By on June 3, 2008

b137.jpgIn July's Car and Driver, Csabe Csere takes the Secretary of Transportation to task for her ignorance about auto industry lead times. How can Mary E. Peters' department mandate a big increase in fuel economy standards for 2011 when Detroit’s already signed off on those products? Despite the obvious irony– the buff book’s hobbled by their two-month lead time– Csere makes a good point. The corollary: unless GM planned to switch from gas-guzzling light trucks to fuel-efficient cars in 2003, they’re insert F-bomb here. As May’s sales numbers indicate, indeed they are.

Last month, GM's light truck sales sank 22.1 percent. The GMT900 pickup trucks and SUVs touted as the Next Big Thing are No Big Thing. Chevrolet Tahoe sales are down 39.7 percent; the brand's pickups are off 42 percent. The next Next Big Thing after that, GM's Lambda-platformed crossovers, are also a damp squib. Sales of the GMC Acadia are down 27.6 percent. Saturn dealers sold 38.1 percent fewer of its twin under the skin, the Outlook. Add in ALL GM trucks, and May wiped 36.7 off the comparative sales ledger.

Like Richard Nixon before him, GM CEO Rick Wagoner takes all of the responsibility but none of the blame. At this morning’s shareholder meeting, GM’s 14.4 million dollar man had an opportunity to, as CNN mistakenly predicted, “step up.” Instead of [finally] outlining a specific plan for a return to profitability, Wagoner announced that GM is shuttering four truck plants and ramping-up car production. Why in three year’s time, cars will account for 60 percent of GM's North American production (up from about 50 percent)!

Wagoner’s “plan” to shut off GM’s light truck production spigot in the next three years is too little too late. At the end of April– BEFORE the May sales stats– GM had a 125-day supply of pickup trucks and most SUVs (e.g. Chevy Suburban and Tahoe). The truck glut will continue, and continue to drive down prices. GM’s life-sustaining profits will shrink further and their cash pile will burn even faster. Not to mention the fact that the plant closures could bankrupt struggling suppliers and cripple GM’s already fragile supply chain.  

Meanwhile, Wagoner’s put the HUMMER brand on the auction block. Sure, Hummers sales are in the toilet; down by 60.2 percent this month. But from a wider perspective, the CEO’s increasingly familiar refrain of "all options are on the table” is proof (if proof were needed) that GM’s branding strategy is in tatters. Less than two months ago, the automaker created the HUMMER, Cadillac, Saab” division. Why the quick change of heart? Lest we forget, Hummer is GM’s strongest brand, boasting the company’s highest customer retention stats. At least it DID until Wagoner very publicly clouded HUMMER's future….

Don’t get me wrong. The General Motors Death Watch series started with the premise that GM should be broken-up and sold, with HUMMER as the idea’s poster child. But if radical, fundamental restructuring were the goal, as it bloody well should be, Wagoner should have swung an axe on an entire division, not just Hummer. Saturn was a more logical choice. It's a dead brand walking whose recently refreshed product line did sweet FA for sales (down XXXX). But with or without Hummer, it’s steady as she goes brandwise over at RenCen. Still.

Which means it’s only a matter of time before GM’s lobbyists head over to the White House and Capitol Hill with their billion-dollar begging bowl. Can GM hold out until after the presidential election? Perhaps. But the most amazing part of all this is that Rick Wagoner will probably be at the helm when GM’s slow-motion self-petard hoisting reaches its inevitable dénouement.

Truth be told, Wagoner’s “success” at GM has been the automaker’s greatest failure– at least in the last decade. Yes, it's Wagoner's tenth year at the helm (eighth years as CEO) of what was, before his tenure, the world’s largest automaker. Wagoner’s watched GM’s North American market share slide some ten percentage points. He’s seen the company shed tens of billions of dollars of stockholder value– and lose tens of billions of dollars. He’s sold everything that wasn't nailed down and pissed away the future of millions of American workers; all while lining his pockets and securing a bankruptcy-proof pension.  

