is for the Impala. However, in my hour and a half on the road everyday in the Chicago area I see a lot of them, yes the new version. Having driven them as rentals I think they are a lot better car than this forum gives them credit for.
Here is something scary for Detroit: GM is barely ahead of Toyota in retail sales.
GM’s retail sales were only 195K (74% of 264K units, from their press release). Toyota had 183K retail sales (my estimate, 93% of 197K).
Toyota’s biggest region California is very weak right now, so Toyota’s soft numbers (less than 5% YTD growth) are actually not so low. When California comes roaring back, Toyota will jump forward.
Declines for body-on-frame SUVs and pickup trucks are a sign of hope for those of us who think too many people drive those.
For instance, the Toyota brand sold 35K unibody SUVs and minivans, but only 12K body-on-frame SUVs. Also 27K pickup trucks.
Looking at GM’s numbers, there is a lot not to like.
GM’s new products don’t seem to stay hot more than about a year.
The GMT-900 platform has peaked with declines everywhere from Cadillac Escalade to Chevy Silverado.
Products that were only recently new are slow selling; such as Buick Lucerne, Chevy Equinox, Pontiac G6, G5, Solstice and all of Saturn (Aura car of the year selling only 4K units??).
The story really doesn’t change, does it. The question with the Detroit companies is which one is going to be the first to roll off the table completely.
Chrysler seems to most perilously close to the edge as only lucky flipper shots by the pinball players has kept it’s shiny silver ball in the game. Cerberus is in grave danger of imploding and become the next used-to-be-a-star-financier. Cerberus and their ilk bought old line industrial companies indiscriminately and used easy money from banks and bond buyers to pay themselves unreasonable special dividends. Now that the easy money window is suddenly closed the gig is up. Cerberus’ purchase of controlling interest in GMAC just in time for GMAC’s mortgage portfolio to blow up on them is but one of their many troubles. Putting a guy who knows nothing about cars and was drummed out of his last job (Nardelli) in charge doesn’t look like a real savvy move either. Press must be starting to think that being the designated gaijin on Toyota’s Board was in fact a terrific job! Sorry Jim, you loose. Chrysler has the worst lineup in the US market and doesn’t have the money or the time to set it right. I would give Mitsubishi better odds of survival than Chrysler.
For all the noise, GM has done absolutely nothing to fix it’s biggest problem, Multiple Personality Disorder. Sometimes there are in fact easy solutions to hard problems. Feed Chevy and Cadillac and let the other brands starve to death. No new products for anything but Chevy and Cadillac in the North American market. Stop wasting time trying to sell Cadillacs in Europe. Either give Saab the luxury European market job or shut Saab down. In China make Buick the only GM brand. No reason to repeat the US market mistakes there.
Ford seems to be once again in love with the World Car idea. World platforms make sense. World cars don’t. Alan seems to think that cars are a lot like airplanes. They aren’t. Cars are sold one at a time to retail customers. It is as if Boeing didn’t sell airplanes but instead sold airline flight tickets. Cars are a retail and fashion oriented business with no backlog and short product life cycles. Ford management remains stuck in neutral. Where are the interesting new Ford products in the US market?
What a mess.
Where are the Mazda, Honda and Hyundai numbers?
Mazda North America – down 1% for Nov, but up 9% for the year. The Mazda 3 continues to be a hit, gobbling up potential Corolla, Civic, Sentra and Jetta customers. New CX-9 is doing very well in its segment. Mazda6 is drying up but will be replaces next year with what promises to be a real winner. Dealers cannot seem to keep the mini Mazda5 on the lots, and the MazdaSpeed3 seems to be the new WRX.
Ok someone will have to fill in the Honda and Hyundai numbers.
Juniper-My 55% fleet figure on the Imp is from Fleet-Central’s mid year figures. I’m just throwing out a wild guess on employee sales.
My point isn’t based on whether the Impala is “good” or not. It is simply that the total sales figures are misleading as to it’s market importance. Those figures would lesd one to think it is close to the Accord in retail strength when it is less than half as popular (Accord fleet approx. 5% IIRC).
Having been in a few I think they are OVER rated, esp. on rear seat room. Wide, but head and leg room are sub-par for mid-size.
EJ-Interesting, I have wondered if it was close.
Bunter
Frank, by your estimates, what would be the total market share of the automakers by year end?