As any sales-watcher knows, volume isn’t everything. Fleet-retail mixes, incentive spending and transaction prices are all important considerations for putting volume numbers into context. As usual, we’ve assembled Edmunds’ True Cost Of Incentives index as well as TrueCar’s Transaction Pricing and Incentive Spending forecasts, for a complete picture of these important metrics… and after the jump, we’ve added a few notes on the discrepancies between the two firms’ numbers.

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Throughout the month, TTAC tries to go back to recent sales numbers in hopes of providing greater context for the industry’s day-to-day decisions. On the first of each month, however, we get so overwhelmed with volume numbers, we thought we’d take this opportunity to explore the price-volume frontier. Inspired by recent rumors of a 120k unit production goal for the $41k Volt and the ensuing discussion of the BMW 3 Series’ unique position on the price-volume frontier, we thought we’d feel around the data for this mythical plateau. Sadly our unsophisticated graphing software (and overworked editor) didn’t allow for a more full exploration of high-priced vehicles reaching near-mass-market volumes, so we put together a “basket” of higher-priced, strong-selling models. And though we obviously cherry-picked a little, we did use four manufacturers to indicate an approximate “delta” between price (base MSRP) and volume (2010 numbers). Are there outliers to our “price-volume frontier”? Possibly. Did we leave out the most interesting area of the graph (the mass-market vehicles) Definitely. But in the process we have hopefully proved that selling over 100k units of a vehicle costing $40k or more is not a goal to be taken lightly.

Hyundai’s sales were up 22 percent last month, driven by huge growth for Sonata (13,261 units) and Elantra (9,659 units). But, rather than spend the whole press release [PDF here] trumpeting sales data alone, Hyundai upped the transparency bar on its competitors by announcing it would

begin reporting monthly sales-weighted Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) results to provide journalists, policy-makers and consumers with additional data to promote more meaningful dialogue on the feasibility of future fuel efficiency targets for the industry…

For January 2011, Hyundai’s sales-weighted CAFE level was 34.7 miles per gallon, with a model year mix for the month of 86 percent 2011 and 14 percent 2010 model year vehicles. This is a significant increase from Hyundai’s most recent official CAFE level for the 2009 model year of 31.7 mpg.

By publishing both its fleet mix (12%) and CAFE average, Hyundai is proving that marketing is a million times easier when the facts fit the message. At 34.7 CAFE, Hyundai is a single MPG away from complying with the 35.5 MPG 2016 proposed CAFE standard, and just a whisker away from meeting its corporate commitment to meet 35 MPG fleet by 2015. Which is all fine and dandy, but as a blog that’s forever digging for obscure information about the car industry, we’re even more excited about Hyundai’s decision to take the lead on transparency. TTAC encourages all automakers to release both sales-weighted CAFE numbers and full fleet-mix numbers (and any other relevant data) with their monthly sales reports. The truth, as we say around here, must out! [Hyundai and Kia sales breakouts after the jump]

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TTAC’s monthly sales coverage rolls on with a look at Chrysler, which saw sales rise 22 percent last month. The volume increase, driven by the Jeep, Dodge and Ram brands, was the second bit of good news Chrysler announced this week, following up its water-into-wine 2010 financial results. Like Ford, Chrysler Group’s problems remain with its “luxury” brand, Chrysler. The eponymous brand fell 7%, although a 45% increase in T%C volume helped mask deeper drops in other models like 300 (1,329 units), PT Cruiser (342 units) and 200/Sebring (1,482 units). Though 200 and 300 sales should increase due to their current production changeovers, Chrysler still has a lot of work to do to make the Chrysler brand relevant again. Jeep, on the other hand, is rolling, with sales up 47%. Grand Cherokee led the way again, up 130% to 7,612 units, Wrangler and Liberty added over 30% each, and Patriot was up 75%. Dodge saw Caliber, Avenger, Journey and Charger lose volume last month, but big increases in Caravan, Durango and Challenger helped bring the brand up 22%. On the truck side, Ram was up 22%, while Dakota dropped to 823 units.

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Ford Motor Company sold 127,317 units last month for a 13.3% increase in volume, despite weak a performance from its Lincoln brand and a 95% drop in volume from the dead Mercury brand. Lincoln effectively has two viable products in its portfolio, the MKZ (1,574 units) and the MKX (1,546 units)… nothing else moved more than 1k units last month. And of all its products, only MKZ saw a year-over-year sales increase last month, up 17.5%. With Mercury gone (but for a few hundred Grand Marquis sales), Lincoln needs to get its act together before Ford becomes a one-brand outfit. Still, If Ford did cut back to a single brand, the Blue Oval would still be in decent shape. Ford-branded vehicle sales jumped 21 percent to 121,511 units last month. Focus fell slightly f(13.2%) to 9,014 units, but Fiesta is coming on strong with 4,270 units. Fusion saw a modest sales increase, as the midsized contender moved to 14,346 units. Taurus and Mustang fell by 23% and 33% respectively.  Edge and Escape were up 42.8% and 30% respectively, and the new Explorer looks to be a hit with sales jumping 71% to 7,351. F-Series kept growing as well, with 35,806 units sold, and Transit Connect rose to above 2k monthly units while Ranger slid 31%.

