Well, you can't accuse either side of the political spectrum of hanging around while gas prices have opened-up the debate on America's energy policy, or lack thereof. While President Bush has removed the executive order against off-shore drilling (over to you congress), former Vice President Al Gore has asked Americans to help foot the bill for a ten-year, three trillion dollar "moon shot" effort to switch to "clean" electricity from solar, wind and geothermal power. While this is an extremely inconvenient solution for coal mining states that leaves pro-nuclear partisans in the cold, I mention Al's plan here because it's implicit that the transition would enable a nation of plug-in hybrids or pure EVs. Hey, what about hydrogen? Big Al made no mention of water vaporware. But The Boston Herald reports that a group of scientists have priced-out a U.S. switch to hydrogen-powered vehicles at $200b. No mention was made of the energy source for the fuel, but apparently the the Committee on Assessment of Resource Needs for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technologies have bigger fish to fry (deep freeze?). "The cost of platinum is approximately 57 percent of the fuel-cell stack costs and represents the greatest challenge to further cost reductions," the study said. "Future platinum supply is a critical issue in forward projections of fuel-cell costs." If it's not one thing, it's another.
Posts By: Robert Farago
Automotive News reports that members of GM's national dealer council purchased more than 107k GM shares on July 14. The store owners claim the million dollar move was a symbolic gesture to "show support and confidence in GM's future." No really. "We firmly believe in GM and that we have the best products to sell," proclaimed Duane Paddock, co-chair of GM's national dealer council and owner of Paddock Chevrolet in Kenmore, N.Y. "Our fuel economy is the best story in the industry and the best way to do it [the show support thing] was to buy an investment stock." Paddock says he added $100k worth of GM shares to his $200k position. [Reporter Jamie Lareau neglected to ask if that 200 large represented his original investment or a recent valuation.] The dealers made the purchase the day before Rick Wagoner's cost-cutting announcement. The day after Wagoner's chin wag, GM stock rose 16.6 percent, closing at $11.48. Today, GM stock surged another 11.9 percent, closing at $12.85 a share. It has to be asked– if not by the SEC then by us– was this really an It's a Wonderful Life-style gesture or was it insider dealing dressed-up for the media?
Motown pundit Peter DeLorenzo frequently takes his hometown heroes to task for their insularity. It's more than a bit ironic; the self-styled Autoextremist steadfastly refuses to allow comments underneath his weekly rants. The columnist also backed out of simultaneous TTAC publication because he didn't want to respond to TTAC's Best and Brightest when they ripped his writing to shreds thoughtfully analyzed his insightful commentary. In e-pistle 454, DeLorenzo once again tries to play it both ways. On one hand, he [once again] validates the so-called "perception gag." You know; the deep psychological chasm between U.S. consumers' understanding of GM and Ford's products (ominously enough, Chrysler's been excluded) and the vehicles' "true" competitiveness with their transplanted rivals. Well, some of them. OK, the Chevy Mailbu. On the other hand, Sweet Pete takes Detroit to task for "indecision, non-decisions and monumentally bone-headed decisions." In sum, uber-mensch Bob Lutz and his pals tried hard, got tripped-up (in just three months) by gas prices and their handlers' stupidity, and who the fuck do you think you are criticizing Detroit anyway, Jane, you ignorant slut? Despite DeLorenzo's writing talent, it's clear the inside outsider is rhetorically conflicted. But at least DeLorenzo has doubts. Even now, deep into the last act of a Shakespearian tragedy, the same can not be said for the people who once paid his salary.
OK, we get it. If you're texting your BFF <3 whilst driving, cause an accident and kill someone, you do hard time. But if I read the Pistonheads story correctly, that's up to seven years. In other words, it's a maximum– not a minimum– sentence. And why pick on texting? Doesn't The Land of Hope and Glory have a general charge of "causing death by dangerous driving," or some such thing? Not yet, they don't. "Ministers now want to see the two new offences – causing death by careless driving and causing death while unlicenced, disqualified or uninsured – pushed through as soon as possible." Again, what's with a separate anti-texting caveat? "The council said it wanted to send a ‘clear message’ to those who text while driving that it will not be tolerated." Uh, OK. But I'm little concerned about the Council throwing the book at killer drivers with a history of "bad driving." "Very serious cases, where drugs, alcohol or persistent bad driving are involved, could warrant a jail term of up to 14 years, the [Sentencing Guidelines] council said." ?4U. Is it prima facie if you accidentally kill someone but have a bad driving record?
