In contrast to rapid changes in the compact and midsized segments, the subcompact segment is moving along established trendlines. Kia’s Soul has completely overtaken this segment’s previous champ, but that’s been a long time coming. A new Accent is arriving at dealers, and that model’s starting to take off… in fact, if there’s news here, it’s that the Accent appears to be outselling the segment’s next-freshest offering, the Ford Fiesta. Otherwise, Aveo and Rio are dropping off ahead of their replacement by new models, the 500 is getting closer to MINI’s monthly volume, and Mazda2 can’t quite get past the Cube The YTD chart doesn’t show too many changes either… but watch this space as the A/B segment heats up with new models later this year.

The debate over July’s sales results is going to heat up again with this infographic showing the fleet and retail results for the major US brands. And one thing is clear: Toyota and Honda’s tumble from the top was not disguised by a huge bump in fleet sales. Though retail volume at the top two Japanese brands dropped by between 20 and 30 percent, both cut way back on fleet sales as well… which is a highly recommendable move when supply problems hit. After all, you have to squeeze every last penny out of the remaining volume until inventory levels even out. On the other hand, both Ford and GM cranked up fleet volume last month, with Ford’s fleet percentage leaping to an industry-leading 31%. That gives Ford the lowest retail percentage of all major automakers, with GM only five points ahead. Chrysler was the only other major OEM under 90% for the month, at 84%. So those who argue that domestics are taking over the industry need to dial back their expectations a bit for the moment: between the supply issues and the fleet picture, it’s too early to determine what exactly is going on in the industry. But if the domestics trim back on fleet and Toyota and Honda continue to lose volume over the month of August, then we can start talking about the kinds of seismic shifts that some are already reading in the sales numbers.

Porsche was spared a major embarrassment – by the Chinese. According to an emailed memo, the boys in Zuffenhausen sold 10,722 vehicles worldwide in July, that’s 4 percent below the 11,169 units sold in July 2010. It could have been worse. (Read More…)

A  few days ago, you saw GM’s Dan Akerson start his slow climbdown from the 13 to 13.5 million cars GM’s crystal ball reflects as sold in the U.S. by the end of 2011. He told a German paper that “there is the danger of a new recession.” Asked whether he would still stick with his lofty projection, Akerson answered: “Currently, we maintain the forecast, but we think it will be the lower range of our prognosis.” Akerson receives cover for his tactical retreat from Edmunds, which today headlines:“2011 Sales Will Be Close To 12.9 Million.” Pretty close to the GM forecast, no? So what’s the problem? Wait until you read the rest of the story ….

(Read More…)

Domestics rule the compact crossover segment this month, with the ageless Escape standing above the crowd (albeit without weighting for fleet sales). Again, Honda and Toyota show bigger drops than Nissan’s Rogue, reinforcing the perception that Nissan has done a remarkable job recovering from the tsunami. Intriguingly, Jeep’s Patriot is essentially flat year-over-year, while the Compass has bounced back on the strength of its redesign… but only to about the Patriot’s rate. Meanwhile, Hyundai has yet to find the disruptive success in this segment that it’s enjoying in the C- and D-sedan segments.

(Read More…)

If you answered in the negative when we asked if Fiat would be able to make its 50k unit sales goal in the US this year, you were right. Executives for the Italian brand tell Automotive News [sub] that

“We lost the whole first quarter”… If the store openings had occurred as planned, the sales target would’ve been achieved… Now, that will “probably not” occur this year.

This is no real surprise. Thanks to the slow rollout, Fiat has sold only 7,982 units so far this year… but even with sales at their current levels (3,083 units in July), sales would only barely top 36k units in a 12-month period. Of course, next year the 500 is joined by a higher-performance Abarth version (no, not that one) as well as a hideously expensive electric version, so sales should continue to climb. On the other hand, the brand is hoping for 100k units next year, or about double the MINI brand’s 12-month average… so Fiat may well be looking at another missed sales goal anyway.

With signs of change appearing in the midsized segment, I thought we would look at our archived sales results for the “Big Six” sedan nameplates in hopes of some historic context. And here it is: competitive convergence is turning what used to be Toyota and Honda’s wading pool into a bloody knife fight.

(Read More…)

About a month ago, TTAC’s Steve Lang hipped readers to the fact that used car prices had grown like crazy, and that the time to sell that old car had come. Now the mainstream media is starting to wake up and smell the 30-weight, and the wires are flooding in with stories of used car prices gone wild. The LAT reports that Kelley Blue Book values have risen an average of 16% per year in the 2008-2011 period. Autotrader saw 13 of their top-20 CPO models add at least a grand to their prices in the last month alone. And  Bloomberg reports that 2011 BMW Dreiers and M3s now cost only $34 per month more than year-old models, and that new Corvettes can actually be had for $12 per month less than year-old models according to Edmunds.com data. Considering an Acura TL? New models are typically $18 less per month than year-old versions. So what’s going on?

New lease sales fell to 1.96 million in 2008 and 1.13 million in 2009, according to Manheim. Lease originations that averaged 2.78 million during the previous 10 years dried up as lenders such as GMAC Inc. and Chrysler Financial Corp. withdrew financing offers.

Leased vehicles’ input to used-vehicle supply will be 2.08 million units this year, a 40 percent drop from 2002 levels, according to Manheim. Off-lease volumes will keep declining through at least next year, to 1.53 million, Manheim says.

