The post-apocalyptic analysis of December’s sales results continues, as pundits and producers attempt to make sense of the crater that’s replaced the U.S. new car market. Obviously, the situation will have the greatest impact on the Chrysler and GM. The domestic automakers have just finished their first suckle on Uncle Sugar’s taxpayer teat, with GM auguring-in for its second go mid-month. And both companies face a congressional grilling when they return for more money in March. So, what to do? What to do? For answers to that question, for the manufacturers’ spin, we turn to their unofficial mouthpiece, The Detroit News. “Auto sales skid: Recovery rests on stimulus” starts with good news! “After barely making it through the worst year for auto sales since 1992, Detroit’s Big Three expect consumer demand to remain very weak in the first half of 2009 but begin to recover in the second half.” I’d like to point out that a general “sales” recovery does not necessarily mean Chrysler or GM’s recovery. But that would kind of ruin the flow, if you know what I mean. To wit…

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Carscoop! is breaking European brochure pics of the 2009 Insight, Honda’s rival to the Toyota Prius, the gas – electric hyrbid that’s gone from hero to zero [percent financing] in less than six months. Coincidentally enough (if only just), the Priusalike makes its appearance a few days before the denuded Detroit Auto Show (“Now with 100 percent less Nissan“). That’s where the 2010 Prius also makes its debut. Unfortunately, we only get the pics from Honda brochure; the text would have provided welcome insight into the Insight’s marketing angle. Will HoMoCo promote the Insight on price or performance? The green hot rod angle is not entirely inconceivable; the now extinct Accord hybrid was the fastest of its breed. Carscoop! has three pictures of the Insight’s speedo; at 20, 24 and 42mph. So, no, then.

A week ago, AP cited an article in the Nikkei that wasn’t there. That article that didn’t exist was about an all solar car that didn’t exist. Under the headline “Toyota Secretly Developing Solar Powered Green Car” the AP “news” about the article and car that only existed in imagination was reprinted 164k times, as Google has it.

Not only had the original Nikkei article not been printed. TTAC’s B&B also opined that a solar powered car would be total bunk. “There is no way you are going to power anything like a conventional car on a normal duty cycle with only the PV modules on roof of the car,” wrote B&B RedStapler. He was not alone. WIRED wrote that “a chorus of online skeptics have begun dismissing reports that Toyota’s “top secret” solar concept would ever see the light of day.”
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A short overview of what happened in other parts of the world while you were in bed. TTAC provides round-the-clock coverage of everything that has wheels. Or has its wheels coming off. WAS is being filed from Beijing.

Toyota Motor Corp halts production at Japanese plants: They’ll do that for 11 days in February and March, Reuters reports. A 37 percent slump in December sales in Toyota’s biggest market U.S.A. was its sharpest fall in more than a quarter of a century and worse than General Motors and Ford Motor.

Porsche owns more than half of VW: Porsche has raised its stake in Volkswagen to more than 50 percent, and as a result they may end up with a truck company they do not want, writes Reuters. A Porsche spokesman confirmed that the sports car maker still planned to increase its stake in VW to 75 percent at some point this year, given a favorable market environment. As a result of its stake hike on Monday, Porsche now has indirect control of Swedish truck maker Scania, in which Volkswagen holds about 69 percent of the voting rights. Porsche is required by Swedish law to make a mandatory takeover offer, but the German sports car maker said it had no strategic interest in Scania and was not interested in acquiring Scania shares. It said it was not bound by pre-acquisition prices and was only obliged to offer the minimum price prescribed by law.

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Nissan’s December sales weren’t out of line compared with the rest of the Big 6, down 30.7 percent in the last month of the year. Unlike some others today, the sales release didn’t have much nausea-inducing spin.  Again the couple of bright spots were the CUVs Rogue and Murano, up 10 and 54 percent respectively. The Quest minivan was again the mass-production loser, down 74.7 percent and 491 barely hustled. Other Nissan branded cars and trucks were well into negative territory, regardless of size or displacement. 2008 totals down 10.9 percent and just under 1 million sold., or less than half of Toyota. Infiniti division took a (par) 34.6 percent hit with nary a bright spot and closed out the year down 11.1 percent. At 112K vehicles, totals were roughly half that of Lexus, Mercedes, and BMW. Godzilla body count: 149 this month, 1,730 (potential fried transmissions) for the year. (We kid. We hope.)

