The rise of the Chinese auto market, which only surpassed the US to become the world’s largest in recent years, has drawn considerable attention from China-watchers and industry insiders alike. China’s rampant sales growth has paid huge dividends for firms who gambled on the Chinese market, in turn spurring more investment as every global automaker scrambles for access to China’s rapidly-developing market. As a result of several years of this gold rush mentality, everyone is now looking for China to stumble, to show the first signs of a bubble ready to burst.And over at Forbes, Handel Jones (the author of Chinamerica: The uneasy partnership that will change the world), thinks he may have found these first signs of slowdown in China’s auto production numbers.
A study of A.T. Kearney Management Consultants (for what such a study is worth) foresees that 13.2 million cars will be sold in the U.S. this year. It could be more, but the consultants reckon that “in the aftermath of the earthquake and tsunami, parts shortages will impact 2011 U.S. new vehicle sales by 200,000 units.” In the disaster, A.T. Kearney sees a golden opportunity: “Given what we know about production downtime, in 2011 we see 328,000 U.S. customers of the affected brands up for grabs, and more if the time to wait for a particular brand begins to extend.” Read More >
If you are looking for a growth market for cars, don’t look to Europe. In terms of car sales, the Old Country is going sideways with a negative bias. In April, sales of new cars in the EU was down 4.1 percent on the year. New registrations amounted to 1,089,118 units. For the first four months of 2011, registrations totaled 4,674,457 units, or 2.7 percent less than over the same period a year earlier. This according to data released by the European Auto Manufacturers Association ACEA.Read More >
Despite being on something of a roll product-wise, Ford has just experienced its second run-in with Consumer Reports, which failed to give Ford’s new Explorer a coveted “recommended” rating. Why? CR explains its decision in Automotive News [sub] thusly
“The engine is a little noisy, handling is secure but lacks agility, and the driving position is flawed,” the magazine says.
“The optional ‘MyFord Touch’ control interface is over-complicated and distracting,” the magazine says, echoing ongoing complaints about Ford’s family of in-vehicle communications systems.
But there’s more.
“The six-speed automatic is not the smoothest out there and wants to hold on to higher gears too long. It was sometimes slow to downshift and overly aggressive engine braking slowed the Explorer going down hills unless we gave the gas pedal a prod.
“An optional Terrain Management system for the all-wheel-drive system lets you dial in various terrain types such as snow and sand, and it alters throttle, brake and torque split between front and rear wheels accordingly.”
Finally, the latest Explorer is too new to be recommended, the magazine says.
But here’s the kicker: as our “Crossover Report” proves, the Explorer killed the competition last month, outselling every other midsized and large CUV on the market. So, is CR right to rate products like Toyota Highlander Hybrid, Ford Flex, Acura MDX, Volkswagen Touareg, Hyundai Veracruz, Subaru Tribeca, Kia Sorento and Mazda CX-9 higher than Explorer? Or is this yet another example of CR’s well-disguised but often-noted bias against American cars? Is CR right about the Explorer, or is the market?
Crossovers, almost by definition, are hell to segment. This month we’ve taken commenter NulloModo‘s suggestion for separating mid- and large CUVs, so please direct all praise and criticism of this month’s segmentation to him. And then, just to piss everyone off (and save time for other, more interesting work) we’ve lumped all the luxury CUVs of every category into one giant, barely-legible chart. Is it perfect? No. But then, neither are crossovers. And like crossovers these charts will get the job done, even if they don’t wow anyone in the process.
BMW’s Dreier continues to be the dominant force in the smaller “mid-luxury” segment, while archrival Mercedes controls the large luxury segment (chart after the jump) with its E Class. But the bigger story? Lexus’s incredible vanishing act, with both the ES and IS drooping under the German onslaught. Cadillac’s CTS beat the Audi A4 sedan, but add the A5 in (as the CTS, 3-Series and G37 all include coupes) and the Caddy drops to fourth place for the month. Ultimately, though, the Mercedes, Audi, Cadillac and Infiniti may switch places month-by-month, but all four are clearly stuck vying for the role of best 3-Series alternative. Meanwhile, the large luxury sedan market would thrill for even that level of competition…
Mazda may be free from its less-than-entirely-successful relationship with Ford, but when it comes to US production, Mazda is still very much stuck in its Ford-dependent past. B-Series pickup production has ended in St Paul, but Tribute is still built alongside Escape in Kansas City (for the moment), and the majority of Mazda’s US production is still accounted for by Mazda6, which is also built alongside Fords at the shared Flat Rock “Auto Alliance” plant. But AutoWeek‘s Hans Greiml reports that the Nikkan Kogyo newspaper believes Mazda could be looking to pull out from Flat Rock.
the Mazda6 is a big reason Mazda can’t turn a regional operating profit in North America–one of its most important markets.
