Call me a cro-magnon cave dweller, but whenever I read these “car of the future” stories, I am reminded of a discussion I had with a Volkswagen engineer, some time in the late 70s. I was a wide-eyed copywriter and believed anything.
“I am working on the car for the year 2000,” the engineer announced.
“Wow! What will it be?” the wide-eyed copywriter asked in awe.
“For one thing, it will have four tires. A steering wheel. And guess what: A combustion engine.” It had expected wings. History did prove the engineer right.
That episode whizzes through my mind again as I read a story in this morning’s Nikkei [sub]. It reports that hybrids, which supposedly are everywhere, account for less than 2 per cent of the world passenger-vehicle market. J.D. Power predicts that this year, worldwide hybrid sales will again miss the 1 million mark. Total 2010 world hybrid volume is estimated at 934,000. It’s up from 728,000 in 2009, but largely on overall industry growth. Lest we forget, 2009 was the car industry’s worst year in decades.
More than two thirds of the world’s hybrids come from Toyota. When asked about the not quite a million worldwide, Toyota spokesman Paul Nolasco quips: “At least it’s a million more than 13 years ago.” Toyota launched the world’s first mass produced hybrid, the Prius, in December 1997. So far, it has sold 2 million in total and is the world’s best selling hybrid. It is also Japan’s top selling car.
Given the above, it is interesting that this article, originally penned by the Financial Times, is distributed widely by The Nikkei. About half of this year’s hybrid growth comes from Japan, where hybrid sales were powered by tax incentives. No more of those since September.
The U.S. comes second to Japan in hybrid-affinity. Here, J.D. Power forecasts total sales to reach 315,000 this year, up 8 per cent from 292,000 in 2009. The overall car market will grow 12 percent, hybrids are losing market share. 315,000 hybrids into 11.5 million cars expected to sell in the U.S. in 2010 makes for a total hybrid market share of 2.7 percent.
Europe may even be considered as hybrid hostile. JD Power predicts that EU hybrid sales will reach 107,000 units this year, a mere 0.7 percent of the European market. Now you understand why EU carmakers, when it comes to alternative propulsion, are a lot of talk and precious little market action.
In the emerging markets of China, India et al, hybrids are pretty much unsalable. BYD sold 230 F3DM hybrids this year in China. Toyota’s Prius never got above 4,000 units in the world’s largest car market.
“There have been so many small, efficient gas-engine cars launched in the last year, that in pure dollars and cents terms it doesn’t make sense to buy a hybrid any more,” said Jesse Toprak of Truecar.com. “You have to drive it for 10 years just to make up the premium you pay over a gas engine.”
Says The Nikkei: “The modest sales projections highlight the extent to which many consumers are reluctant to pay more for new-technology cars, even if they promise lower emissions or fuel costs.”
Something to keep in mind when making wide-eyed predictions for the success of EVs. Hybrids have no built-in range anxiety, they don’t have the chicken or egg problem of a charging infrastructure. Just like EVs, hybrids cost a little more, and this remains an impediment to market success. EVs cost a whole lot more and come with a huge can of worms.
There is another thing this cro-magnon writer has learned the hard way in the industry: Customers lie through their teeth when it comes to the environment. In studies, they want to protect the planet at all costs. In the showroom, they make their own little cost-benefit analysis. If there is too much cost and not enough benefit, they won’t bite. If environmental responsibility comes knocking, customers quietly tell the environmental responsibility: “What can me alone do for the environment? Go away.” In the emerging markets, and that’s where the growth is, they want mobility with a roof over their heads at a price they can afford.
With gas at less than $4 – $5 a gallon in the US – Hybrids do not pay for themselves compared to buying a mid – high 30’s mpg fuel efficient car with much less maintenance costs and much cheaper repairs. In fact instead of hybrids, if Toyota or Honda were smart – we’d have start / stop ability diesel powered cars that get high 50’s mpg and low 40’s for less money. Imagine how much better those diesel engines would be if the billions in R&D was spent there on a proven technology and not building a hybrid drivetrain from ground up. 2% of the world car market…now let’s compare how much % of R&D spent by the big hybrid makers…I’m betting it was significantly more than 2% and I doubt either company has even come close to recouping any ROI.
My Prius has had less maintenance costs in the 70,000 miles I’ve had it than any other car I’ve ever owned. Not sure why you think some regular car would be better on maintenance, I’d expect to have had a brake job or 2 in a normal car with this same mileage, especially in stop and go city commuting.
Except when the battery goes (and most manufacturers give a 80,000 to 100,000 mile warranty on the battery), maintenance costs are not higher. Brake jobs should be less frequent due to regenerative braking. It’s the higher cost of the car itself that makes people stop and ponder.
I’m betting it was significantly more than 2% and I doubt either company has even come close to recouping any ROI.
You bet no doubt based on your in depth knowledge of Toyota’s financials.
@”Except when the battery goes”
Taxi companies reporting stats on the Prius show maintenance costs half a normal car and batteries going 250 000 – 300 000 miles.
The replies to your post show the biggest issue with hybrids; the owners themselves. There is a near fanatical support of their vehicles and these less than 2% of car owners, who own anti-cars, designed for people who hate cars, feel compelled to convert the rest of the world to their way of thinking.
Never mind that the amount of energy needed to build a hybrid with Nickel-Hydride batteries and car more than offsets any evil oil savings. Never mind the cars are underpowered. Never mind that the average hybrid cannot meet the needs of tens of millions of vehicle owners in North America either due to the number of people they need to carry, loads they haul, towing requirements, or because the kind of driving they do don’t yield higher benefits that can be found driving short urban routes.
Nope – you must all join us – like Invasion of the Body Snatchers – JOIN US. It’s the future. Even though less than 2% of the world have joined us since the first hybrid hit the showroom in 1997. There is a reason for it…I for one am not buying.
Taxi companies reporting stats on the Prius show maintenance costs half a normal car and batteries going 250 000 – 300 000 miles.
I certainly hope the batteries would last 250,000 miles in a high mileage daily driver. As for the overall maintenance costs being “half a normal car”, show us the proof, please. I’ll buy that brake pads last a bit longer, but to imply anything beyond that is pure wishful thinking.
