We've been saying 2010 is the domestic industry's Holy Grail since 2007. Official confirmation comes at the bottom of a Detroit Free Press article entitled "Detroit 3 ready to focus on future." In fact, the TTAC narrative is all over this thing. "U.S. automakers didn't really adapt after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 sent gas prices above $3 a gallon and consumers started changing their purchasing habits — and it's costing them now. 'That's enough time to change, said Mark Warnsman, an auto analyst for Calyon Securities.'" And now… "All eyes are on 2010." Yes, "If the automakers can make it to the end of the decade, they should at least have a chance to start making money again." If? At least a chance? Seems Detroit's cheerleaders are running out of pep. "By 2010, economists are forecasting recovery in the U.S. housing market and that the economy, hopefully, will be back into growth mode… But after seeing record losses at Detroit's public automakers — $50 billion at GM over the last three years, $15 billion at Ford over the last two — optimism about 2010 is guarded. 'That's a make-or-break year,' economist at the Center for Automotive Research Sean McAlinden said. '2010 is the big question mark.'"
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And don’t forget, 2010 is the end of the oil companies’ tyranny over us, as that’s when we all start driving Volts and getting 100 mpg – if we ever even use any gas at all!
I’m going to be thin, muscular and handsome in 2010. No doubt about it. All hail the next decade and our automotive overlords (who I, for one, wish to welcome).
“My God, it’s full of stars.”
Does GM have the cash to make it to 2010?
What’s going to happen?
Something wonderful
I have no doubt that both manufacturers have excellent product in the pipeline. That won’t really be the issue.
The question is whether that product will even count if gas prices continue to trend the way they are.
Toyota will likely have over two million hybrids on the road by the time the Volt rolls off the showroom floor. The cost of this technology will likely be half of what it is now due to the economies of scale and lean production developments. Nissan, BMW, even Kia/Hyundai and a few Chinese manufacturers are moving towards hybrid technologies.
I do think that if GM has the hybrid technology ready at a a reasonable price (and the support from Washington to subsidize it), they will be able to pull through. That unfortunately is a very big ‘IF’.
Ford has a lot going for it. But they need to catch up in this area as well.
Chrysler is a non-issue. By the way… speaking of issues. Why hasn’t the ‘Latest News’ section put up something about Renault/Nissan’s joint venture with the State of Israel? Now that type of news will really generate the comments and clicks.
Remember folks that 2010 is when Diesel regulations for aftertreatment systems changes, hopefully for the “last” time.
After 2010, Diesels can only shoot kittens, rainbows, and sunshine out of the tail pipe, after sucking in dirty, nasty intake air. All kidding aside, with the kinds of aftertreatment technologies that are in development, we’re not too far away from having cleaner air coming out of the tailpipe then going in.
I beg to differ…2018 is the year.
YES, finally, after decades of lobbying by anyone who as an interest in car prices (ie everyone) and repeated reminders from the EU, the Dutch government has finally decided it will phase out the EU-deemed illegal ‘BPM’ (tax on cars and bikes) gradually until it’s completely gone in 2018. Meaning most cars will finally have the same price (ie 1000s/10000s of Euros cheaper) as in Germany.
Also the tax on owning a car that was until now based on the weight of the car will be abolished.
The bad news is taxes will now be levied on the personal distance one drives in his/her car on yearly basis, and ultimately this will have to compensate for the lost tax revenue, but still, NO extra taxes on the cost price or weight anymore.
Basically it gets significantly cheaper to buy and own a car (the more expensive and the heavier, the more difference in price) but (even) more expensive to actually drive in a car.
Expect a surge in sales of Audi/BMW/Mercedes/SUVs etc. Also expect a surge in sales of car covers, for expensive cars standing in garages never being driven.
I think I’ll be starting that exclusive car dealership now…
In the year 2010, GM will still be trucking along with the Aveo while Ford will have the Fiesta/Mazda2; a year later a new Focus and Escape. Saturn will be getting the new Astra, but Ford seems to understand the future automotive landscape a little better.
Is the Astra the only competent small car sold by GM in NA?
In defense to some of GM’s planning, their product debuting shortly in Europe will underpin a lot of their next generation of vehicles here in the U.S. Although, for that, I’d say GM’s year is probably 2011.