Wrong. Establishing that fact seems simple enough, right? Take the price of E85 at the pump, figure in (out?) the loss of fuel efficiency (roughly 25 percent), forget about the taxpayer-supported .50 per gallon "blender's credit," recalculate the cost and compare it to the price of regular gas. If that's too much of a bother, go to the American Automobile Association's fuelgaugereport.com. Yesterday, an average gallon of regular cost $4.10. A BTU-adjusted gallon of corn juice cost $4.37. So, why is The Earth Times proclaiming "Gas Prices Got You Down? Don't Get Mad … Get Ethanol!" Because they're running The International Institute for Ecological Agriculture's press release verbatim. Oh, did I mention the "Institute" is a front for pro-E85 author (and Hawaiian shirt devotee) David Blume? Anyway, Blume writes "According to David Arkin of Arkin Tilt Architects… 'Ethanol can be part of one's path to a carbon neutral lifestyle. It costs less than gasoline, is readily available, and — when grown and produced properly — can help combat climate change through both its clean emissions and the potential to sequester carbon.'" And according to the man himself, "If everyone used 30% ethanol in their unmodified cars we would be able to cease buying any oil from the Middle East, ending our dependence, our crushing military expenditures there, and our National Guard could be brought home from Iraq. Converting completely to US made ethanol would make our economy literally bombproof to the explosive price increases we can expect oil to sustain as it runs out." Now how much would you pay?
Sam scraped the Honda Odyssey. Again. This after stoving-in the Boxster's front end and then, after its repair, scraping the roadster's flanks. There was a time when I would get seriously bent out of shape about one of my cars getting bent out of shape. Love. Age. Maturity. Perspective. Cash flow. Lexapro. Although I've surmounted many of my OCD's detailing demands, I still appreciate the pursuit of perfection, and the value of persistence for those embarking on that endless, maddening quest. Not to put too fine a point on it, leapfrogging is for losers. The key to success: keep hammering away with focus, passion and persistence. Either that or read and follow The [somewhat contradictory] 48 Laws of Power. In either case, complacency is the enemy. As TTAC slowly comes into its own (which is a lot less gross than it sounds), rest assured that the editorial team will never become smug or self-satisfied. We will alway listen to criticism, and respond with respect. To that end, a simple question (flame rules active): what would you change about this website? You know; other than the fact I just sent out three New Content Notifications…
Fair and… mentally balanced? I'm not so sure. But one thing is certain: there's a new spinmeister in town. Speaking with Automotive News [sub], GM Chief Financial Officer Ray Young whirled a mean dervish. "There are reports that we were in crisis," Young said, confusing his tenses. "That's far from the truth. We run a dynamic planning process here, so we're constantly feeling the market. We have a certain view of the United States economy and a view of the oil prices. After the month of June, our assessment of the U.S economy made us realize there's a lot more risk in this economy than we thought initially." D'oh! And then scribe Jamie "I Ain't No Stinkin' Lap Dog" Lareau asks "Will this plan save the corporation?" Whoa, Dude! Or, as Young says, "It's going to allow us to handle a very conservative set of industry assumptions, a very conservative set of mixed assumptions and provide ample liquidity through 2009. We're still working through 2010 plans. To me that's still too far away." If only Toyota thought so short term. Anyway, Young says bankruptcy is "not in the cards" and Car Czar Bob Lutz is playing with a full deck [kidding]. Also, the Beancounter has not been asked to price-up the cost of a brand termination. "I keep on reminding our organization that cash is king. I'm not sure what it would cost to eliminate a channel, but when we closed Oldsmobile that cost $1 billion. That's a lot of money."