In fact, sales for the Toyota brand itself (as distinct from Scion and Lexus) fell by 37.5 percent. Oh yeah? Well, Lexus’ December sales sank by a whopping 41.8 percent. There was only one– count it ONE vehicle– that experienced a sales increase. The Lexus LX, the gigantic badge-engineered Toyota Land Cruiser, increased sales from 132 to 508 monthly sales (something to do with gray market exports to the Gulf methinks). Everything else dropped like a proverbial stone thrown in a deep dark well, from the Corolla (-19.4 percent) to the Camry (-22.6 percent) to the Highlander (-47.1 percent) to the aforementioned Land Cruiser (-65 percent). The Scion xB redo is looking like a HUGE mistake, with sales off by 52.6 percent for the month, which is only slightly less bad than December sales of the Texas-built Tundra (-52.2 percent). One wonders what these numbers would look like without the Saved By Zero marketing campaign. Folks, in case you didn’t know it, it’s Hell out there.

My remedy for advanced bailout fatigue (and looming cold December): two weeks in Hawaii. I decided to leave the choice of rental cars in the hands of the island gods. And they spoke, with more wisdom and prescience than I might have imagined. Turns out that escape from the bitter truth about The Big 2.8’s death rattles is impossible, even on the most remote islands on the globe. How else could I be comparing a Dodge Charger with a fifteen-year old Toyota Camry?

In today’s podcast, Jonny and I talked — among other things — about the Toyota Century (mistakenly referred to as the Toyota Crown at first). We both think the V12 Japanese retrolimo is fantastic, and that its old-school technology (curtains?!) are charming as all get out. I agree with him that overflowing technology doesn’t make a car luxurious, and if someone would make a very comfortable, isolating quiet car I’d be thrilled. In other news, we hit on the Kia Soul, had debates about the insane 16-cylinder Cizeta-Moroder V16T on Autofiends, another debate about the Avanti, and then he presented a book report about a fascinating-sounding book called “Brightwork,” which Jonny received for the Jewish festival of lights, Hannukah.

Kia’s Soul has hit the shores of Britain, and early feedback from the last bastion of English-language automotive print journalism credibility is looking promising. The Soul faces stiff competition in Old Blighty, taking on a pallette of available small cars, wagons and CUVs that American buyers can only imagine. And with European expectations for small car quality as high as they are, if the Soul is going to fall flat the Brits would sure let us know ahead of time. Instead, the reviews seem to indicate that the Soul is no less brand-redefining than Hyundai’s Genesis.

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Truth be told, there’s not a damn thing automakers can do to revive the U.S. auto market to 2007 levels. All they can do is ride out the economic shitstorm that was, in no small part, created by the lax lending standards in which they were active not to say maniacally enthusiastic participants (I’m looking at you GMAC). Who would have thought the fact that all automakers are suffering would provide the basis for an excuse for GM to extort $17.4b from Uncle Sugar? Ahem. Anyway, yes, Toyota’s going to take it in the shorts. One TTAC’s front line contacts runs a store in the DC area for the Japanese brand [NB: not the one shown], and checks in on your behalf. “We sold 428 vehicles for December. 148 Used, 380 New Toyota. We sold 625 new and used vehicles last year in Dec. Prius is selling at or below invoice, Camry Hybrid below invoice, Highlander Hybrid below invoice. Just thought you’d like to know.” Uh-oh. I make that a 32 percent drop.

Warren Brown is nothing if not ambitious in his defense of the indefensible (i.e. GM CEO Rick Wagoner). Rather than just raise a[nother] cheer for the man who’s spent the last decade-plus jamming the yoke forward on General Motors’ inexorable descent into bankruptcy, the Washington Post carmudgeon decided to rewrite the entire history of the Japanese “invasion” of the American automotive market. But before he does that, Warren upbraids those who’ve called for Toyota Prez Katsuaki Watanabe to resign, suggesting that Watanabe and Wagoner are birds of a feather, getting flocked together. “GM, as we all know, has lost substantially more than $1.7 billion. In fact, it has lost $72.3 billion since 2004 under Wagoner’s reign. By that measurement, applying Fire the Coach rules, Wagoner is 40 times more deserving of dismissal than Watanabe. But here’s arguing that all of that is sloppy logic and in many ways inherently unfair. Here’s also suggesting that Fire the Coach management will solve nothing — or remedy very little — in an arena where game policy is athwart common sense, as it is and has been in a United States absent effective industrial and energy policies.” Same old you-know-what, different wrapper. Brown is once again, blaming everyone BUT Wagoner for GM’s chronic, shameful self-destruction. 

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There are all sorts of end of the year automotive lists. The ten best this and the ten worst that. My favorite list is not a car gong per se. The Darwin Awards are given to those who improve the gene pool by removing themselves from it. As you might imagine, automobiles figure prominently in this roll call of death by stupidity. To wit: Ivece Plattner of Italy. Plattner was driving a Porsche Cayenne (which is already a bit of a red flag), stuck in traffic on a railroad crossing, waiting for the light to turn green. When the crossing barriers came down, they trapped the Cayenne.