The company planned to produce 100,000 Mazda6 units annually at the Flat Rock, Mich., plant, when the redesigned sedan was launched there in mid-2008. Then the financial crisis hit.
Last year the plant built only 45,168 units.
Mazda is cagey about what options it is mulling. If it quits producing the Mazda6, it could bring in another vehicle–or Mazda could quit the plant completely. Speculation abounds in Japan that Mazda is eyeing a new, lower cost North American production base in Mexico.
With the Tribute going out of production by the end of the year, Flat Rock would be Mazda’s last remaining US production facility. But while moving production from Flat Rock to Mexico might be a solid strategic move, it won’t change the Mazda6’s underperformance in the market. That’s going to take at least a “Mazda-rati” redesign. Hit the jump for a graph of Mazda’s midsized sales performance since 1995.
Our patent pending GM China sales oracle saw it coming: GM China was down in April, therefore, the whole Chinese market had to be down in April. And so it was – by a hair: April new vehicle sales in China were down 0.25 percent, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced at a press conference on Tuesday afternoon. This is the first decline in 27 months. Read More >
The king is dead! After years of dominating the subcompact charts, the Nissan Versa was toppled from its top spot by not one but three upstart nameplates. Kia’s Soul, the Versa’s most consistent competition since it launched, has finally arrived as a legitimate slow-wave hit, topping 10k units and running away with the segment even as an updated model was announced at the NY Auto Show. Fiesta finally came into its own as well, racking up a thoroughly legit 9,147 sales over the month, and the lagging Fit staged something of a comeback with sales rising to 8,116 units. Versa’s fourth place finish was enough to handily beat Chevy’s aged Aveo, which itself nearly slipped below the equally aged Hyundai Accent for the month. Meanwhile, Yaris held off a solid-ish performance by Mazda2 and creamed its Scion xD cousin. With the Versa’s fall from grace (and the Cube’s non-impact) we have what may be an interesting peek at what the segment could look like when Nissan replaces its roomy Versa with its underwhelming Versa (Sunny) sedan. Of course, with new Soul, Aveo (Sonic), Accent and Rio models coming soon, there’s no telling where this segment could end up by the end of this year.
A lot of people are worried that billions of people in China and India will buy cars in droves and use up our gasoline give polar bears a tan. The worry beads can hyperventilate a little easier. India’s April sales are in. And they are outstanding “grew at their slowest pace in nearly two years in April,” reports the Wall Street Journal with a sigh. Read More >
There is one positive aspect to the Japanese tsunami: It seems to lift resale values. Manheim’s Used Vehicle Value Index just rose to another record in April, says Automotive News [sub]. Manheim has been keeping track of used car prices since 1995. Pushed by tighter supplies and higher demand, the index climbed to 126.6 last month, up from 124.2 in March and 120.7 in April 2010. Read More >
The UK new car market fell by 7.4 percent to 137,746 units. This was the 10th successive monthly decline in volumes and the UK’s Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) that keeps track of those things thinks its just cushty. Read More >
I’ve expanded most of our segments slightly this month to include some vehicles that either sell poorly enough to usually drop off our charts, or don’t quite fit into any one segment. For example, the Juke’s widened-Versa platform means it should probably be in a class lower than this one, but it’s selling well enough to earn a spot here, and doesn’t have enough direct competition for a “Crossunder” chart anyway. In any case, the Compact CUV segment is turning into something of a two-car battle between the CR-V and Escape after the close battles of the 2009-2010 period. And with a redesigned CR-V set to debut this year, Honda should pull away here… but that new Cute Ute has been delayed and supply interruptions are coming down the line, all thanks to the Japanese tsunami situation. Which means Ford’s old soldier, the Escape, will continue its unlikely prominence in a segment packed with newer, fancier options. But with a very different next-gen Escape coming down the line, Ford is taking a step into the unknown rather than building on the Escape’s SUV-lite positioning. So even though this chart doesn’t necessarily reflect it, this segment is actually fairly wide open. Game on!
The established Accord/Camry duopoly on the Midsized segment wasn’t in any serious trouble this month, but as tsunami-related shortages hit Honda, Toyota and Nissan, things could be in flux. In fact, the big story for April seems to be the relaxing of demand for Fusion and Altima, which still occupy a distinct second tier behind Accord/Camry in the Year-To-Date race. Behind those four, the Sonata and Malibu are neck-in-neck in the YTD standings, with the fleet-happy Impala (easy there Bias Police, AN [sub] reports that “In March, about 75 percent of Impala sales went to fleets and rental-car companies”) and the supply-constrained Prius trailing the pack. And then there’s everyone else. Chrysler Group’s midsizers are improving their sales, Legacy is in a holding patter, Maxima is showing its age and the Mazda6… well, that’s just a sad story, isn’t it? NB: VW did not sell a single Passat last month. Passat CC numbers will be in our weird mash-up segment of large/premium sedans.
Recent Comments