When the history of GM is written, Rick Wagoner will be easily identified as the architect of the automaker’s final, sad chapter. Wagoner will be condemned for his lack of vision, leadership and, above all else, timing.

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33 Comments on “General Motors Death Watch 179: Black Tuesday...”


  • avatar

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080603/rescap_gmac.html?.v=7

    “NEW YORK (AP) — Residential Capital LLC, the mortgage lending unit of GMAC LLC, said Tuesday it needs more than three times more cash to stay in business than it estimated just weeks ago.
    ResCap estimates it now needs about $2 billion in cash by the end of June to meet liquidity demands, according to a regulatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.”

    This should be interesting.

  • avatar
    menno

    ResCap falls, GMAC falls, GM falls too.

    Little wonder the Rick told Ontario “we’ll think about paying you back in 2014” or whenever.

    You can’t get blood out of a rock, and you can’t get money out of a dead corporation.

    I bet GM is trying to figure out how to hive off foreign subsidiaries right now, in an effort to keep “something” of the corporation alive. Like GMDaewoo, GM do Brazil and SAIC-GM (China), which are somewhat profitable at least.

    GMNA is a dead company not walking, but stumbling.
    Bumbling. Ready to do a face-plant off the side of a cliff.

    Unfortunately, much of Michigan is tied to GM’s ankle by a thick chain… not to mention Ontario, right Mikey?

  • avatar
    undershaft

    nice article. the chances the Rick W. will be held accountable is…nil. obviously the air the upper management and board are breathing has something funny in it because they are not getting it, and if they are it, as you said, probably too little too late.

    as it has been said in this forum many, many times, this ship is to big and to ungainly to survive as it exists today. more to the point it probably won’t. but the type of drastic and meaningful action must be done now, this announcement and these actions will not get the job done.

    more troubling; ask yourself, do you know anyone running out to buy a GM product? i am in line for new car soon, will spend a decent amount. i would not even think about shopping a GM product (Chrysler for that matter). i look around at my neighbors and co-workers and i know that most of them, if they own big domestic iron will not buy it again or are not buying it. More trouble, with price of gas where it is today do you think the new CUV’s that everyone is “lining” up to buy will save GM. if you read the fine print thaey are not exactly fuel sippers. oh man they are deep, deep dodo.

  • avatar
    KatiePuckrik

    To be fair, GM are starting to form a coherent brand strategy.

    They are lining up Chevrolet and Cadillac all around the world and letting them cannibalise sales from existing marques (i.e Vauxhall/Opel and SAAB). Then, I’m sure, they will retire all other brands and go with their newly global marques.

    The question is, will GM last long enough to see this vision and I believe the answer is no. The cash burn rate is too fast ($1 billion per month), sales are tanking and customers aren’t buying, either due to the “perception gap” or the credit crunch.

    It does make me wonder how Rick Wagoner managed to ascend to that level of management at GM. No-one can blag a job like that. You have to prove yourself at least once. So Rick Wagoner must have shone at some level. A bit like Jurgen Schrempp. As a CEO he sucked like a Dyson cleaner, but as a lower level manager, he was VERY good! and I mean REALLY good. For instance, when Toyota, Ford and other withdrew from South Africa due to apartheid, Herr Schrempp INSISTED that Mercedes-Benz stay in South Africa. He, then, instituted changes like paying black workers the same as white workers. He was then give the “Order of Good Hope”, the highest honour in South Africa.

    Back at GM, we know that GM’s marques are shot to buggery; we’ve been here before. GM needs a swift and savage plan, in order to save it. But Rick Wagoner’s insistence of not timetabling his plan, leaves investors (and workers) with little or no faith in the company. GM management truly believe that it’s is the customers’ fault for not “considering” their product. It is this level of arrogance which is turning off people to GM. Where does this sense of “entitlement” come from? Can you no longer EARN peoples’ custom? Have you ascended to a level where the laws of economics no longer apply to you? Of course not! Build a great car (like the Cadillac CTS), make your brands stand for something and let the customer do the deciding.

