We turn to BusinessWeek (BW) for the skinny on J.D. Power and Associates' just-released 2007 Customer Retention Study (you can get the straight dope from J.D.'s press release here). Once again, Toyota tops the chart, followed closely by Lexus (63.0 percent) and Honda (62.8 percent). Three Detroit brands land in the top ten. Chevrolet takes the fifth slot (56.8 percent), Ford comes in seventh (52.9 percent) and Cadillac takes eighth (52.8 percent). Discounting MINI (not on the radar long enough to rank) and Isuzu (who?), Scion, Pontiac and Jaguar have the hardest time keeping customers; re-upping 30.8, 27.8 and 24.5 percent respectively. Although (or perhaps because) Mercedes scooped sixth at 52.6 percent, BW's boffins reckon it's not all about the product. "Marketing analysts say a solid record of quality and reliability combined with clarity and consistency of advertising keeps customers coming back. 'There are still many companies that do not understand that consistency of image over time is as important as making sure the quality is up to snuff and the dealers are doing their jobs properly,' says independent marketing consultant Dennis Keene, who advises companies on long-term brand strategy.

When Toyota unveiled their all-new, supersized Tundra pickup, they confidently predicted/promised that the model would hit 200k sales in its first years. Despite some early teething troubles (e.g. underestimating demand for the iForce 5.7-liter V8 engine), strong competition (e.g. GM's determination to discount its Silverado and Sierra to thwart the competition) and economic headwinds (i.e. a contracting housing market and rising gas prics), Toyota execs reckon they just might meet the target. Admitting that "It's going to be close," ToMoCo's U.S. group vice president and general manager laid out the results of regional battles “We’re seeing record market share on the West Coast and good growth elsewhere, particularly in the Midwest,” Bob Carter told WardsAuto. “Tundra has maintained leadership in California and has gained leadership in the Pacific Northwest.” Sales of the Texas-made Toyota climbed by 43.2 percent in November (compared to sales of last year's outgoing model). Although Ward's forgets to mention it (doh!), Toyota sold 177,336 Tundras YTD. That leaves them with 22,664 Tundras to go.

The station wagon is dead. Or not. It all depends on who you ask. Citing the Dodge Magnum and Malibu Maxx (?) as examples, MSNBC proclaims the "wagon wave, alas, crashed ashore against the hard rocks of reality and is now receding." They predict CUVs will put the final nail in the Family Truckster's coffin. What about companies like Volvo and Subaru who are still making a decent living selling station wagons? Well, they sell because of the brand, not the body style: "the remaining wagon buyers tend to be those companies' customers."

On the other hand, Brandweek is predicting a station wagon renaissance. They base their assertion on wagons coming from from BMW, Volvo and VW in the next year. However, as they point out, manufacturers are going to great extremes to avoid "the 'W' word." Interestingly (and probably more accurately) they classify CUVs like the Subaru Forrester and Volvo XC70 as station wagons. Taken that way, station wagon sales are on the upswing, and probably will continue to grow in popularity. 

The New York Times reports that GM's November sales fell 10.9 percent compared to last year, with every one of their eight U.S. brands reporting diminished turnover. Chrysler and Ford fared better– a 2.1 percent drop and a 1.3 percent gain respectively– but it's highly likely that both companies turned to low-profit fleet and commercial sales to prop-up their American business. Worse still, U.S. new car sales in general only dipped by three percent, indicating that the domestic automakers continue to lose market share to their transplant rivals. "All three major Japanese automakers not only increased sales during November, but all reported their highest sales ever for the month… For the second time this year, Detroit accounted for less than half of the United States market." Both GM and Ford attempted to calm camp followers by announcing more production cuts. The General said it will build 950k vehicles from January through March, representing an 11 percent drop from last year's total. Ford will build 685k vehicles in the first financial quarter, reflecting a seven percent decline. Privately held Chrysler remained shtum, but analysts expect it to follow suit. The cut backs are as we predicted: a tail-chasing exercise that spirals Detroit towards disaster. Only better product can save Detroit, and it may already be too late. 

