Polk’s Tom Libby takes a penetrating look into the obvious and reveals that American luxury car buyers rarely actually buy their cars, reporting:

Industry-wide, leases comprise about a fifth of all new vehicle registrations, but within the luxury market, lease penetration is more than twice as high at 45%. Three premium makes: BMW, Infiniti and Mercedes-Benz, actually have national lease rates at or above 50%…

These extraordinarily high lease results lead to several conclusions. First, the price of the vehicle is not the be-all and end-all. Rather, the monthly lease payment is a crucial factor. The monthly payment is not completely linked to the price, as the OEM and dealer have several tools by which to manipulate the monthly payment; these include, among other things, artificially raising the forecasted residual amount and increasing/decreasing the up-front lease payment. Second, if your premium make is not in the leasing business, you need to get there right away. Lastly, your lease rates, residuals and drive-away costs need to be competitive.

While there’s a lesson about America’s ceaseless desire to live beyond its means in there somewhere, the real lesson here is this: with sales coming out tomorrow, be sure to remember that not all of them are actual sales. Also, this is the reason you never see those “Don’t Laugh, It’s Paid Off” stickers anymore…

Between Consumer Reports’ decision to drop the Honda Civic from its “recommended” list, the poor financial numbers, increased competition from Detroit, Wolfsburg and Korea and the chaos of the tsunami (not to mention the Toyota recall scandal), there are plenty of signs that the land of the rising sun is losing its grip on the US car market. But is the slide inexorable, or can Japan rally to regain its dominance? Here, via Automotive News [sub], is a graphic that projects the product cadence of Japan’s “big three” over model-years 2012-2015… does it give you hope for Japan, or do you see signs of continued struggles?

Fiat’s 500 is a tough vehicle to figure out. On the one hand, it’s got a lot of intangibles going for it: it’s got huge fashion appeal, it gets far better fuel economy than anything in the Chrysler Group’s US stable and it grabs attention like nobody’s business. On the other hand: the sales stink. Chrysler expected to move some 50k Cinquecentos this year, but after three full months of sales (only 500 special editions were sold in March), the 500 had moved fewer than 5,000 units through June (4,944, to be precise). Fiat has admitted that the 500 launch is “a tiny bit behind schedule,” and the first official ad (which I count as another positive intangible) is only just going live this week. It’s miles better than the glorified tourist bureau video that has since disappeared from Youtube, but can it motivate 45,000 hip young (at heart) things to buy into the next small thing? We’ll certainly be watching July sales with interest. But if Fiat doesn’t get the ball rolling towards New Beetle-style iconic status in the US, the 500 could go the way of the Smart: iconic, but for all the wrong reasons (namely a challenging combination of price and size).

AlixPartners, the consulting firm that led GM’s reorganization efforts, has put the perennial optimism of auto industry analysts on notice, introducing its 2011 Automotive Outlook by arguing

The AlixPartners 2011 Automotive Outlook finds that while automakers and suppliers have seen profits bounce back handsomely – North American original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) posted $12.5 billion in 2010 profit on a net margin of 4.6% and North American suppliers reaped $8.2 billion on a net margin of 4.3% – no one should be tempted into thinking that things are now back to “normal,” or at least the normal defined by the consumer-incentive-induced sales levels of the past. In sync with its past annual auto studies, AlixPartners continues to predict that U.S. auto sales will climb slower, and to a lower peak, than many others are predicting. Specifically, the firm estimates U.S. auto sales will reach just 12.7 million units this year and only 13.6 million in 2012.

This is a tough moment for us: on the one hand, pessimistic economic forecasts don’t make anybody happy… on the other hand, the AlixPartner outlook is a significant validation of TTAC’s longtime bearishness. So rather than either moping or self-congratulating, let’s just take a look at why AlixPartners is so gloomy about the near-term outlook.
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Despite the domestic auto industry’s bailout-fueled turnaround, there are a few challenges that the Detroit-based firms have yet to overcome: sales on the West Coast for one, and sales to young people for another. TrueCar tackled the scope of this second issue, digging through millions of transactions to determine the favored cars of both Generation X (ages 28-45) and elderly buyers (65 and up). The results? Buick is still tops with the old folks, despite aiming for younger buyers with new, European-derived products. Lincoln, Cadillac, Chrysler and GMC and Chevrolet round out the top six before the first import brand, Porsche, arrives at number seven. There are few surprises by model choice as well, with the Town Car, Lucerne, DTS, CTS, STS, Azera, Impala, LaCrosse, MKZ and Avalon making the top ten old-folks cars. On the Gen X side of things, import brands still top the list, with VW, Land Rover, Audi, and Mazda taking the top spots, and Jeep taking the top domestic spot at number five. By model, the Routan, M3, Quest, Armada, and Oddyssey take the top five spots for Gen X buyers, with only the Chevy Aveo representing the domestic brands in the top ten. cars with Gen X buyers.

