The [literally] rivet counting debate over whether or not one should include the Scion brand in Toyota's sales totals– to determine whether or not Toyota's overtaken Ford as America's top automotive brand– seems to have sailed straight over the media's head. In the hangover morning after December's dismal new car sales results, the mainstream press has pronounced Toyota the new champ. The news ain't all good for ToMoCo. Reality has forced them to rein-in their previous '08 throw-down, where they predicted a three percent sales growth for '08. The Wall Street Journal reports that company spokesman Irv Miller told some industry types that a "confluence of factors," including a widespread credit crunch, high gasoline prices, a housing downturn and "critically fragile consumer confidence" has forced his employer to revise the number downwards. The Japanese automaker says it's now looking at a one to two percent gain for the year. Echoing GM's spinmeisters, contradicting most every gainfully employed financial analyst, Miller reckons sales will rebound in the second half of '08. Meanwhile, the Houston Chronicle says sales of Toyota's Texas-built Tundra fell short of the company's 200k target by 3,445 trucks. "Like the rest of the industry, the full-size pickup segment saw its fair share of challenges in 2007," said Toyota brand manager Bob Carter. Hell boy, you ain't seen nothin' yet. 

There's more than a little fact-glossing in a USA Today article on disappearing domestic-tied car dealers. "Having shuttered factories and eliminated hundreds of thousands of automaking jobs, Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM) and Chrysler are now turning their attention to weeding out weaker dealers in bigger metro markets. They make fewer vehicles, so they don't need as many places to sell them." Translation: "weeding out weaker dealers" = paying off some of their dealers before the franchisees starve to death. "They make fewer vehicles" = losing market share like an hourglass loses sand. Although it's a tough job making people feel sorry for a car dealer, Chris Woodyard's tale of Keystone Ford's terminal illness gits 'er done– without dwelling overmuch on Detroit's culpability. Thankfully, there's some good old fashioned hard news here: the paper's [unattributed] Big 2.8 domestic dealer tally. "GM has reduced its dealerships by 229 to 6,807 in the past year; Ford had shrunk by 139 to fewer than 4,140 as of July; and Chrysler had eliminated 142 to 3,607 as of October." Compared to Toyota's roughly 1500-store U.S. dealer network, Detroit's numbers indicate Motown's still wearing a bloated albatross around its neck. So to speak. 

As if anyone who's been semi-conscious for the past six months couldn't see it coming, Bloomberg predicts December's auto sales numbers will close the year on a sour note. Based on their survey of six industry analysts, they estimate deliveries were down by 5.6 percent at GM, 7.8 percent at Ford and 7.9 percent at Chrysler. They expect smaller declines from the transplants. Americans bought an estimated 16.1 million cars and light trucks last year which is the lowest since 1998. Analysts across the board are predicting an even worse year in 2008. We'll see how far off Bloomberg's stats are when the overall sales figures are released tomorrow. Look out for TTAC's wrap-up on 2007 sales via the specific models we've been tracking. 

I don't pretend the understand the reasoning behind the NAACP's (National Association for the Advancement of Colored People) decision to fight Cincinnati's plans to install red light cameras. According to the Enquirer, "Several NAACP members Thursday said they don’t like the idea of the cameras because it would infringe on their civil rights." And they kind of, you know, hinted that prospective camera placement might be racially biased: "NAACP member Elizabeth Sanford said she thinks the cameras may unfairly target some neighborhoods more than others." But hey, the NAACP will certainly earn some brownie points for this campaign. Given the cameras' dubious safety benefits, their Big Brother implications, and the fact that East Cleveland and Steubenville have punted their town's dreams of red light camera revenue, the NAACP's petition is likely to succeed. As thenewspaper reports, the NAACP will thusly thwart the Cincinnati City Council's cunning plan to end-run Mayor Charlie Luken's red light camera veto by slipping the measure into their annual budget. Anything for a buck, eh?  

As we've reported several times, GM just can't seem to make up its mind about whether or not its next gen Chevrolet Impala will be front or rear wheel-drive. In the last episode our Forbes interview blog (thanks Jer!), we find GM's Car Czar in a bit of drivetrain quandary. Again. Still. Maybe. "'My personal preference is large, rear-wheel-drive cars,' says Lutz. 'My business preference is doing what is right for the shareholder and the public, in light of upcoming regulation on fuel economy. If there's a mile or two difference in fuel economy, you go for the one with the better economy. That's where the internal debate [on the Impala] is now– no firm decision at this point, but my guess is that we will come down on the side of the front-drive car.'" And while an anxious nation awaits an answer, Forbes' elder statesman predicts GM will gain market share in '08, thanks to an improving rep and a strong dollar (never mind all those transplants' U.S. factories, I guess). On this point, Maximum Bob is uncharacteristically sanguine/realistic– for a moment. "If we have a weak market and high fuel prices, people may buy more cars instead of trucks. Our mix is nearly 70% trucks, so if trucks tank fast enough, that takes our share down… If you look to our position against the competition, we're in the best space we've been in years. So you could well be right about our market share." I say nothing.

