With all the excitement brewing in the Compact segment, some may be ignoring a building problem at the other end of the market, in the full-sized truck segment. Automotive News [sub] reports that GM’s truck inventory currently stands at 111 days of surprise, or a whopping 275,000 trucks sitting on lots. In April, Silverado was more than 3,000 units off the previous month’s pace, while Sierra was just over 1,00 units off. GM’s US market boss Mark Reuss tells the industry paper

We’re going to do something about it, but we haven’t made those calls yet… no one month makes a trend, so we’ve got to see where this one holds

Meanwhile, we’d be more worried about Chrysler, which saw Ram sales drop from nearly 22k units in March to 17,680 units in April. And not only is Chrysler more dependent on truck profits than GM due to its tighter balance sheet, it also has fewer high-efficiency alternatives to offer consumers who seem to be slowly responding to rising gas prices and moving towards more efficient offerings. And given that Automotive News [sub] is already noting that Chrysler has fallen behind on its “ambitious” sales goal and quoting analysts bemoaning Chrysler’s “perception” issues, it seems that Auburn Hills should be trying to get ahead of the story the way GM is.

In the comments section of Monday’s Honda Civic review, there was something of a rush to declare a new order in the hotly-contested Compact segment, with Honda notably losing out. Well, TTAC and its Best and Brightest tend to be a little ahead of their time, and the sales numbers for April prove that the Civic still attracts US car buyers in segment-leading numbers. But the monthly sales win was probably something of a bittersweet victory, as Honda dealers hunker down for what is likely to be months of tsunami-related supply interruptions. Meanwhile, the battle is getting feisty, with Hyundai and Chevy doing most of the disruption. Year-to-date, however, the Civic and Corolla are still maintaining their decades-long grasp on the compact segment. But then, the battle is only just beginning…

So, sales are up… but what are the automakers spending in order to get those sales? And what are they getting for their cars? Step inside our incentives and transaction price tracking center for a look at the factors that play affect how sales turn into profits (or don’t). But first, take a look at the graph above showing US-market incentive spending broken out by the regions where automakers are based. As usual, the US-based OEMs put more cash on the hood than their competitors, but more importantly notice how much money is spent on sales each month: nearly $2.5b was spent last month. And despite being a serious chunk of change, Edmunds AutoObserver says that’s the lowest overall level of incentive spending since 2005. So if you’re inclined to ignore incentives when it comes to your monthly sales education, you might want to start paying some attention…

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A lot has changed in the auto industry in the three years since I started writing here at TTAC, and one of the more heartening developments has been the move towards ever greater transparency for all kinds of data, from sales breakouts to incentives to sales-weighted fuel economy. Though I’d like to think that TTAC played a role in helping push towards greater transparency and disclosure, the real heroes of this story are Hyundai (which has begun to release its sales-weighted fuel economy each month and is moving towards quarterly fleet sales breakouts) and TrueCar, which has possibly done more to put information in the hands of auto consumers than anyone else (TTAC included). TTAC thanks everyone who is helping push the industry towards ever more disclosure, and invites you to take advantage of these newly-available data points in order to better understand the ever-evolving face of the US auto industry. Here we present TrueCar’s TrueMPG data for April, which shows a .2 MPG improvement across the industry since April 2010.

It might still be a bit early to put a sub-head on this month’s sales, but if GM can serve as Bertel’s China car sales oracle, perhaps they’ll indicate the US market as well. And if they do, we’ll be seeing strong year-over-year sales increases, with much of the new volume coming from compact cars, while large trucks sit flat. If GM doesn’t indicate the market well this month, then we’ll be sure to update our headline when we update the developing sales table which you can find just after the jump.

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How many Civics could a Honda make, if a Honda could make Civics? Here’s a hint: “half as many” would be too optimistic a guess. Honda has warned its dealers to expect “severe shortages” in supply of the new 2012 model, and virtually every other Honda model will have the same availability issues until later this year. Toyota’s in the same boat.

What does this mean for TTACers who want to buy a Japanese-brand car?

