Posts By: Robert Farago

By on September 26, 2008

Imagine Rick Wagoner, Alan Mulally and Bob Nardelli’s displeasure when they open this morning’s Detroit News and read the “Government May Delay Auto Money.” While you’d hope The Big 2.8’s CEOs knew this before now, it’s still pretty sobering stuff. “We have significant doubts about whether distribution of [$25b worth of federal low-interest] loans by January 2009 is realistic,” Department of Energy (DOE) spokesman Healy Baumgardner warned. “There are a number of legal and administrative requirements with which the Department must comply, such as the National Environmental Policy Act, we anticipate it could take at least 6 to 18 months or more, after necessary funds are appropriated.” Beaumgardener’s remarks unleashed John Dingell’s ire. “It appears that DOE is making excuses for its own anticipated failures,” pronounced the chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. “This is unacceptable; this investment is too important to Michigan for the Department of Energy to drag their feet,” U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Brighton pronounced. Instead of asking for a federal bailout, Detroit calculated they could alter the DOE “retooling” loans to suit their needs AND get the cash pronto. In this, as in so many other things, they may be entirely, disastrously wrong.

By on September 25, 2008

Did Ford Marketing Maven Jim Farley get Rick Wagoner high? How else do you explain the GM CEO’s Valley-speak whilst describing what will be incontrovertible evidence that the company he’s running has hit the wall? What’s that? What do you expect from an accountant who never uses the word “accountability?” Don’t be so churlish! “Last month, we also had tight credit, so I think there’s no question that it’s affecting automotive activity,” RW told Automotive News [sub]. That seems sort of kinda definitive. And then.. “I can’t tell you honestly as we sit here today that it seems worse than last month, but certainly no better.” Uh. OK. So what’s the plan? “Wagoner held out hope a federal auto loan package, tax breaks and a banking bailout, all pending in Congress, would support demand.” As opposed to, say, building vehicles people want to buy? I know, more churl. Anyway… “He also said the automaker, which is scrambling to shore up its cash position, was hoping for more liberal rules that would allow the loans to be used more widely. ‘We’d like to see them to include all new technologies with significant improvements in fuel efficiency, like our new Lambda-based CUVs, which get significantly better mileage than full-size SUVs.” See? I made that last bit up and you didn’t even notice.

By on September 25, 2008

As I state in the podcast, I believe that the current economic crisis is the inevitable result of easy credit. Leading this charge (in all senses of the word): the U.S. government. Uncle Sam and his state, county and city-based cousins have been living beyond my means for decades, lavishing tax money on lobbyists’ love interests like Hugh Hefner doling-out big-breasted Bunnies to a grotto full of coked-out film producers. Yes, companies and private individuals have also been on a drunken spree. But at this time when two aspiring presidents are yakking about the importance of leadership, neither Senator nor ANY of their cohorts are discussing the importance of reholstering the federal teat. I find it astounding that the House of Reps can slip $25b low-interest “loans” for a doomed domestic auto industry into a housekeeping bill. It’s emblematic of all that’s wrong with our current system: digging ourselves deeper into debt to get ourselves out of debt, without making the tough choices that balancing the books requires. These days, when GM sneezes, America says bless you! And hands it The Mother of All Tissues. That ain’t right.

By on September 25, 2008

Well, now that NBC’s lawyers have swooped down on the net like a helicopter appearing from out of nowhere, we can’t warn you not to click on a link to the entire episode of last night’s Knight Rider– the only TV show in the history of the world (ever) that can make Bewitched seem like Beowulf. Watch the preview above, but do not view the latest episode of the latest Knight Rider; you will never get that 42:38 seconds back. But if you feel you must, I highly recommend Autoblog’s live blog log as the best way to navigate to/around the truly excrutiating bits. Normally, Autoblog’s unabashed, puppy-dog-like love of all things automotive makes their PR-inspired analysis the equivalent of listening to an over-earnest co-worker describing a particularly boring meeting while he’s pissing in the adjacent urinal. But this time, Alex Nunez provides us with comic friggin’ gold. Or, if you prefer, haiku hilarity. “8:08: A Cobra (helicopter) shoots a missile at our fearless heroes. It is the world’s slowest missile.” I swear this is Autoblog’s. Best. Post. Ever.

