Because success in the auto industry depends upon both the buildup of industrial might and deft maneuvering on the winds of fashion, analysts often struggle to determine how business decisions impact consumer choice. For example, GM and Chrysler long resisted the pressing need to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection because their leaders believed that Americans would not buy a car from a bankrupt firm, and that sales would go into an irrecoverable tailspin if they filed. Needless to say, that assumption proved to be deeply flawed, and sales during the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies barely dipped (if only compared to the miserable months preceding bankruptcy). In any case, the rating agency Moody’s is taking on the challenge of translating good business news into sales by arguing [via Bloomberg]

U.S. consumers who don’t know anything about over- allocation options or the need for strong liquidity in a cyclical industry knew that something exceptionally good happened to GM last week. That knowledge makes it more likely that they will consider buying a GM vehicle and possibly buy one. That’s good for the company’s credit quality.

But does the general air of positivity surrounding the IPO actually make a difference with consumers?

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If you love data almost as much as you love cars, you’re in for a real treat. The EPA has issued a report [PDF here] on the last 35 years of light-duty vehicle efficiency trends, and it’s jam-packed full of fun graphs detailing the evolution of America’s car market. For example, the fuel-efficiency record of the major US-market players is laid bare in one particularly compelling collection of graphs (above). More detail on by-manufacturer efficiency over the last three years can be found here. Other fun graphs: production breakdowns by vehicle size and type, a comparison of performance and efficiency by vehicle type, and a distribution of vehicles by weight for 1975, 1988 and 2010 (weights dropped from ’75 to ’88, and are now back to nearly 1975  levels). You can also check out production share by weight to find out that the sub-2,750 lb died sometime after the year 2000. You can even see the breakdown of FWD-RWD-AWD  by vehicle type and pinpoint the moment that Subaru started making an impact on the market. All told, it’s an automotive data-gasm that will leave you a lot better informed about the state of the US market. And the perfect opportunity to make sweeping generalizations about the American car market. Enjoy!

With its lineup now reaching into realms where even Cadillac dare not tread (namely the $65k Equus luxury flagship), Hyundai is filling in the gaps with ruthless focus. Next up: the near-luxury large sedan segment, where Buick’s LaCrosse has been mounting a one-car comeback for GM’s premium brand. But starting next year, the LaCrosse becomes a mild-hybrid model, lifting its base price to near $30k and giving the Azera an opportunity to become a recession-special spoiler. And with handsome Sonata-meets-Genesis Coupe-meets-LaCrosse looks, the next-gen Azera could just be the first luxurious Hyundai to actually bring real sales volume to the brand. The Azera should launch next year as a 2012 model, and as the gallery below shows, it’s already crawling the streets of Korea, bringing the fight to the Daewoo Alpheon [Thanks to Walter Foreman for the spy shots].

Having ignored the first wave of EV enthusiasm, Toyota turned to Tesla in the aftermath of its recall scandal as an investment that could potentially catch it up with other EV makers, and possibly help its battered image along the way. Officially, the deal was brokered after Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda drove the Tesla Roadster, and came away impressed with its “splendid flavor.” Toyota then dropped $50m on Tesla’s stock and another $60m on the Tesla-developed RAV4 EV prototype, raising the possibility of re-starting production at the NUMMI plant, which Tesla bought from Toyota as part of the hookup. But with Toyota also developing an EV city car in-house and talking up the return of hydrogen cars, Tesla’s role in Toyota’s future is clear as mud. If the RAV4 EV makes financial sense, Tesla could contract-build them at NUMMI, adding much-needed volume to a giant factory that would otherwise be building only the Model S (at a rate of about 20k per year).  But there’s the rub: Tesla clearly needs Toyota more than the other way around; it needs Toyota’s volume, manufacturing expertise and legitimacy. But what will Toyota get out of the relationship? An expensive EV compact crossover? Goodwill from the American people? The ability to keep in-house development looking past a short-term fad for EVs?

So here’s today’s puzzle: if you were Akio Toyoda, would you A) double down on Tesla, and buy a controlling share or even roll it into the parent company, B) quietly sell the stake and move on, or C) keep Tesla around as a speculative EV offshoot of the main company? It’s a complex question, and answers should touch on the market potential of EVs, Tesla’s strategy and viability, Toyota’s relationship with EVs, the PR benefits of keeping an American EV startup alive, and much, much more. Enjoy!

With results from Audi’s driverless attempt at Pikes Peak certified, it seems that we have nothing to fear from the GPS-based autonomous drifting machine. Audi’s press release notes:

Overall, the Autonomous Audi TTS Pikes Peak completed the mountain course in 27 minutes, as verified by Pikes Peak International Hill Climb officials. No human rally driver has completed the course in fewer than 10 minutes, despite driving cars that produced more than 900 hp. The Autonomous Audi TTS Pikes Peak generates 265 hp. Race officials told researchers they would expect an expert race driver on the course to finish in around 17 minutes in a car similar to the TTS.

Take that robots! You may build cars better than humans, but you’ve still got a thing or two to learn about driving.

[UPDATE: the Stanford team writes in to remind us that the point of the exercise was to safely develop driver-assistance systems, and that the 27 minute time was ” just a measurement of our safety plan and the speed we set for the lead vehicle.” Call us insecure, but we’re still calling this a victory for H.Sapiens.]