Onlookers said he didn’t realize he was stuck until the train was approaching. In desperation he opened the door and jumped out of the car. Instead of getting out of Dodge, Plattner started running up the tracks, in the train’s path, waving his arms and screaming. The engineer hit the brakes, but inertia and momentum working the way they do, the train hit the Porschephile and threw him about 100 ft. Plattner was survived by his Porsche Cayenne, which he loved more than life itself.

In a story from the Talmud (tractate Shabbat 31a), a potential convert approached the great rabbi Hillel and asked him to sum up the Torah “on one foot.” Hillel replied “what’s distasteful to you don’t do to your neighbor, that’s the entire Torah, the rest is commentary, go and learn.” Too bad a couple of ranch hands on a lonely country road hadn’t learned that lesson…

The telephone company had been burying lines. To allow traffic to pass, they dug up half the road at a time and put up warning barriers with flashing lights to direct traffic to the safe side. After they laid the cable half way, they’d fill in that side and then do the same on the other side. Pranksters had moved the flashing lights to the good side of the road.

Speeding late at night and way over the legal blood alcohol limit, the ranch hands drove straight into the hole and died. Because of the moved lights the Sheriff’s accident analysis turned into a criminal matter. Crime scene analysis of tire tracks and footprints on the dirt road revealed that the pranksters were the ranch hands themselves, on their way to the bar. 

I don’t think that rabbi Hillel would have put it this way, but payback’s a bitch. The next automotive Darwin award also involves a pickup truck, this time pressed into service as a winch.

It seems that someone had cut down a fairly large tree at the base of an embankment. For some reason, instead of just tying a cable to the tree and his hitch and pulling the tree up the slope he decided to use his rear axle as a winch. He jacked up the truck and replaced one tire with a bare rim he had in the bed hoping to wind the cable on the rim as it spun. He went over to the cab and had one foot on the gas and another on the ground, with the door open, so he could observe his handy work. He put it into gear, hit the gas and the truck lurched back, swinging the door on him and trapping him as the truck went down the embankment.

[From an automotive standpoint, this Darwin may be the most interesting. The Darwin Awards are based on submissions and votes at their web site and there’s a forum where people can discuss the different stories. This one generated a long and interesting thread on differentials, friction and torque.]

The final automotive Darwin Award for 2008 involves a dangerous combination: young males with a SUV, a shopping cart and a passionate desire to do something they saw on an internet video.

Cameron Bieberle, an 18-year-old Winter Park, Florida man decided to take a ride in a shopping cart, hanging on to his friend’s SUV as it drove through their apartment complex parking lot. While speed bumps are but a nuisance to a SUV, shopping cart suspensions have a bit less wheel travel. Bieberle was bounced from the cart and landed on the pavement headfirst. DOA.

With car sales so deep in the toilet that Toyota and Honda are both losing money, while the domestics live hand-to-mouth on government subsidy, it’s nice to know that there are still worse ways to mess up with cars than running a car company. As they used to say on Hill Street Blues, be careful out there. Or, the gene pool you save may be your own.

 Maranello, we have a problem. Ferrari sales are down – way down – and waiting lists are evaporating. It’s not difficult to lay the blame for the sales meltdown on the “global credit crisis.” But the Scuderia must shoulder a good portion of the blame. Demand for the F430, particularly the Spider, has virtually disappeared following the arrival of the Ferrari California retractable hardtop. As it turns out, most F430 buyers didn’t care so much about the F430’s mid-engined balance, peerless on-track performance or Schumacher-tested suspension. They were buying the F430 because it was the cheapest Ferrari. And now that there is a cheaper one, they’re buying that instead. What we have here, as Strother Martin might say, is failure to understand the customer. 

Behind the public façade of three-martini lunches and the endless drone of blabbermouthing focus-group research, automotive-industry marketing is a tough job. The marketing man (or woman) is caught between the Scylla of fickle customer demand and a Charybdis of stubborn engineers, stingy accountants and mercurial management. His product is rarely the best one available. He must increase sales by reaching out to new buyers without infuriating current customers.

Our intrepid marketroid may surmount all of these obstacles, triumph over the previous generation’s reliability record, obscure the unfortunate styling of the wagon variant, and convince the press to report favorably on cupholder count while neglecting to mention the fifty-dollar Korean original-equipment tires, only to see his baby stumble over the final, most critical hurdle: the omnipresent gap between perception and reality.

This is the black magic of the marketing biz, what Orwell called “doublethink,” the Nurburgring of metal-moving. Every brand, every model, every trim level is sold to two buyers: the imaginary buyer and the real one.