Ford has some better stuff coming sooner: Fusion/Milan/MKZ and their hybrids, Taurus and Fiesta. The new Focus and Escape should get here right in time for GM’s new small cars in mid to late 2010. But both have the product coming. I would say Ford is actually further advanced than GM (which is interesting as everyone assumed GM had the upper hand just a year ago), but both also have a good set of technologies coming (Ecoboost and Ecotec, plug-in hybrids, smaller diesels). It’s true, 2010 is the year, but we’ll start seeing a lot of it, especially at Ford, in 2009 but it won’t settle until early next-decade.
Importantly, though, 2011-2012 is the timeframe when we start talking about sufficient penetration to guarantee sustainable profitability. So, it’s not just about surviving until 2010 (although, you get breathing room then), it’s about surviving until 2012 when their line-ups are pretty much caught up with their competitors from their B-cars to their already competitive pick-up and CUV offerings. Ford can make it with their cash. GM… well, we’ll see.
@ Brendan:
Astra may be a “competent” small car, true. But since the fall of the dollar against the Euro, the Astra is an $18k+ small car. A Versa looks a lot like an Astra, and is $2k less.
GM needs to fix the Aveo so it gets MPG closer to the hottest-selling GM model – the Metro!
No doubt about it; there’ll be pie in the sky, by and by.
Oh, and a correction. The article says “By 2010 … the economy, hopefully, will be back into growth mode.” Actually, the latest statistics show the nation’s GDP still in “growth mode” as it has been for years. But I suppose in Detroit it’s raining and they assume the skies are dark everywhere.
If there’s one constant i’ve learned, it’s that the U.S. automakers will always be on the brink, new improved competitive product will always be right around the corner, and headlines about both will always be written.
Even fifty years from now it will still be the same.
Now’s their chance. With Toyota’s quality slipping and current horrible products that won’t get a re-do until 2012-2013, GM has the potential of getting back in the game!
I did my monthly-or-so Sunday car lot survey today. I live near a 35K or so town in Indiana with dealers for the 2.8 plus Honda, Toyota and Hyundai. The Chevy dealer has several Cobalts and Aveos, the Pontiac dealer has several G5s, the Toyota dealer has several Corollas and Yaris, but the Honda dealer has no Fits and the only two Civics are SIs. So I wonder at Wagoner’s latest turnaround of his turnaround. All he can do short term is add a 3rd shift at Lordstown and for the Malibu; to what benefit? So the dealers can bump their inventory of Cobalts to the level of Silverados and TrailBlazers? From what I read of Honda’s plans, they’ll put more distance between themselves and GM in the next few years. Taking the Aveo as an indicator, it seems Wagoner et al view small cars as a nuisance rather than an opportunity, and more small junk isn’t going to solve their problem.
Well, Rick Wagoner and Bob Lutz will still be around …. :-)
Anyone want to compare an Aveo to a Fit or a Cobalt to a Civic? Honda has quite niche right now. It’s not all roses, (the Pilot and Ridgeline come to mind).
I do hope GM can turn their N. American operations around. I look for the Cobalt to be replaced with a US or Mexican built Astra. The Aveo should be retired or replaced with a Corsa.
Subaru, Nissan, and Mitsubishi will have electrics for sale in the states in 2010. What do the big three have to compete with that? They didn’t see the small economy cars in the 1970’s. Looks like they won’t see this one either. Sleeping at the wheel and a little late to the party(again).
Mitsubishi could even start selling the MiEV in 2009 if they felt so inclined.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=USfrtnr9Jmw
$5 diesel is nearly here. $5 gasoline is nearly certain this summer. I imagine MiEV’s would sell quite well considering they would have the entire market to themselves.
How about some electric Smarts? 34-37 mpg is pretty weak compared to 58 mpg in a 1993 Geo Metro XFI!
I’ve never bought a new car before, but I’m pretty sure I’d rush out to the Mitsubishi dealer and buy a brand new Eclipse EV if they were only available:
http://www.mitsubishi-motors.com/corporate/about_us/technology/environment/e/ev.html
Electrics are approaching like a high speed freight train! Gasoline cars will be antiques! Relics of the past.
Here’s some propaganda if needed:
http://youtube.com/watch?v=9Bfz_x9e2Fo
I imagine the wealthy middle east countries will just be more like the poorer middle east countries once they stop selling oil in the volume and price they currently do.