Automotive News [AN, sub] reports that Chrysler and GM are piling on the incentives in the hopes of clearing out lingering '07's and maintaining '08 sales and market share in the run up to the New Year. Dodge buyers signing-up for the 2008 Ram scoop $5k off sticker. The Dodge Ram 2500, Ram 3500, Durango, Charger and Magnum; Chrysler 300C, and Jeep Commander and Grand Cherokee carry incentives ranging from $3k to $3500. GM dealers may not have as much cash on the hood, but thirty-one models– including 20 trucks– tempt seasonal buyers with $500 to $2k off msrp. Caddy hopes to clear out its '07's by offering [both] XLR buyers $7,500, stumping-up $5k for DTS intenders, deflossing the Escalade's price tag by $4,500 and tempting aspiring CTS and STS drivers with $4k. GM biggest losers are the "classic" (i.e. '06) Silverado and Sierras, clocking-in with a $5k discount. Elsewhere, Subaru's '07 B9 Tribeca sheds $3500k, Suzuki's '07 XL7 trims $2500 and Volvo's XC90 can be had for $5k off. Meanwhile, Toyota has dialed back on Tundra incentives, offering just $1500 off the new Texas-built pickup. But its old Tundra and its SUVs all get $4k off. Although most of these incentives are scheduled to expire in January, what's the bet they wont'?

There's some good news from Chrysler for all those pisotnheads who prefer old-fashioned horsepower to silly things like low CO2 emissions. In the past, the Hemi's V8 alternative was really only hanging around to provide genuine torque for a lot less dough: 290 ft-lbs. of twist to be specific. Unfortunately, the 4.7-liter mill's horsepower clocked in at a relatively puny 235. The combo was best suited to Jeep Grand Cherokee and Dodge Dakota owners pottering over hill and dale, towing lifestyle gear and little else. And so Chrysler, post-35 by 2020 Energy Bill, have upgraded the 4.7 liter V8 from ground chuck meat to New York strip steak. For the 2008 model year, the 4.7's horsepower has been raised by 70 fillies, rising to 300hp. Torque takes a nice little jump as well, ascending to 330 ft.-lbs. Since the improvements come from mechanical features borrowed from the 5.7 liter Hemi, Mopar fans are taking to calling the new 4.7 the "Semi-Hemi." Since neither of them has hemispherical combustion chambers, no harm, no blasphemy. No word on the effect on mpgs, but Chrysler's revamped MDS (multi-displacement system) should make it seem frugal enough. Bottom line: Chrysler's got a nice V8 to to slot into the majority of its vehicles as a genuine alternative to Hemi power. Now all they need is a midsize car, a compact car, an interior makeover for the Charger and 300, and some profits.

As discussed here yesterday, America's used car market is booming. One segment that's particularly (and surprisingly) strong: full-sized SUVs. BusinessWeek reports the residual value of large SUVs is up almost three percent over last year. The fuel-sucking lumbering behemoths' resale values are now on a par with midsize cars and small SUVs. According to Ricky Beggs of the Black Book vehicle pricing guide, owners who dumped their large SUVs have discovered that smaller, less capable CUVs don't offer much better overall gas mileage or provide the utility of their former rides. Instead of buying new again, they're opting for used and Certified Pre-Owned vehicles, which offset the slight difference in operating costs. Overall, sales of gargantuan SUVs are still well down from last century's heyday, but don't count them out just yet. Not as long as there are boats to pull, kids to schlep and MINIs to intimidate.