What does it all mean? The domestic manufacturers are still most attractive to traditional, older buyers… spelling long-term issues for the domestic brands. GM, Ford and Chrysler still face huge challenges in attracting younger buyers, and will need to address this problem aggressively  if they want to build on their short-term turnaround.

Ford’s Q2 results [Presentation in PDF here] were mixed, as deliveries and revenue improved (7% and 13% respectively, compared to Q2 2010) but profitability slipped, but the automaker still ended the quarter with $2.4b in profit and $2.3b in operating cash flow. Debt was reduced by $2.6 from the first quarter of this year, and total Automotive debt landed at $14b, while gross Automotive cash landed at $22b. So, what happened to Ford’s operating profit margin?

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Despite a $370m loss, Chrysler’s Q2 and first-half results [presentation in PDF here] were presented in a relatively upbeat tone, as a number of key metrics showed signs of improving. Chrysler’s revenue was up by over $3b in the second quarter compared to last year, EBITDA hit $1.3b, and “modified operating profit” was $507m, or about 3.7% of net revenues. Depreciation and Amortization costs were up slightly, as were income tax and net interest expenses, but the big loss that pushed Chrysler into the red was a $551m one-time charge associated with Chrysler’s payback of government bailout loans. Gross debt was up by about a billion dollars, to $12.287b, but net debt was down by over a billion to $2.1b, and Chrysler sees greatly reduced interest costs going forward, eliminating $2.6b in planned debt payments this year. And though free cash flow slowed considerably compared to Q2 2010 ($174m compared to $491m), Chrysler finished the half with $10.2b, up from $9.9b at the end of the first quarter.

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Over the weekend Bertel reported on some depressing economic news, noting

Suddenly, automakers aren’t so sure anymore about all that pent-up demand that will bring back U.S. car sales back to their old glory… The big recovery has been postponed for a year or more.

But how much pent-up demand is there, really? According to Edmunds’ analysis of 12 Factors To Watch In The Industry’s Second Half, only about half of the sales lost between 2008 and 2010 were not lost forever to used cars, the inability to get credit and the “new austerity.” As a result, they calculate about 4.3m units of demand is “pent up.” But there’s a question of how accurate that estimate is, and beyond that there’s another question: what happens once the pent-up demand has been blown through?

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14 millions Americans are out of work. The government is facing default. U.S. home prices are at their lowest level since 2003, and Robert Shiller, the economist who co- founded the S&P/Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices, said a decline in property values up to 25 percent in the next five years “wouldn’t surprise me at all.” From Bernanke on down, everybody is scaling back the rhetoric that economic growth is just around the corner.  Suddenly, automakers aren’t so sure anymore about all that pent-up demand that will bring back U.S. car sales back to their old glory. Reuters asked around and didn’t come back with good news. Read More >

The internet has been a boon for car buyers in a million ways, but for new car marketers it’s been a decidedly mixed bag. GM’s California-only experiment selling new cars over eBay was quickly abandoned, after generating more embarrassment than sales. Now, another high-ish profile online new car marketing gag has flopped, as Autoweek reports that Groupon’s car debut is going nowhere:

Only four consumers agreed to pay $200 for a $500 discount voucher on a new-vehicle purchase at LaFontaine Buick-GMC-Cadillac in Highland, Mich. Groupon and LaFontaine had set 10 as the minimum required for the vouchers to be issued.

For companies like Tesla, who hope to do without traditional franchised dealers altogether (Chrysler may harbor similar desires), the internet is next great frontier in new car sales… but the eBay and Groupon failures are troubling signs for that dream.