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As TTAC explained last November, the EcoBoost engine might be the best argument for the Lincoln brand, as MKS and MKT enjoyed 30% and 46% Ecoboost take rates respectively, while Taurus and Flex convinced only 14.2% and 11%of their buyers respectively to plump for the turbocharged engine. So, what do you think the take rate was for the Ecoboost engine in the F-150? You know, the one which gets good fuel economy (unless you’re towing a lot), but has to fight for recognition amid a crowd of options? Well? Write down your answer and hit the jump…

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Surveys of auto executives and analysts by Bloomberg and Reuters show that the US Seasonally Adjusted Annual Selling Rate (SAAR) hit 13m units last month, a 16 percent increase compared to April 2010. And though the market is up significantly from last year, it’s looking like April’s sales will be basically flat from last month. But the effects of the Japanese quake and tsunami are only just beginning to be felt in the US market…

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Saab’s got a new short-term lease on life, as Automotive News Europe [sub] reports that the Swedish brand has secured a €30m, six-month convertible loan from Gemini Investment Fund. Saab is also requesting a €29.1 drawdown of its EIB loan, and when that is approved next week, Saab will reach the €59.1m in liquidity it needs to restart production. According to another piece by Automotive News [sub], Saab is still in talks with the Chinese automakers Great Wall Motor Co., China Youngman Automobile Group Co. and Jiangsu Yueda Group Co. in hopes of securing an additional investment in the struggling Swedish automaker, as well as a joint venture for Chinese production of the next-generation 9-3, and a possible Chinese market distribution deal.

Meanwhile, Saabsunited reports that several companies have been told to stop development on that next-gen 9-3 while the company gets back on its feet, meaning it could be delayed into the 2013 timeframe. And while Saab sacrifices long-term development for short-term survival, the recent production shutdown is taking its toll: Swedish sales of the 9-3 are up, but the new 9-5 is falling off (128 sold last month) as stocks dry up. The drama continues…

Forecasts for April U.S. new vehicle sales differ widely amongst the industry soothsayers this month. Read More >

Speaking at the New York Auto Show today, GM CEO Dan Akerson defended his inconsistent approach to sales incentives, telling the AP [via The Washington Examiner]

I feel pretty good about that. I think we’re in pretty good shape. I don’t want to be a predictable competitor. I don’t want the other guy to know exactly what I’m doing.

For some context,

GM surprised the industry — and Wall Street — when it raised discounts by $400 per vehicle in January and February. Most automakers didn’t raise them because demand for new vehicles has been rising in line with supply…

GM pulled back on its incentives in March, spending $600 to $800 per vehicle less on the deals. But it was too late for some investors, who shied away from the company’s stock because higher rebates lower car companies’ profits.

But does Akerson’s upside, the element of surprise, outweigh the downsides of his hot-cold incentive strategy?

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You can just about kiss those worries about a US price war goodbye, as GM has become the third major automaker to raise its US market MSRPs in April alone. Like Toyota and Ford before it, GM is raising its prices by about $100 per vehicle ($123 on average) in response not to Japanese parts shortages, but steadily increasing raw material costs. According to the WSJ, the price increase takes effect starting on May 2. And, TrueCar’s Jesse Toprak tells Fox,

The advice would be, based on what we see today, we don’t see any kind of ease in price anytime soon. The prices of everything will go up, moving forward.

Now all GM needs to do is start easing off its incentives so that those MSRPs actually mean something.

Checking dealer transactions for the first half of April, Edmunds sees cars selling at a fast clip. Dealers are all smiles: Average prices are going up, cars are flying off the lot, and the “average days to turn”  – industry speak for the time the dealer sits on a car until it moves – fell more than 10 percent since the beginning of April, from 58 days to 52. If the rest of April behaves similarly, Edmunds sees a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 14.1 million in April. Party time. The festivities could be premature, Edmunds warns. Read More >

Ask an industry-watcher to name an automaker that seems to be doing things right, and chances are one of the top choices would be Ford Motor Company. And though Ford is enjoying favorable perceptions in the media, according to the company’s own internal goals, it’s actually underperforming. And in a key metric, no less: retail market share. Bloomerg reports: Read More >

Retail market share is one of those metrics that tends to cut through the vagueness of pure sales-volume numbers, reflecting an automaker’s performance compared to the competition, without the distraction of fleet sales. It’s not a perfect measure of a business’s overall strength, as fleet sales can help with economies of scale and capacity utilization, but it’s one of the most accurate ways to measure the appeal of a firm’s products with real consumers. And, based on this chart of GM’s monthly retail market share (as calculated by TrueCar VP for Industry Analysis and all-round data ninja Jesse Toprak), GM’s much-vaunted Lutz-era products aren’t moving the needle with those real consumers. Emerging from bankruptcy didn’t seem to provide much of boost either. And unless drastic happens soon, GM’s battle for consumer acceptance will continue its slow but steady decline. Not good!

Hit the jump for raw data and a historical chart of GM’s non-retail market share.

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