"The new Chevrolet Malibu has topped General Motors Corp's sales expectations in its debut month on the market by a wide margin, a senior GM executive told Reuters." Ironically enough given his moniker, this piece of good news arrived courtesy Maximum Bob Lutz. GM's Car Czar revealed that the artist formerly known as the world's largest automaker blew-out its 500-car sales target for the new 'Bu by 2500 units. While the numbers call into question (again) the wisdom of launching a $150m ad campaign for a new car without any "boots on the ground," why that's 300 percent better than [GM's] expectations! Bob reckons this is good news because "most Chevrolet dealers do not have a car because they're selling as fast as they get them." Or, alternatively, GM didn't make enough. And speaking of bad planning… "Lutz said GM had misjudged the relative demand for two new crossover utility vehicles built on the same platform: the Buick Enclave and the Saturn Outlook. 'It just shows you how the best laid plans go awry,' Lutz said. More specifically, "The Saturn Outlook has been a little slower than we expected. I think that's partly because there aren't enough Saturn dealers, and secondly, there isn't the brand awareness for Saturn." Not enough Saturn dealers? Wow.

Nissan's freshly-minted North American sales chief reckons it's time to address the English patient in the automaker's model line: the Sentra. Mark McNabb tells Wardsauto that he's trying to figure out why, why dear lord, Sentra's sales are on a slippery slope to nowhere. And no wonder; year-to-date sales of the refreshed model are down 10.9 percent to 91,463 units. Helpfully enough, Wards' suggest that the Sentra falls between two stools (so to speak). They report that U.S. compact car sales (e.g. Nissan Sentra) are down 4.3 percent, while sub-compact sales (e.g. Nissan Versa) have increased by a whopping 37.3 percent. Is the Versa– up 364.3 percent in the first 10 months to 67,688 units– cannibalizing the Sentra? McNabb doesn't know and doesn't really seem to care. "He says his first priority with the Sentra will be 'to make sure dealers are engaged with the vehicle.'" Nissan dealers actively await McNabb's wedding plans. “There’s a big market here for that car," says Walter Dolan, senior sales consultant at Pinnacle Nissan in Scottsdale, AZ. "But we’re not seeing a lot of support behind the car coming out of Nissan." Rsponding to the crticism, McNabb promises to see “if there’s something [in Sentra advertising] we can tweak to get the car going a little bit stronger.” Anyway, it may be a big problem, but it's not a major concern. “It’s definitely, from a profit standpoint, not that bad,” McNabb said. Definitely. 

Even though their sales are down 5.7 percent this year, Maximum Bob Lutz told Reuters that GM is doing doing just fine. At the Reuters Autos Summit in Detroit yesterday, the septuagenarian Car Czar revealed "We are looking at the numbers for November and we are making our numbers." Even though he didn't say what those numbers are, he did share the secret of their success: "Some days we are a little behind, some days we are a little ahead and some days we are lots ahead, so on balance to me it looks like we are making track." Uh, except for the days they're lots behind.  Anyway, although several industry experts speaking at the summit predicted worse sales next year, Maximum Bob says it won't happen. Or it will. "Next year (will) possibly dip in the first half and then come out of it in the second half of the year so that overall 2008 could be a tiny bit worse than 2007 or a tiny bit better." It must be encouraging for the stockholders to know the top executives in the company have such a firm grasp of the obvious.

To be fair, every automaker and their mother is running some kind of year-end sale in the U.S. market; offering incentives, cash-back, discounts and finance deals to delay the deleterious effects of the downturn in new car sales. But GM's "Red Tag" sale is kind of special, in that it offers all of these deals in different amounts to different brands depending on the model and/or the model year. The passive construction workers at the Wall Street Journal describes it thus: "Dealers will use red tags on selected vehicles to advertise a lower price than what typically is asked. The discounted price includes a so-called factory-to-dealer incentive of as much as $1,000 on certain 2008 models, and is combined with other low-interest or cash-rebate offers that in rare cases are also available. On the remaining stock of 2007 models, GM is offering cash rebates or no-interest loans spanning five years in most cases… Chevrolet, Pontiac, Buick, GMC and Saturn products are covered under the program. GM's Saab and Cadillac brands are holding separate campaigns that revolve around the holidays." Why so much confusion? "GM generally has backed away from offering broad and sweeping incentive campaigns that make it appear the company's entire portfolio is on clearance." Even though it pretty much is.