What about the $5k premium to buy a hybrid over a comparable fuel efficient car (has anyone ever broken even in out of pocket expense)? What do you do when you have to replace the regenerative brake system (can a simple home mechanic like me to the brakes on the car for $50 out of pocket expense and use normal tools and an hour of my time)? How are you saving the environment when your hybrid adds significantly more greenhouse gas emissions to produce the vehicle? How does a hybrid’s battery not degrade in performance over time like all other batteries? Why does my Gov’t have to credit you back money by reducing your taxes in order to get you to buy one thereby increasing its debt? If fuel efficiency is so important to hybrid owners – why are you not clamoring for diesel powerplants in them (TDI diesels gets as good / better mpg on highway than hybrids but only falls short in city driving)?
From an economics standpoint, a 2% take rate after 10 years from billions spent in R&D is absolutely terrible. Imagine how much better Toyota or Honda’s standard fare cars would be if those billions were spent on it’s volume selling cars. Imagine its entire fleet (instead of an insignificant % of hybrids) getting focus to have clean fuel efficient gas / diesel engines that get 25% better fuel economy than they do now through: more liberal use of advanced construction and lightweight materials (new processes and automation are coming down the line to produce carbon fiber for less); more diesel engine options (diesel fuel had 33% more energy than gasoline), wider adoption of direct injection technology; use of smaller displacement engines with no compromise forced induction (variable vane turbos, etc.); un-intrusive start/stop technology across the entire lineup; better aerodynamic designs; less loss of feel for a cars driving soul; etc.
@”As for the overall maintenance costs being “half a normal car”, show us the proof,”
http://www.driving.ca/green/story.html?id=7385385b-732d-4ac6-8513-8289842450df
“In addition, he said the vehicle costs only one-third the usual expenses on maintenance over a 24-month period because it has fewer wear-and-tear components. His current Prius recently surpassed 400,000 kilometres with no hybrid component failures.”
In case you think that a fluke, here is a similar story from Australia. This company is running 32 Prius in their fleet:
http://www.caradvice.com.au/14639/toyota-prius-the-taxi-champion/
“We’ve have had almost three years great service from it, we obviously track our costs very closely and our reports show the Prius consumes half the petrol of other vehicles in our fleet and also half the service costs – it is quite amazing.” Taxi operator Graham Boundy, who owns Black and White Taxis in Cairns, said.
Hybrids only make sense in one setting and that is where the majority of driving is City only where hybrids are proven to get better mpg. They do this mainly b/c they have start/stop technology. However, if Honda/Toyota and others would smart up and introduce this feature in their standard cars (with the ability to defeat it by the user) w/o losing running a/c when stopped (akin to Chevy’s mild hybrids) – this would actually be a better societal benefit as all cars now will save gas in city driving than a small % of hybrid drivers only having this feature.
@”Hybrids only make sense in one setting and that is where the majority of driving is City”
I don’t drive a Hybrid and likely won’t until I am too old too shift because I love MT, but this again is more anti-hybrid nonsense.
The Prius holds the title for the best Highway MPG in the USA, by quite a margin, so it makes sense with any driving pattern. This isn’t just the EPA, the Prius beats the VW TDIs in highway MPG in every comparison test and the Prius does it while running on cheap regular unleaded.
@Bytor
You’re exactly right, but remember the Prius is sort of the exception. Most hybrids have very similar city/hwy mpg, with the latter number only slightly better than the vehicle’s pure ICE counterpart. So for most hybrids vehicles, the only true material advantage is city driving.
If you stuck the previous 90hp tdi into the body of a Prius, you’d blow the car’s mpg number out of the water. As it stands, the current tdi is tuned for a combination of performance and economy, vs the Prius which is purely designed for economy.
@Ash.
Yes the Prius is the exception, it actually delivers ridiculously good fuel economy everywhere and that is why is leads hybrid sales.
But while I agree a hybrid system will not have direct impact while you are cruising on the highway, what it does do is enable using a more efficient engine cycle (Atkinson) that wouldn’t be used in the gas counterpart because of its weak torque characteristics that the Hybrid boost covers up. A great many Hybrids use Atkinson cycle engines, AFAIK, no regular gas powered car does. When tested, just the gas engine in the Prius, delivered a peak efficiency of 37% and 34% over a broad operating range. These would be good numbers for a passenger car diesel.
@Bytor
Sounds about right…I believe most ICE return sub-25% efficiency numbers. The Prius is a great flagship for the hybrid movement (I’m even slightly considering the new MPV version for my wife when it comes out), but apart from the Prius, most people don’t see enough relative efficiency in exchange for the costs. If you really crunch the numbers (ignoring any notions of trying to save the planet), fuel often comes out well below depreciation, and often slightly below insurance, in the overall cost of owning a car. You really have to be motivated beyond economics to make the decision, in most cases.
Ironically, the most effective application of hybrid economy is in the largest SUVs, where a few extra mpg translates into a massive amount of fuel savings. But that’s a lot harder notion to sell than a super-efficient car like the Prius. I’m surprised there’s not more of a marketing push there…
HoldenSSVSE wrote: There is a near fanatical support of their vehicles and these less than 2% of car owners, who own anti-cars, designed for people who hate cars, feel compelled to convert the rest of the world to their way of thinking.
That’s OK because you’ve perfectly demonstrated their counterparts, the fanatical haters who have probably never even driven or tried one but feel the need to dump on them at any opportunity.
Priuses are reliable. I’m sorry if this fact offends you. This has been corroborated by TrueDelta, by Consumer Reports, by owners here, and now by taxi companies that run the hell out of them and see them as business assets that they have no emotional attachment to. What more do you need? Probably no amount of facts will convince you.
Btw I don’t own and have never driven a Prius. I drive a V-8 Japanese luxobarge from the 1990s. But that doesn’t make me feel threatened by the presence or success of the Prius. Variety is the spice of our roads.
DCBruce nailed it below when he wrote:
Rather, we are privileged to live in a time where manufacturing is sufficiently sophisticated (unlike, say, the days of the Ford Model T: any color you want as long as it’s black) that consumers have a wide range of choices, tailored to their needs and preferences.
I don’t get VW’s diesel EPA #s saying they get low 40’s mpg. I’ve personally driven and been in some that get easily > 50mpg on the highway with no modifications to them. In fact most comparison tests I’ve seen with Hybrids versus Diesel – on the highway the Prius lost all its mpg advantages to the more efficient diesel.
http://editorial.autos.msn.com/article.aspx?cp-documentid=1153436
http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2004-06-10-diesel-vs-hybrid_x.htm
http://www.insideline.com/volkswagen/jetta/2009/comparison-test-2009-toyota-prius-vs-2009-volkswagen-jetta-tdi.html
@”on the highway the Prius lost all its mpg advantages to the more efficient diesel.”