By on September 25, 2008

You may recall (or continue to choose not to if you work in Motown) that 2007 marked the first year when more U.S. new car buyers shopped for Asian than American brands. The trend continues. Automotive News had a look at J.D. Powers’ recent stats on the subject and provide the takeaway: “The Asian edge grew in 2008, with 63 percent of buyers considering Asian cars and 55 percent American cars.” Yes, there’s overlap. And yes, “consideration” led to sales. “In a survey of nearly 30,000 new-car buyers conducted between May and July, J.D. Power found that Asian vehicles won out for 58 percent of buyers who considered both American and Asian new cars, up from 55 percent in 2007. Only 40 percent of consumers looking at cars from both regions chose American autos, down from 43 percent last year.” It gets worse. A lot worse. “Those who decided on American products cited a desire to buy American and the incentives that U.S. carmakers offer as their top two reasons for choosing an American brand. Those who bought an Asian vehicle cited better retained value, reliability and gas mileage as their top three reasons for choosing a car from that region, according to the survey.” And worse. “Consumers cited high prices, high monthly payments and low gas mileage as their top three reasons for rejecting a vehicle, the survey found.”

By on September 25, 2008

John Mizroch is, of course, pro-E85 to a fault. According to FarmWeek, the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Acting Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy told participants at a Indianapolis renewable energy conference that the nine billion gallons of ethanol “brought online to date” have saved consumers nationwide a “not-insignificant” 25 cents in per-gallon gasoline costs. And that’s just for starters. “I don’t personally believe it [corn-based ethanol] has added significantly to the price of food commodities. I think our industry could sustain up to the limits of the RFS.” (For those of you who don’t keep track of Uncle Sam’s every market distortion, that’s the federally-mandated 21b gallons of bio-fuels by 2022 Renewable Fuel Standard.) Yes, BUT– Mizroch admitted that DOE research now focuses on emerging fuel feedstocks, with “virtually no work in corn ethanol.” In other words, you got the ball rolling farmer John. We’ll take it from here. “Many of the players in the current industry are critical to the success of the future cellulosic, non-foodstock industry,” Mizroch asserted to FarmWeek. But not all or even most, we note. Well, not until the farm lobby gets involved, anyway.

By on September 25, 2008

By on September 24, 2008

Automotive News [AN, sub] reports that the U.S. House of Representatives have passed a bill which includes authorization for $25b in federal low-interest loans for Detroit. The legislation, originally designed to help Detroit automakers retool 20-year-old-plus factories to build automobiles that are 25 percent more fuel efficient than similar models, cleared the Reps by a margin of 370 to 58. The Senate will rubber stamp the bill– whose main purpose is to keep government running in the new fiscal year that begins Octover first– by the weekend. President Bush is expected to sign it next week. And before that’s done, Detroit’s minions will do everything in their power to get their hands on the cash and subvert Congress’ original intent for the bailout billions.  As AN puts it, “The final version of the bill is expected to include language that would speed the issuance of the loans and the adoption of rules by the Department of Energy that would govern their use, said John Bozzella, Chrysler LLC’s vice president of global external affairs and public policy.” Meanwhile Rep. John Dingell, chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, was over the friggin’ moon. “Some critics will call this loan package a bailout,” the Michigan democrats statement admitted. “It is not. These loans amount to a little more than 1 percent of the real bailout — the one that the Bush administration wants for Wall Street at a cost of $700 billion to taxpayers.” So it’s not a bailout that’s less than the other bailout. Makes sense to me.