We all knew that Bob Lutz wasn’t going to spend his retirement circulating between the golf course and the early bird special, and when Lotus rolled out the most ambitious re-boot of any car company since GM, we should have known Lutz would end up involved somehow. After all, Lotus’s CEO Dany Bahar has bragged at length about making Lotus the “Real Madrid” (think Miami Heat) of  the sports car industry… and if there’s one high-profile prima donna in the car industry, it’s Mr Robert Anthony Lutz.
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Looking for an electric car in the $33k price range (before tax credits)? Starting soon you will have two options: Nissan’s Leaf, a 100 mile range, four-door, US-made compact hatchback or Wheego‘s LiFe, a 100 mile range, electrified Chinese city car that is barely distinguishable from the Smart ForTwo. Can you picture many Americans picking the Chinese Smart clone over the Nissan? But Wheego, which previously sold only Low Speed Vehicles, is undeterred. The company claims it will start selling the 70 MPH top-speed LiFe next month… even though AN [sub] reports that the LiFe hasn’t completed EPA certification. Meanwhile, we still haven’t seen a US crash test of the Wheego or the Shuanghuan Noble it’s based on… so we have to rely on questionable Chinese vids like the one above (where’s that airbag?). Wheego is going to need some seriously slick salesmen to make the pitch on this car…

Subaru’s search for a consistent design language is the stuff of automotive legend, as the brand has flitted from one theme to the next, seemingly coming up with a new direction with each new vehicle. Now, starting with the Hybrid Tourer Concept from the last Geneva Show, Subaru seems to have settled into something of a groove. It’s a sleek, stripped-down, mature look that might stray towards the bland side for some Subaru fans… but at least it’s a direction. With this peek at a future look for the Impreza, we’re getting a little closer to the day when Subaru actually offers a line of consistently-styled vehicles.

We’ve called Toyota’s Tesla-developed RAV4 EV an “EV insurance policy,” but it seems that Toyota is even hedging its hedges. Automotive News [sub] reports that the Japanese automaker is developing an EV version of its iQ city car in-house, the first in-house EV developed by Toyota for the mass market. If Toyota’s experiment with Tesla fails the way Tesla’s development partnership for the Smart EV with Daimler did, Toyota will be ready with an in-house developed EV. The iQ EV should have a 65 mile range when market-ready, but no date has been given for its launch. Though offering less range than the RAV4 EV, the iQ EV should be considerably cheaper for Toyota to produce… and it keeps the automaker’s engineers in the EV game. As Toyota moves towards a 2015 hydrogen car, it’s plugging EVs into the city car profile where they should remain competitive long-term. This seems to be the model for the future: EVs for short-range city commuting, hydrogen for longer distances, and continuously-improved gasoline cars for those who can’t afford either. The broad-based green car portfolio seems to be the way of the future.

General Motors went public at $33/share today, generated huge trading volume (452m shares traded) and ended the day at $34.19. Automotive News [sub] reports that the government stake in GM “could” be as low as 33 percent post-IPO. Only five percent went to “large foreign investors,” including one percent to the Chinese bête noir SIAC, which hinted at future cooperation with The General on “exploration of overseas markets.” The only bad news? Had the Treasury sold its entire stake at the closing price today, it would have been down $9b. Now GM’s stock price needs to hit $48.58 before taxpayers make good on their investment. But with a market capitalization of about $63b, GM is at least worth more than the taxpayers put into it. Which, using a variation of Project Car Hell logic, is a real accomplishment.

If you read one thing today, read “Ghosts Of The Old GM” by Paul Clemens in today’s NY Times. At a time of increasing triumphalism over the “success” of the Auto Bailout, Clemens unflinchingly reminds us of the terrible price we’ve paid to bring America’s auto industry back to halting life. From deserted plants, to the world of “surplus industry service providers” (yes, taking apart industry is an industry), Clemens chases down the the truth with tenacity:

For General Motors, divided into its “Old” and “New” halves, there’s an inescapable paradox: the only possible route to future profitability is to create, through plant closings, monuments to past unprofitability. Old G.M. may have gone away for the purposes of the stock offering, but it didn’t go away in what might rightfully be called actuality.

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You have to imagine that plenty of Lamborghini Gallardo owners have been hauled in front their local magistrate for daring to allow their Italian stallion to stretch its legs… but surely none of them were ever treated as well as Leone Antonino Magistro of Perth, Australia.

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A new day or a false dawn? Check out Dodge’s freshly-refreshed lineup and let us know which way you’re leaning…

On-road fatalities per vehicle-mile-traveled in the United States have fallen to their lowest level in recorded history (and dropping fast)… so safety advocates must be thrilled with the success, right? Wrong. After all, success is almost more dangerous to a crusade than failure. Luckily for the hand-wringing faction, a study by the National Research Council has re-defined what it means to be safe enough on America’s roads: rather than comparing fatalities to America’s past (which makes the current environment seem great), the key is comparing America’s safety record to completely different countries. Take it away, New York Times:

While France and 15 other high-income nations cut their traffic fatalities by half from 1995 to 2009, the United States showed only a 19 percent reduction over that same time period. Britain dropped the number of fatal accidents by 39 percent over the last 15 years, and Australia by 25 percent.

And what makes the US different than these other countries (other than the fact that we apparently don’t care about traffic deaths)? The problem, it turns out, is our insufficiently intrusive government.

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Let me say this as clear as I can, I do not think there will be any concessions in 2011. People want to reward our members and it will be a key component of the 2011 bargaining. When the industry comes back, just like we’re sharing in the downside we’re going to share in the upside. That’s a key foundation of what we’re doing in 2011.

UAW President Bob King gives his best “we will fight them on the beaches” impression, telling Reuters that his union has sacrificed enough, thanks. And though the people who want to reward UAW members are notably absent from public debate, that assertion wasn’t nearly as double-take-worthy as King’s opinion that

There’s no competitive gap between Ford, GM and Chrysler right now

Huh?

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