2 or your 3 links all show the Prius getting better city and better highway MPG.
The one link that shows a better showing for the TDI is the old versions of both cars.
On the new versions , the Prius became more efficient and the TDI became less efficient, so the tables have turned on the highway. Such that in current 2010 cars the Prius beats the TDI by a large amount in the City and a small amount on the highway.
BTW, EPA numbers for highway aren’t Pure highway, they still do several stops, this is why the TDI numbers will be more affected down, it is also why everyone beats the highway number in every car.
Consumer reports does a pure highway test at 65MPH and IIRC, the TDI scored 49mpg, while the Prius achieved 55 MPG.
@Bytor
The plural of anecdote is not data. Especially when the anecdotes are selectively spoon-fed to the media by Toyota’s marketing department.
Even in this handful of gushy testimonials, there is no explanation of how the Prius incurs “half the service costs” of other cars. I suppose it uses self-cleaning oil filters, diamond-coated tires, and spark plugs sprinkled with fairy dust?
Like I said… wishful thinking.
Don1967, so you think the taxi company with 32 Prius is lying about their maintenance cost?
The current Prius has no belts to replace (anywhere), is very easy on the brakes, has no clutches to wear, it is a VERY low maintenance vehicle.
My current car (not a Hybrid) is 11 years old, and I have owned it the whole time. The biggest regular maintenance cost is brakes.
Here is a more comprehensive study, check page 17 for maintenance:
www.toronto.ca/taf/pdf/hybrid–taxi-oct09.pdf
Hey, in London, gas is currently over $9 per gallon. At that kind of price, Hybrids and EVs make a *lot* of sense.
Thing is, I don’t think we’re going to see anybody raise taxes to triple the price of gas in the US.
@jaje,
[i]”2 or your 3 links all show the Prius getting better city and better highway MPG.
The one link that shows a better showing for the TDI is the old versions of both cars.
On the new versions , the Prius became more efficient and the TDI became less efficient, so the tables have turned on the highway. “[/i]
Ouch.
Too many backyard mechanics felt threatened by modern technology.
BTW, if you think you can tear down and rebuild a modern Di diesel engine in a shed, good luck!
“In the emerging markets, and that’s where the growth is, they want mobility with a roof over their heads at a price they can afford.”
Hasn’t this been the market that has been emerging for about a hundred years?
“Europe may even be considered as hybrid hostile.”
This is partly because many European countries (Germany, for example) tax diesel fuel less then gasoline. Thus, people looking for fuel efficiency spend their extra money on a diesel engine instead of on a hybrid powertrain.
And partly because an European diesel consumes less fuel than an hybrid.
Customers lie through their teeth when it comes to the environment.
Not just there but everywhere, tax filings, the weight in your drivers license, No officer I was just going 5miles over , darling I barely had a drink last night etc…
Toyota has shown that customers are willing to pay a bit of a premium for what the want, excellent gas mileage in a well build interesting car. Just like other groups of customers can be suckered into paying more than a hybrid premium for, sport tuning, leather seats, gps…
If the package is not interesting, minor benefit with the mileage, or a poorly designed car you overall the manufacturer winds up with the next Insight.
With the relatively low gas prices we have efficiency is unfortunately not the first deciding factor, but if it is a package of an appealing package it will sell
Pricing is the one of the main problems of hybrids in Europe: a fully loaded Corolla diesel costs about 2000€ less than the base Prius, and both of the cars get about the same real world MPG. There’s really no point in buying the Prius.
Oh, and diesel fuel also costs much less than gas in most places here.
Anytime someone starts up a diesel, I instinctively want to take cover.
Its like waking up to a fat German woman screaming expletives into your ear. Every morning.
Europe is smart and implemented a gas tax to force customers to demand fuel efficient cars with diesel engines. In US our politicians won’t risk their backside trying to change demand so we force automakers to increase supply of fuel efficient cars for buyers who don’t want them via CAFE. Which is terrible as there are loopholes for lobbyists paid rights such as e85 suvs that get 10mpg on e85 but get a rating of 25mpg with CAFE. Diesel cars are cheaper to make, more fuel efficient when running compared to any gas engine of equivalent size, have more torque which makes the car move, etc.
Europe is plain stupid allowing diesels to run much more dirtier via lower emission standards. This is the main reason diesels there are so fuel efficient, even though not as efficient as a well-designed hybrid like Prius.
So, theres the answer to your question – hybrids are fuel efficient and at the same time very very clean. Diesels to be that efficient need to be dirty. And in Europe they are.
Hybrids are only going to occupy a small segment of the market. Its always been predicted as such.
The problem I see here is that we are falling back into shallow short-term thinking. We’ve seen that crude oil prices fluctuate dramatically, and that in the US market there is a natural propensity towards larger, heavier, vehicles. At the same time gas prices dictate the ebb and flow of vehicle demand from light-vehicles to B/C-segment cars.
Right now there are global inflationary forces. Especially in the US, with their QE, in China and Europe. This means that in the near to mid-term gas prices will raise. Over the long-term it is not a one-dimensional decision to invest in either gas-guzzlers or green-vehicles.
Rather hybrids are a method to diversify risks in an market with large fluctuations in demand. Ultimately, any successful automaker needs to have a large spectrum of products to be sucessful; Prius to a Tundra, Volt to a Silverado, Leaf to a Titan. We can extrapolate this thinking further into market regions and segments; Etios to a Ractis, et cetra
… but we shouldn’t distill this into saying ‘hybrids are a speck’, or EVs are a failure. The majority of the market is going to be in the middle of the curve. Standard, cheap technology; ICE. But it doesn’t mean that automakers shouldn’t consider each end of the spectrum.
With plenty of current compacts hitting 40 mpg on the highway, there’s less and less reason to get a hybrid car that is much more complex (read: potential issues outside of the warranty period) and doesn’t offer much additional marginal benefit in terms of real world fuel costs.
You can’t make blanket statements; It depends on the Hybrid.
The Prius HSD replaces the transmission and is simpler and more robust than a regular transmission and real world maintenance reports from taxis companies show much lower maintenance costs than normal cars.