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January 2011, US Light Vehicle Sales

Automaker	Jan. 2011	Jan. 2010	Pct. chng.	1 month 2011	1 month 2010	Pct. chng.
BMW Group	18,683	15,436	21%	18,683	15,436	21%
Chrysler Group LLC	70,118	57,143	23%	70,118	57,143	23%
Daimler AG	17,636	15,443	14%	17,636	15,443	14%
Ford Motor Co.	126,981	116,277	9%	126,981	116,277	9%
General Motors	178,897	146,315	22%	178,897	146,315	22%
Honda	76,269	67,479	13%	76,269	67,479	13%
Hyundai Group	65,003	52,626	24%	65,003	52,626	24%
Jaguar Land Rover	3,206	2,589	24%	3,206	2,589	24%
Maserati	114	101	13%	114	101	13%
Mazda	14,267	15,694	-9%	14,267	15,694	-9%
Mitsubishi	5,714	4,170	37%	5,714	4,170	37%
Nissan	71,847	62,572	15%	71,847	62,572	15%
Porsche	2,150	1,786	20%	2,150	1,786	20%
Saab Cars North America	658	–	-%	658	–	-%
Subaru	18,858	15,611	21%	18,858	15,611	21%
Suzuki	2,562	2,040	26%	2,562	2,040	26%
Toyota	115,856	98,796	17%	115,856	98,796	17%
Volkswagen	26,295	24,614	7%	26,295	24,614	7%
Volvo Cars North America	4,276	–	-%	4,276	–	-%
Other (estimate)	298	294	1%	298	294	1%
TOTAL	819,688	698,986	17%	819,688	698,986	17%

TTAC’s on top of all of the monthly sales news, as the industry records its first month of sales in the new year. (Data courtesy Automotive News [sub] ). Ford and GM, the first automakers to report, show solid gains, seemingly confirming analyst estimates of a 12.4m unit SAAR this month. But don’t read too much into the trend, as Reuters reports that auto sales momentum stalled in the final weeks of the month, prompting JD Power to lower its SAAR expectation from 12.2m units to “between 11.5m and 12m.” According to a JD Power spokesman,

the sudden slowdown in sales in January could reflect both the impact in winter storms and the absence of new sales incentives from major automakers. Those kinds of discounts, including cash-back offers, were down 12 percent in January from December

Check back regularly as TTAC unravels January’s sales performance from all of the automakers.

Another month, another raft of sales data… and another month of solid sales growth for General Motors. Buick continued its industry-leading growth pace, rising 32% over January 2010 with 13,269 units sold. Enclave sales rose slightly, and Lucerne got a big boost, but LaCrosse encountered its first signs of slowing, as sales dropped 11%, falling below 4k monthly units.  Cadillac did Buick one better, jumping by 49 percent year-over-year, moving 12,850 units. CTS boomed by over 70%, joining the SRX above the 4k monthly mark. The Escalades showed strong growth as well, though at lower volume levels, as did the aging STS and DTS sedans. GMC sales grew by 29%, moving 27,658 units as Savanna, Sierra and Terrain recorded growth of more than 40%. Yukon and Yukon XL combined for over 3,500 units, and Acadia stalled at 5 percent growth. Chevy, meanwhile, saw 19% growth, although with Impala, Aveo, Express and HHR leading volume gains, much of that may well have come from fleet sales. Strong performances from Equinox and Traverse give more cause for retail optimism. Overall, GM’s retail sales were up 36 percent according to the firm, and fleet sales fell 7 percent.

