In January, GM Car Czar Bob Lutz stated that all of GM's new models "are getting a lot more non-GM and non-domestic conquests." As usual, the former marine aviator was flying by the seat of his pants. The numbers tell a different story. Automotive News [sub] compared fourth quarter '07 conquests to fourth quarter '05 for the redesigned Chevy Malibu and Cadillac CTS. In the last quarter '05, former Chevy owners accounted for 43.9 percent of Malibu sales. In the last quarter '07, the number rose to… 45.8 percent. The CTS sales stats also reveal that import buyers are lined-up none deep. In the fourth quarter of 2005, 30.1 percent of CTS buyers traded another Cadillac. In 2007, the number rose to… 42.2 percent. More specifically, Mercedes owners jumping ship for the midsized Caddy sedan ascended from 2.1 percent to 2.7 percent in 2007, and ex-Lexus owners increased from 1.2 percent to 2.3 percent. BMW owners stayed away. In 2005, 2.4 percent were BMW conquests; in 2007 that dropped to 2.3 percent.
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Any increase in conquest sales from foreign brands is a victory for General Motors as its traditional customers had been leaving large numbers up to recently. Bob Lutz is certainly prone to some sensationalism, but so is TTAC. Pretty difficult to comment any further since we dont have access to the entire Automotive News Story.
As has been previously recorded in this space, these cars are answers to questions that nobody is asking. An alternative to the Camcordima? A Mercedes/BMW/Lexus alternative?
From what I’ve seen, the new Malibu and CTS appear to be fine cars (which is born out by their retention numbers). Just not good enough to move perfectly satisfied customers from entrenched competitors.
I have only for-sure seen one new Malibu so far here in Atlanta.
It was on a Budget Rent-A-Car lot.
gamper :
February 4th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
Any increase in conquest sales from foreign brands is a victory for General Motors as its traditional customers had been leaving large numbers up to recently. Bob Lutz is certainly prone to some sensationalism, but so is TTAC. Pretty difficult to comment any further since we dont have access to the entire Automotive News Story.
My thoughts exactly!!
I’d like to see these same figures in 6 to 12 months, to give the products more than a couple months to gain traction in the marketplace.
Anyway, why try to dig up dirt on good products (Malibu and CTS are quite good)?
Can we all be happy that America’s automaker is producing better than good products after years of mediocrity?
Raskolnikov :
Can we all be happy that America’s automaker is producing better than good products after years of mediocrity?
“Better than good?” Wow, talk about setting the bar low– I mean, slightly higher than at the bottom.
It is not TTAC’s job to be happy for anyone (obviously). And if GM execs share your sense of complacency, well, that’s a very worrying though not unexpected thought.
As a hard-core import buyer, I have been following the new Malibu carefully. So far-so good. If GM keeps this up for 10 years (2 car-buying cycles) and there are no major problems with these vehicles after the 5 year mark, then I will take a serious look.
GM are masters at designing products with expensive failures shortly after the warranty expires. With the new extended warranty, did they simply move the failure date?
no big surprise….
in the CTS TV/print ads you see a 30-something, scruffy-urban-yuppy/hipster-type flying through the city in a CTS. Farthest from the truth.
Seeing all the CTS drivers in my area, it looks like CTS is cannibalizing DTS sales and appealing to the core Cadillac demographic, the gray-haired, 50+ year olds.
Doesn’t seem like people are cross-shopping CTS with 335i or G35.
Can we all be happy that America’s automaker is producing better than good products after years of mediocrity?
Hurry they have finally been able to produce a few decent cars. What about the 40-something other cars they sell or dont sell much. And the fact the Malibu is still in short suppy, not because we see it every where on the road as people buy it in droves, but because they are making a small suppy of them. I have yet to see more then 1 new CTS on the road, but 6 at that dealer I stopped at.
It is a little soon to really make a judgment, although I have looked over the latest sales to at least see if there is any clue as to what we can expect.
And nothing really exiciting yet for these two cars.
I hope for the best as I always want to reward those that try.
But I hope I am not overly slanted towards the domestics’ corner…
After all, I thought the Chicago Bears and Bulls were going to be good.
And this problem goes way back…I chose the Dave Clark Five over the Beatles.
pp
I can tell you first hand that the new CTS is attracting many BMW/Mercedes/Lexus owners. Part of the reason that the percentages of conquest owners is not higher is product availability. I don’t know of any Cadillac dealer that has any kind of inventory. The car is red hot and many intenders simply go back to BMW (for instance)because they simply cannot get their hands on a CTS!