Ahem. Prius transmission failing at 72k miles? That makes even a Honda automatic behind a V6 engine seem tough.
http://priuschat.com/forums/gen-ii-prius-main-forum/33069-2001-prius-transmission-failure.html
Try googleing any car brand and premature transmission failure and you will get a hit. Seems like you might even get more than a few for first generation Prius.
Overall it seem like the prius has not been trouble prone, try reading the 200K plus thread on Priuschat seems like many drivers got there without much more than oil changes, light bulbs and tires.
Overall it seem like the prius has not been trouble prone, try reading the 200K plus thread on Priuschat seems like many drivers got there without much more than oil changes, light bulbs and tires.
Oh brother. Going over to chevyavalanchefanclub and read about 200K mile GMT800 Chevy Avalanches. Almost any consumer vehicle in the 2000’s can make it to 200K miles with the original tranny still intact. The Prius is a well designed vehicle, except for the computer programming on the brakes, stalling for no reason, horrific performance in the snow, the gas pedal, the floor mat, and a growing “hybrid tax” as more and more cars in North America get 40 MPG and better for less money.
Read any owner website and you’ll find the two extremes, endless complaints about issues and raves of perfect vehicles – the truth lies between.
Started well but lost me at the floor mat nonsense.
With plenty of current compacts hitting 40 mpg on the highway
The problem is that in an urban stop and go commute they drop to the teens and single digits for mileage. When you have 10 to 15 miles of a commute each way in that sort of traffic, it starts to add up. A Prius will get 50+ in that kind of environment. That info comes from first hand experience and not inaccurate EPA tests or armchair journalists.
@”Ahem. Prius transmission failing at 72k miles?”
Nice cherry picking Sam. That was a first Gen when they used chain drive.
Currently there is no chain, it is 100% permanently engaged gears, there are no bands, no clutches, no gear engagement mechanisms. The system is far more robust than any transmission, that it replaces.
With plenty of current compacts hitting 40 mpg on the highway, there’s less and less reason to get a hybrid car
Unless you want reasonable passenger and cargo space. Those 40mpg cars are much smaller inside than the Prius is, and aren’t particularly quick.
HoldenSSVSE
December 14th, 2010 at 3:15 am
The Prius is a well designed vehicle, except for the computer programming on the brakes, stalling for no reason, horrific performance in the snow, the gas pedal, the floor mat, and a growing “hybrid tax” as more and more cars in North America get 40 MPG and better for less money.
Ok, where to start? They looked for a computer gremlin, one has not been found.
The Prius is a little different to drive than other cars, the transmission nob and power switch takes a little to get used to (wished it was a more traditional feel to it) that explains most of the runaway issues, ie users that were unfamiliar with the setup and panic.
The gas pedal and floor mat were simply bad design that have been fixed through a recall. Toyota like every other make screws up at times.
What I did enjoy most was your comment about the prius and winter performance.
Have you ever driven one in snow?
Here in Alaska we just had a bizarre ice storm, followed by a snow storm and a cold spell.
I live on a step hillside above town, they don’t plow our road until there are more than six inches of snow and yes we don’t have a garage.
So every morning the Prius starts up just fine in 30-40 below, plows through fresh snow and makes it to town.
I am not trying to oversell it, no car that I have ever driven is totally happy at -40 and 4wd do go through unplowed snow with more ease, but the Prius handles it just fine. Good winter tires are key.
As for the hybrid “premium” is there such a thing? You get well equipped modern midsize car for 22-30K, similar to any other midsize car on the market.
Yes if you compare a stripped special or a smaller car to the Prius they are prized lower, but I would be surprised if many midsize cars actually left the dealer floor for much less then the 22K base prize of the Prius. People pick their options over the base model, leather, navigation, sport package or a hybrid system but surprisingly only one group has to defend their selection.
@ Tree Trunk
I agree that Sam P was too harsh on the Prius – it’s a reliable, well made car. Although (and this is anecdotal), I think for borderline warranty claims, Toyota is willing to step up and pay in order to protect their hybrid cred. Which is a good thing for Prius owners.
So every morning the Prius starts up just fine in 30-40 below, plows through fresh snow and makes it to town.
I am not trying to oversell it, no car that I have ever driven is totally happy at -40 and 4wd do go through unplowed snow with more ease, but the Prius handles it just fine. Good winter tires are key.
I have to quibble with that. In snow without winter tires, the Prius performs below average for a front driver. With winter tires, the Prius takes a step up (like any car). Of course, it’s then below average for a front driver with winter tires.
Give me a Mazda 3 with a stick any day of the week. Or, if I want the room and more reliability, an (admittedly rare) Camry with a stick.
BTW, does your mileage go south on a -40 degree day? Doesn’t the ICE work a lot more at low temps?
@ ihatetrees
I have to quibble with that. In snow without winter tires, the Prius performs below average for a front driver. With winter tires, the Prius takes a step up (like any car). Of course, it’s then below average for afront driver with winter tires.
Give me a Mazda 3 with a stick any day of the week. Or, if I want the room and more reliability, an (admittedly rare) Camry with a stick.
BTW, does your mileage go south on a -40 degree day? Doesn’t the ICE work a lot more at low temps?
After we got our first snow that stuck, happen late this year in early October, I took the Prius out for a test drive on worn summer tires. And it was not going anywhere.
The anti-slip control is so terrified of letting the car slide that it will totally cut the power to wheels of. Great as in the wheels are not spinning, sucks as in the car is not going anywhere. I need to read up on priuschat if there is away to turn the big brother control off.
With the Blizzaks on it was night and day the car is doing just fine even though I don’t doubt that a manual and antislip that can be turned on and off would be better.
The summer milage was above 50mpg but is now below 40mpg, part of that are the snow tire the milage went down the day I put them on and part of it is having every lubed part stiff and frozen.
The ICE defiantly runs more in the cold, but milage drop is similar percent wise to our other cars. The SUV goes from above 20mpg down below 15mpg and the Corolla drops from over 30mpg to under 25mpg
Gas was $3.08 at Costco today. At around fifty bucks to fill the car or $70 to fill the pickup, I don’t consider that cheap. All the same, it would have to damn near double before I’d even think about a hybrid. I’d rather save trips – I’m retired and can do that to some extent.