    And every day that passes, only means that the turnaround that GM so desperately needs, needs to be swifter and more savage, almost to the point when even the love child of Lee Iacocca and Carlos Ghosn can’t save GM.

    “When the history of GM is written, Rick Wagoner will be easily identified as the ultimate architect of the automaker’s destruction. Wagoner will be condemned for his lack of vision, leadership and, above all else, timing.”

    I don’t think this will bother him too much, as he’s sunning himself on a beach somewhere enjoying his bankruptcy proof pension. It kind of reminds me of when Jurgen Schrempp orchestrated the “merger” of DaimlerChrylser, then, he was ousted, Dieter Zesche dismantled it, Daimler’s shares went through the roof and Jurgen Schrempp cashed his options in and made a fortune! If only CEO’s were this calculated in serving the company, rather than themselves, we might see healthier companies!

    There’s an old Chinese proverb which Detroit managers should take heed of:

    Society would move forward a lot quicker, if people didn’t worry about who got the credit…

  • avatar
    Cicero

    The back-and-forth with the Hummer brand really makes it look like these guys are managing by panic. They still have no coherent plan, as far as I’ve seen.

  • avatar
    menno

    As usual, very well said, Katie.

    Cicero, you also hit the nail on the head with “they have no coherent plan” and I especially agree with your assessment

    “managing by panic”

    which is to say, not managing at all, but panicking.

  • avatar
    Mud

    Is that a picture of our future North American Union?

  • avatar
    Steve_K

    It may behoove us to consider the possibility that the top brass of GM don’t spew their real corporate strategy into public domain. We’ve certainly been more than willing to consider the alternative (“they have no plan”). If I were heading a multi-billion dollar corporation in one of the world’s most competitive business fields, everything that could be observed would be a chess move, designed to make my competitors think they had me figured. Just sayin.

  • avatar
    EJ_San_Fran

    What an earthquake this month!

    – Toyota displaces GM as #1 in retail sales
    – Honda Civic is now the best-selling vehicle in America
    – Honda Civic by itself probably sold more retail sales than all Chevrolet cars together
    – The top 3 selling vehicles in America: Honda Civic, Toyota Corolla, Toyota Camry
    – Retail sales rank is probably:
    1. Toyota
    2. GM
    3. Honda
    4. Ford

  • avatar
    mel23

    For me the issue isn’t what Wagoner may have done at some level to make someone think he had the goods, but that he failed at his current job year after year after year and kept it. And even now George Fisher professes that GM has the right management team, and one of the other bystanders says Wagoner ‘has a handle on it’. The stock holders deserve to lose every cent and it seems they will. The many thousands of GM workers who do a good job, and even more supplier employees, deserve much better but won’t get it.

  • avatar

    HUMMER is realistically the only GM brand with value (even with high fuel prices) and one that could be sold to another automaker, investors or back to AM General. Just like Jeep with Chrysler.

    The rest of GM’s brands, even Saab, have basically zero value outside of GM to anyone else. GM’s restructure should include the closure of every brand except for GM’s core business which is Chevrolet and possibly Cadillac. HUMMER could exist fine with these two brands if GM properly managed it’s business.

    As Robert pointed out HUMMER is a valuable brand. Not only does it have the best customer retention, it also provides more profit to GM per unit sold than anything else they make (though that may have changed) and has a unique, premium image that can’t be replicated by any other GM division or other automakers, again like Jeep.

    A leaner GM is a GM that can prosper in these times and can react quickly to shifts in the market. It’s a GM with new leadership, with just Chevrolet and Cadillac and with the resources and talent to make exceptional vehicles for both brands the capitalize on their rich histories and nameplates.

    Sadly, I don’t think we’ll ever see this happen before Chapter 11.