…and as far as the new Malibu goes-Chevrolet dealers are in a similar predicament. The car is hot and selling at a very fast pace.
I have been freakin’ burned TOO MANY TIMES (OK, twice) by poorly-built GM junkers that I purchased new off-the-lot to really feel comfortable going back to the General. Add to that the imcompetency of the dealer service network to fix recurring problems under warranty and I really cannot forsee ever buying anything from Bob Lutz and Family.
According to the table in the linked article, 9.5% of Malibu buyers in December 2007 came from Honda, Toyota, or Nissan. In December 2005, this was 6.2%. This means that conquest sales are up 53.2% from the Japanese Big Three for the Malibu.
For the CTS, in December 2007, 7.3% of its sales came from Mercedes, Lexus, and BMW. In December 2005, this was 5.7%. This is a 28% increase.
Sorry, I don’t see the bad news in these numbers. I imagine that it’s also not a bad thing that 42.2% of the CTS’s buyers are willing to buy another one, as apparently this was not as much the case two years ago.
What would be alarming is if people were trading non-premium brands like Kias or Hyundais on CTSs. And maybe that’s the case – but the stats are incomplete (as the totals don’t equal 100%) and also don’t show how competitors shake out. I don’t think anyone should realistically expect BMW or Lexus owners to suddenly buy new Cadillacs, but the fact that 28% more of them are than two years ago is good news for GM, in my opinion.
Slateslate wrote:
no big surprise….
in the CTS TV/print ads you see a 30-something, scruffy-urban-yuppy/hipster-type flying through the city in a CTS. Farthest from the truth.
Seeing all the CTS drivers in my area, it looks like CTS is cannibalizing DTS sales and appealing to the core Cadillac demographic, the gray-haired, 50+ year olds.
Doesn’t seem like people are cross-shopping CTS with 335i or G35.
I love comments like this. Broad sweeping generalizations based on nothing. So you happen to look over at a few drivers of a CTS. I guess they were older so they must have been driving a DTS prior to the purchase of CTS. Also, since the handful of drivers you happen to have seen behind the wheel are older, I guess people in their 30’s and 40’s arent driving the new CTS at all. Of course, there is also the fact that you happen to be sitting in BMW and Infiniti dealerships to survey people as they come in the door to see if they are cross shopping Caddys. How else would you know what BMW/Infiniti buyers are also considering.
I tell ya, these auto manufacturers are spending way too much money on market research. They should just ask you.
Without seeing the other half of the numbers it is all meaningless. If 20% of Camry buyers are ex-Detroit buyers than the 9.5% of Malibu buyers trading in a Japanese Big Three product isn’t very exciting. If 1% of Camry buyers are ex-Detroit then the Malibu number is a little interesting.
Has anyone actually tried to buy a Malibu, or CTS? Do any dealers have them?
William
Robert Farago:
“Better than good?” Wow, talk about setting the bar low– I mean, slightly higher than at the bottom.
It is not TTAC’s job to be happy for anyone (obviously). And if GM execs share your sense of complacency, well, that’s a very worrying though not unexpected thought.
Didn’t the CTS review here on TTAC get 4 out of 5 stars? Seems to me that 4 out of 5 is better than good, or does this rating system apply differently to the various manufacturers?
I don’t recall how you rated the Malibu (if at all), but we can deduce from the rest of the automotive press that it is at least better than good.
william442, on January 1 there were 14,500 Malibus in inventory (a 31 day supply) and 4,300 CTSs in inventory (a 16 day supply).
Automotive News doesn’t have the February 1 figures in the data center yet.
Raskolnikov, TTAC gave the Malibu 4 out of 5 stars also.
https://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/reviews/chevrolet-malibu-review/
Raskolnikov :
I didn’t say the CTS was “better than good,” you used the term to describe GM product.
I was pointing out the flaw in your argument.
As this report on the CTS and Malibu’s conquests (or lack thereof) clearly highlights, even four star cars aren’t enough to “turn the tide” for GM.
They need to BEAT the competition senseless. Consistently. Five out of five. Across the board.
You could say, “great beginning.” But do you seriously think GM has the managerial ability and staying power to repeat this proto-success for 49 models over eight brands?