They brought this on themselves though for not raising production to meet demand. Likely miffed at Bush and are doing this to spite him and get him bad poll ratings. When we get a new president, the prices might somehow magically drop… and kill the EV’s once again. Though in India and China where pollution is high, they might thrive there.
Not to worry, the world is going to end in 2012
g48135 wrote:
“Remember folks that 2010 is when Diesel regulations for aftertreatment systems changes, hopefully for the “last” time.
After 2010, Diesels can only shoot kittens, rainbows, and sunshine out of the tail pipe, after sucking in dirty, nasty intake air. All kidding aside, with the kinds of aftertreatment technologies that are in development, we’re not too far away from having cleaner air coming out of the tailpipe then going in.”
Hey, g? It’s already the case with not only the Prius, the natural gas Civic and the Hybrid Civic but also most California emissions cars, right now. Assuming they are driven in polluted areas, of course. Yep, the exhaust is CLEANER than the intake air. Ain’t science amazing?
Volvo even coat some of their radiators to change ozone into oxygen as the car motors along.
Robert, the world is going to end in 2015. (Tongue in cheek). (?)
The Mayans didn’t understand leap-days.
http://www.worldnetdaily.com/index.php?pageId=63076
By 2010 we will be 2 more years into the Post Peak Oil world. Jeffrey Brown’s Export Land Model will have two more years of decline under its belt with oil available for export declining at an accelerating rate.
This implies that crude oil and therefore gas prices will be increasing at an accelerating rate as wealthy oil importing countries try to outbid each other for the shrinking crude supply available.
The model changes coming from the 2.8 will be too little too late. The die is cast. They waited to long to adjust to the new reality and if they survive, it will be as mere shadows of their former selves.
Other auto companies will be struggling too, but have a better chance since they are not as late to fuel efficiency game.
The bad news is taxes will now be levied on the personal distance one drives in his/her car on yearly basis, and ultimately this will have to compensate for the lost tax revenue, but still, NO extra taxes on the cost price or weight anymore.
Is this just in netherlands or all over the EU?
@David Holzman…
For now, just for the Netherlands. However, it might well be followed by others, since the EU intends to phase out price differences in member countries for the same products as much as possible.
Historically, every EU country has it’s own taxing measures on cars and fuel, most of them are old measures, for instance the ‘BPM’ originated in 1978.
Some countries also just have VAT (like Germany, Italy) but many countries have special added taxes on cars on top of that, like BPM in the Netherlands, which used to be 45,2% of the factory sales price.
The Netherlands always used to be the country with the highest taxes on car sales in the EU behind Denmark, where the tax could be about 170% of the factory price (mind you, the Danish do get very good public health care, Netherlands Meh). But many other EU countries have extra taxes on car sales.
The EU now though has spoken out against those, even going as far as saying it’s illegal to have those taxes levied on car sales. I assume that is since it messes with competition, because obviously your more expensive BMW will be taxed several 1000s more than your Opel Astra…making the price difference artificially large.
This goes for the Netherlands but given the intentions of the EU I would imagine other countries would be affected too. However the whole thing in the Netherlands was so complicated (especially when importing a car, you would have to pay percentages of BPM based on the age of the car in months and the price it would have had been if when it was sold new in the Netherlands, in theory including all separate options…yawn) I guess it couldn’t be maintained either way.
However, in the end this will not mean cars all of the sudden will be cheaper in Europe than in the US, because even without extra taxes but only VAT, in Germany cars are still more expensive than in the US for some reason (even if you’d say 1 EUR=1 dollar, which still seems to be the real purchasing power, although that is seriously messed up in theory) and cars will never get any cheaper than German/Italian prices in Europe.
Right now, if you would factor in the exchange rate you could buy an M3 in the US for the price of a base model 318 in the Netherlands…
Let’s not forget the MAJOR ball dropped by the Detroit 2.8.
During the Clinton administration, the Powers That Be decided to go ahead and spend God only knows how much of OUR tax moneys in a show of corporate welfare, by handing money to the Detroit 3 under the “supercar initiative” in order to develop an 80 mpg mid-sized hybrid car – each.
Of course the numbskulls in Congress and the White House didn’t bother stipulating that if the companies accepted these fat checks (and they did accept the fat checks), that the cars had to actually be put into production!