Hot on the heels of Steven Lang's editorial explaining the financial pitfalls of car depreciation, moments away from Justin Berkowitz review of the Infiniti G37, we're delighted to present CNNMoney's "Top 10 Best Resale Value Cars." The automotive analysts looked at Kelly Blue Book's guesses estimates of what different models might will be worth in five years. They then rated the cars based on their relative retained value. Not surprisingly, the list is import intensive. Surprisingly, three of the winners are Volkswagens. Here's the complete list in alphabetical order, with each model's predicted five-year retained value:

Chevy Corvette – 50 percent
Honda Civic Sedan – 52 percent
Infiniti G37 – 52 percent
MINI Cooper – 52 percent
Scion tC – 52 percent
Scion xB – 52 percent
Toyota Corolla – 52 percent
Volkswagen Eos – 52 percent
Volkswagen Jetta – 51 percent
Volkswagen Rabbit – 51 percent

The New Anatolian (Turkey's Only Independent English-language daily) reports that Proton plans to team-up with Iran and Turkey to adapt their products for the Islamic market.  We're talking about a built-in compass to determine the direction of Mecca for prayers, compartments specifically designed for storing the Quran and headscarves, and, uh, that's about it. Proton's Managing Director told Turkey's national news agency Bernama that the modifications were part of Iran's thinly-veiled (so to speak) plans to play the spiritual card to attract the region's car buyers. ''What they want to do is to call that an Islamic car,'' Syed Zainal Abidin said. Since it's inception in 1983, the Malaysian automaker has been no stranger to governmental intervention. Proton's domination of its home market was in no small part due to onerous import duties levied against its erstwhile competition. ("Was" in the sense that their share of the Malaysian market has slipped from 60 percent to 23 percent.) Will Iran skew the market in a similar way to favor domestically-built "Islamic" cars, and exclude any automaker who isn't in bed with the ruling regime? Sounds like a plan to me.  

If you're want to run a bunch– OK 30– hydrogen cars without answering uncomfortable questions about how much energy you used to make the hydrogen inside the hydrogen fuel cells and how much carbon releasing the process involved, where better to plunk your water vapor emitting vehicles than Norway? I mean, these guys are serious about switching to hydrogen– as is the prerogative of a country flooded with petro-dollars harvested from selling the black stuff on the world market. To that end, Auto Spectator reports reprints a Mazda press release revealing that the Japanese automaker has signed a "memorandum of understanding for collaboration and support in the development of a Hydrogen Economy" with HyNor （Hydrogen Road of Norway）. More prosaically, Mazda's selling them 30 RX-8 Hydrogen RE vehicles for their "real life implementation of a hydrogen energy infrastructure" along a route of 580 kilometers from Oslo to Stavanger. HyNor's side of the press release is all about "climate change mitigation," "Hydrogen Society," "carbon neutral infrastructure," "real hydrogen world" (as opposed to?), etc. For its part, Mazda wants the world to know that Norway's RX-8s are the first hydrogen-powered vehicles they've sold outside of Japan. Way to keep your eye on the ball!

Ford is kicking ass in the UK. Just-auto [sub] reports that private sales of the recently redesigned Ford Mondeo are up by over 20 percent year-on-year. Even better, high-profit top variants account for more than half of these retail orders. "Since the latest Mondeo went on sale in June, more than 16,500 have been registered in the UK and almost 52% of customers have specified top trim levels such as Titanium," Just-auto reports. "This compares with a share of under 35% for equivalent high series Mondeos two years ago." But wait, there's more! The new Focus is also a hit with private buyers. Non-fleet sales are up more than seven percent compared to last year. And more! Galaxy minivan and S-Max' retail registrations doubled in the same time frame. Clearly, someone within the Ford empire knows what they're doing…