Does that include big-ass tax credits for Chevy's plug-in hybrid electric – gas Volt? Federal loan guarantees? I'm thinking… yes. But Barack ain't saying nothin'– other than it's all the republicans' fault, vote for me and I'll sort this shit out. As Reuters reports, "Democratic Presidential hopeful Sen. Barack Obama said today that the job cuts at General Motors Corp. were 'a sober reminder of the difficult economic times we're facing,' and said the U.S. auto industry was facing a 'perfect storm' of trouble." Yes, "when a mainstay of the American economy is forced to make a restructuring decision like the one General Motors is announcing today, it is a sober reminder of the difficult economic times we're facing and of why we need change and a new direction in Washington." Uh, did I miss something? What restructuring? Anyway, "My heart goes out to all the workers and families in Michigan and across the country who will be affected as well as those who have been impacted over the last few months and years of turbulence in the auto industry." FYI McCain has come out against a federal bailout for Detroit. Barack… isn't so sure.
Earlier this morning, GM CEO Rick Wagoner announced a cost-cutting package designed to "better align the business to the current market condition." He's cutting bonuses, pushing salarymen out the door, disappearing the dividend, postponing the union's health care payment, putting truck development on ice, yada yada yada. While the media focuses on the scope and scale of Rick's "right-sizing," the money shot arrives in the last six words of the official press release. Apparently, GM has "an ever stronger and competitive product line-up." Nonsense. And until that's true, GM's doomed. Which means GM's doomed.
Why? Non-sales of GM's two-mode hybrid SUVs and pickup have thoroughly discredited the system as an expensive affectation. And although oil burners' adherents couldn't be more rabid if they were bitten by a foaming fox, there's little evidence to suggest that mainstream consumers want to pay the estimated $2k premium for a diesel powerpant AND a buck more per gallon at the pump. Still, what do I know? The Windsor Star says it's two-mode speed ahead for the former Daimler division. "J.D. Power reports that Chrysler intends to put its two-mode hybrid system in the Grand Caravan starting next year. Chrysler will start offering the same system in its Aspen and Dodge Durango SUVs next month, at prices starting about $5,000 less than the GM vehicles." Yes, well, that's $4k MORE than a gas version, BEFORE discounts. [NB: June sales reveal that the Durango's dead and the Aspen is deaderer.] As for the re-badged Caravan soon-to-be-unknown as the VW Routan, "Volkswagen could go in two directions… either by offering one of its own four-cylinder diesel engines, which would offer excellent fuel economy but be considered rather underpowered compared to gasoline-powered minivans, or by offering the three-litre Mercedes diesel that Chrysler is currently offering as an option in its Grand Cherokee." Decisions, decisions…
Industrialinfo.com [sub] reports that China's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has approved three biodiesel plants to convert tung tree nuts into fuel. For those in love with Google Earth, the plants will open in Nanchong (Sichuan province), Guizhou province and Beijing (Hainan province). The "demonstration projects" are set to yield just 50 – 60k tons of fuel per year apiece. To put that into perspective… "As a large diesel consumer, China's annual diesel consumption is about 70 million metric tons per year. Of this, about one-third of the consumption is from import. Based on the estimate of the International Energy Agency, China is the second largest petroleum consumer in the world and has a growing reliance on imported petroleum." Tung tree oil is a beloved sealant amongst kitchen remodelers and woodworkers. But don't get to thinking the U.S. could go cuckoo for tung nuts. Florida's experiment with the plants didn't pan out; vernicia fordii is now considered an invasive species. Oh, and even the smell of tung oil is enough to give nut-aversive people a severe reaction. The stuff we learn on your behalf…
The fact that Tesla Chairman Elon Musk owns a solar power and space launch company is, at least potentially, a perfect trifecta. When Musk finally announces that Space X will be launching solar panels into orbit to beam juice to a million gen3 EVs, he'll square the circle. Until then, we just have to listen to more co- and tri-branded crap. This time, it's Newsweek's Fareed Zakaria (author of The Post-America World) in Tesla's spinning teacups. "Q. What's your goal in producing the Tesla Roadster. A. This car itself is not going to change the world—it's a $100,000 sports car being produced in quantities of about 1,800 a year." "About" meaning… 50? Less? "Q. When you plug into an outlet, you're in effect plugging into coal, because a lot of the electricity produced in the United States is coal-fired. Does that bother you from a global-warming perspective? A. I'm very familiar with the "long tailpipe" criticism. I have another company, SolarCity, which is the largest provider of solar power to homes and businesses in California. The solution is to get a SolarCity solar panel on your roof and then have an electric car. It takes actually only a small solar-panel setup—of about 10 by 15 feet—to generate 200 to 400 miles a week of electricity for your car." So, are we cool?
