Toyota’s Prius defended its title as best selling car in Japan, which it had re-gained from Honda’s Fit in June. Production at Toyota is getting back in gear, and pre-ordered Prius Alpha wagons are finding their way to their owners. Table provided by the Japan Automobile Dealer Association JADA after the jump … (Read More…)
GM has announced its Q2 earnings [Analyst slides in PDF here], and the firm has recorded a healthy $2.5b profit for the quarter on strong North American performance and an end to losses from the European Opel division. In fact, on an EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) basis, all of GM’s global divisions were in the black last quarter, although GM Europe and GM South America both recorded modest $100m gains and GMIO (which includes the lucrative Chinese market) recorded a $600m EBIT. The powerhouse continues to be GM North America, which recorded $2.2b in EBIT, continuing North America’s post-bailout importance as the driver of GM’s financial results. Globally, a $600m reduction in EBIT due to costs and “other” was offset by the same amount of gains in volume/mix, while pricing added a billion dollars to overall EBIT. And though fleet sales were up in North America, incentives for the quarter appear to have hit record lows. [Hit the jump for global deliveries and market share/fleet data, via GM’s financial highlights release].
Tata’s Nano was launched with much fanfare in 2009, as the world’s cheapest car and a symbol of India’s automotive and economic aspirations. But first Tata had problems with its factory, which was to be built on land [allegedly] stolen from local farmers. Then, early last year, the cars started catching fire and refused to stop. Then finance was the issue, and when Tata revamped its finance, advertising and retail presence, it looked like things were beginning to improve. It turns out the bump was short-lived. After hitting 5k monthly sales last December, volume has fallen again dropping to 3,260 units in July (1/8th the volume of its main rival the Maruti Suzuki Alto) according to indiancarsbikes.in, which reckons
Startlingly, the most fuel efficient petrol car in the country, which is the most inexpensive too isn’t finding takers in a market troubled by high petrol prices and rising loan interest rates, that is clearly favoring cheaper and more fuel efficient cars… the market isn’t biting and the Nano sales have begun the downward spiral, this time continually.
So, what’s Tata going to fix to get its attempt at “India’s Model T” back off the ground. How about “everything”?
Despite solid gains at most brands, losses at tsunami-afflicted Honda and Toyota were sever enough to reduced the July bottom line of U.S. auto sales to a tepid 1 percent gain. The seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) for July stands at 12.24 million units. The pent-up demand is still in hiding, but automaker have not given up the hope for its return:
“There are people who put off vehicle purchases because of uncertainty about fuel prices, vehicle availability and the economy,” said Don Johnson, head of U.S. sales for GM, told Automotive News [sub]. “As these conditions improve in the latter half of this year, many of these buyers will return to the market.”
Others take a more cautious stance. (Read More…)
With full sales numbers reported for July, TTAC is proud to announce its first-ever auto analyst grades [analyst estimates via Bloomberg]. For now we’re simply grading SAAR projections, but we’ve included OEM projections where applicable, for your own comparison. For July, the top-rated analyst was Edmunds.com’s Jessica Caldwell, whose SAAR prediction was an uncanny .5% off the actual number. Congratulations to Jessica and the Edmunds team, as well as our other A-rated analysts, Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank and Peter Nesvold of Jefferies (who squeaked in with an A-). Hit the jump to see how we calculated our grades.
New car sales in Japan, excluding minivehicles, were down 27.6 percent on the year to 241,472 in July, while Japan slowly recovers from the effect of the March 11 tsunami, but continues to suffer from a contracting market. Data released today by the Japan Automobile Dealers Association shows that this is the 11th month straight down. Gory details after the jump … (Read More…)
With the luxury market defying sluggish economic conditions, Daimler CEO Dieter Zetsche doesn’t want the upstarts at BMW and Audi to slip past it… which they are. Six months through 2011, the Mercedes brand found itself in third place among the German global luxury brands, at 610,531 units. A surging BMW captured 689,861 sales in the half, while Audi took second with 652,970. This, for Zetsche, is an unthinkable state of affairs. In a letter to his employees, excerpted by Automotive News Europe [sub], Zetsche makes it clear that leadership in the luxury space is a Daimler birthright.
Some of our competitors are now growing faster and more profitably than we are. Granted, those are just snapshots in time and should not be overestimated. After all, many of our best new products are yet to come… In the long run we can’t be content to be in a “solid second” or even “third” place: We are Daimler – we should be far ahead of the pack! And if that requires something that we don’t currently have, then we’ll identify and develop it.
Enjoy your summer and refill your tanks. Because in the second half of this year we’re going to continue to play some hard offense!
New car sales were up 9.9 percent in July in Germany, says the German Kraftfahrtbundesamt. As the picture above shows, sales are slightly above 2010 (red line) and below the Abwrackprämien-addled 2009. Normalcy ensues in Deutschland, which is mostly on vacation anyway. The summer months are not for car buying, they are for car driving. (Read More…)
Sales volume grew slowly in July, as economic uncertainty and supply interruptions continued to foil a full turnaround in US sales volume. On the other hand, TrueCar reports that the consumers that did buy cars spent record amounts on average, as transaction prices soared to their highest levels in history and incentives fell. According to our developing table, the Detroit automakers are coming through July ahead of their year-ago numbers, but the Japanese automakers (who are still releasing their numbers) are expected to take a bit of punishment as they struggle to recover from the industry-crippling tsunami. Hit the jump for a full table of July sales results (developing).