  • avatar
    gamper

    I personally think GM will survive the onslaught of economic factors and its own catalogue of blunders to fight another day. All empires throughout history have fallen, Toyota will fall as well, oddly enough, 100 years is roughly the general time frame for the reign of many empires.

    I see GM doing a lot of things right finally, late, but right. There are so many factors that have contributed to GM’s current financial woes, some are actually totally outside of GM’s control. I knew many years ago before I discovered an enthusiasm for automobiles that GM’s (And the big 2.8 in general) decision to put all its eggs in the truck basket would be its undoing. I think many people, not just industry watchers could see that one coming. If you wanted a car, look elsewhere, if you wanted a truck, Detroit was the place to look.

    Basically, it boils down to addiction. GM could not let go of truck sales because it needed to sustain its unsustainable business practices that included a grossly overpaid workforce that essentially had its employer by the balls for decades. As legacy costs soared and market share sank trucks became ever more important reinforcing a shortsighted business model, and so on.

    I suspect that if you took the twelve step program from Alcoholics Anonamous there would be many intresting parellels that could be drawn from the Big 2.8’s addiction to trucks and a drug addict.

  • avatar
    50merc

    So the board thinks Wagoner “has a hand on it”? Well, I guess so: the plane is in a deep dive and the CEO has his hand firmly on the stick, pushing it forward all the way.

  • avatar
    Captain Tungsten

    The other reason Hummer is being considered for sale is because it probably could be sold. Along with the brand and the dealers, you could get half the old AM General plant in Mishawaka to build the H2 and, once the chicken tax gets repealed and GM starts importing mid-trucks from Thailand or Brazil, you get Shreveport to build the H3 (and the new, fuel efficient products you will need to survive). Contract with GM for the powertrains and sheet metal, line up the rest of the supply chain, and off you go.

  • avatar

    The feds have had the habit since the sixties of instituting changes on timetables that are incompatible with the automakers’ lead times, which usually forces hasty, unsatisfactory improvisations. The problem is that when the automakers are given more lead time, they have typically responded with lobbying, rather than development, hoping to get the new requirements rescinded or rolled back before they have to fulfill them.

    I think it becomes a balancing act. As naive and off-base as the federal rules frequently are, WITHOUT government intervention, the automakers would display absolutely no regard whatever for emissions, fuel economy, safety, or public health (e.g., the pernicious effects of leaded gasoline).

  • avatar
    Orian

    Well, it appears others think GM is sinking:

    http://money.cnn.com/2008/06/03/news/companies/taylor_gm.fortune/index.htm?cnn=yes

  • avatar
    ExtraO

    The General (and Ford, for that matter) strike me like some sleepy vacationer that couldn’t be bothered to notice all the water draining away (for years) from the beach. Now, way too late to do anything other than flail about uselessly, they’ve noticed the tsunami combination of $4 gas and theMay 2008 top sellers:

    1. Honda Civic……53,299
    2. Toyota Corolla……52,826
    3. Toyota Camry……..51,291
    4. Honda Accord……..43,728
    5. Ford F-Series…….42,973
    6. Chevy Silverado…..37,020

    (I get this peculiar urge to shout “Tora, Tora,Tora!” or “Banzai!”, but I’ll contain myself, somewhat.) Full disclosure: I own a 2006 Civic.

    I would like to point out that the little Honda Civic, referred to round these parts as a “wee beastie” and a “Dustbuster” just KICKED THE GENERAL”S ASS, ate his and Ford’s breakfast, lunch and dinner. Cleaned his clock, & etc., etc. But I didn’t come here to gloat.

    Mismanagement was already a terminal disease in Detroit, but the patients aren’t quite dead yet. Along come supply & demand imbalances in petroleum markets that provoke price rises of a couple of lousy bucks per gallon. Detroit is less structurally prepared to handle this than the Asians are for the time being, but the glory will prove fleeting. In three or four years they’ll be in the same hot water the Americans are now.

  • avatar
    Redbarchetta

    Didn’t the Civic and Corolla (or was it Corona at the time) do this same thing more than 30 years ago. They must be too stupid to learn something the first time.