The impossibly beautiful and perfect forty-year-old woman who fairly bubbles out of her Christmas-morning negligee upon spotting a red-ribboned new Lexus SUV in her driveway; the square-jawed, Vacheron-Constantin-wearing man’s man who attentively pilots his Nine Eleven down a rainy autobahn; the quartet of twenty-something models without which no Jeep Wrangler would be complete-– imaginary buyers, all of them.

Next to them we find the ephemeral best selves presented on the Internet: the fellow who claims to dominate twenty trackdays a year in his Elise but in reality holds up the hind end of just a few Novice sessions; the people who have ten cars in their “sig” but neglect to mention that nine of them are in the actual possession of distant relatives; the woman who faithfully buys the same car her neighbors do while claiming safety, reliability, or economy as the reasons. 

Real buyers are far less interesting. They’re primarily concerned with the cheap shine of perceived prestige, the dimly understood terror of major mechanical difficulty, and the hard graft of discounted pricing.

Many marketers make the classical mistake of falling in love with their own creations. Who would have thought that a relatively unlovely, pudgy-hipped hardtop convertible would displace the disco volante F430 Spider? Only somebody who understands real Ferrari owners. 

It’s a mistake made by manufacturers far less romantically inclined than the Scuderia. Stung by criticism of the tepid first-generation “Quaalude,” Honda slaved to make each successive Prelude faster, more involving and more perfectly attuned to the sensibilities of its enthusiasts– only to see the model’s sales slaughtered by the Accord Coupe. The imaginary Prelude buyer was a corner-carver; the real Prelude buyer wanted a two-door Honda with a trunk.

Cadillac, as a brand, is almost indelibly associated with the V-8 engine. But once the 3.6 direct-injection mill arrived in the STS, the Northstar version of the same car became showroom poison. Real Caddy buyers are more than happy to cut the cylinder count and save a buck.

Ford’s marketing corps had distinct customers in mind for the Edge, Flex, and Taurus X; in reality, eighty percent of the buyers for any of the three are also serious buyers for the others. 

Every time Toyota allows the Camry to grow bigger, heavier, cheaper, and floatier, they stray further from the tidy perfectionism of the landmark 1992 model – and the car finds its way into more garages as a result. 

As the American automotive market goes from bad to worse in 2009, expect more and more manufacturers to demand additional pragmatism from their marketing departments. 

From the enthusiast perspective, automakers may soon trim big engines, manual transmissions and thirty-two-millimeter swaybars from new-model programs. Since most people can be bullied into buying a silvery-greyish car with a grayish-black partial-leather interior, automakers’ current (and despicable) lack of real color and interior-material choices will become even more restrictive.

Voltaire warned us that “the best is the enemy of the good.” The reverse is also true. The poseur Ferrari California is the enemy of the poised F430; the clumsy Scion tC was the death of the sublime Celica GT-S; the everyday Accord Coupe drove a stake into the exquisite Prelude’s heart. 

Or perhaps that’s wrong. The American car buyer finds himself in the position of Fight Club’s narrator at the movie’s end. We “see” the pistol held to our head by the manufacturers, the dealers, the marketers. But they aren’t really holding the gun. We are. If you want the automakers to keep building the kind of cars you really want, buy one.  

The New York Times entered the irony-free zone this morning, with an op ed entitled “GM’s Secret Success.” WTF? Is one of the Gray Lady’s ambassadors about to call GM’s descent into bankruptcy and subsequent raid on the public purse a “success”? Nah. The author of the forthcoming tome “Why G.M. Matters: Inside the Race to Transform an American Icon” wants you to know that GM CEO Rick Wagoner is a genius interruptus. “In reality, Mr. Wagoner has presided over the most sweeping transformation of G.M. since the 1920s,” William J. Holstein opines. “He has reversed management’s long practice of meekly going along with the demands of the United Auto Workers, notably with a deal to transfer health care costs to a union-controlled trust over the next two years.” Ah, a tour of an alternate reality. Cool. But why stop there? Why indeed.

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On Monday, U.S. manufacturers will announce – as much as they hate it – last month’s sales. It is expected that sales have dropped in December by “48 percent from a year earlier at Chrysler, 41 percent at GM and 33 percent at Ford,” based on the average estimates of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The oracles expect a likewise bloodbath amongst the Nipponese: “Toyota Motor Corp. may report a 40 percent slide and Honda Motor Co. may say its total was down 36 percent,” said Brian Johnson, a Barclays Capital analyst in New York.

The actual numbers reported by the manufacturers will provide fodder for the dreaded SAAR, which will also be announced for December. No, it’s not a disease that will wipe out China, although it might cause similar symptoms. It’s the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate for the month. It’s a statistician’s shorthand for “how many cars would we sell for the next year if people’s buying habits stay exactly like the last month?” For all we know now, the December rate will probably be the worst in insert-the-appropriate-timescale-here.

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