GM's given the media a heads-up that CEO Rick Wagoner is about to outline "actions to better align the business to the current market conditions" (i.e. reveal their new new new new new turnaround plan). It's a bit of a bitch, as I have a General Motors Death Watch queued-up for your dining and dancing pleasure. Rest assured I'll have TTAC's take on Wagoner's latest pre-apocalypse prevarications minutes after the other shoe hangs in the air. Meanwhile, it's worth noting that Automotive News [sub] scribe Jamie Lareau felt obliged to preview the forthcoming cut and shunt by stating "The message is not likely to be an announcement of management changes or that GM is filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, a source familiar with GM told Automotive News today. The news will be 'fairly upbeat,' the source said." That's a mind-boggling bit of writing on two levels. First, you know it's bad when a generally supportive member of the automotive press feels obliged to tell people you're not choosing the nuclear option. And second, what the Hell could Wagoner say that could possibly be "upbeat?" The only good news on any GM front is that sales overseas are up– foreign ops without which GM would have a negative market capitalization.
To paraphrase an old expression, it stops being funny when it starts costing you billions. And make no mistake about it: Cerberus' investment in Chrysler has cost the private equity firm some serious scratch. Bloomberg reports that "The $7.5 billion Cerberus Institutional Partners Series Four [15-month-old fund] lost $32 million on $3.3 billion in investments through March 31… hurt by stakes in unprofitable companies including Chrysler LLC." That one percent drop might not seem like a lot of money in a shaky U.S. economy, but fans of Cerberus' top dog are used to returns in the neighborhood of 25 percent per year. Needless to say, Chrysler's been a bit of a drag for the three-headed dog, all things considered. "Founder Stephen Feinberg plowed as much $4 billion into automaker Chrysler and GMAC LLC, the former vehicle- and home- lending arm of General Motors Corp., before they were battered by the subprime-mortgage collapse and gas prices that rose 34 percent in the past year." Again, that's before the shit hit the fan. Bloomberg points out that Chrysler probably accounts for no more than five percent of Hell Dog's latest fund, and that the ailing American automaker is, supposedly, besting Cerberus' projections. Still, $375m here, $375m there…
The average U.S. consumer is done with SUVs and full-size pickups. Although the shift may have had something to do with safety concerns, political correctness and environmental awareness, probably not. The simple truth is that rising gas prices killed the genre faster than Old Sparky took out Pedro Medina. Of course, that hasn't stopped the left – right debates surrounding the private ownership of gas guzzlers, or, indeed, cars. We've been chronicling the UK's anti-car jihad for some time; recently highlighting their oppressive, CO2-based tax regimes (which even have the left up in arms). The Huffington Post's Sean-Paul Kelley provides us with a U.S. equivalent of the UK hard-core anti-car elite, penning a dietribe against personal transportation. "To me a car is like a prison sentence," Kelley opines, before totting-up the cost of running a car. "Wouldn't you rather save $8,000 a year and only pay $2,000 a year in infrastructure taxes to ride the subway? Or an excellent bus system? And improve our national rail network? As a part of the bargain you would walk more, get exercise, be healthier and as another bonus spend more time in closer quarters with your fellow Americans, building communities, making new friends, the chance meetings of people reading the same book on the metro or bus?" Kelley cuts non-urban dwellers a bit of slack, but not much. Look for more of this in the days, weeks and years to come…
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