Now, let’s “pretend” that the Detroit 3 actually came up with solutions and viable cars which could – say – get only 1/2 of the goal. A 40 mpg mid-sized hybrid car. (The Chrysler car had a gas turbine generator set which never did get connected to the hybrid drivetrain, apparently only running for “sound effects” while the battery would motivate the car short distances while being shown to “the press”)
But let’s play “pretend” and say the Detroit 3 actually didn’t simply P!SS the money away (which they did).
Let’s also assume that the cars needed to be developed within the 8 years of the Clinton administration, then tooled up for production.
Let’s assume a typically “Detroit” scenario of needing about 3 year to put a car into production.
That would have had the cars on the road some time in 2003 for the 2004 model year.
The Detroit 3 would have looked pretty darned smart to have competition to the Prius (albiet, some 10 to 20 % less efficient than…), and would have pre-dated the Camry Hybrid, the Altima Hybrid, and the failed Accord Hybrid.
In fact, late 2003 for the 2004 model year was the exact time that Prius grew up and became a viable car.
Wasn’t it? (Answer: yes).
Instead, the Detroit 3 pocketed the money, laughed all the way to the bank, heaped derision and scorn on Honda and Toyota for developing hybrid cars while gas was $1 or $2 a gallon, and did not look past their noses into a potential future where oil would become more and more scarce.
Interestingly enough, I recall reading in 1974 (34 years ago), that American Motors executives had sat down and looked at long-term trends, which led them to do some highly intelligent moves, such as:
-purchase the rights to an Audi overhead camshaft four cylinder engine (which did see use in some 1977, 1978 and 1979 AMC Gremlins and AMC Concords from 1978).
-concluded an agreement to distribute Renault cars in the United States (and then encouraged Renault to invest in AMC)
-co-developed an economical car line for late 1983 introduction (the AMC Renault Alliance, which did actually win Motor Trend’s Car Of The Year for 1984)
-co-developed a very viable mid-sized luxury car to sell alongside the very popular Jeep Cherokee, building a “just in time” plant surrounded by supplier plants in Ontario (the car was introduced as the AMC Renault Premier in 1986 for 1987, and almost immediately was rebadged the Eagle Premier)
Funny peculiar how AMC executives could see the handwriting on the wall 34 years ago and acted upon it – in comparison to Detroit 3 executives.
Funny peculiar how AMC executives could see the handwriting on the wall 34 years ago and acted upon it – in comparison to Detroit 3 executives.
Only they didn’t, cause they went bankrupt…
The Detroit 3 should have done better anyway though. It’s not that hard to come up with the idea that at some point when China and India would reach a certain point of economical development, oil would become scarce and thus way more expensive.
Apparently they had thought that point was still years away…
Hi, JJ. AMC never went bankrupt, and it didn’t even go out of business.
It’s just that the French displayed their usual amount of spine (AFTER spending tons of money on the new Canadian plant and all-new Premier car line and Cherokee) then pulled out and sold out to Chrysler just before the SUV craze started to make Jeep some serious money.
The reason that the AMC Renault (immediately rebadged Eagle) Premier didn’t succeed was because Chrysler didn’t really want it, didn’t spend any marketing money and ignored it; it was the red-headed, left-handed step-child only kept in production due to a contract to purchase advanced all-alloy OHV V6 engines from the PRV (Peugeot-Renault-Volvo) factory in France. All Chrysler wanted was Jeep. And the new Canadian plant (which is the plant in which the RWD Chrysler 300, Dodge Charger and Dodge Challenger are now being built, I might add).
So, of course, Chrysler eventually got their way and killed off the Eagle brand.
But Jeep still exists, and since AMC purchased Jeep from Kaiser Industries in 1970, in a sense, AMC still exists.
In fact, there is a lot of truth in the statement that it was the AMC executives which came along with the deal, that made Chrysler the envy of many car companies in the 1990’s, and gave Chrysler a lot of advanced cars (admittedly as well as some real unreliable dogs, like the Neon).
OK, 2010. Is this model year 2010 (i.e., 2009 calendar year) or the actual calendar year 2010? The way things are looking by 2009 we’ll be well on our way to bigger economic growth (larger than the small growth we have now).