Sales to rental fleets, which fell to 1.13 million vehicles in 2009 from more than 2 million in 2006, may not exceed 1.5 million until after this year, according to Manheim. The 2011 contribution to used-vehicle supply from rental fleets will be about 1.4 million vehicles, a 30 percent drop from 2005 levels.

But here’s the real question: how long can this last?

(Read More…)

Like yesterday’s Compact chart, today’s look at the midsized (D) segment shows either profound changes afoot or a lingering tsunami hangover, depending on how you look at it. Accord, Prius and Camry were the biggest year-over-year losers last month, although the Malibu also lost a small amount of volume as well. Nissan, which has clearly weathered the tsunami aftermath better than its competition, took advantage and added to the Altima’s volume. But once again, the changes look less profound when you look at YTD numbers, with Camry remaining on top by a healthy margin, Altima and Fusion close behind, and Honda falling just out of the top three. Meanwhile Chrysler’s midsizers just barely beat the Prius… in combined volume. Yikes! [NB: Optima’s July 2010 volume (which is invisible in the codger-friendly chart above) was 1,857]

From the Detroit News all the way to the Miami Herald, you will receive the good news that “China’s July auto sales are up 6.7 percent.” They are not. According to data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), automobile production in China rose 1.26 percent in July to 1,306,100. Sales rose 2.18 percent to 1,275,300. In case you don’t read Chinese, China Daily provides a translation. The numerical crime was perpetrated again by the Associated Press. The AP is a repeat offender. (Read More…)

Chevy’s Cruze dominated the compact segment last month, racking up a 7k unit advantage over its next-closest rival, the Corolla. Corolla and Civic were the two biggest losers year-over-year, as tsunami related supply issues hold them back. Civic even dropped to sixth in its class, while Jetta (which could almost be classified as midsized) and Elantra snuck past it and towards the falling Corolla. Mazda3 beat Sentra, which in turn beat the Forte… so all in all, a strange month for a class that seemed to be lacking a real leader in the early months of this year. But if you look at the YTD numbers in the second chart (see gallery below, sadly not in “old codger-friendly” format), you’ll find that the Corolla is hanging onto first (for the moment), Civic is about 6k units behind the second-place Cruze and Elantra in fourth place. So there’s some familiarity left in the class that was once ruled by the Corolla and Civic… but don’t expect it to last too much longer, unless a lot of people are simply waiting for their Japanese brands to get restocked. In any case, the competition has never been more fierce.

With GM’s share price currently hovering below $25, well under its $33 IPO price, The General is holding its second annual Global Business Conference in hopes of encouraging investors the world over to buy into its turnaround. A webcast is currently streaming over at the GM Investor Relations website, but the key points are available in slides available in PDF here. The presentation involves nearly every level of GM’s business, so listening in and reading the entire PDF is going to be the best way to make sense of what GM is trying to communicate… but if you just want an overview, check out the gallery below for a few hand-picked slides, illustrating some of the more important points.

Honda, long a fixture in the upper reaches of rolling YTD sales charts, has been well and properly knocked off its pedestal by now, with its best-seller, the Accord, just barely making it into the top ten at number nine. Civic came in at 11th, while CR-V was 14th. And Honda’s not the only long-reigning volume champ that’son its way down: compared to last year, Toyota’s Corolla and Camry have shed about eight percent of their volume, and right below them the Altima and Fusion are both growing at around 17.5%. By the end of this month, Toyota could easily have only one vehicle in the top five (and could even be knocked out altogether), Honda could be completely out of the top ten, and Ford, Chevy and Nissan could be dominating the upper reaches of our YTD chart. Ch-ch-ch-changes…

[UPDATE: Old Codger-friendly version in gallery below]

You know it’s time to say “Toto, I don’t think we’re in traditional journalism any more” when fanboys get better access than industry rags. In a story picked up by Automotive News [sub], myfocuselectric.com commenter whitgallman showed the auto media what can be done if you just send a few emails… as long as you make it clear that you are only interested in buying a car, not embarrassing the program. Because then, instead of languishing in some disinterested inbox, your emails actually draw a response, like this from David Finnegan, Electrified Vehicles Marketing Manager at Ford:

For the first few months of production, we will be concentrating on California and New York. Our dealers in those areas will be the first to have their retail orders scheduled and receive the Focus electric. We will be rolling out to the remainder of our initial markets starting in spring 2012.

Well, that was news to Automotive News [sub], which had been told (along with everyone else) that the Focus Electric was supposed to launch in “late 2011” in 19 US markets. So what happens to Focus EV intenders in Chicago, Detroit and Seattle (among others)? Per AN [sub]:

As for the rest of the country’s markets, no word yet from Ford, so the best advice is to be patient.

Uh-huh. We’ll send some emails ourselves, but we aren’t holding our breath for Ford to admit that, say, buying the Focus EV wholesale from a supplier may not have been a great idea. Or that there are problems with the batteries (again, hypothetically). But there I go thinking like a “traditional journalist” again…

GM China and its joint ventures sold 173,398 vehicles in China during the month of July, “as Shanghai GM and GM’s Buick, Chevrolet and Cadillac brands all set sales records for the month,” GM’s press release says. Nonetheless, GM’s China sales in July were down 1.8 percent from the same month last year. Now how did that happen? Why should you care? Why should anybody care? (Read More…)