Though peak oil usually refers to when production reaches the highest point it’ll ever see before coasting back down to the same level once experienced in the 1800s, a new report reveals a different oil peak will come in the next few years: the total product consumed worldwide.
Autoblog Green says a report from Navigant Research, titled “Transportation Forecast: Global Fuel Consumption,” claims worldwide consumption will begin to fall after 2021, where 367.3 billion gallons of fuel will be used that year. By 2035, the total fuel used then will have fallen 4 percent to 348.1 billion gallons.
The cause of this decline? Not peak oil, but a combination of alternative fuels and environmental concerns related to the use of petroleum, according to analyst Scott Shepherd:
The anticipated effects of climate change are driving international cooperation on mitigation efforts, including reducing oil consumption in the transportation sector. Markets for both vehicles and fuels have gradually begun to respond to these efforts, and alternative fuels -‑ including electricity, natural gas, and biodiesel ‑- are beginning to have an impact on global oil demand.
In addition, Navigant acknowledges improvements to the traditional ICE and vehicles in general in fueling the eventual decline in global fuel consumption.
Hasn’t US fuel use already peaked? I thought the max was around 2004.
I believe the peak was in 2007 or 2008.
Notice that the big oil companies are slowly getting out of the refining business.
The big oil companies mostly got out of the refining business years ago, just keeping a finger in the business to keep up with the tech, at least in the U. S. Refining is like supermarkets: huge volume, extremely low margins and all kinds of regulations and restrictions. There hasn’t been a major refinery built in the US since 1977, though several existing refineries have expanded to meet demand.
You realize that fuel production on average always will equal fuel consumption?
The only temporary difference is when building up reserves or withdrawing from them.
Where is Big Trucks?
I’m sure his pushrod V8 mantra would correct the decline since any decline is a bad thing :)
I think he would probably interpret it as, “good, falling demand means more available for me”.
Here in Brazil consumption is growing almost 10 percent a year. Similar growth will probably be seen in other big developing nations. NA, Europe and Japan will have to buy a whole lot of EVs to offset this on a world levei.