With California’s Air Resource Board and the EPA set to unleash new 2016-2025 CAFE standards, the Alliance of Automotive Manuacturers, which represents foreign and domestic automakers, is lashing out, telling Automotive News [sub]

We all want to put the most fuel-efficient vehicles as possible on the road, but for the 2017 rulemaking, policymakers still need to gather and analyze much data to determine the maximum feasible fuel economy standards that avoid negative impacts on affordability, safety, jobs and vehicle choice. No one knows what the 2025 target should be yet, and the data needs to drive the rulemaking.

But not everyone in the industry is on board with the AAM’s CAFE-skepticism. Already, Hyundai Motors USA CEO John Krafcik tells TTAC his firm plans to “Overcomply” with the coming CAFE standards, and now Toyota is joining Hyundai in breaking ranks, with Jim Colon, VP for Product Communications saying

The administration is engaged. That’s the direction Toyota is already going. Whatever goal they establish, Toyota will be prepared to meet. If it’s 62 miles a gallon, we’ll be able to achieve that.

Rep Sander Levin (D-MI) has introduced legislation which would increase the cap on consumer tax credits for plug-in electric vehicles.The current subsidy allows consumers to take a $7,500 taz credit, but caps the number of qualifying credits at 200k per manufacturer, but Levin’s bill would raise that to 500k units. Said Levin in a statement

Green vehicles represent the vanguard of automotive innovation, but they have to be economical for consumers and profitable for manufacturers. Raising the cap on this credit will help carmakers reach the demand and production scale necessary for long-term viability.

To which, his brother Senator Carl Levin, adds

The U.S. auto industry is poised for a technological explosion that promises to fundamentally change transportation here and around the world. But if we fail to support this revolution, workers in China, India, South Korea and our other competitors will build these vehicles instead of American workers.

The call to raise the cap for EV consumer tax credits was first publicly raised by GM’s Tom Stephens, who argued that 200k units was inufficient government support to keep the Volt viable until the second generation comes out. At the time, Rep Debbie Stabenow argued that credits should be “front-loaded” and deducted from the price of the vehicle at the dealership, but that proposal seems to have fallen b the wayside.

The US Court of Appeal for the Eighth Circuit on Monday overturned the sentence of a man convicted based on questionable testimony about a traffic stop. Despite clear evidence that a police officer contradicted himself regarding the reason he pulled over Ronald Prokupek on February 29, 2008, a magistrate in Nebraska and a federal district court judge still found him guilty. The three-judge appellate panel strongly disagreed, noting the rarity of the situation where it was forced to declare the lower court judges guilty of “clear error” in their decisions.

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GM has just dropped a press release [in .docx format here] announcing that it has withdrawn its request for $14.4b in low-cost government retooling loans through the Department of Energy’s “Section 136” or ATVM loan program. Says CFO Chris Liddell

This decision is based on our confidence in GM’s overall progress and strong, global business performance. Withdrawing our DOE loan application is consistent with our goal to carry minimal debt on our balance sheet. Our forgoing government loans will not slow our aggressive plans to bring more new vehicles and technologies to the market as quickly as we can. We will continue to make the necessary investments to assert our industry leadership in technology and fuel economy.

Color us stunned. The “136” loan program was nearly used as a slush fund to bail out GM and Chrysler before President Bush ruled that the automakers qualified for TARP relief. Shortly after the bailout, GM said that the loan program was “one of the sources of liquidity GM is factoring into its plans in order to meet its capital requirements in the future.” More recently, it seemed that the loan program was on hold while GM and Chrysler were qualifying for loan requests that would have drained the program of funds. Now, with GM’s request dropped from the queue, there could be as much as $10b left for other manufacturers. Plus, by turning down cheap government loans, GM has made its first major (voluntary) step towards beating back the Government Motors moniker. Good for them.

After receiving an award from the Italian car magazine Quattroruote, Ralph Nader used the opportunity to tell the assembled crowd that

Now that Fiat has purchased Chrysler, it has the moral obligation to remedy the deadly fuel tank design in the Jeep Grand Cherokee before more innocent victims are burned today, not only in the United States, but also in Europe,

Nader’s beef according to Automotive News [sub]: the 1993-2004 JGC

“is a modern-day Pinto for soccer moms” because the fuel tank is behind the rear axle below the rear bumper… In addition, the 1993-98 Grand Cherokees are flawed because the filler hose goes through the frame rail and is pulled out of the fuel tank