Automotive News [AN] reports that GM's recent cutbacks in pickup truck production weren't deep enough. While Ford, Dodge and Nissan dealers are all sitting on a relatively health supply of full-size pickups– 100, 120 and 105 days respectively– GM's inventory channel is stuffed to the gills. "As of Dec. 1, inventories of the Chevrolet Silverado (153 days supply) and GMC Sierra (150 days) were bloated despite $5,000 rebates on 2007 models." The automaker's desperation to move the moribund metal is showing-up at the sharp end. "Ken Fichtner, owner of Fichtner Chevrolet in Laurel, Mont., says he took an additional 10 Silverados last month, at GM's request. This month GM asked him to take an additional 20 trucks, and he said no. 'I am sitting on a 13-month supply right now," Fichtner says. 'They wanted me to go to an 18-month supply but we only sell 10 a month, and I'm in the heart of truck country!'" As Frank Williams predicted back in April, there's only one way this is gonna go: GM will have to put massive incentives on its pickups, dinging residual values and further eroding the profits delivered by GM's former cash cows. And THEN cut production even more.   

Back when Toyota first toppled GM from the worldwide sales charts, The General's General dismissed the historic milestone as no biggie. When the markets growled at Rick Wagoner's ho-hummer, the American CEO eventually declared his intention to defend the company's honor. While it's down to the wire for '07, Toyota is already announcing its intention to snag the sales title in the New Year. According to The New York Times, ToMoCo plans to sell 9.85m vehicles worldwide in 2008. In fact, despite a U.S. economic downturn, Toyota is set to increase American sales by one percent.  So what does the 76-year worldwide sales champ have to say about its own plans for world domination? Nothing. "G.M. has not given a forecast for the number of vehicles it expects to produce or sell in 2008." Just in case you missed the contrast in corporate cultures, Credit Suisse auto analyst Koji Endo reminds us that “These are targets Toyota is giving, not forecasts, and so they are reasonable." Oh, and Toyota also says it will begin mass-producing lithium-ion batteries for its low-emission vehicles in '09. And so it goes.

Automotive News [AN, sub] reports that The Big 2.8 are responding to the general downturn in the U.S. new car market by slashing first quarter production– and beyond! CSM Worldwide says Chrysler will cut factory output by 15 percent, GM will cut production by 10.6 percent and Ford will cut trim throughput by seven percent. Models set for cutbacks include GM's [supposedly] hot selling Lambda crossovers (including the vaunted Buick Enclave), Dodge pickups, Jeep Grand Cherokee and Commander. Once again, the spinmeisters are blaming the downsizing on their determination to wean themselves off fleet sales. Chrysler CEO Boot'em Bob Nardelli has promised to trim fleet sales from 30 (yes 30) percent down to (just) 20 percent. Meanwhile, the transplants are preparing plans to boost production. And that means Toyota and Honda are about to grab yet more market share from Detroit. "Toyota President Jim Lentz said the company expects to boost U.S. sales 3 percent next year. If industry sales reach 15.6 million units in 2008, Toyota's market share would rise to 17.4 percent… Honda continues to gain share, too. Last week, American Honda Motor Co. President Tetsuo Iwamura told reporters the company expects to boost U.S. vehicle sales 2.5 percent. Assuming industry sales of 15.6 million units, Honda's market share would rise to 10.2 percent." And so it goes.

We've wondered about this for a long, long time: who's going to own America's internet-savvy car customers? It's a three-way race between carmakers, dealers and independent websites, all vying to provide the best automotive information in the most attractive form, and then leverage their e-relationship for long-term customer loyalty. Not a lot has happened on the CRM (customer relations management) front; when was the last/first time you received a well-targeted email from any member of this troika? Meanwhile, Peter Krasilovsky says the various players are successful at different stages of the car buying (what about owning?) process. "It's not winner takes all," the program director for The Kelsey Group tells Marketing Daily. "I think there is a realization that OEMs [Original Equipment Manufacturers] are not going to dominate the market. There is a realization that some people will go to the manufacturers' sites, and then there's a person who wants to shop different vehicles, and there are people who want to be part of the car universe and not just when they are buying a car." To increase their e-appeal, dealers are adding appointment-making capabilities to their websites and "increasingly doing e-mail offers with coupons for services, even newsletters." Is that the sound of the "junk" button I'm hearing? The battle continues. 

In 1997, U.S. automakers relinquished the title of "best-selling car in America" to the Japanese brands– and never got it back. Now another market segment is on the verge of falling to the transplants. CNNMoney reports that unless Chrysler can rev-up sales of the Dodge Caravan, it will surrender its long-held position as America's most popular minivan to the Honda Odyssey. At the end of November, the Odyssey was about 3.5K units ahead of Caravan. If the current sales trend continues through December, it'll finish the year as sales champ. Chrysler explains the loss to the changeover to the new version this year. Oh, and reduced fleet sales. And that the minivan market is dwindling overall. Whatever the reason, rest assured they'll do everything they can to hang onto the "most popular minivan" title– even if they have to pile on incentives and dump inventory into the fleet market. And it still might not be enough.