By on September 24, 2008

Man, this news cycle is insane. Another Automotive News [sub] alert, this time telling us that the infamous Bill Heard dealership chain is toast. All 13 stores are about to close their doors. “The company notified the stores’ general managers at 2 p.m. today, the source said, who spoke anonymously because he was not authorized to speak.” The source offered a predictable litany of factors (aside from the fact that Bill Heard is one of the most reviled automotive chains in American history). “High fuel prices, cancelled floorplanning from GMAC Financial Services, a reliance on trucks and SUVs, a soft national economy and struggles in local markets had troubled the company, which on Sept. 12 closed its store in Scottsdale, Ariz.” The story behind the story will take some unearthing, but the damage to GM caused by the loss of “Mr. Volume” is calculable. “Bill Heard Enterprises, of Columbus, Ga., ranks No. 13 on the Automotive News list of the top 125 U.S. dealership groups, with 2007 group revenue of $2.13 billion.”

By on September 24, 2008

True dat. “The Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia announced that the consumer confidence indicator increased 8 percentage points month-on-month in September to reach its highest level since August 2007.” Meanwhile, here in the U.S., “The customer is telling us that their head is in a completely different place than in April when gas went above $3.50 per gallon. Their heads are right now where, ‘I’ve got to be more careful and I feel like I have less wealth,’ and that brings the whole industry down.” Sorry we missed that little bit of Cheech and Chongism from FoMoCo’s Marketing Guy Jim Farley [via Reuters]. But even if Farley seems a little lost in the [blue] clouds, the man’s not wrong. The current U.S. financial meltdown is hardly likely to encourage the average American consumer to run down to his local car dealer and sign-up for a three to (gulp) six-year loan. And even if they felt so inclined, as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress, “The intensification of financial stress in recent weeks, which will make lenders still more cautious about extending credit to households and business, could prove a significant further drag on growth.” Bailout bucks notwithstanding, with gasoline shortages and the prospect of recession looming, the U.S. car market has hit the wall. “Economic activity appears to have decelerated broadly,” Bernanke warned, with British-quality understatement. If you don’t know it now, wait ’til TTAC reports September’s new car sales results…

By on September 24, 2008

Automotive News has sent an alert to its subs, and it’s not just because the autoblogsphere needs more lerts (submarine joke deleted). The publication reports the official announcement: “Daimler confirms that the company is in discussions with Cerberus Capital Management regarding the redemption of its remaining 19.9 [percent ownership of Chrysler].” Redemption? I don’t think so. Anyway, what’s up with that? Well, here’s a clue: nobody’s talking about price. Riddle me this Moustache Man: if ChryCo goes down the chute marked Chapter 11, could creditors go after the still-solvent Daimler? Uh-huh. So, just as Cerberus used OPM (Other People’s Money) to finance their original purchase of the soon-to-be-ailing American automaker, it’s entirely possible that Daimler’s paying them to take Chrysler off their hands. So why would Cerberus want that 19.9 back? It would be a lot easier to ask for an undisguised federal bailout with ChryCo as 100 percernt ‘Merican. Now matter how the deal goes down, if down it goes, it’s back to” The Big Three” ’round here. Only Honda’s bigger than Ford and Chrysler now. Oh dear.

By on September 24, 2008

I love The Autoextremist. What a great name! Sure, it’s better suited to a championship wrestler than an automotive analyst. But it’s also entirely, deliciously misleading. Peter DeLorenzo’s views on car sales, marketing and branding are about as “far out” as Brooks Brothers’ plaid pants. Even though Motown execs must surely view Peter as the nutter in the attic, DeLorenzo is always pulling for the home team. But I think he’s gone too far this time. In rant #464, Sweet Pete’s sweet on the Bavarian outside the gates. Specifically, BMW NA Prez Jim O’Donnell. After doing the WTF routine on the German brands’ model proliferation, DeLorenzo lauds the Bimmer suit for trimming imports by 44k, cutting leases by 10 percent, reducing spending on incentive marketing and spiking the marque’s blow-out December sale. (We’ll see about that one.) Supposedly, all these moves indicates genius. DeLorenzo reckons O’Donnel wants to return BMW to its upmarket– or is that four-cylinder downmarket?– roots: “hallefrickinluja.” Meanwhile, back in the real world, O’Donnel is doing sweet FA to trim product lines and the measures Pete describes are a reaction to declining market conditions and the credit squeeze– which will do nothing to reposition the brand. If Peter wants to give credit where credit’s not due, he should applaud GM CEO Rick Wagoner for putting GM dealers out of business trimming GM’s dealer count. In other words, if the truth doesn’t hurt, it may not be the truth.