NHTSA has been investigating the 3m or so Grand Cherokees built with this “design flaw” since August, based on evidence that this issue played a role in 22 “fiery crashes” and 14 deaths. Initial NHTSA reports claim the JGC has no disproportionate risk of fires, but Nader contests the claim, arguing that some 44 crashes involved the “design flaw” which he argues caused some 64 deaths. Given the many problems with NHTSA’s reporting system, it’s tough to tell who has the truth on their side in this conflict, but Chrysler insists that the investigation should end even though

it moved and shielded the fuel tank, starting with 2005 models

The accuracy of the speed cameras deployed by Forest Heights on Indian Head Highway (State Highway 210) has been questioned by local residents were claiming innocent drivers were being ticketed. Citation photos appear to show many cases that speed cameras in Forest Heights cited vehicles for speeds far in excess of the speeds the citation images indicate.

First, Forest Height’s speed cameras are a proprietary design by Optotraffic, a division of Sigma Space Corporation. These cameras are neither radar (like most cameras used in Montgomery County) nor are they exactly like traditional police LIDAR. Technical specifications for Optotraffic’s cameras can be viewed here.

To simplify it, Optotraffic’s cameras work by taking two laser sensors into each lane of traffic. The device “records the time when each sensor detected the object.” The speed is then calculated as “Measured Speed = Distance/Time.” If a vehicle is determined to be exceeding a predefined threshold speed, a short distance/period of time later the device snaps two photos a fraction of a second apart.

So why would someone think the devices are inaccurate? Well, because many people have gotten tickets from Forest Heights for speeds they know they were not traveling at. Some of them performed their own distance/time calculations from the citation images which produced an extremely different speed than what they were cited for.

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It’s a nice idea: Each car is equipped with a wireless beacon, transmitting speed, direction and whatnot to other cars. For years, people have been dreaming about this. Now they could have found the killer app for the technology: By mashing up that information, collision courses could be plotted and lives could be saved. Exactly that was demonstrated yesterday to federal officials in Washington. Read More >

The privileged life of the Chinese government employee is coming to an end. The southern metropolis of Guangzhou (formerly known as Canton) will be using GPS to track usage of the city’s government vehicles, with the aim of preventing their unauthorized personal use. It’s not that the city is trying to curb unnecessary spending. Read More >

With a new year, the do-gooders at Advocates For Highway and Auto Safety have produced a new rating of states performance in adopting the safety laws they espouse, including open-container laws, mandatory motorcycle helmets, ramped-up privileges for teen drivers and booster seat standards.  If you buy into the idea that more laws equals more safety, this iconographic is all you need to determine how “safe” your state is. If, on the other hand, you believe that some of AFHAS’s recommended laws are better than others, you’ll want to go through their complete report [in PDF here] to see whether your state’s laws measure up to your expectations. Sorry, but Democracy still isn’t a spectator sport.

Hard on the heels of yesterday’s story on Hyundai’s preparation for CAFE standard ramp-ups comes this counterpoint, courtesy of the Detroit Free Press. Walter McManus, director of automotive analysis at the University of Michigan’s Transportation Research Institute, did his own study on a possible 43 MPG 2020 standard and his findings, as presented at a Citi Investment Research conference call, seem quite positive for American-based automakers. McManus’s research took several  basic assumptions for granted in order to reach his conclusions, namely that

• Gas prices will average $4 a gallon between now and 2020.

• Industry sales will be 16.3 million vehicles in 2020.

• Every manufacturer complies with 2016 CAFÉ standard.

• Plug-in hybrids and electric vehicles will be less profitable than gas-engine vehicles.

Now, right off the bat it’s possible to take exception to some of those assumptions. If gas doesn’t crack four dollars per gallon before 2020, for example, this blogger will be one confused student of history. Also, predicting over 16m units of new car sales is by no means a sure thing. Though a comfortable industry assumption based on the “old normal,” there aren’t many indications that 16m+ annual new car sales was a sustainable level for the US economy. Still, Mr McManus has been doing this for a while, so we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. So, given his assumptions, what does he foresee for Detroit as it moves to meet a 43 MPG standard by 2020? In two words: great success.

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Unable to verify the accuracy of certain speed camera readings, the government of Alberta, Canada announced Monday that it would issue full refunds to motorists. Doubt surrounds speeding citations issued from any of the forty-seven red light camera intersections in the city of Edmonton under a program known as “speed on green.” The refunds cover automated tickets mailed between November 2009 and January 14, 2011.

“This is the right action to take,” Minister of Justice and Attorney General Alison Redford said in a statement. “Our first concern is the fair administration of justice, and we cannot proceed with legal action when there is doubt about the accuracy of the city’s speed on green ticket technology.”