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The word “truth” in our title has long been a cudgel for our critics, who, finding fault with our analysis, condemn us for failing to publish their version of the truth. But, as I’ve steadfastly maintained since taking up TTAC’s editorial reins, we do not hold ourselves up as the sole source of truth. Rather, by provoking an engaging discussion, we hope that our readers will use our posts as a jumping-off point to debate the issue at hand with vigor. The truth, as I find myself saying again and again, is a journey, not a destination.

Accordingly, I’m always thrilled when manufacturers read our pieces and offer up their own counterpoint to the discussion, broadening our understanding of the issue at hand and moving the conversation forward. One of my posts from yesterday, which examined GM’s decision to invest in full-sized truck production in the midst of CAFE negotiations and an inventory backlog, has drawn just such a thoughtful response from GM’s Tom Wilkinson, which is published after the jump. It provides some inside perspective on GM’s decision to move forward with the next generation of full-sized pickups, and is a great example of the kind of conversations that TTAC hopes to start every day.
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[UPDATE: GM responds to this piece here]

With environmentalist groups on the warpath over forthcoming 2017-2025 CAFE standards, trucks sitting on lots, and the Flint HD Pickup plant idled for much of the month, this is probably not exactly the moment GM might have chosen to put $328m into tooling for new full-sized pickups to be built at Flint. But time and the market wait for no company, and because the Silverado is GM’s single best-selling product, the investment isn’t tough to justify:

“Truck sales play an important role in the success of General Motors,” said Joe Ashton, UAW-GM Vice President. “We are confident that the next-generation of trucks will continue to be an important source of revenue for the company and jobs for our members

In case there’s any confusion though, GM is making perfectly sure nobody thinks they’re making any product choices because of union demands. At the investment announcement ceremony at Flint, Cathy Clegg, GM vice president of labor relations told Reuters [via Automotive News [sub]]

We certainly aren’t going to make a decision and make a commitment solely as a way of getting an agreement. If the market doesn’t drive it, we can’t do that

So, how is that truck market?

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UPDATE: Toyota confirms:

Recent reports have incorrectly stated that the 2012 RAV4 EV will only be marketed to fleet and car sharing programs.  We’d like to set the record straight.  The 2012 RAV4 EV will definitely be sold to the general public.  We anticipate robust public interest in the RAV4 EV and are keen to inform consumers that their future vehicle options include a battery electric Toyota.

Toyota is the only manufacturer bringing two battery electric vehicles to the market in 2012 – the RAV4 EV and the Scion iQ EV.  While the RAV4 EV will be available to the public, the Scion iQ EV will be marketed to fleet and car sharing programs only.

A number of major auto outlets got clowned yesterday when a Pike Research blog item seemed to quote Toyota Business Planning Manager of Advanced Vehicle Marketing Geri Yoza as saying the Tesla-developed RAV4 EV would not be sold to private customers, but would distributed to fleets and car sharing services. Not so, it turns out, as Toyota has corrected the Yoza quote by confirming that only the electric version of the iQ city car will definitely not be offered for public sale. But by the time Pike Research got its facts straight, the misinformation had ben regurgitated by the biggest names in car blogging, and had even made its way over to the other side of the Atlantic. The worst part: the real issue brought up in the Pike Research piece was largely lost in the autoblogosphere’s rush to prove Mark Twain’s adage that “a lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes.” And, as usual, the slow-dressing truth is a lot more interesting than the globe-trotting lie…

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As we just noticed, the Volkswagen Group gained 5.7 percent in Europe in the first six months of 2011. But that’s only a small part of the story. Globally, the Volkswagen Group delivered more vehicles in the first six months of 2011 than ever. A total of 4.09 million units changed hands, up 14.1 percent from the 3.58 million delivered in the same period of 2010. This according to a communique sent out by Volkswagen today. For you, dear TTAC reader, this is old news however.  A few days ago, we told you that we “expect group sales to come in at somewhere around 14 percent and change for the half year.” (In more than 30 years working for the company, some of the clairvoyance possessed by VW’s upper management  had rubbed off …) Read More >

European car sales statistics are a little bit like financial news from The Old Country: Up one day, down the next. This is one of those next days. In June, new passenger car registrations dropped by 8.1 percent in the EU to 1,233,298 units. Over the first six months of 2011, a total of 7,120,499 new cars was registered, or 2.1 percent less than in the first half of last year. This according to data provided by the European Manufacturers organization ACEA. Read More >