By on September 24, 2008

After revealing JIT bailout bait (i.e. three potential electric vehicles), Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli had a “confidential” chin wag with his dealers. Needless to say, the bottom line was the bottom line. According to sources blabbing to The Wall Street Journal [via Reuters], Nardelli told ChryCo store owners that the corporate mothership had lost $400m year-to-date. Boot ‘Em Bob added that sales fell 24 percent through August and Chrysler had $11 billion in cash. I’m not sure where Nardelli got his 24 percent figure from, nor the $400m red ink stain, or the $11b in cash reserves. But the fact that the official spokesman declared that Chrysler’s “not in the black on a net basis” leads me to wonder if the books have been set on low or medium heat. Just sayin’…  Oh, and Chrysler owner Cerberus says it lost $1.6b so far this year. For a company generating a self-proclaimed “$100 billion in annual revenues,” that’s chicken feed. Still, to paraphrase the old Midas Mufflers’ commercial, “How do you think a company like that got to be a company like that?”

By on September 24, 2008

We’ve already reported that Forbes thinks buying a new SUV from just about anyone in these time of killer depreciation is a damn fine idea. Apparently, the mag’s enthusiasm for vehicles with barge pole marks also extends to other advertisers unloved automobiles. “Cars Worth A Second Look” can be roughly translated into “Four-Wheeled Dogs You Can Get for A Song.” Poster child for this ten worst best list: the Saab 9-5. “It’s not that the Saab 9-5 is a bad car, ‘it just doesn’t flow well’ with some people, says Stephanie Brinley, auto analyst at AutoPacific, an industry research and analysis firm. The interior is a little bit ‘off center’ with the ignition located on the center console and not the steering column or dash board, which is appealing to ‘a little different buyer with a little different personality,’ she adds. The fact that it sits on an ancient (i.e. decrepit) platform has nothing to do with it. This time out, Jacqueline Mitchell (for it is her) factors crap sales (sub-10k), safety (“acceptable” crash rating or better), EPA mileage (17 – 20mpg) and five-year cost of ownership (including depreciation!). [Mitsubishi Outlander, Mazda Tribute, Mazda5, Volvo S80, Audi A6, Hyundai Veracruz, Hyundai Entourage, Acura RL, Audi A3 (captioned A2 in the slide show), Saab 9-5]

By on September 24, 2008

According to AutoWeek, it’s currently a backlash of one: Scott Weires. The Florida attorney canceled his order for a GT-R after learning that Nissan’s taken the accident data recorder black box thing to a whole new level. “Unlike an EDR [electronic data recorder], which activates only when sensors indicate that a crash is imminent or has occurred, Nissan’s VSDR [vehicle status data recorder] runs constantly, collecting information such as wheel and engine speed. The device, thought to be a first in the automotive industry [tell that to BMW M3 owners], stores more than a few days’ but less than a week’s worth of data on the vehicle’s operation, Nissan says. The VSDR cannot be deactivated.” Never mind speeding, although that’s certainly a worry. It’s all about the warranty. “Nissan specifically warns owners that they could void warranty protection by running a car with its vehicle dynamic control (VDC), governing traction and stability, turned off. (In fairness to Nissan, the owner’s manual does allow owners to defeat VDC when wheelspin is needed to rock a car that’s stuck in snow or mud.)” Sure, that’s fair. And there’s another, justifiable concern: “We do realize that some customers will take their car to the track for all-out driving,” Ed Hibma, senior manager for technical support with Nissan North America. “But racing is different.” Pistonheads will remember (though I can’t recall the exact details) that manufacturers have been known to prowl the internets for racing photos. Paranoid? Consider the fact that the Japanese-spec GTR limits the car to 111 mph– unless the GPS knows you’re on a race track (not racing). Or the GT-R’s 156mph U.S. speed limiter.

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