    Interesting times we are in. I don’t even think the government could save GM at this point, our government is just as short sighted, slow and stupid as GM management. I don’t think Congress is going to push that bailout through as quikly as people think when the country is bleeding money from so many places.

  • avatar
    EJ_San_Fran

    It’s stunning how rising oil prices have been the blind spot of Detroit. I suspect that America never truly internalized the lesson of the 1970’s: that we’re addicted to oil; that we’re at the mercy of others and that prices can rise to painful levels.

    It seems that 2008 is finally the watershed year when the blind see the light.

    So, what advice can we give to Detroit now?
    My advice: do some planning. Develop scenarios.
    What if you want to be able to move your whole fleet to 50 MPG fuel economy?
    How would you do it? Could you do it? How are you going to prepare for this possibility? What kind of technologies, product portfolio and corporate flexibility does it require? How would you compete with others? Would your company still be viable?

  • avatar
    seldomawake

    I ran into the Wall St. Journal today, with a great article;

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121248991309341065.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news

    Here’s some quotes:

    “After three years of restructuring and tens of billions of dollars in losses, General Motors Corp. shifted direction once again Tuesday, unveiling plans to close four truck plants and possibly sell its Hummer brand.”

    “The abrupt shift, outlined at GM’s annual meeting, is an acknowledgment that Chairman and Chief Executive Rick Wagoner miscalculated in 2005 when he bet big on trucks. That plan, based on expectations of steady vehicle sales and gas prices in the U.S. through 2008, won the backing of GM’s board and helped Mr. Wagoner prevail in a 2006 boardroom battle with then-shareholder Kirk Kerkorian.”

    “Mr. Wagoner took over as chief executive in 2000. His track record has been rocky. GM’s stock, which closed Tuesday at $17.58 in 4 p.m. composite New York Stock Exchange trading, is now near a 26-year low. GM’s market share in May was about one-third lower than it was when he took over. Its market valuation now stands at $9.87 billion — less than one-quarter of what it was in 2000.

    Some shareholders are frustrated. “You don’t get a sense that the General Motors crowd really gets it,” said Sister Patricia Daly, who represents the Sisters of Saint Dominic of Caldwell, N.J., a religious order that owns GM shares, in an interview on Friday. “Even in the 1990s, it was clear they weren’t going to be able to sell the big SUVs for 15 years without any impact.””

    “On Tuesday, Mr. Wagoner declined to forecast when GM will return to profitability.”

    Says it all, really.

  • avatar
    MikeInCanada

    From the WSJ – Fair Use Extract:

    Some shareholders are frustrated. “You don’t get a sense that the General Motors crowd really gets it,” said Sister Patricia Daly, who represents the Sisters of Saint Dominic of Caldwell, N.J., a religious order that owns GM shares, in an interview on Friday. “Even in the 1990s, it was clear they weren’t going to be able to sell the big SUVs for 15 years without any impact.”

    Wagner has gone and pissed of the nuns. This is going to get real ugly – notes sent home to parents, probably a parent meeting at school too.

    I can just picture the whole lot of them, out in the quad doing stretching exercises with yard sticks in there hands – just waiting for him….

  • avatar
    mel23

    While there’s no doubt that Wagoner doesn’t get it, didn’t get it, never will get it, I don’t think the sisters get it either. If they can’t get the bystanders to dump Rick, it might be time to think about dumping the stock.

  • avatar
    Axel

    When GM crashes and burns Wagoner will blame it all on the “recession” and $4/gal gas. The Obama Administration and populist-controlled Congress will buy it hook, line, and sinker, and bail them out, big time (really, do they have a choice in the matter?).

    Meanwhile, I took a walk around the local Chevy dealer while having warranty work (yippie!!) done on my Malibu. Crapplastastic Cobalts for $17,500? Aveo sh*tmobiles for $16,000???! When I can go across the street and get Civics and Fits for less? WTF are they smoking?