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Remember how the government bailout team forgot to make sure its “Irrevocable Ecological Commitment” from Fiat was measured in “adjusted” Miles Per Gallon, using the EPA test cycle that provides your window sticker number? Well, the same “unadjusted” MPG number Sergio Marchionne used to his advantage is used to calculate the CAFE ratings that have the industry in such an tizzy. Well, the official lobbying parts of the industry, anyway [see also, here]. Hyundai has been saying for some time that it is targeting a 50 MPG fleet average by 2025, although CEO John Krafcik said as recently as August that he didn’t know how the automaker would reach that goal.  Now, however, it looks like he’s found a way to bring 50 MPG within reach: use CAFE’s “unadjusted” standard. Just like Sergio. Follow along as Hyundai shows that 50 MPG isn’t as far off as many seem to believe.

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California, the perennial thorn in the side of the EPA’s emissions-regulation scheme, has bowed to federal pressure and will wait until September of this year to release its 2017-2025 Model Year emissions standard proposal, by which time the EPA will be ready to announce its own national scheme. Prior to today’s announcement, California’s Air Resources Board (CARB) had “announced its intention” to release its proposal in March, a move which had automakers scrambling to complain to congress of the apparent lack of unity on emissions standards. GM and Chrysler even endured a (somewhat predictable) Naderite drubbing in the WaPo in order to to join the howls against the emerging “patchwork of state and national standards!”

Luckily for the automakers, CARB was willing to play ball. Per the WSJ:

Stanley Young, a spokesman for the California Air Resources Board, said the state agreed to the White House’s timetable after being assured the new fuel-economy targets would be based on studies currently being done on the feasibility of the proposed 62-mpg [by 2025] standard.

The studies are examining the technological and financial ramifications of the proposed standard, he said.

“We’re looking forward to seeing the results of the final data from the engineering studies,” Mr. Young said. He added that the board has always cooperated with the EPA and DOT and plans to continue to do so.

Then why stir up the pot by telling the world that you’ll create a de facto standard while the EPA is still looking at the engineering studies? If CARB was looking for ways to add to its resume of ill-advised overreaches, it succeeded admirably. If, on the other hand, it wanted to be seen as the lead partner in a national standard, it would have agreed to a joint announcement in the first place. Regardless of where the standards are set, surely even CARB understands that a truly national standard is the single most important achievement to be won in this process. Oh, and “making sure all the evidence was duly reviewed before ruling” should probably be the second most important.

Production of Chevrolet’s Volt was supposed to be limited to 10k units this year, a target GM has already set its sights on surpassing. With 2012 volume projections now reaching 25k units, the next step in The General’s quest to prove that the Volt is a viable vehicle is a staggering goal: doubling its 2013 production target from 60k  to 120k units of production. According to Bloomberg, GM has not officially announced the 120k volume goal and may not build that many Volts in 2013 at all, if energy prices and supplier challenges don’t allow it. And though supplier issues could well leave the goal out of reach, even if GM is able to ramp up production to fulfill its 120k unit goal by next year, there are no signs yet that the market will support those production levels. After all, GM is essentially banking on the kind of volume-to-price niche that BMW has taken years to cultivate with its 3 Series… which starts at prices slightly below the Volt’s $41k, and still moved fewer than 110k units last year.

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The Department of Energy’s $25b Advanced Technology Vehicle Manufacturing Loan program was very nearly used as a slush fund to keep GM and Chrysler afloat during the dangerous days leading up to the federal auto bailout. Though President Bush’s decision to use TARP to rescue America’s failing automakers took away the need to tap the so-called “retooling loan” program to fund America’s auto bailout, that decision also contributed to a long delay in the allocation of the ATVM loans. Because the loans require applicants prove “financial viability,” GM and Chrysler’s requests (which account for $17.4b out of the remaining pool of $16.7b in non-allocated loans) have been on hold, and with them, every other automaker still seeking approval for its requests. And now, with no word from the DOE on the loan program since last April, congress is agitating for the DOE to make with the loans already. Senator Diane Feinstein captures the frustration in a letter published by the Detroit News

“On multiple occasions, the department has missed internal deadlines for initial decisions, term negotiations, final decisions and loan closure,” she wrote, saying the department failed to give applicants “a clear timeline.”

But did the DOE miss deadlines and string automakers along out of negligence, or because it had to wait in order to fulfill the loan program’s mission, namely supporting the bailed-out automakers?

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