Frankly, I don’t see how their multi-brand strategy allows for that possibility (as the Cannibals editorial highlights). And I don’t see that GM’s culture of arrogance and ADD has changed, either.
Maybe I’m wrong. There is always that possibility. Right until there isn’t…
Local dealers here have 15-20 sitting on lots and there are rebates on them. The sales guy noted that they’ve sold a lot of them to local company fleets and gov’t. They said they sell about 3-4 retail a week.
I got to sit in one and the dash is much nicer than any Malibu I’ve rented before but there are a lot of uneven gaps all over the car even on the body work – reminiscent of Saturn.
I thought that “better than good” meant “very good.” He’s not saying “better than mediocre” or “better than poor.” Admittedly, very good is not excellent.
jaje, according to Automotive News, there are no national rebates on the Malibu as of January 21. The current round of incentives expires March 3. Link: http://www.autonews.com/assets/PDF/CA37013118.PDF
That’s not to say the dealer wasn’t trying to drive up volume by selling them for invoice. Frankly I don’t think I’d ever pay over invoice for a Malibu, although I do like the cars.
CarsDirect also shows no incentives (at least in my Zip code of 19320).
With roughly 4,063 Chevy dealers and about 14,500 Malibus in stock, your inventory experience appears to be atypical, since the average would be 3.37 units per dealer.
Once burned, twice shy. Consumers are wary of the Detroit-3. GM may not have enough time left for the Malibu and CTS to develop sufficiently strong quality, reliability and dependability records to interest purchasers.
The CTS as an import fighter really has its work cut out for it and to be honest I cant see were the CTS can gain an edge on either of its two main competitors the BMW 3 series and the Infinity G35.
Once again by NOT offering up a v8 in the CTS GM has come to the battle with NO advantage over the established champions.
It is time for GM to accept that there are folks that like Japanese cars just because! The same as with folks that like German cars because they are German and do have some unique German qualities to them. I am in that camp, I have been driving Toyotas, Hondas, and Nissans for about 20 years now in that time I have enjoyed what they do better than domestics and have accepted what they cant do. For example during my driving life a Mustang GT has always been capable of blowing the doors off of any comparibly priced Japanese car, yet the Japanese cars at teh same price point have consistantly been better built and of higher quality. Yes they were slower but that is the trade-off I have been willing to deal with.
I am the guy who brought the Prelude over the Stang and have never looked back.
20 years later I am still a Asian-Import man and will naturally gravitate towards the G35 as my first choice. When I put it all together, performance, style, quality, reliabilty, and price I can think of no reason to shop beyond the Inifiniti dealer. A 335xi would be great but I aint spending an addtional 10grand for what I consider to be a maybe 5% better car.
The CTS is still faced with the “GM Factor”. It looks great at first sight but I can help but think where did GM cut the corners? This become a mute point once I consider the fact that the Cadillac will be all but worthless next to the G35 and 328i in matter of a few short years.
Anyone know comparable conquest figures for other vehicles?
The only ‘Bu I’ve seen in ATL was a black LTZ, and it looked sharp.
I’ve seen a number of new CTS’s and have to say it looks very good in the flesh.
Will they win the war? No. But it’s a start. It’ll take two or three generations of great cars to turn this thing around. All the new ‘Bu and CTS can hope to do is stop the bleeding.
Once again by NOT offering up a v8 in the CTS GM has come to the battle with NO advantage over the established champions.
I thought the era of the V8 was dead and gone…
Speaking of the Malibu and the CTS, I was in a Manhattan GM dealer yesterday and saw a loaded ‘bu in the flesh. It was right next to the CTS and it made an interesting comparison. The ‘bu is sharper-looking thn either the Camry or the Accord inside and out. Fit and finish appeared to be quite good. I then test-drove a CTS with the DI 3.6. I liked it a lot better than the Infiniti G35 I rented on a recent road trip. It has more torque, a non-twitchy throttle, better steering and an excellent ride over NYC potholed streets (this was with the FE2 suspension). It’s a world-class car. BTW, the dealer has 14 of them in stock. I’ve seen quite a few on the streets of NYC in the last few months.
BTW, I have a friend who, for years, drove nothing but 7-series and S-classes. The day that, while sitting at a light, all the airbags in his S500 deployed was the beginning of the end for him. Stuck with a nasty combination of relentless lease payments and a dealer that was competing with all the other dealers for the repair parts, he was driving a loaner for months. MB reliability is nothing to brag about.