    It would be nice if the federal bailout had some strings attached vis-a-vis product. As it is, I’m sure the next gen Aveo and Delta will be much improved, and may even match the Civic. The 2002 Civic, that is.

    I’m not holding my breath though.

  • avatar
    Axel

    menno :more troubling; ask yourself, do you know anyone running out to buy a GM product? i am in line for new car soon, will spend a decent amount. i would not even think about shopping a GM product (Chrysler for that matter).

    GM has two (count ’em, two) competitive vehicles in relevant classes. They have a fantastic midsize in the Malibu/Aura twins, and they have a pretty good large CUV in the Outacadaclave. I would recommend either of these for anyone looking for a midsize or a family people/stuff-mover. If they could just come up with a decent economical compact and sub-compact, and they just might, they’d have a competitive lineup well-positioned to compete with Honda and Toyota.

    That is, if they could ditch Pontiac, Buick, Saturn, and GMC and sell this lineup under one Chevy brand.

  • avatar
    geeber

    Axel: Crapplastastic Cobalts for $17,500? Aveo sh*tmobiles for $16,000???! When I can go across the street and get Civics and Fits for less? WTF are they smoking?

    I agree that the Civic is a much better car than the Cobalt, but the ones I’ve seen are not cheaper than a Cobalt.

    Every Civic sedan I see on the lot stickers for at least $19,000. Most are in the $20-21,000 range. Given last month’s blazing-hot sales for the Civic, I doubt that you will be able to wrangle a substantial discount on one.

  • avatar
    tech98

    whose recently refreshed product line did sweet FA for sales (down XXXX).

    Yes, downing a XXXX (Fourex) Australian beer after reviewing sales figures might provide temporary relief :-)

  • avatar
    Axel

    @ geeber

    Last time I looked on the lot here in town we had base Civics for just under $17k and Fits for around $15.5. The market may have changed a bit, though.

    I might be willing to hold my nose and drive an Aveo LS for $12K. Then again, how much does a Kia Rio go for with A/C and cruise?

  • avatar
    geeber

    Axel,

    Around here (Harrisburg, Pa.) base-model Civics are extremely rare…I don’t know if I’ve ever seen one on the lot. The only Civics I’ve seen are the LX sedans, or the EX and Si sedans and coupes.

  • avatar
    wsn

    Nice. Really nice.

    Disclosure:
    I drive a Civic and I own 400 HMC shares.

  • avatar
    wsn

    Some shareholders are frustrated. “You don’t get a sense that the General Motors crowd really gets it,” said Sister Patricia Daly, who represents the Sisters of Saint Dominic of Caldwell, N.J., a religious order that owns GM shares, in an interview on Friday. “Even in the 1990s, it was clear they weren’t going to be able to sell the big SUVs for 15 years without any impact.””

    If it were that obvious, why did the nuns hold GM shares?

    I mean, GM’s reliance on trucks was never a hidden agenda planned by Rick Wagoner. Everyone knows that. The GM investor are just as short-sighted as Rick. It is really unfair to criticize Rick for that at this stage.

    BTW, doesn’t GM offer the most 30mpg fuel-efficient car models? They should be fine.

  • avatar
    WMc

    With GM’s market share at only 19% last month, it seems quite laughable that the Justice Dept once considered breaking them up for being “too big”. All things considered, they might actually have been in a stronger position today if the government had got its wish.

  • avatar
    WalterRohrl

    geeber :

    I agree that the Civic is a much better car than the Cobalt, but the ones I’ve seen are not cheaper than a Cobalt.

    Every Civic sedan I see on the lot stickers for at least $19,000. Most are in the $20-21,000 range. Given last month’s blazing-hot sales for the Civic, I doubt that you will be able to wrangle a substantial discount on one.