The problem I see with hybrids is that unless the car is already very efficient, meaning lightweight, low rolling resistance tires, 4-cyl Atkinson cycle engine, some type of CVT, etc. they just don’t work. The RX450h does a semi decent job at being reasonably efficient, but the fuel economy figures of the GS and LS hybrids are basically a joke. You had to be REALLY stupid to buy a Honda Accord Hybrid.
It will be interesting to see if Infiniti can do any better with the hybrid M, but in most mid to large size cars, diesel makes WAY more sense. Trunk space doesn’t get cut in half, and MPG is usually much better than the equivalent hybrid anyway.
And some diesels are even more reliable than their gasser counterparts. Case in point: The BMW 335d doesn’t have the crippling high pressure fuel pump problems that the gas 335i is plagued with.
Something isn’t right with those numbers.
In 2007 there had been 1m Prius sold.
In 2009 they sold their 2 millionth.
Toyota have constructed plant capacity for 1m/year Prius-only during 2011 and expect it to be fully utilised.
Hybrid Camry sales are ahead of schedule in all markets. Europe is a disappointment, but there is HEAVY scaremongering from VW-group, Mercedes etc…. Plus Toyota/Lexus are generally finding Europe harder.
I don’t see anything to say they’re not on track with their plans, while maintaining a profitable business (fancy that!).
The numbers are as per J.D. Power. You may have overread that I actually called Toyota. While they don’t make forecasts for the whole industry, they did not question the numbers either. They are happy with their number.
” Hybrid Camry sales are ahead of schedule in all markets.”
really? In the U.S., YTD sales dropped 37.5%.
All according to plan? LOL.
“YTD sales dropped 37.5%”
Hybrid Camry is about 13% of model mix in NA, which is 3% more than Toyota expected before end-2010. Too hard to understand, for some, I guess.
My 04 Prius had almost 94K on it when I sold it to my son. Only problem I had was a defective central display. Toyota worked with me to get it replaced. Only cost me around $400. It was the most reliable vehicle I have ever owned. I would get another one if they made it slightly larger so that I could get my big butt in easier. Of if they came out with the midsized hybrid pickup they showed several years ago. I love my honda ridgeline, but Toyota builds the best vehicles IMHO. Can’t wait to see the new hybrids they are bringing out over the next few years.
” Toyota worked with me to get it replaced. Only cost me around $400.”
Only?! Sounds like they worked to get $400 from you for something that should have worked well past a 100,000 miles.
I am not suprised that the general population has been slow to adopt hybrids. In the microcosm of Philadelphia, PA., nestled in the middle of everything, hybrids are kinda everywhere. And why not? Most travel is done here at a leasurly 10 mph stop and go. So mileage is great! Most people would not know the differrence. Persoanlly, I am attracted by the Chevy Volt. Its an audacious attempt to give us what we say we want – an electric car with unlimited range. I read the Consumer report first glance report, they really liked it – I can appreciate a car that is silent, and has great gobs of torque on a good sporty suspension. Sounds like the best of all worlds. I want a convertable version please.
My thoughts exactly. I live in Cleveland and do about 95% of my travel going no faster than 35 mph. A Volt would fit my needs to a T. However, I am a grad student and have no money for a new car. But the ability to make long trips without needing two cars would be nice.
Bertel: I like your style! You love to “stir the pot.” The problem with the hybrid (and, I suspect, we will see the same phenomenon with the Volt and the EV), is that it is optimal for a narrow class of customers.
A Prius is optimal for the person who commutes to work daily 10 or 15 miles each way in stop and go traffic. It’s going to beat any diesel or gasoline powered car in that kind of service. Throw in a bunch of high-speed, highway operation, and the Prius or other hybrid is not so optimal. A diesel will do better, and an equivalently underpowered and optimized for efficiency gasoline car will do as well and maybe better. (I personally think it is no accident that Toyota does not make a conventional gas-engine Prius, because I think it would out-perform the hybrid on highway driving.) People with a shorter commute (like I have) probably wouldn’t do well with a hybrid. From a cold start in the morning, the gas engine is going to be running most of the time to heat up the cabin and/or run the a/c. By the time the engine reaches operating temperature and is able to shut down, I would be just about at work. (And, btw, gas engines do not run efficiently when they’re below operating temperature).
A Volt would be perfect for me, because I could make the round trip to work and back purely on electric power. But, as tests show, if you use the Volt beyond its battery capacity, its fuel economy is pretty pathetic. Again, not really a highway car at all, even in terms of efficiency, much less performance.
And EVs, of course, are totally range-limited.
I consider a tribute to Toyota’s engineers that the Prius has proved to be such a reliable vehicle (are the other Toyota hybrids equally trouble-free?). But there’s no denying that the drive system is very complex and of that fact, that, as a general matter, complexity creates more failure points. And, pretty clearly, with any hybrid, your choice of mechanics is limited to the dealership for that brand.
So, the fact that hybrids haven’t taken over the world doesn’t necessarily mean anything, it seems to me. Rather, we are privileged to live in a time where manufacturing is sufficiently sophisticated (unlike, say, the days of the Ford Model T: any color you want as long as it’s black) that consumers have a wide range of choices, tailored to their needs and preferences.
@”Throw in a bunch of high-speed, highway operation, and the Prius or other hybrid is not so optimal. A diesel will do better”
Again, this isn’t the case in North America, the Prius gets better Highway mileage than a Jetta TDI in the EPA and in all the real world comparisons and certainly better than all the non hybrid gas competition.
A tiny Yaris sized Euro car slug, running a 1.5 L diesel might beat it, but we dont’ have any of those.
You nailed it DCBruce. Different cars for different drivers. The people who appear to feel threatened enough by cars like the Prius to feel the needs to dump on it every chance they get are just pitiful. (no I don’t own or drive one myself).
Hybrids that are designed from the ground up provide the best return when it comes to in-town driving.
Most midsized sedans with an ICE engine will get around 20 mpg in-town in the real world.
A midsized diesel will usually get around 30 mpg.
A non-Prius midsized model gets around 40 mpg
A Prius gets around 50 mpg.
For a lot of mom’s who have to shuffle their kids from one place to another a hybrid makes sense. That’s why my wife has driven one for the last two years.
I also do a lot of intown driving only because a few of the auctions I attend are close to my place of business. Financially it makes sense for me as well. However my driving habits are anomalous to the overall pupulation (25k+ a year, mostly winding one lane roads and sub-highway speeds.)
