The public plan is 19 percent and change. That is what everything is being based on
GM board member Steven Girsky repeats Fritz Henderson’s assumption that GM’s market share will be stable and predictable . Of course, if that’s the case, someone’s got some ‘splainin to do about the last 30 years. Luckily though, we’ve got some good news for Messrs Girsky and Henderson. According to Autoobserver:
Edmunds.com, the premier online resource for automotive information, has preliminarily forecast General Motors (GM) retail market share for October to rise to 22.4 percent from the third-quarter retail average of 19.1 percent
Wait, Edmunds’ forecast is based on unique pageviews for GM models at Edmunds.com? Never mind then. Let’s go instead to TTAC’s unique sales forecasting and analysis department and see if GM will hit 22.4 percent market share in October. Forecasters? Shakes vigorously. What’s that? “Signs point to no?” Aw, too bad.
No mention of how accurate Edmunds’ formula has been?
It really doesn’t matter what GM’s share is for any given month. In Sept 08 they bought/fleet packed up to 29%. That mattered in what way?
GM’s month to month share fluctuates more than any other major. In late 07 they fleet packed three straight months and the MSM and run of the mill car journo’s (like Edmunds) were all excited about a “turnaround”. Wonder how that worked out.
What is the long term trend?
I also have my money on gravity.
Bunter
General Motors will probably end 2009 with 14-16% of a 9.350M market.
General Motors will probably end 2010 with 12-14% of a 10.625M market.
I want what Edmunds is smoking.
Last months 4 core were 18.7 and Old and New combined were 20. This month is looking better than last from what I hear. 19 isn’t a stretch.
If the past is any indication, General Motors will channel-stuff as many cars and trucks as it takes to paint whatever picture they want you to believe.
The REAL numbers are taken from new car registrations. Look for it.
By the way, the North Kent Rail-to-Autocarrier lot is empty. The South lot is at about 20% capacity. Don’t remember the Kent, WA lots? That’s where a BN engine speared a Caddy as a hood ornament about 6 months ago.
There is no past at GM. Thats dead gone doesn’t exist anymore. Channel stuffing ain’t happening. In fact channel stuffing ain’t gonna happen even if someone wanted it to because theres a serious steel shortage. The steel reduction during the downturn is 4 months minimum from comming back online. When many of the steel furnaces went offline the refractory bricks in the furnaces cracked and have to be replaced. Once thats done the furnaces take 3 months to come up to temp before a single run of steel can be made.
I like Comparing Old GM and new GM to past empires. Trying to get GM back to even a 30% market share is like asking Rome, Germany, or Japan to become an empire again.
Steel is a world-wide commodity. Your order will be on your receiving dock two weeks after your check clears.
Sorry to hear about your bricks.
we want the kind that doesn’t rust :) Oh Snap!