Every month, Bloomberg publishes monthly auto sales estimates from the leading analysts… and as this month’s survey proves, they’re all over the place. With SAAR estimates running from 11.4m units to 12.1m units, and with Ford’s growth estimates ranging from 4.2% to 11%, it’s clear that we will have some winners and losers from the bunch. In short, the analyst community needs a little truth injection… which, of course, is where TTAC comes in. This month, and every month in the future, TTAC will be grading analysts on the accuracy of their forecasts. By comparing analyses from month to month, we hope to build a case for which analysts are the most consistently accurate. Industry analysts beware: TTAC has put you on notice!
Polk’s Tom Libby takes a penetrating look into the obvious and reveals that American luxury car buyers rarely actually buy their cars, reporting:
Industry-wide, leases comprise about a fifth of all new vehicle registrations, but within the luxury market, lease penetration is more than twice as high at 45%. Three premium makes: BMW, Infiniti and Mercedes-Benz, actually have national lease rates at or above 50%…
These extraordinarily high lease results lead to several conclusions. First, the price of the vehicle is not the be-all and end-all. Rather, the monthly lease payment is a crucial factor. The monthly payment is not completely linked to the price, as the OEM and dealer have several tools by which to manipulate the monthly payment; these include, among other things, artificially raising the forecasted residual amount and increasing/decreasing the up-front lease payment. Second, if your premium make is not in the leasing business, you need to get there right away. Lastly, your lease rates, residuals and drive-away costs need to be competitive.
While there’s a lesson about America’s ceaseless desire to live beyond its means in there somewhere, the real lesson here is this: with sales coming out tomorrow, be sure to remember that not all of them are actual sales. Also, this is the reason you never see those “Don’t Laugh, It’s Paid Off” stickers anymore…
Between Consumer Reports’ decision to drop the Honda Civic from its “recommended” list, the poor financial numbers, increased competition from Detroit, Wolfsburg and Korea and the chaos of the tsunami (not to mention the Toyota recall scandal), there are plenty of signs that the land of the rising sun is losing its grip on the US car market. But is the slide inexorable, or can Japan rally to regain its dominance? Here, via Automotive News [sub], is a graphic that projects the product cadence of Japan’s “big three” over model-years 2012-2015… does it give you hope for Japan, or do you see signs of continued struggles?
Fiat’s 500 is a tough vehicle to figure out. On the one hand, it’s got a lot of intangibles going for it: it’s got huge fashion appeal, it gets far better fuel economy than anything in the Chrysler Group’s US stable and it grabs attention like nobody’s business. On the other hand: the sales stink. Chrysler expected to move some 50k Cinquecentos this year, but after three full months of sales (only 500 special editions were sold in March), the 500 had moved fewer than 5,000 units through June (4,944, to be precise). Fiat has admitted that the 500 launch is “a tiny bit behind schedule,” and the first official ad (which I count as another positive intangible) is only just going live this week. It’s miles better than the glorified tourist bureau video that has since disappeared from Youtube, but can it motivate 45,000 hip young (at heart) things to buy into the next small thing? We’ll certainly be watching July sales with interest. But if Fiat doesn’t get the ball rolling towards New Beetle-style iconic status in the US, the 500 could go the way of the Smart: iconic, but for all the wrong reasons (namely a challenging combination of price and size).
AlixPartners, the consulting firm that led GM’s reorganization efforts, has put the perennial optimism of auto industry analysts on notice, introducing its 2011 Automotive Outlook by arguing
The AlixPartners 2011 Automotive Outlook finds that while automakers and suppliers have seen profits bounce back handsomely – North American original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) posted $12.5 billion in 2010 profit on a net margin of 4.6% and North American suppliers reaped $8.2 billion on a net margin of 4.3% – no one should be tempted into thinking that things are now back to “normal,” or at least the normal defined by the consumer-incentive-induced sales levels of the past. In sync with its past annual auto studies, AlixPartners continues to predict that U.S. auto sales will climb slower, and to a lower peak, than many others are predicting. Specifically, the firm estimates U.S. auto sales will reach just 12.7 million units this year and only 13.6 million in 2012.
This is a tough moment for us: on the one hand, pessimistic economic forecasts don’t make anybody happy… on the other hand, the AlixPartner outlook is a significant validation of TTAC’s longtime bearishness. So rather than either moping or self-congratulating, let’s just take a look at why AlixPartners is so gloomy about the near-term outlook.
(Read More…)
Despite the domestic auto industry’s bailout-fueled turnaround, there are a few challenges that the Detroit-based firms have yet to overcome: sales on the West Coast for one, and sales to young people for another. TrueCar tackled the scope of this second issue, digging through millions of transactions to determine the favored cars of both Generation X (ages 28-45) and elderly buyers (65 and up). The results? Buick is still tops with the old folks, despite aiming for younger buyers with new, European-derived products. Lincoln, Cadillac, Chrysler and GMC and Chevrolet round out the top six before the first import brand, Porsche, arrives at number seven. There are few surprises by model choice as well, with the Town Car, Lucerne, DTS, CTS, STS, Azera, Impala, LaCrosse, MKZ and Avalon making the top ten old-folks cars. On the Gen X side of things, import brands still top the list, with VW, Land Rover, Audi, and Mazda taking the top spots, and Jeep taking the top domestic spot at number five. By model, the Routan, M3, Quest, Armada, and Oddyssey take the top five spots for Gen X buyers, with only the Chevy Aveo representing the domestic brands in the top ten. cars with Gen X buyers.
What does it all mean? The domestic manufacturers are still most attractive to traditional, older buyers… spelling long-term issues for the domestic brands. GM, Ford and Chrysler still face huge challenges in attracting younger buyers, and will need to address this problem aggressively if they want to build on their short-term turnaround.
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