If you’re looking for a highway driver and have to drive in a hilly or mountainous area, a diesel or contemporary compact vehicle with an ICE will make far more sesne. The CVT’s on most hybrids are generally weak and an excessive number of cycles with the IMA battery over the course of time will shorten that component’s life. The same is true if you drive in a climate that experiences intense heat like the Southern US.
I love hybrid technology. But the real problem with hybrids in the North American market may not even be the ‘cost’ of it. Hybrids are probably one of the most mis-marketed technologies in North American automotive history.
You can’t sell these hybrids on ‘power’ (CT200, Accord).
You can’t sell the technology by incorporating it into current non-hybrid models because the overall designs of most ICE driven vehicles aren’t a good match for how a hybrid performs in the real world.
Toyota’s technology has been the sole success in this arena, and that has been limited to two models (Fusion & Camry). Every other manufacturers version of what a hybrid should be that did not incorporate Toyota’s design has failed miserably in the marketplace.
As Bertel points out, hybrids offer a far longer payback period in a non-hybrid designed vehicle. They also sacrifice performance for fuel economy. It’s a financial and lifestyle compromise most folks won’t make.
Hybrids offer the best bang for the buck when they are incorporated into a vehicle that…
1) Is designed specifically to account for a hybrid engine’s core strengths
2) Used primarily for sub-highway speeds This is why a lot of enthusiasts believe that the next ‘hybrid’ success story will likely be a minivan
3) Employs economies of scale so that the hybrid technology can be improved and amortized. Due to the youth of the technology hybrids tend to have far more teething issues in the beginning. The battery issues with the early Honda & Toyota models were very legitimate. The transmission issues with the Honda CVT are endemic. Plus the software for most hybrid models will need updating as time and ‘wear issues’ take hold.
Hybrids are an emerging technology… that offers one very good solution to one specific driver… the type that does a lot of in-town driving.
$210 a month for a Yaris that averages 25 mpg vs. $420 a month for a Prius that averages 50 mpg. At 2,000 miles a month, the Yaris uses 80 gallons or $240, the Prius uses 40 gallons or $120. I’m spending $210 on a depreciating asset to save $120 on fuel at $3 a gallon so there’s not much of a benefit to me there. I don’t break even until fuel costs $6 a gallon once I consider the higher sales taxes and insurance. If they really want me to save fuel, they’d sell me a Yaris with a diesel that averages 40 mpg. As far as my thoughts on the battery replacement issue, I’d consider that the equivalent of rebuilding the motor on the Yaris.
Except that the Yaris is a penalty box, 1-2 classes below the Prius. If you’re shopping PURELY on cost, then okay…but the Prius is much larger and more comfy than the Yaris. If there were any substantial cross-shopping between them, Toyota would stop offering the Yaris due to cannibalization.
I’m not a Prius apologist, and I like the detail financial assessment, but we do need to keep the comparisons direct so we can collectively make good decisions.
The Yaris vs Prius comparison is just silly. Why not compare the Prius to Mercedes E-Class???
At least compare it to something in the same size class with a similar level of equipment. I don’t think people shop an Accord vs Yaris.
The Yaris is a tinny micro-car for people that can’t a afford a whole car. It is the very definition of penalty box.
“Toyota launched the world’s first mass produced hybrid, the Prius, in December 1997” – wasn’t the origional Honda Insight on the market a number of years eariler than the Prius? Never mind, I just answered my own question – the Insight went on sale in the US before the Prius but not in Japan. I always thought the gen I Insight was the better answer to the long distance commuter issue than the Prius or almost any other hybred. Someone I worked with had one and got 60+ mpg on his daily 160-some mile commute. Licence plate was: GASWATT which was a sly way to answer the often asked question “what is it?”
I’m happy that hybrids exist for those who want them. I just wish the U.S. government would stop manipulating markets for them with subsidies. I also wish there was more effective communication to the average car buyer of the benefits of certain technologies.
City dwellers and stop and go commuters no doubt benefit most from hybrids. Long distance highway commuters, including many in sales, would benefit far more from a diesel and would have a more powerful car for highway passing. Yet our EPA numbers poorly reflect this reality. Meanwhile, if you drive in a spirited fashion, an ICE engine will probably beat a hybrid for mileage. A Prius gets lousy mileage when its ICE engine is being consistently pushed. My roundtrip commute is 7 miles, I drive what I want.
I agree – stop taking the money I pay in taxes to enrich someone who buys a hybrid / diesel or subsidizing the ethanol industry so that GM and Ford can sell flex fuel suvs that get worse mpg if they ran on e85 just so that CAFE be manipulated and mark that gas guzzler down as a mid 20’s mpg vehicle. I want my money to be used smartly or to pay down our country’s ever increasing debt (for the past 10 years we’ve spiraled out of control).
+1 slance66 and jaje
Word.
Although the hybrid subsidization does have some utility for those of us who aren’t directly benefitting.
E85 is an epic scam.
Couple of points here.
About the hybrid drivetrain paying for itself: does leather? the wheel upgrade? the nav system? The big sound system? the sunroof? No. So why does lack of payback for the hybrid system get so much attention? I like putting up big mileage numbers when I drive on the street, same as how I like putting up small numbers for lap times in my track car.
About putting the money into diesels: Toyota has cleverly found a way for the public to fund the development of dozens of technologies that can applied to any internal combustion drivetrain, such as great aerodynamics, low rolling resistance, efficient engines, their hybrid drive system. They have 13 years of experience with developing a reliable hybrid drivetrain. I am sure there are many other technologies they have developed and that are waiting in the wings for demand for yet higher mileage cars.
When someone comes out with a high mileage diesel competitor, they will put a diesel in the Prius and still be the high mileage champ – and by now, with all the development done, the hybrid feature of the drivetrain will be cheap and reliable.
Gotta think outside the box here! Toyota could make a 75 mpg Prius in one year if they simply used the Prius and put in a diesel. Done and the world leading mpg midsized car.
Modern diesel powertrains cost a lot of money, often as much as the much maligned “hybrid premium”, and diesel doesn’t really benefit as much from hybrid power (and doesn’t tolerate idle-stop as well) in a passenger car. As such, a diesel hybrid is more of an exercise in declining returns than a useful product.
What people say about hybrids today is exactly what they were saying about electronic fuel injection thirty years ago (“too complex”, “too costly”, “not worth the expense”, “normal people can’t fix/tune it”, “it’s a scheme for the gubmint to take control of mah car!”, “you can have my carb when you pry my fingers off the screwdriver I’ve jammed down it”)
Make of that, and the modern fuel-injected car, what you will.
