Posts By: Robert Farago
When TTAC’s Bertel Schmitt first blogged the story that China had designs on Chrysler and GM, the resulting traffic melted our server. So we added another one. That one melted too. Our stalwart TTAC technical team tells me they’re now load balancing– and doing something about handling our traffic spikes. The view counter’s disappearance serves as a stark non-reminder of that terrible, wonderful day. And, of course, Bertel wasn’t just whistling Dixie (or whatever Germans living in China whistle). Bertel’s given us more inside dope today, as Bloomberg breaks the story into America’s MSM: “Dongfeng Motor Group Co., China’s third-largest automaker, said it had received proposals from investment banks to buy assets from General Motors Corp. as the U.S. carmaker tries to avoid running out of cash,” Bloomies reports with a hint, hint, nudge, nudge, knowwhatImean? “’We’ve gotten e-mails and investment materials asking us whether we would be interested in buying some of GM’s assets,’ Hu Xindong, head of investor relations, said by phone today. ‘So far, our management has not yet reviewed the issues and we have not yet responded.'” GM says it isn’t in talks with Dongfeng, but that’s not what the story says, is it?
One of our Best and Brightest forwarded this letter from GM North American Vice President Vehicle Sales, Service and Marketing to the company’s 124,756 dealers. Mark’s missive attached GM’s increasingly discredited rescue plan and exhorted store owners to keep the faith. More interestingly, the third ‘graph reveals LaNeve as a knee jerk (get well soon Mark) apologist, as he once again trots-out the 6W (woo-woo-woo-woo-woo-woo or Curley) defense. “As you read through these plans, please keep in mind we are in unprecedented times and the economic downturn has impacted industries and people across the nation, causing a devastating rippling affect. GM and other domestic and foreign automakers have been hit hard as consumers are unable to get credit for the purchase of new cars as well as other goods and services. This has resulted in a severe drop in auto sales and potential for revenue generation, which has made it necessary for GM to formulate even deeper cuts than originally anticipated prior to the credit crisis.” Of course, there’s more. Or less. More or less.
The Wall Street Journal’s Evan Newmark takes a look at GM’s Congressional bailout begging term paper. To paraphrase, “we are amused” (in a deeply cynical, bemused sort of way). More specifically, “The restructuring plan comes up short on the most fundamental question. Will this company actually make money? Just look at the details — or what details are lacking. GM says it plans to focus on only four brands. So why does the number of models only drop from 48 to 40? GM has 6,600 dealers, which it says it will cut to 4,700 by 2012. Honda has 1,300 dealers. Even Ford has only 4,100 — which it will cut further. And nowhere in the document does GM lay out, year by year, its own projected market share. This is perhaps the most critical part of any business plan. The kind of thing you learn in the first day of business school.” Yup, the WSJ gets it– in the same place the American taxpayer will… well you get my drift. More mill grist for left-brained nay-sayers after the jump.
They didn’t call Ford’s founder “Crazy Henry” for nothing. But Henry Ford had a knack for aphorisms, such as “You don’t build a reputation on what you’re going to do.” I’d stick the word “say” in the middle of that, but what do I know? I know that on the same day Chrysler’s monthly sales cratered by a staggering 47 percent, Automotive News [sub, AN] revealed that ChryCo product development chief Frank Klegon told the world that the 2011 300 sedan and variants will be “CAFE positive.” One wonders why AN waited until yesterday to run the story. Anyway, it’s nice to hear that Chrysler– the automaker that says it need $7b worth of federal funds by the end of the month or goodnight moon– plans on conforming to new U.S. fuel efficiency regs. Of course, like the 2011 300 sedan, those laws don’t actually exist. “The U.S government has not released regulations for the new corporate average fuel economy [CAFE] law, Klegon said, but ‘we think we know what it is.'” Franks identified “the biggest factor” underlying its democratic party positive environmental optimism: “a new, more efficient V-6 engine family, code-named Phoenix.” Rising from the ashes, eh? Maybe…
If anyone knows the pressures of covering Motown’s meltdown, it’s me. I’m putting in some serious time behind this keyboard (“that’s why they call it work” my wife reminds me) trying to keep up with a news cycle that makes a racing bike seem like a mobility scooter (or something like that). My favorite carmudgeon Dan Neil blew a gasket earlier today, arguing for– yes for— the creation of an American Leyland. The same Dan Neil whose criticism of GM’s management (before criticizing Motown’s management was cool) sparked a retaliatory ad boycott and, thus, the first GM Death Watch. And now Autoblog supremo John Neff has gone off the deep end. In the recently launched “Opinion” category– an inherently bad idea for writers with all the teeth of a Chrysaora fuscescens— Neff wails “Stop arm-chair quarterbacking the auto industry.” Huh? If that’s not a textbook example of pathological solipsism, Bob Lutz is. Anyway, Neff’s knickers are in a right royal twist.
