With $150m in their pockets, Chevy's ad men are touting the new Malibu as "The Car You Can't Ignore." Apparently the dealers can ignore it, though. I went to not one, not two, but three dealers in search of the new 'Bu. At the first, Performance Chevrolet in East Meadow, NY, they don't have any in stock. "We will have more by the end of the month." Uh, that's almost a month away. At dealer two, Robert Chevrolet in Hicksville, NY, neither the front space facing the street nor the showroom had a new Malibu (although they did have a Corvette sitting next to an Aveo). Around back they had a Malibu LS tucked away from public view. But the salesman couldn't find the keys to unlock it. "You can look in the window though." Gee, thanks. The third dealership was the charm. Charm as in lucky; the dusty dealership has all the charm of the DMV. East Hills Chevrolet Oldsmobile, in Roslyn, NY, had several Malibus in stock. I was even allowed to sit in one (Egad!). Just goes to show: it doesn't really matter how good the car is when the dealers bite.

U.S. auto sales showed their first overall increase since May, with a 1.2 percent gain over last October– if you don't adjust for selling days. If you do, (as does BusinessWeek) then sales were down about 3 percent.. The good news: sales growth by GM, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan. The bad news: Ford and Chrysler weren't so fortunate (as in very, very unfortunate). Bloomberg attributes their sales tumble to the popularity of small cars and car-based SUVs (aka CUVs), one or the other (or both) of which are poorly represented in Chrysler's and Ford's lineups. Here's how the top seven fared overall:

Nissan – up 13%
Toyota – up 4.5%
Honda – up 3.8%
GM – Up 3.4%
Hyundai – down <1%
Chrysler – down 8.9%
Ford – down 9.5%

We'll have the detailed By The Numbers breakdown for our bellwether models next week.

As part of its plan to "balance supply against demand," GM's laying off workers at their the Lansing, Michigan plant. That's where The General builds its new Lambda CUVs: the Buick Enclave, GMC Acadia and Saturn Outlook. The triplets are this year's "save the company" vehicles– at least until the Malibu hits the streets tomorrow. If you listen to GM's spin, demand for the crossovers is booming! But if they're selling them as fast as they can ship them, why are they cutting an entire shift at the only plant that's building them? Why to keep supplies low to keep residuals high! Alternatively… So far this year, GM's sold 91,412 of the large crossovers. Of those, the Acadia accounted for 52,857 units, the Enclave racked-up 12,726 sales, and Saturn shifted 25,793 Outlooks. GM likes to brag that at the first of October, they had only a 21-day supply of Enclaves and a 49-day supply of Acadias. But– and they don't talk too much about this– they had enough Outlooks to last 73 days. Uh oh. Buick actually has a smaller supply of dead-in-the-water Lucernes on hand than Saturn has Outlooks. Maybe things aren't quite as rosy in Lambda-land as The Wall Street Journal and others are painting them.  

As Marketwatch rightly points out, all this talk of United Auto Workers' contracts this, plug-in hybrids that, and Chinese expansion the other thing, doesn't have much impact on Detroit's current bottom line. Ahead of this Thursday's reports on October sales, the Dow Jones' diligent reporters have rounded-up the usual suspects. First up, Goldman Sachs analyst Robert Barry. To say Barry isn't bullish on the U.S. car market's immediate prospects would be like saying Eeyore needs Prozac. "With oil prices above $90, choppy stock markets, and renewed economic concerns, the selling environment remains poor for new light vehicle sales." Barry reckons ramped-up incentives on outgoing '07s are all that's propping-up U.S. sales. Once those wear-off… Barry's particularly sanguine about Ford Motor Co.; he's told his clients that The Blue Oval Boyz are heading for a 17 percent hit against their October sales numbers. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache doesn't like what he sees over at Chrysler; weak truck sales are likely to lead another double-digit decline. And Barry's warning that Chrysler's Last Big Thing, its new minivans, "may be off to a slow start."

Struth! It's a pretty bizarre state of affairs for automakers down under. Despite Toyota's status as Australia's largest vehicle importer (138,640 vehicles year-to-date), the automaker's calling for the Australian government NOT to lower import tariffs below 10 percent. Speaking to the Sydney Morning Herald at the Tokyo motor show, Toyota's executive vice-president of global product planning warned that lowering the Ozzie tariff risked crushing the country's exports. Here's the deal. Toyota builds Camrys in Melbourne. If it can't sell enough Camrys locally, then it makes it harder to justify keeping the plant open to export the vehicle to countries in the region. Tokuichi Uranishi reminded the Herald that Melbourne competes for biz with the six other Camry factories worldwide. And a strong Australian dollar isn't helping matters– at all. But the country's Automotive Competitiveness and Investment Scheme (ACIS) is; the feds have pledged import tariff rebates on cars and components worth AUS $7b between 2000 and 2015. So where does all this leave Ford, Holden and Mitsubishi's home-grown products? Splitting less than 20 percent of Oz' domestic market, down from 50 percent ten years ago. 