I don’t think the analogy above is correct – the argument from going from carburetor’d cars to fuel injection today is a much better analogy to going from today’s electronic fuel injection to direct injection. The costs are significantly less (a hybrid premium is at the very least $3k versus up to a $500 premium for fuel injection).
There are an awful lot of folks who think there are no peak oil/climate chaos problems. The cheaper gas is, the more people join their ranks. These are not hybrid customers.
There are also many people who have gone beyond infatuated car ownership. Some set up their lifestyles so they don’t have to drive. Some have suffered financial setbacks that preclude pouring money into cars. Some reduce driving, walk, cycle, carpool, or take transit. Or various combinations of the above.
Hybrids compete for the customers between these generalized groups. There may be very few people between these groups who are also in the market for new $30,000 sedans. Since for most people hybrids don’t have a “slam-dunk” advantage, such as costing half as much for just as much car, and given the plentiful scare mongering and resistance to change, it is no surprise hybrid sales are slow.
There are an awful lot of folks who think there are no peak oil/climate chaos problems.
I’m one of the above. I’m with economist Julian Simon regarding resources – they’re primarily limited by our technological ability. We’ve been allegedly running out of oil / energy / farmland / cat food / etc for the last 30+ years…
If my driving needs were primarily urban and I could garage a 2nd car, I wouldn’t hesitate on a used Prius if the price was right. I drive the best value given my resources, wants and needs. It may be a Prius someday. It may be a Porsche.
Lets see, there are more than two billion people in China and India, that dream about cars, refrigerators, plane trips to Disney Land, pink plastic flamingos and all the other marvels of modern life.
With a billion Nano’s on their way to the streets is seems a safe bet to assume that lots more oil will be consumed. Right now most oil production regions are at capacity or in the state of decline, new discoveries are not keeping up with what we currently use let alone when all those people in the developing world demand their fair share of the pie.
With no easy alternative to oil. the price has only one place to go and that is up.
There are an awful lot of folks who think there are no peak oil/climate chaos problems.
Thank Goodness. Somebody has to remain lucid while everyone else is drinking the Kool-Aid.
Whether it’s Peak Oil, Y2K or Flat Earth, the odds of a particular scientific theory being dead-nuts wrong is directly proportionate to the number of people who get sucked into it, believing with every fiber of their being that “this is the big one”. Climate change (the Al Gore bestseller version… not the natural event that has been going on for four billion years) is just the latest example. And hybrid cars are just a fashion accessory which accompanies it.
There are an awful lot of folks who think there are no peak oil/climate chaos problems.
I think that’s true of the USofA, because anti-science ignorance and pride-in-stupidity are national sports.
When something like the Prius comes along and slaps the rest of the lazy domestic dinosaur owning and manufacturing cabal in the face, the knee-jerk defence is ridicule.
@”I think that’s true of the USofA, because anti-science ignorance and pride-in-stupidity are national sports.”
So sad, but true.
So, the Prius seems to be the optimum for cab operators. Low maintenance and fuel costs combined with reliability is what they need. The hybrid premium should be no problem for them, given the high annual mileage.
I can see where a Prius is a good city car with all the stop / go traffic. Plug in model would be wise but the electricity to charge it comes from coal plants (b/c it comes from the a/c outlet doesn’t mean the energy is “free” or “green”). If you drive mainly highway then it will take much, much longer to make up the delta in upfront higher purchase price over a normal fuel efficient car or diesel (premium for a diesel engine is ~ $1k where in the hybrids it’s at least $3k and sometimes up to $10k).
The less need to do brake pads is quite amusing. It takes me ~ 30 mins & $50 to change my own front brake pads (I always keep a spare set of front / rear pads in my garage for every car I own). The only drawback is if you need to replace the rotor or have it returned and you’ve got a certain model year of a Honda Accord who decided that they’ll use press on rotors that become part of the wheel bearing requiring use of a hydraulic press to swap rotors. That aside, I’d trade off spending $50 every 2-3 years doing brake pads than for when the regenerative braking system needs replacement at a cost I’m not sure of.
b/c it comes from the a/c outlet doesn’t mean the energy is “free” or “green”
Where is anyone saying this?
premium for a diesel engine is ~ $1k where in the hybrids it’s at least $3k and sometimes up to $10k
$1? $10K? How are you calculating this?
Golf 4-Door $19685
Golf 4-Door TDI $23435, that’s $3750 on VWs own US website.
It’s not at all clear if there is a premium for Hybrid Camry as it’s hidden in the various spec configurations. It certainly is no more than $3k, and is the same price as the equivalent spec V6 model.
Besides that, the payback argument is a nonsense. Hardly a car on the road is purchased outright with cash. If you’re not paying cash, and presuming that you exit a more expensive vehicle with a greater trade-in price, then your real cost is the interest paid during the period of the loan.
Camry Hybrid $25k finance, 10%, 60 months is $531/mth or $31860
Camry 4-cyl SE $22k finance, 10%, 60 months is $467/mth or $28020, diff $3840
I’m going to suggest that the Camry Hybrid will retain a better proportion of it’s value, so lets say it’s worth $5k at the end of the period, whereas the regular Camry is worth $3k. The actual cost difference is then $1840, or $30/mth. My employer is easily saving over $50/mth on fuel running Hybrid Camrys (50 of them worldwide now). Fuel prices only have to rise marginally for the gap to grow very quickly. Also, our maint costs have dropped, plus vehicle availability is higher too, suggesting outright reliability is better.
Rising fuel prices would likely see Hybrid Camrys performing even better on resale, with Toyota Hybrids in general being excellent resale performers.
@Jaja
Wow you really are a one man anti-hybrid FUD machine aren’t you.
Realtiy check, the least expensive TDI and the least expensive Prius are about equal in costs, because both Toyota and VW do the same thing with their system, they put them in fairly loaded models that cost more.
So when you start out at about the same price, the Prius that gets massively better city MPG and somewhat better highway MPG, all while burning cheaper regular unleaded, it is win/win/win for the Prius.
That is even before when get to VWs and maintenance costs vs the ultra low maintenance Prius.
I don’t drive a Prius, but you can’t really fault them on maintenance/reliability/fuel economy, all things that matter to many drivers.
About the only fault they have is that they are boring transportation appliances. But that is what most people want!