Back when I started the General Motors Death Watch, I had no idea that I’d also be starting a Ford Death Watch. Or a Chrysler Suicide Watch. If you’d told me that they’d all be staring down the barrel of Chapter 11 at the same time, I would have found the suggestion highly improbable. As Edna Mole said to Mrs. Incredible, “And yet Darling, here we are.” And here’s Ford’s federally-mandate bailout plan. Automotive News [sub] headlines their summary “Ford tells Congress profit may be restored in 2011,” but that’s all kinds of misleading. In fact, Ford’s plan says The Blue Oval Boys won’t be profitable until at least 2011. And the cover sheet is covered with caveats, from continued decline in market share (ya think?) to “New or increased credit, consumer or data protection or other regulations resulting in higher costs and/or additional financing restrictions.” Well, at least Ford knows what political buttons to press to get Congressional democrats behind them…
So here it is: Chrysler’s turnaround plan. And while you’re digesting that, Automotive News [sub] gives us the takeway: ChyCo will have $2.5 in cash by the end of the month. That’s not enough money to pay its suppliers, never mind anything else. “The bridge loan will help cover an estimated $11.6 billion in expenditures it [Chrysler] will have in the first quarter of 2009. The biggest chunk of those expenditures will be an estimated $8 billion tab from component suppliers.” Hang on; $2.5b plus $7b is $9.5b minus $8b is $1.5b. So, by it’s own reckoning, Chrysler will be back for more money by the second quarter of 2009. And why wouldn’t it? Profit! “Chrysler assumes it will have a 10.4 percent share of the U.S. market in 2009 and 10.7 percent in each of the next three years after that. Based on those numbers, Chrysler estimates it will have operating profits of $400 million in 2009, $2.6 billion in 2010, $2.0 billion in 2011 and $1.8 billion in 2012.” That’s IF the suppliers play ball and DON’T demand cash on the nail. But wait! There’s more! “Nardelli cautioned that the federal loan will work only if Chrysler Financial can support Chrysler with wholesale and retail lending. ‘Chrysler Financial is in need of immediate liquidity support,’ the Chrysler statement said.” So how much is THAT boondoggle going to cost us? Not specified, but I wouldn’t bother checking your wallet for twenties. Anyway, why isn’t Cerberus paying for all this? They can afford it. Anyone? Bueller?
We now know why The Big 2.8 postponed their Capitol Hill bailout begging ’til the end of the week: they were waiting for November sales results to up the ante. Automotive News [AN] reports what we glommed-onto earlier: the Motown bailout bill has ballooned by billions. “General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC together are asking Congress to approve loans and credit lines that total $34 billion.” So Congress is going to lend three automakers $34b– when the same automakers couldn’t properly assess their financial needs two weeks ago? Yup. “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said automakers will get help. ‘An intervention will happen,’ she said at a Washington news conference. Echoing industry leaders, the California Democrat said bankruptcy is not an option for any of the companies.” To be fair, the privately-held Chrysler corporation’s “request” is, was and will be $7b– which doesn’t make it right (just consistent). And GM that looks like the biggest NSFW; upping its call on the public purse from somewhere between $10b – $12b (what’s a couple of billion between business partners?) to $18b. But the big surprise here is Ford. The Blue Oval Boys are in real danger of over-thinking this one…
You gotta love Chrysler. But not me. How in the world can they claim a right to MY tax money when they can’t even acknowledge their sales debacle on their own website? In fact, ChryCo’s sales dropped from last November’s 161,088 units to this year’s 85,260 units. Instead of admitting they’re up excrement creek without a paddle, today’s ChyrCo posting is “Why America Should Care About the U.S. Auto Industry.” How about this: why should we bail out Chrysler when its owned by a private equity group with deep pockets?