OK, here's the rule for car buyers looking to claim a federal tax credit for their hybrid: "Original owners may claim the full amount of the allowable credit up to the end of the first calendar quarter after the quarter in which the manufacturer records its sale of the 60,000th vehicle. For the second and third calendar quarters after the quarter in which the 60,000th vehicle is sold, taxpayers may claim 50 percent of the credit. For the fourth and fifth calendar quarters, taxpayers may claim 25 percent of the credit. No credit is allowed after the fifth quarter." So the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) had a butcher's (look) at GM and Ford hybrid sales for the quarter ending Sept. 30 and decided neither automaker's sold enough gas – electric vehicles to start the winding down process. Ford's getting there; The Blue Oval Boyz sold 38,743 hybrids last quarter. GM's not even close, at 9,577 hybrids. For a full list of the qualifying vehicles and the tax credits for each, click HERE. Oh, and in case you're wondering, Toyota blew by the 60k hybrid tax barrier on June 30, 2006. In the second quarter of '07 alone, Toyota sold sold 79,723 hybrids (54,821 Prii). 

The Chairman of the National Automobile Dealers Association (NADA) doesn't believe "overdealering" should take the rap for Detroit's woes. In an editorial posted on NADA.org and published without comment in Automotive News, Dale Wiley attempts to refute a Detroit Free Press article claiming that a glut of franchisees costs The Big 2.8 some $4b a year. [NB: The article in question has mysteriously disappeared from the newspaper's website.] Rather than address the big picture, Wiley (both by name and by nature) hones-in on the Freep's assertion that the Bigs pick-up the cost of sending vehicles to dealer parking lots. Nit picked and any discussion of actual dealer numbers ignored (GM has some 7100 U.S. dealers while Toyota somehow "makes do" with about 1600), Wiley poses the "real" question. "Will the Detroit 3 will drastically lose market share if they drastically reduce the number of their dealers?" Good question, even if it mistakes cause for effect. Shame the NADA boss doesn't answer it. But we do learn that "research at GM found that a dealership only needs to sell 10 new vehicles a year to pay for the cost of supporting that dealership." Huh? Anyway, here's Wiley's bottom line: "Anti-trust laws impose restrictions on trade associations advocating actions that would reduce competition, so it is inappropriate for NADA to take sides in the debate over dealer numbers." Wink, wink.

After Chrysler's executive [I have a] dream team addressed the issue of Canadian pricing in Sin City, they may soon wish that what they said in Vegas stayed in Vegas. Speaking to WardsAuto, Ex-Toyota Prez Jim Press said Chrysler had inflated their sticker prices north of the border to account for the historic 10 to 40 percent gap between the dollar and the loonie. And now that the currencies are at parity? “Currency is a long-term move," a pressed Press confessed. "It goes one place to another, and when cycles come up, you take (that) into account. What you have to do is price at where the market is, and that’s what we’ll continue to do.” As for Canadian customers who dare cross the border to buy a Chrysler product, the automaker admits it's trying to cut them off at the pass. Steve Landry, executive director-North American sales, told Wards that he's sent memos to U.S. dealers warning them against selling vehicles to Canada on the gray market  Needless to say, Landry claims it's for the customer's own good, considering Canadian auto regs. “It’s not just homologation of an odometer. You have to also change the daytime running lights, which is a pain… Our dealers are more into selling vehicles where they can take care of the entire lifecycle of that customer in that vehicle." Convinced?

In accordance with standard industry practice, the Mercury brand's website lists whatever promotions and rebates are ongoing. They are, of course, only telling buyers part of the sales story. The "Ford for Sexy Urban Professional Ladies with Style" brand is also sending out rebates via email called "private cash." It's not clear who is receiving the $500 coupons and why, but several have gone to people that don't have Ford family vehicles. They are more than just a standard incentive; each coupon has a recipient-specific code that's not transferrable outside of the household. This kind of targeted rebate has some benefits for the company. For one thing, the offer stays outside the general news stream (at least, it did until right now). For another, it's been reported as "making recipients feel really special and sort of warm inside." Not surprisingly, the Mercury Mariner Hybrid (a.k.a. the only Merc with a modicum of interest from the public) is excluded from the under-the-table incentive. If I was shopping for a car, I'd definitely take one of these golden tickets down to the Mercury dealership and test drive a Milan V6 (wait, already did that).

Bloomberg reports that GM outsold Toyota for the first nine months of this year, to remain the world's largest automaker. GM's strong showing overseas gave them a total of 7.06m sales, compared to Toyota's 7.05m. Both companies are seeking to ameliorate a slump in their home patch by expanding into emerging economies. GM's fastest growing markets in the third quarter: Latin America, Africa and the Middle East. The General showed double digit sales increases in these territories, along with solid gains in the Asian-Pacific region. Meanwhile, GM's North American sales sank 6.6 percent for the year. While ToMoCo's NA sales are increasing, the Japanese automaker's growth stateside has slowed over the past three months. Toyota expects to overtake GM for worldwide production this year, as GM cuts production of trucks and SUVs. In sum, GM projects total worldwide production will hit 9.285m vehicles in 2007. Toyota predicts they'll produce 9.34m units.