One final point: How is anything to be learned of ’08 CTS conquest sales by looking at ’07 Mercedes data?
bunkie,
Mercedes has been trying to claim that they are getting quality back in the cars (without really admitting their previous failings).
Didn’t work for GM because they have taken AT LEAST twenty years without real proof yet if you buy a GM model, it will be a quality car. The only way to get a GM car with proven reliability is to buy a five year old model after you have seen which ones hold up. With so many crappy models, a couple good ones will not change enough minds.
“That’s not to say the dealer wasn’t trying to drive up volume by selling them for invoice. Frankly I don’t think I’d ever pay over invoice for a Malibu.”
Believe me, if you are not prepared to pay anything over dealer invoice for a new Malibu you are in no danger of buying one.
A quick search of the Chevy dealers in my area show no more than 5 at any dealership. And that is the larger dealers.
CTS inventory is about 2 to 4 per dealer.
Once again by NOT offering up a v8 in the CTS GM has come to the battle with NO advantage over the established champions.
I thought the era of the V8 was dead and gone…
If so than what is the point of the Pontiac G8?
If GM thinks a v8 will sell in a 30grand+ Pontiac why not a 40grand+ Cadillac?
More to the point a CTS equiped with the 5.3l ohv v8 could have been produced and sold for the same or less than the 3.6DI V6. Equiped with the new 6 speed tranny it would have also had comparable fuel economy yet would have a real world power advantage over every v6 equiped car in this segment. More important GM would be able to slap a nice v8 badge on it and market it as the v8 for the price of a v6 with the same economy.
Instead GM has been on a a role wasting money developing engines that they really do not need outside of the negative image that they themselves have put on the ohv v8. Just when the ohv v8 is coming into its own again GM is content to run with the crowd doing things (dohc 4v)that other do better than them.
The CTS is nice but considering the price that GM is asking for it, it is not that nice. A better way to look at this arguement is would you rather have an 05 G35 or an 05 CTS? Needless to say based on past performance Nissan gets the pass here for the new purchase in 08.
Skooter, I’m not the kind of person who pays much over invoice for any new vehicle. I’ve bought three new vehicles (Honda-Nissan-Toyota) in four years and paid an average of $300 over invoice.
Yes, if I was getting an 08 Malibu (or anything in its first few months on the market), I’d have to ante up to get one of the first ones. But I’m OK with waiting a year or two. I’m not in the market for a FWD midsize sedan at the moment anyway. My Accord has been too damn good to me, making its replacement unnecessary for the time being.
I like the 08 Malibu and especially the 08 CTS a lot…I’d probably buy a CTS tomorrow if I needed a car. But now that GM has vehicles I want, I don’t need any.
GM has put a “negative image” on the OHV V8 engine? That’s news to me.
The V6 Direct Inject in the CTS has 304 horsepower. No need for a V8.
If you are in demand for an 8, you might want to wait for the 2009 CTS-V. 6.2L V8, 550 horses available in automatic or manual.
“Needless to say based on past performance Nissan gets the pass here for the new purchase in 08.”
What is so significant about Nissan?
In todays Feb.4th 2008, the Detroit News says that “Consumer Reports” said that the Malibu was excellent! Well I have the same issue here in my hands and it doesn’t say that, what they say is that the Malibu is on the heels of the best Family sedans! Time will tell whether the Malibu will have some of the same problems that other GM V6’s had eg. Gaskets problems and Bad brakes, here in Canada the Gasket problem has never been cleared up and there is still a large Class Action in progress against GM Canada, again time will tell.
I almost bought an SRX. These good faith efforts were killed by two different dealers, neither of which appeared to care to sell me the car at anything but a sucker’s price. Being used to BMW, where you pay but the service is good, I was massively turned off, despite liking the product.
An Acura dealer dealt on both content and price, and most importantly, and like BMW, the sales staff appeared oriented toward selling cars and dealing with the customer in an honest manner. So I ended up with a Honda MDX built in Ontario, probably only 300 miles from the SRX plant. So much for globalization. I find it interesting that the MDX is a US only rig…Honda builds it for us alone-not that I’d want to feed this beast in Europe.
One caddy dealer tried to sell me a leftover flood car-the other saw the BMW and tried to sell me the SRX at the X5’s price.