As GM’s 41 percent November sales drop sinks into the public consciousness, The General’s generals have not-so-coincidentally released their not-secret bailout request. And here it is. Judging from the state of things, Rick Wagoner might need to fly to DC– before it’s too late. “General Motors said Tuesday it needs $4 billion in government loans this month and a total of $12 billion by late March to keep operating,” MSNBC reports. “Altogether, the auto giant is seeking up to $18 billion in government funding — including a $6 billion line of credit in case market conditions worsen.” Jeez, that doesn’t leave much for Ford or Chrysler! I make that $7b between them. A pittance really. Unless… they’re planning on asking for more. Could it be?
ABC News— originators of “Jet-gate”– report that both Ford and GM have decided to sell their corporate aircraft. GM’s press release on the subject was uncharacteristically terse, and characteristically timed (released on the same day as November’s abysmal sales stats). “GM… is ceasing operations at General Motors Air Transportation Services (GMATS) at Detroit Metro Airport. Due to significant cutbacks over the past months, GM travel volume no longer justifies a dedicated corporate aircraft operation.” So where does that leave The General’s transport? The automaker is “currently exploring options for transferring its aircraft to another operator” and “pursuing sale of four of the aircraft so it can terminate the leases. GM will shutter the facility at Metro Airport effective January 1, 2009. GM will work with the airport to seek a tenant for the balance of the lease, which expires in 2009.” Zero percent finance available? Meanwhile, Ford’s decision to sell four jets (Volvo thrown in) didn’t make its press site. But we can now reveal that GM CEO Rick Wagoner will be racing Alan Mulally’s Escape Hybrid to Washington in a Malibu hybrid. ChryCo’s CEO will also be driving to DC, but his exact mode of transport is a state secret, for security reasons.
TTAC reader Steve Leiter took up our challenge and headed over to the Maryland Port Authority for Chrysler’s bailout begging party. He files this report… “Sorry, no pictures, ran out the door so fast, cell phone was selected specifically such that it does NOT have a camera in it.
The podium’s surrounded by a gray RAM pickup, olive Patriot, red Charger, white Caliber, Sand 300C, red convertible Sebring, Bbue Liberty, and silver Journey. About 90 folks, equally split between ACT employees, suits, and press corps people. 12 of the employees had neon yellow flak-jackets– must be the Stevedores. WJZ-TV, CNN-Political, etc. cameras.
Toyota PR has signed in, reporting that their “Saved by Zero” marketing campaign ain’t saving much. This November, the Japanese automaker’s overall U.S. sales dropped 33.9 percent, from 197,189 to 130,307. Of course, it would have been worse without the zero percent finance deals, which is one scary ass thought. And speaking of frightening, Scion is dead in the water, from xB (-43.8 percent) to tC (-55.1 percent) to xD (-27.5 percent). Still, small dog, small problem. Big dog (Tundra), big problem (-55.9 percent). And that’s nothing as compared to Toyota’s volume sellers, sales of which fell off a cliff. We’re talking Corolla (-12.8 percent) and Camry (-28.2). And for all Congress’ hybrid love, as TTAC predicted (thanks to our tipsters) Prius mania has screeched to a halt. Sales of the gas – electric hybrid fell from last November’s 16,737 to this Turkey month’s 8,660. That’s a 48.3 percent drop. Except for the new LX (up 497.2 percent to 424 vehicles), ToMoCo’s luxury division lost ground across the board, to the tune of -34.7 percent. Clearly, it’s going to be a long, cold winter for everyone in this biz.

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