Business Week scribe Jim Henry calls them "wallflowers:" cars with obvious charms that have customers lined-up none deep. Now that Chrysler has somewhat kinda hang on we better wait for this union contract to go through before we actually announce anything decided to trim some dealer deadwood, Henry explains the reasons why great cars' sales suck. Why is the Hyundai Azera a drug on the market? "Customers almost have to discover the Azera for themselves. Except when it was first launched, it hasn't had much model-specific advertising." Kia Amanti? Same deal (as opposed to hideous looks and a misguided attempt to take Kia upmarket). And add Daimler's R-Class to that list. As for the Saab 9-5, Henry nails it: "It competes with European heavyweights like BMW and Mercedes-Benz, which have bigger engines, more prestige, more awareness, more of almost everything." Nissan Quest? Styling's too rad. Lincoln Town Car? Ford Explorer? Buyers downsized. So now you know. Oh, one more thing: Henry reckons you should buy one these turkeys also-rans 'cause they're cheap. "That's one of the good things about wallflowers—they are usually very happy to dance if you ask them." Ain't that the truth. 

The Star reports that Ford's Canadian President is publicly pleading for the life of the St. Thomas factory that currently produces the dinosaurs-on-wheels Ford Crown Victoria and Mercury Grand Marquis. Bill Osborne asserts that "strong volumes and margins in new production of the Lincoln Town Car next year could justify the continuation of production on one shift." Past history suggests our neighbor to the north is whistling Dixie. This summer, Ford shut down the Canadian facility's second shift. Although St. Thomas now gets the Town Car, sales volumes are such (down 72.5 percent from last year) that there are no plans to restart the second shift. Osborne's hopes that the big Lincoln will generate enough profits to stand pat and stay the executioner's blade seem highly optimistic. Shuttering St. Thomas would spike the last of Ford's full-sized, rear-wheel drive sedans.  

CNN Money is reporting that Toyota has dropped from first to fifth place in Consumer Reports' (CR) ranking of average predicted reliability for all models sold under a given brand after one year of ownership. ToMoCo now slots beneath Honda, Acura, Scion and Subaru. What's worse, CR no longer recommends V6 Camrys or V8 Tundra full-size pickups due to their poor reliability. And the hits keep happening. CR says the results are so rad/bad they're changing their "free ride" methodology. Before now, Consumer Reports would assume at least average reliability for Toyota's new cars, without waiting for owner survey data. From now on, the magazine will wait for a full year of reliability survey data before recommending a Toyota product. As it does with most other manufacturers. As it should have from the git-go. Meanwhile, of the domestics, only Buick made it into CR's top ten, although Ford and Mercury are climbing CR's brand reliability charts (to 13th and 11th respectively). Of the 39 cars rated "most reliable," the domestics scored just four nods. Of the 44 "least reliable" models, The Big 2.8 accounted for 20. And the biggest loser is… the Solstice, with 234 percent less reliability than CR's statistical average. Pontiac's once red-hot roadster just beat the Cadillac Escalade EXT for the bottom position. CR reckons the 'Slade is 220 percent less reliable than average. That doesn't sound good.

[TTAC data provider truedelta analyzes CR's methodology here.] 

So here I am, on the phone to a car dealer to hook-up a test drive in the "new" Ford Focus. As I type, I'm on hold, listening to an ad for Stop and Shop. While I'm sure the message is part of a radio station plug-in, why the Hell should I call a car dealer to be sold groceries? Anyway, Dennis comes on the line forty-nine seconds later to tell me that they've got one, and it's on the showroom floor. Great! I'll come down for a test drive. When are you interested in buying the car? I resist the urge to blurt out "when my penis exceeds 12 inches." Before I can say "soon" he goes off on a rant on how some people want to test drive cars that they're only interested in buying six months hence, and how his manager is not enamored with test drives related to purchases within this time frame. Five minutes later, I get a return call. We're good to go. Do you have a vehicle to trade-in? And that's it, save a sudden desire to take a shower. Still. this process keeps us in touch with what you go through, and I gotta say, it ain't pretty. As Ford doesn't have a whole lot of exciting cars in the showroom or pipeline, perhaps they ought to use this interregnum to sort some things out at the sharp end.

What's the bet that Ford has a whole room full of MBA's who do nothing more than scan the tea leaves of the U.S. economy and powerpoint their prognostications to the Powers That Be? If so, you gotta be a little worried, 'cause Ford CEO Alan Mulally doesn't seem to be. Despite the ongoing slide in American home values (a.k.a. the mortgage crisis) the soaring price of oil (cresting $86 a barrel) and the current downturn in new car sales ('07 looks to be the slowest year since '98), Reuters reports that Big Al sees 2008 U.S. light vehicle sales between 16.3 million and 16.5 million units. In fact, "We've laid out our plans to handle that kind of volume." Yes, well, however theoretical, a rising tide doesn't lift all boats. As Reuters points out, Ford has lost roughly one percent market share per year since the turn of the century, and is set to shut 16 plants and cut more than 50k jobs. Here's hoping The Blue Oval Boyz know something we don't.