    Geeber, I am one of those 50,000 or so people that bought a new Civic last month. No problem getting a deal. I paid less than sticker even after factoring in all fees and the 8.25% sales Tax here in CA. So yes, they are dealing – I contacted 10 local dealers and got offered great pricing from all of them. I was ready to pay cash and had already gotten a written quote that I was OK with when they offered to finance at 1.9% over 3 years with NO money down. Took the cash and stuck it in the bank, I’d rather have the liquidity and pay a total of under $600 for interest over 3 years. So far I am thrilled with the car, it is all I really need. And I consider myself a car guy – overall driving is a lot less fun when I think about gas at $4.50/gal around here.

  • avatar
    menno

    I can give you three short stories as to why GM is toast.

    First, let’s compare a 1991 Camry to a 1991 Grand Prix.

    Wow, Grand Prix – flash! Wow, STS version has a modern Dual Overhead Cam V6 with 240 hp! I’m goin’ with the flash and the power – plus GM gave me a deal!

    Fast forward 17 years. The Grand Prix is parked in the field, unwanted, by it’s second owner. It’d broken down too much, cost too much, didn’t last 100,000 miles. My buddy buys it for $450 to fix up for his 15 year old when said teen starts driving next year. He’s a mechanic, he can fix it. After all, it started and ran, they drove it for two weeks, the teen even practiced parallel parking in the back yard (a big country yard).

    Wrong. Mystery problem after mystery problem. Now the car won’t even go. Can’t find the problem. Hire in an expert, finally. He comes – wow I haven’t worked on these for 10 years. They didn’t last. They only built this engine for 4 years. Oh, once we get it running, you’d better put cam belts on it. It’s an interference motor and when (not if) the cam belt goes bang every 30,000 miles, it’ll collide the valves into the pistons and there goes the engine.

    Finally, after dragging half of his portable diagnostic electronic equipment, he can only “surmise” that it probably is the crank position sensor. $50 for the part, but it is an absolute bitch to fix. Oh yeah, to change the back 3 spark plugs (they surely need it), you virtually have to 1/2 remove the drivetrain and jack it up/forward.

    After visiting with my buddy while the mechanic was there, I went shopping, bumped into the ex-owner of a bookstore. Visiting. She expressed sorrow at losing her biz, hates working at the little neighborhood store because it doesn’t exercise her mind (for her, the glass is always 1/2 empty – she should be thankful she even has a job!) Why not apply at Borders in town? Oh, my car isn’t reliable enough to go far (15 miles?!). Oh yeah, I think; it’s an OLDSMOBILE, only about 10 years old. Maybe 8. Looks like 15.

    Third story. Go back to 3 years ago to my own son. First car, a “flash” Pontiac Grand Prix. $400. I knew it would not last too long, but hopefully would “do” for car #1 – the car which gets all the abuse and minor bangs and scrapes of a brand-new driver. Naw, it constantly broke. I mean CONSTANTLY broke. My son, working part time at a grocery while in High School, spent more on minor engine and other necessary mechanical repairs than the car cost, in a matter of 4 months.

    So, exasperated, he went and bought an equally old, equally delapidated (actually, looked worse) car which had already been in the (abusive) hands of at least two college students before him. A Toyota Corolla All-Trac station wagon.

    That little car not only hummed along for over a year, with minor and normal replacement part needs and the occasional minor repair from sheer age and prior abuse – but didn’t let he or our eldest son down, on their “big trek” from Michigan to California (to help build Habitat for Humanity houses – as a part-excuse to have a ROAD TRIP while they still can) and the car conducted itself like it was new for the entire trip.

    THAT is the reason why GM (and Chrysler) are going down.

    After a few decades, and looking at the lowest cost, most used up cars out there and figuring that all else being equal, you can actually depend upon a Toyota, a Honda, a Subaru – while GM and Chrysler products particularly constantly nickle-and-dime (or more to the point, $100 and $500) their last owners near to death.

    So when said people move up to “better” cars, after experiencing GM and Chrysler “reliability” in old cars, do you think they’re going to buy new GM or new Chrysler? Me neither.

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