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Despite fears of building overcapacity in the Chinese market, GM is still very much enamored of its chances in the Middle Kingdom. Terry Johnsson, vice president of the automaker’s China operations tells Reuters

We sold everything we could build in 2010 and the same holds true in 2011. We could actually sell more than we will be able to (build) if we are not capacity constrained. We are actually short of capacity. The total business is going to go up by the size of a single plant. It’s not just about this year. We’ll have to look about a real rapid increase in our capacity

After all, the Chinese market may have slowed to a “mere” 10-15%, but GM’s sales were up by 20% last year as foreign automakers solidified their hold on the Chinese market. And even if the Chinese market does hit a wall (crazier things have happened), China’s desire to boost exports of its domestically-produced cars will help justify further investments in Chinese production capacity. Johnsson adds that GM will a “substantial amount” of its made-in-China Chevy Sail to emerging markets over the coming years, a decision that further justifies an investment in Chinese capacity. Only 5k Sails were exported last year (to Chile), but exports should rise to 20k units this year. Still, even those increased numbers pale in comparison to Chevy’s 125,625 Sails sold in China last year. But GM is already looking at shipping knock-down kits of the Sail abroad as it looks to increase Sail exports beyond even the 20k units planned for next year. After all, if The General has to bump UAW workers into the second tier to build subcompact cars in the US, production of low-cost cars like the Sail will have to stay in China for the forseeable future.

Japanese domestic new car sales (excluding minivehicles) have been down 21.5 percent in January, the Japan Automobile Dealers Association told The Nikkei [sub]. 187,154 new cars changed hands. This does not surprise anybody in Japan. Some even see a silver lining. (Read More…)

Well, the problem isn’t so much that compact cars aren’t youthful… it’s that the buyers of compact cars are surprisingly un-youthful. The C-Segment, compact cars in the class of Honda’s Civic, Toyota’s Corolla, Ford’s Focus and Chevy’s Cruze, are typically thought of as “Kid Cars,” or first-time automobile purchases for younger buyers. That stereotype may still be true, but if it is, the young buyers aren’t actually buying the cars. This week, Ford’s executive in charge of launching compact cars like the forthcoming 2012 Focus turned my perspective on the C-Segment upside down by telling me that Ford’s research showed that the average age of a compact car buyer was… get this… 57 years old. Given that TTAC has questioned the viability of the Buick brand for having an average buyer age in the low-to-mid 60s, it’s worth considering the reasons for the surprising age of C-segment buyers. And while we’re at it, let’s throw another stereotype on the fire, namely the old chestnut that compact cars are “basic transportation” for folks who can’t afford a car in the next class up. According to Ford’s data, 50 percent of C-Segment buyers come from households making $75,000 per year or more.

I wish TTAC had more of this kind of demographic data to share, so we could track changes in compact car-buying demography over time, but it seems fairly clear that the compact class is attracting older, more affluent buyers than it once did. So we want to know: how do you interpret these trends? Will older, richer buyers continue to downsize, or is this a short-term phenomenon driven by gas prices and economic recession? Meanwhile, what impact will this shifting demography have on compact cars themselves?

Again, China’s vaunted export machine received a black eye: China imported more cars in 2010 than it exported. Of the 18.27 million cars China produced in2010, a pittance of 2.98 percent left the country according to statistics released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) via China Autoweb. (Read More…)

Another indicator that the Chinese car market is not about to collapse, as projected (hoped?) by some: Daimler is guiding towards robust sales in January. “I hope that we will see double digit gains again in January,” Mercedes sales Chief Joachim Schmidt told Reuters. With the month nearly over, executives won’t “hope” what they don’t already know. And what does that have to do with China? (Read More…)

Now that most of the large car companies have supplied their numbers, TTAC has compiled its annual table of the world’s largest automakers. In doing so, we have attempted to come as close as possible to the methodology used in the official OICA list, which will be published some time this summer. Here is the 2009 version as a reference. And here are TTAC’s Top Ten of 2010: (Read More…)

The oft predicted collapse of the Chinese market does not seem to happen. GM is the canary in the Chinese coalmine, and January, the month before the Lunar New Year festivities, is a key selling month. So goes GM, so goes China, so goes January, so goes the year. This time, January was especially critical: Many had predicted that the cancellation of tax incentives for sub 1.6 liter cars, that went in effect on January 1, would have serious pull-forward repercussions. Not as far as GM is concerned. (Read More…)

Regular TTAC readers know that there’s more to a successful performance from an automaker than pure volume alone. Average transaction prices, market share, and incentives all play a role in translating production numbers into profits. Luckily, our pals at TrueCar  have broken all that lovely data down, and they’ve sent over the numbers behind Ford’s recently-announced $8.3b profit, the Blue Oval’s best performance in over a decade. And, as you can imagine, a performance like that requires not only a hefty increase in volume (up nearly 20% on the year) but also improvements in market share (up 1.23%), and transaction price. Yes, incentives stayed stronger than they perhaps needed to be, but they now make up a lower percentage of the average transaction price. And that, ladies and gents, is how you make a $5.4b pre-tax operating profit in the US market alone [Q4 and historical data after the jump].

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