There are problems, sadly, that brilliant design and quality construction cannot solve. I’m sure these dealers make money, and that scares me.
whatdoiknow1 – I just bought a G35 at the end of December and I love it. You won’t regret getting it. My buddy who bought an IS250 a year earlier wishes he got the G instead.
Here in the Bay Area, I have seen very few ‘bus or CTSs. Of course, that’s hardly scientific, but it doesn’t seem like GM or any of the domestics are getting a lot of conquest sales. I see a ton of Camcords and the redesigned Altima. And there are Prii everywhere you look (especially in Berkeley, no big surprise). I think it will take a number of years and perhaps product cycles for people to shake off the notion that GM/domestic cars are cheaply made and not reliable. Plus, as other posters have noted, the Malibu and CTS must hold up over time in that regard in order for any hope of long-term conquest sales to occur.
I rented a 2008 Malibu two weeks ago and was extremely impressed. The body structure was solid, it handled well without an overly harsh ride and the interior looked good and was very comfortable. The weak link in my opinion was the coarse sounding V6 engine but it did provide good power. Anyone in the market for a mid to full sized sedan that does not at least drive a Malibu before buying is doing themselves a dis-service. When was the last time you could say that about a GM sedan?
One of the problems is that GM (and the other American brands) don’t really make anything to compare with the BMW 3 series. RWD and under 180 inches – even in a wagon. The CTS and Malibu are 191″ and I don’t want a vehicle that big – nor does my wife. American car makers think we all still want BIG vehicles. BMW, Audi and Mercedes are succeeding on compact luxury cars – which is what many thinking drivers are seeking.
At what point does the quality question go away? A lot of people have commented they have been burned by GM in the past and that’s certainly an important consideration. But with respect to the new CTS, I have absolutely no quality concerns. Our current CTS which was built in August of 2002 is a quality vehicle. The problems with it have been minor (bad CD changer, sunroof switch that needed to be replaced, a flaky seatbelt sensor). For a first-off-the-assembly-line example, I’d say that’s pretty good quality over 87K miles.
For those that are unconvinced, try this – go to the Chevrolet.com web site and see how many new Malibu’s are sitting on dealer lots in your area. In my case the most I could find is three at any given dealer! Now, try the same with Cadillac.com, again I can only find at most one new CTS on a dealer lot. In the case of the new Malibu and CTS, the horses haven’t left the gate, but leave it to the automotive press to call imported autos the winner before the race even gets under way. What I believe to be truly revealing is that traffic at Chevrolet.com has increased 300% since the introduction of the Malibu, while the imports are seeing traffic at their web sites decline. Click the link below and you can actually see where I’m drawing my conclusions from – how novel. http://tinyurl.com/24drvu In summary, I believe web site hits are a positive indication for a future rise in sales. However, we won’t know how successful the new Malibu or CTS will be until there is at least a smattering of inventory on dealer lots for consumers to chose from.
Walt501, I checked three Chevy dealers in this area and they have between 3 and 14 Malibus each.
There’s one parked outside at the dealer up the road, where you can just barely glimpse it through the serried rows of trucks… It has been there two weeks and they don’t seem to be in a rush to brush the snow off of it. Well, that snow will all melt by May, I suppose.
They don’t bother to brush the snow off the Silverados, either.
Without comparisons to actual sales and incentives (or transaction prices), web site hits do not offer anywhere near a complete picture. They probably indicate some level of interest but that’s about it. The Tesla, for example, is interesting, too. I wouldn’t say their web site hits are an indication of success.
Oh, and it would be interesting to see more than a twelve-month period, so we get some idea of seasonal changes.
At least this is a step up from “proving” something with Google hits.
—
Bunkie, you are asking a question that Bob Lutz ought to ask himself every day and should have been asking himself every day since starting at GM. It’s awfully hard to win a reputation for quality. It takes a long time to forget how much money one lost on a car that ate transmissiont or threw a rod, etc. The gasket business will affect a generation.
I took a quick look at Edmunds and the number of ’03 CTS customers reporting problems was disheartening. The number of ’04 CTS customers reporting problems was larger than I’d like to see if I was considering a used one. The number of “No More GM Ever” entries was disturbing.
Frankly, I think that GM will only beat that rap when their last bad year rolls off the repair history section of Consumer Reports. Those ratings are five or six years deep. If the ’05 CTS was a reliability winner – along with a very strong majority of the other ’05 GM vehicles, then they might be in the clear in 2011.