Why VW charges more for TDI than the base gasoline engine is not proof that diesels cost the same as a complex hybrid drivetrain and battery pack. VW can sell their TDI cars for a much greater profit.
Diesel engines have been around for well over 100 years. They’ve proven themselves as much more reliable than gasoline engines as diesel fuel is a better lubricant for engines than gasoline, the engines are built much sturdier due to the high compression, they do not require an electronic spark ignition system, and advances over the years in direct injection and common rail systems have made them even more efficient and reliable. They produce less carbon dioxide/monoxide emissions which in turns reduces ground level ozone making it safer for people to breathe (also a major reason why underground generators in mines are diesel and not gas). With new particulate emissions filters today’s clean diesels emit less noxious emissions. Diesel engines create less wasted heat byproduct than gas counterparts. Hybrids create a lot more greenhouse gas emissions in production (which I’m waiting to see a study proving that their reduction in gas related emissions offsets those increase production emissions).
Here’s a study done recently comparing diesels to hybrids from a cost standpoint and the advantages of diesels: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m3012/is_1_186/ai_n31061273/
“A diesel vehicle costs only slightly more than a comparable gasoline-powered vehicle ( 7 to 10%), which compares very favorably to the additional cost of a hybrid vehicle ( 17 to 25% for an electric/gasoline vehicle). As shown in a study by CNW Marketing Research, the total environmental cost of a hybrid car is very high if overall energy consumption is considered from vehicle design to end-of-life.”
@ Bytor – no I’m not a FUD machine (thanks for the label and ironically misspelled my username)…I’m an economist and look at the total lifecycle costs of the equipment including societal losses in my taxes enriching others, the increased emissions, the use of rare earth elements that cause us to import more from other countries. I’m asking we be smart and instead of focusing on 2% of the car market to increase fuel economy…we apply technologies and solutions that are much easier to adapt to a wider audience. Tax gas so its expensive creating that incentive to purchase a fuel efficient car (making diesels and hybrids more in demand). I don’t think we as a country are making the right decisions as we jump from crisis to crisis and overreact to simple problems, won’t take responsibility for our own actions, ignore unpopular but simple, efficient solutions and enjoy living in ignorance. You can label me all you want as a hybrid hater, but in the total costs of it all they are not the solution.
Again the citing VW’s pricing point doesn’t work b/c VW simply can charge much more for a TDI over a base gas engine’d model and make a good profit on it.
@jaje,
That CNW Marketing study that you quote has been thoroughly debunked, largely because it make some very serious, and very erroneous, assumptions, not the least of which was that hybrids would be on the road for the third of the length of a conventional car, and that the impact mining was solely on the backs of hybrid cars.
Diesel engines have been around for well over 100 years. They’ve proven themselves as much more reliable than gasoline engines as diesel fuel is a better lubricant for engines than gasoline, the engines are built much sturdier due to the high compression
This is a bit of a fallacy, but it keeps getting repeated.
Those advantages are no longer really applicable for modern gas or diesel engines. Modern diesels are quite a bit more complex than their older naturally-aspirated forebears , what with forced induction, an extremely high-pressure fuel rail and a complex emissions and engine management system needed to achieve low emissions. Meanwhile, hybrids are proving to be very reliable because their powertrain management allows the mechanicals to live a much less stressed life. The theoretical advantages to diesel are just that: theoretical. In real life they don’t really factor in.
Never mind that the real costs for most people aren’t powertrain, but minor systems and wear-and-tear and it’s in these items that diesel is irrelevant while not buying Mercedes or VW does make a difference
That aside, I’d trade off spending $50 every 2-3 years doing brake pads than for when the regenerative braking system needs replacement at a cost I’m not sure of.
What this really comes down to is that you’re not comfortable with hybrids for theoretical and subjective reasons. but objective data (hybrids are reliable up to and including the expected life of a conventional car) and real-world pricing (the diesel premium is effectively equivalent to the hybrid premium).
Again the citing VW’s pricing point doesn’t work b/c VW simply can charge much more for a TDI over a base gas engine’d model and make a good profit on it.
Whether or not VW or Toyota are making money or gouging is really irrelevant and likely not a factor: it’s the cost to the consumer that matters. It would be just as easy for Toyota to do the same, and just as easy for me to claim so.
It’s fine that you don’t like hybrids and yes, there’s situations (long-haul highway) where they’re not the best choice, but that’s about where it ends.
@Jaje
Stop being ridiculous. It doesn’t matter to the consumer if VW is making more profit than Toyota on the respective vehicles.
What matters is how much they cost to purchase. They are equivalent.
The Prius will be cheaper to run. Better MPG, and cheaper fuel, and cheaper maintenance. Prius is win/win/win in this reality.
You may not like this reality, but it is the one we live in. If we lived under a different tax regime that favored diesel, and VW sold them cheaper then the results would be different. But we don’t!
You both understand that the reasoning you give me for why diesels are not cheaper to operate or as reliable as a gasoline engine is b/c of the added complexity in a modern diesel engine ironically applies to the same argument you make that hybrids are better than gasoline / diesel engines b/c of the added complexity.
You understand that complexity is a relative concept don’t you? The Toyota Hybrid Synergy Drive is a less complex design. It hurts the deniers, but it is.
This is the HSD transmission in concept; http://eahart.com/prius/psd/
So do many non-hybrids that come with CVT transmissions (just as simple). I’m not knocking all of the technology the Prius has. The Synergy drive system is one of the most efficient hybrid drive trains out there. I would more expect Toyota or Honda to be smart and start applying these technologies to their mainstream vehicles (both lineups are way overdue for improvements in their non-hybrid efficiency). The non-hybrids are where 95% of their real customers are. Focusing on making that 5% hybrid lineup more efficient when ignoring their bread and butter is going to hurt them especially with such resurgent competition.
@”So do many non-hybrids that come with CVT transmissions (just as simple). ”
Again, you aren’t getting it. The Prius doesn’t have a CVT transmission. It doesn’t have a transmission at all.
The standard CVT piece is a weak link, Honda has had many CVT failures, BMW was notorious for CVT failures in the Mini cost $6K+ to repair. For it’s auto box BMW gave up on the CVT and switched back to a conventional Auto in the mini.
Also Prius HSD power combiner is not suitable to replace the transmission in a conventional non hybrid. Because it is NOT a transmission. It is a geared power combiner that relies on additional power inputs.