What's with Bloomberg (and The Detroit News for carrying this story)? As GM prepares to unleash the imported Saturn Astra on the American hinterland [see: TTAC review], the financial news organization suggests that the model could be built stateside. Ostensibly, this is not new news. Unlike the case of the Australian Pontiac G8, GM has not backed away from its plan to test the American waters with the Astra, and then decide if sales volumes justify re-planting production in an American (Mexican?) plant. And in fact, it's not new news either. "We have to look at the volume and what prices are realistic," said Hans Demant, who heads GM's Adam Opel division, at a Handelsblatt automotive conference Tuesday in Frankfurt." So, is Bloomberg/Detroit News shilling for GM? (Perish the thought.) If there's anything else to be gleaned from this "news" report, it's that Demant put a number to the "let's do it stateside!" threshold: 250k U.S. Astras per annum. That would be 4807 per week, or 119 per day (with no time off for holidays). What are the chances?

India's new car market is red hot. GM's Spark is not. As the Business Standard reports, "In the seven months between April and October this year, the Chevy Spark has managed to sell less than 12,000 units, or an average of 1,700 units a month, while its peers Alto and WagonR (Maruti Suzuki), Indica (Tata Motors) and Santro (Hyundai) have had average monthly sales of 10,000 – 18,000 units." Apparently, the Spark– a rebadged Daewoo Matiz– is a victim of GM's inability to move decisively (who'd a thunk?). Before GM took control of Daewoo in '01, the Daewoo Matiz– badged the Daewoo Matiz– had been India's best-selling car. Post-sale, The General dicked around trying to buy Daewoo’s assets in Surajpur, Uttar Pradesh. The deal went nowhere, leading to a five-year delay before the Spark's launch. And if that doesn't sound familiar (Camaro fans), how about this: "For 10 days in October, as a festival season offer, GM offered a massive discount of Rs 53,000 on the six-month old model, which got bookings for 12,000 units." Only capacity constraints at the Halol plant in Gujarat make timely delivery impossible. Never mind. GM's got big plans for the future, introducing six new Chevys from their Halol plant (85k capacity) and bringing its Talegaon plant (1.5m capacity) on-stream. 

While there's not much joy in Motown, new car sales are hopping in The People's Republic of China. Chinadaily reports new car sales are up 22.83 percent this year, for a total of 5.66m units year-to-date (YTD). Sedans are the biggest seller, with 4.24m units sold so far this year. MPVs accounted for 203k sales, while SUVs clocked-in at 319k units. The best-selling models are the Jetta (FAW-Volkswagen), Santana (Shanghai Volkswagen), Buick Excelle (Shanghai General Motors), Camry (Guangzhou Honda), QQ (Chery) and Xiali (FAW Tianjin). For comparison, the U.S. car industry racked-up 7.2m cars and 7.5m light trucks YTD. That said, U.S. "light trucks" include MPVs and SUVs, which are counted as passenger cars in China. The rest of the vehicles sold as light trucks in the U.S. are sold predominately for commercial purposes in China, and aren't included in "new car" sales numbers. So now you know.

The Financial Times reports that Toyota sliced production of its full-sized pickup by 29 percent last month, trimming November's output to 18,300 vehicles. Quite how that recently revealed factoid reconciles with last week's statement by ToMoCo's U.S. group vice president and general manager that the automaker had a good shot at meeting its 200k per year Tundra sales target is anyone's guess. I'm thinking Bob Carter's boast was a triumph of hype-fueled expectation over hard reality. And the hard reality is that the U.S. pickup truck market has tanked. Automotive News (AN, sub) reports that flatbed sales fell fat by 10.4 percent last month. To try to maintain the big Mo on the Texas-built Tundra, Toyota is hawking zero-percent financing or $2k cash rebates on the '08 model. In any case, as a non-union operator, winding down production doesn't put a major ding in Toyota's operating expenses. And there's LOADS of profit in the vehicles they do sell. 

As GM and Ford entered '07, they swore on a stack of Kelly blue books that they were getting out of the business of churning out hundreds of thousands of crap cars for rental fleets and other bulk buyers. Every month, the domestics blamed their lowered market share and declining sales on this brave decision to turn their backs on churn and burn. Meanwhile, Chrysler did anything and everything to move the damn metal. Prior to the Daimler divorce, the automaker practiced epic channel stuffing (a.k.a. sending cars to dealers and abandoned airfields). And now it can be revealed that Chrysler is picking-up its Motown competitors' fleet slack on a similar scale. Last month, Chrysler told the world its sales had fallen by just 2.1 percent– a victory of sorts in a U.S. market that declined by around three percent. Yes but– CNN reports that Chrysler sent its dealers an internal memo revealing that retail sales fell by 16.5 percent. "In early October, when Chrysler reported its September sales results, U.S. sales chief Darryl Jackson noted that fleet sales were trending down more than 20% and that the decline was 'in line with our plan to reduce daily rental fleet during the second half of the year.'" Well, so much for that, then. In related news, we hear that Ford's honoring its pledge to cut back on fleet sales by giving the job to Mazda, accounting for the lion's share of their Japanese "partner's" reported growth.